Jim Bowden gives Offseason grades

[Balta1701]

It comes down to Williams not valuing the Red Sox system as much as the Red Sox do. I have no problem with how the Santos trade was executed.

That doesn't matter. What you do then is you put the call in to the Red Sox, then you call the Blue Jays back and say "I have this offer from the Red Sox, will you give us Molina plus this other 19 year old" so that you stock up more. Put the pressure on Toronto to walk away, then call them back and give them the last offer. Basic game theory 101.

[Marty34]

Not certain about that. H does rely on the slider as a real good out pitch, but he doesn't have a bad fastball either. How many real great pitches do one or two ining relief pitchers have anyway? Most of those I have folowed have good pitches to set up the one great out pitch, or someone like Rivera (in a class of his own obviously) has basically one great pitch and control.

 

I just feel that relievers that rely on a dominant slider as an out pitch are a good bet to have a short shelf life of effectiveness due to the stress that pitch puts on the arm.

[TaylorStSox]

I'm with Marty. I started to see some major red flags with Santos. First, his slider, while dominant isn't all that repeatable and he doesn't consistently command it well. When it's flat, most of us can hit it. Also, he has a good fastball, but doesn't really believe in it. During pressure situations, he's slider, slider, slider. Lastly, his arm strength scares me. Will he ever develop enough to be a great closer?

 

Sergio might be a top tier closer at some point, but I wouldn't bet on it. The trade shocked me, but the more I thought about it, the more I liked it. If you have the opportunity to get a real nice prospect for a closer, you gotta take it.

[Balta1701]

I'm with Marty. I started to see some major red flags with Santos. First, his slider, while dominant isn't all that repeatable and he doesn't consistently command it well. When it's flat, most of us can hit it. Also, he has a good fastball, but doesn't really believe in it. During pressure situations, he's slider, slider, slider. Lastly, his arm strength scares me. Will he ever develop enough to be a great closer?

This is how the catchers were calling the game though. And Santos's problem wasn't really that his slider was flat, it was that people would be able to lay off of it if he couldn't get ahead of people beforehand.

 

AJ loved the setup with Sergio throwing the fastball to get ahead of hitters and then only use the slider as an out pitch. When Flowers took over some games, we saw Flowers use the Slider much more heavily and stop relying on the fastball to get ahead. In fact, especially in the first half of the season, Sergio's slider was just nails...his control on it was almost spectacular. That pretty much covered the whole season too, he was vastly better than the rest of the league at getting the slider down in the zone and ridiculous at getting people to swing and miss at it.

[TaylorStSox]

This is how the catchers were calling the game though. And Santos's problem wasn't really that his slider was flat, it was that people would be able to lay off of it if he couldn't get ahead of people beforehand.

 

AJ loved the setup with Sergio throwing the fastball to get ahead of hitters and then only use the slider as an out pitch. When Flowers took over some games, we saw Flowers use the Slider much more heavily and stop relying on the fastball to get ahead. In fact, especially in the first half of the season, Sergio's slider was just nails...his control on it was almost spectacular. That pretty much covered the whole season too, he was vastly better than the rest of the league at getting the slider down in the zone and ridiculous at getting people to swing and miss at it.

Stats... Meh.

[elrockinMT]

This is how the catchers were calling the game though. And Santos's problem wasn't really that his slider was flat, it was that people would be able to lay off of it if he couldn't get ahead of people beforehand.

 

AJ loved the setup with Sergio throwing the fastball to get ahead of hitters and then only use the slider as an out pitch. When Flowers took over some games, we saw Flowers use the Slider much more heavily and stop relying on the fastball to get ahead. In fact, especially in the first half of the season, Sergio's slider was just nails...his control on it was almost spectacular. That pretty much covered the whole season too, he was vastly better than the rest of the league at getting the slider down in the zone and ridiculous at getting people to swing and miss at it.

 

 

AJ showed his experience

[elrockinMT]

I just feel that relievers that rely on a dominant slider as an out pitch are a good bet to have a short shelf life of effectiveness due to the stress that pitch puts on the arm.

 

 

Fair enough that you see issues with Santos, but I still think he is a real good relief pitcher and I am not certain the injury you predict would happen. I think AJ handled Sergio the best by limitig that great slider to what the circumstance directed

[Balta1701]

AJ showed his experience

Actually, when Flowers came in and started just hammering people with the Slider, I kinda liked it. People couldn't hit it.

 

The numbers kinda back me up here. AJ went on the disabled list in August, missed about 3 weeks, from August 11 to September 2. In August, Sergio gave up a .297 OPS (.097 slugging) and a split OPS of -15 (where 100 is league-average).

