JR "Don't write us off"

[southsider2k5]

http://www.csnchicago.com/blog/whitesox-ta...tm_medium=email

 

Reinsdorf to Sox fans: 'Don’t write us off'

February 28, 2012, 5:13 pm

 

If Adam Dunn's 2011 was an aberration, the Sox could easily contend in 2012. (US Presswire)

 

chuck garfien headshot CHUCK GARFIEN

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GLENDALE, Ariz. -- While the sun might be shining at the White Sox spring training facility, the forecast for what lies ahead in 2012 has been quite different.

 

Ask most fans or media about this White Sox team and they see storm clouds pushing in, with a third or fourth place finish in the division.

 

But on the day that Paul Konerko made news by saying 2012 “could be a very successful year without making the playoffs,” leave it to the Chairman to send a message to White Sox fans to not count them out.

 

“Don’t write us off,” Jerry Reinsdorf said in an interview Tuesday with Comcast SportsNet. “Nobody thought we’d win the World Series in 2005, but we did. There are years when we think we’re great and we’re bad. I mean the funny thing about this game is that you can’t figure it out.”

 

How else do you explain Adam Dunn, for instance, seeing his home run total drop in one season from 38 to 11? His RBIs go from 103 to 42? Or his batting average drop more than 100 points from .260 to .159?

 

All you have is the game’s history, in which Reinsdorf is an expert.

 

“If you take a look at what used to be the Baseball Encyclopedia, and you look at the stats of the players who have played eight, 10, 12 years, if they have a really great year they almost always come back to what they were. If they have a bad year, they almost always come back to what they were. Aberrational years are just that. Babe Ruth had a year here or there where he had just awful years, and then he would bounce back and be Babe Ruth the next year.”

 

I checked it out. Reinsdorf is right.

 

In 1922 and 1925, Ruth had two of the worst seasons of his career, mainly due to injuries. But even while healthy, he wasn’t the same player in those bad seasons. Take 1925. In 98 games, Ruth had 25 homers, 66 RBIs, and batted .290. Not exactly Ruthian numbers. The next season, however, Ruth played in 152 games, finished with 47 homers, 146 RBIs and raised his batting average 87 points to .372.

 

If Dunn can get close to his lifetime average of 38/95/.243, through simple inertia, a lot more runs will cross the plate.

 

Tuesday, Reinsdorf was in the clubhouse as new manager Robin Ventura addressed the entire team for the very first time. When I asked the Chairman about Ventura’s speech, he joked, “it wasn’t anything terribly inspiring,” then added, “I’m convinced that Robin is just going to be a wonderful manager, and just a leader of men.”

 

Did Reinsdorf have any words for the team?

 

“All the staff people introduced themselves and said what they did, so I introduced myself, and just said, ‘I sign the checks.’”

 

So does the man who signs the checks think the White Sox will surprise people this season?

 

“Yes,” he said. “We would have won the division in my opinion last year if everybody just had normal average year. That goes the same this year. If people have their normal average year, we should be able to contend.”

[Big Hurtin]

Translation - Go buy some tickets.

[Texsox]

He's right. Normal years from some key guys will have this team in the hunt come September.

 

I'm not holding my breath or planning my vacation around being in Chicago for a home stand like in every year since 1995.

[hogan873]

There are a ton of ifs here. If Dunn has a career normal year. If Rios rebounds to respectable numbers. If Peavy is healthy. If Sale takes to being a starter. If Viciedo...

 

If most (or all) of those ifs pans out, sure the Sox could contend. But what are the chances? Who knows. What were the chances that Dunn would have such a terrible year, Rios would Suck, Peavy would get hurt, and Ozzie would lose interest in managing? But all of that happened, so again who knows.

 

I for one am looking forward to the season, and I'll be cheering, swearing, complaining, and cheering again.

[klaus kinski]

Our fans, and ticket buyers, are usually "wait & see" when it comes to the team. But I have not experienced the indifference regarding the team in all my years of associating with Sox fans. It's only fitting that what the owner says comes on a day of PK's comment, and a day when club level seats are being offered in April at huge discounts, including a Red Sox game, which is really unusual.

 

[TaylorStSox]

It is tax season.

[Jake]

Enjoy waiting for a year without "if's" everybody

 

This is baseball, there will always be "if's"

[Steve9347]

Translation - Go buy some tickets.

 

[elrockinMT]

We will hear a lot of this. What else can anyone say?

[The Ginger Kid]

Translation - Go buy some tickets.

You havin' a laugh?

[Milkman delivers]

Our fans, and ticket buyers, are usually "wait & see" when it comes to the team. But I have not experienced the indifference regarding the team in all my years of associating with Sox fans. It's only fitting that what the owner says comes on a day of PK's comment, and a day when club level seats are being offered in April at huge discounts, including a Red Sox game, which is really unusual.

 

How much?

[Big Hurtin]

You havin' a laugh?

 

 

I don't get it.