 

Yes, Flowers kept going in September even with AJ back, and htat was Santos's terrible month, and correlation isn't causation, but when Flowers got in there and started clearly using the slider as a setup pitch in addition to as a strikeout pitch, Santos put up unbelievable numbers.

[Dick Allen]

We can nitpick Santos but the fact is Molina has 22 IP above A ball, and has less than 300 career innings under his belt. Being a regular in the White Sox rotation seems a ways away. Last year was the first time he topped 100 IP. To me this seems like the Elton Brand/Tyson Chandler trade only a smaller stake. Jerry Krause was hoping Chandler became a 20/10 guy. Brand was a 20/10 guy. Santos was a pretty good reliever. I'm thinking KW would take Molina becoming a pretty good releiver.

[Balta1701]

I'm thinking KW would take Molina becoming a pretty good releiver.

Unless he becomes a pretty good reliever because other guys (Sale, Humber, Castro, Danks, Stewart, etc.) fill out the rotation to the point he's not needed...Molina becoming a pretty good reliever would be a major, major failure. That'd be a Hudson/Jackson level failure IMO...basically, you'd be getting exactly waht you already have in Santos, except you'd be delaying it by 2-3 years, and opening up a hole that doesn't need to be opened up now.

 

I'd call that a fireable offense again. Molina needs to be starting in the bigs sometime around the start of 2014, and setbacks reflect directly onto the guy(s) who pulled the trigger. That deal only makes sense if you're getting a really good starting pitcher.

[Marty34]

Santos was a pretty good reliever. I'm thinking KW would take Molina becoming a pretty good releiver.

 

Maybe he doesn't lose the trade if Molina becomes a pretty good reliever, but Molina is being counted on to be much more than that by Williams in this rebuilding. Williams also said we will probably see Molina at some point in 2012

[Dick Allen]

Unless he becomes a pretty good reliever because other guys (Sale, Humber, Castro, Danks, Stewart, etc.) fill out the rotation to the point he's not needed...Molina becoming a pretty good reliever would be a major, major failure. That'd be a Hudson/Jackson level failure IMO...basically, you'd be getting exactly waht you already have in Santos, except you'd be delaying it by 2-3 years, and opening up a hole that doesn't need to be opened up now.

 

I'd call that a fireable offense again. Molina needs to be starting in the bigs sometime around the start of 2014, and setbacks reflect directly onto the guy(s) who pulled the trigger. That deal only makes sense if you're getting a really good starting pitcher.

I agree, but the more closely you look at Molina's "experience", the more you would think, its going to be a while before he could remain in a major league rotation for an entire season. It will be interesting to see how his workload last year affects him this season. I hope he's not Dexter Carter II, although he does seem to have a little better walk rate, but I don't know if its command or low level hitters.

Edited February 19, 2012 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

I agree, but the more closely you look at Molina's "experience", the more you would think, its going to be a while before he could remain in a major league rotation for an entire season. It will be interesting to see how his workload last year affects him this season. I hope he's not Dexter Carter II.

Like i said, I'd really like to wait until the 2nd half of 2013 for them to even consider having him make an MLB debut, and that's if everything goes right. Preferable would be that he's a candidate for the rotation in 2014, so that he gets a full year in AA this year and then at least a good portion of the year next year in AAA to prove he's ready to move up.

 

That also gives his arm 1.5 more years to build strength before he gets pushed into facing big league hitters, which would be another plus.

 

Of course, that path would be at odds with what the Sox have typically done with guys, which is pushing them as rapidly as possible up to the bigs, and it's also somethign that coudl hurt the chances of the Sox winning the next 2 years (which they shouldn't be caring about right now anyway, except for the people insisting that this isn't a rebuilding year).

[Dick Allen]

Maybe he doesn't lose the trade if Molina becomes a pretty good reliever, but Molina is being counted on to be much more than that by Williams in this rebuilding. Williams also said we will probably see Molina at some point in 2012

Which is scary. He has 22 IP above A ball and now the pressure is on to pitch in the majors leagues. Let the guy develop. He has 292 career IP.

[DirtySox]

Which is scary. He has 22 IP above A ball and now the pressure is on to pitch in the majors leagues. Let the guy develop. He has 292 career IP.

 

This. It's ridiculous that people are okay with it other than perhaps a September call-up. Hopefully Kenny is just blowing smoke. Let these prospects develop in the minors. No need to continue to rush prospects, especially in a rebuilding year.

[Balta1701]

This. It's ridiculous that people are okay with it other than perhaps a September call-up. Hopefully Kenny is just blowing smoke. Let these prospects develop in the minors. No need to continue to rush prospects, especially in a rebuilding year.

Calling him up this year would be exactly what you'd do if you were all-in, trying to compete this year. Some people here continue to insist we are, which is why they're going with that. I hope you're right and KW was blowing smoke to try to cut into the "Rebuilding year' anger.

[Marty34]

This. It's ridiculous that people are okay with it other than perhaps a September call-up. Hopefully Kenny is just blowing smoke. Let these prospects develop in the minors. No need to continue to rush prospects, especially in a rebuilding year.

 

Maybe part of the reason Molina was acquired is because Williams feels he will be ready to be in the rotation by 2013. You have to trust the GM's judgment.

 

[Marty34]

Which is scary. He has 22 IP above A ball and now the pressure is on to pitch in the majors leagues. Let the guy develop. He has 292 career IP.

 

Williams doesn't have the luxury to wait due to mistakes in previous years.

[Balta1701]

Williams doesn't have the luxury to wait due to mistakes in previous years.

Then his resignation should have been accepted last offseason, because taking time now to develop and rebuild is a must.

 

Pushing Molina upwards hard right now to satisfy the "Compete now or fire KW"! brigade is lunacy.

[Marty34]

Then his resignation should have been accepted last offseason, because taking time now to develop and rebuild is a must.

 

Pushing Molina upwards hard right now to satisfy the "Compete now or fire KW"! brigade is lunacy.

 

By April of 2014 which is when you want to see Molina in the rotation he will be 25 and have 500+ minor league innings. Mark Buehrle by comparison had 208 total innings in the minors (none above AA) and was 21 when he made his debut.

[Balta1701]

By April of 2014 which is when you want to see Molina in the rotation he will be 25 and have 500+ minor league innings. Mark Buehrle by comparison had 208 total innings in the minors (none above AA) and was 21 when he made his debut.

John Danks had 426 minor league innings when he came up, and even then, John Danks struggled some when he came up and really wore down in August to the point that he was shut down for a couple weeks. And that team wound up being terrible and at the bottom of the division, so it gave him an opportunity to actually do that struggling.

 

500 minor league innings, especially for a guy who didn't pitch until he was 19 and already in the minors, is not by any means unreasonable. 600 minor league innings might not be bad.

[Marty34]

John Danks had 426 minor league innings when he came up, and even then, John Danks struggled some when he came up and really wore down in August to the point that he was shut down for a couple weeks. And that team wound up being terrible and at the bottom of the division, so it gave him an opportunity to actually do that struggling.

 

500 minor league innings, especially for a guy who didn't pitch until he was 19 and already in the minors, is not by any means unreasonable. 600 minor league innings might not be bad.

 

So there is no right/wrong answer.

[Balta1701]

So there is no right/wrong answer.

Bringing up Molina this year is the wrong answer. Bringing up Molina before the middle of next year is probably the wrong answer.

 

But again, that requires admitting that we're not going all-in this year and that we have to look towards the future...including with the job status of the people in the front office.

[Dick Allen]

Bringing up Molina this year is the wrong answer. Bringing up Molina before the middle of next year is probably the wrong answer.

 

But again, that requires admitting that we're not going all-in this year and that we have to look towards the future...including with the job status of the people in the front office.

If he blows through AA with zero problem, a September call up could be in order, but I agree with you. This is a guy like Santos who was originally signed as a position player. His lack of experience on the mound isn't just with his lack of minor league innings. Calling him up too soon is setting him up for disaster.

 

I will wish no ill will towards Sergio Santos, he seems like a great guy, but IMO, the best thing that could happen to Molina is for Santos to struggle. The one thing about Sergio is he was only a few pitches away from being an All Star quality closer. There are a lot of guys who can probably say that, but if somehow he figures out how to make those pitches and in June or July has great numbers, the spotlight and pressure on Molina to be something quickly just grows.

[Balta1701]

If he blows through AA with zero problem, a September call up could be in order, but I agree with you. This is a guy like Santos who was originally signed as a position player. His lack of experience on the mound isn't just with his lack of minor league innings. Calling him up too soon is setting him up for disaster.

 

I will wish no ill will towards Sergio Santos, he seems like a great guy, but IMO, the best thing that could happen to Molina is for Santos to struggle. The one thing about Sergio is he was only a few pitches away from being an All Star quality closer. There are a lot of guys who can probably say that, but if somehow he figures out how to make those pitches and in June or July has great numbers, the spotlight and pressure on Molina to be something quickly just grows.

I hear exactly what you're saying about Santos. I just really hope that the org ignores it. These guys need to feel secure in their jobs, to the point where they can say "Whatever Santos does, we have the guy we wanted, now we need to give him time to develop".

 

"We need to give him what he needs to develop" needs to be the most important saying of the season. We need to answer every question with that. Even "What is the bullpen sports bar serving this week?". If everything goes right we can see where we are, but the most important thing we can do is look at those 10 or so young guys we have on the roster and give them what they need to develop.