[sunofgold]

It is true. Go back and read the predictions for the 2005 White Sox. You never know what is going to happen is baseball. There is some talent on this team. We aren't starting Brandon McCarthy on opening day and following him with Bartolo Colon.

Edited February 29, 2012 by sunofgold

[greg775]

I kind of liked Jerry's quotes in that story.

We might suck, but I can't argue with his reasoning of how the team conceivably could be good.

[sunofgold]

Also in 2005 almost all of the experts predicted the Twins were going to win the division. Understandable b/c the Twins did look the best on paper. Kinda like the Tigers this year.

 

[Chicago White Sox]

I kind of liked Jerry's quotes in that story.

We might suck, but I can't argue with his reasoning of how the team conceivably could be good.

As long as you have starting pitching, you always have a chance. I have no idea how our staff will ultimately turn out, but a rotation of Danks, Peavy, Floyd, Sale, & Humber has a chance to be very, very good. That's why I think it's foolish to completely rule out the Sox next year.

[greg775]

As long as you have starting pitching, you always have a chance. I have no idea how our staff will ultimately turn out, but a rotation of Danks, Peavy, Floyd, Sale, & Humber has a chance to be very, very good. That's why I think it's foolish to completely rule out the Sox next year.

 

Amen.

I also hope our bullpen gives the starters a chance to pick up some wins.

The Sox bullpen has pissed me off for 2 straight seasons now.

[kwolf68]

Comparisons to 2005 are laughable. There was a clear plan and direction in 2005. While a lot of those players/transactions in 2005 came 'out of nowhere' to produce at least there was reasoning behind those players.

 

Although there may be a good reason behind the distorted direction of the White Sox. Perhaps it was Kenny's idea all along to rebuild and after he undersold the only desired assets the Sox had, he found that no one wanted the rest of our players who he clearly wanted to market.

 

It will take a blow-up year from the pitching staff to be remotely competitive. Anything less, the team will struggle to stay out of last. Jerry doesn't know what's getting ready to hit him. Pinning hopes on freaking Alex Rios? That in itself is a terrible sign. I hope I am wrong and generally I love spring when baseball gets started, but this is the most cynical I have EVER been about the Sox. Some of the bad years in the late 1980s I wasn't as intuned to the workings of the Sox as now, so I always felt positive because I didn't know how bad a couple of those teams really were.

Edited March 2, 2012 by kwolf68

[witesoxfan]

It is true. Go back and read the predictions for the 2005 White Sox. You never know what is going to happen is baseball. There is some talent on this team. We aren't starting Brandon McCarthy on opening day and following him with Bartolo Colon.

 

OK

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...amp;mode=linear

 

Looks to me lke 60-70% of the posters predicted the White Sox to win the division.

[knightni]

OK

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...amp;mode=linear

 

Looks to me lke 60-70% of the posters predicted the White Sox to win the division.

I did a very good job with my pre season predictions that year.

 

6 of 8 playoff teams right.

 

http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?s=...st&p=634199

 

Versus the real final standings.

 

http://www.shrpsports.com/mlb/stand/2005finaldiv.htm

 

[caulfield12]

But nationally, most experts were picking the Twins, because they'd won the division 3 years in a row...it was the logical choice, and we'd jettisoned Ordonez, Lee and Valentin for WHO?

 

 

 

On the Sox, are they better with Dayan Viciedo in left field and Alex Rios in right — or with Viciedo in Charlotte and Rios on the bench? What happens if center fielder Alejandro De Aza regresses? Adam Dunn's fixed, right? Can Chris Sale and Jake Peavy combine for more than 50 starts? And who's the closer again?

 

Cubs and Sox questions outnumber answers. Oh, yeah, can either Sveum or Robin Ventura manage?

 

It promises to be fun finding out. It could be frustrating too.

 

When Sveum addressed the idea of Soriano as a leadoff hitter by saying, "We don't have the bona fide guys at any position in the order,'' he became the latest Chicago baseball figure to inadvertently foretell the upcoming summer of nothing. Paul Konerko beat Sveum to it by correctly saying the Sox can have a successful season without making the playoffs.

 

Both teams view the season through the same prism because, according to their top executives, neither is built to win in 2012. Pay now, playoffs later.

 

That might sound like a lousy way to build a marketing campaign, but it represents the smartest approach to build a perennial winner. Teams committed to player development as much as the Cubs and Sox find themselves will endure growing pains. At least both teams appear to have their eyes wide open — not necessarily the way I recommend viewing all 324 of their games.

 

One thing that stood out from splitting last week between camps in Glendale and Mesa was a common sense of inevitability. Optimism didn't spring eternal as much as realism. Professionalism permeated the desert air. Catching the Tigers or Cardinals came up in conversation as much as creating a new mindset. Not even Commissioner Bud Selig adding a wild-card team in each league produced much of a we-can-do-this buzz.

 

Unsolicited, several Sox people at Camelback Ranch offered how refreshing it was to focus on baseball again instead of outside nonsense. One answered a question about the differences under Ventura by cupping his hand to his ear and asking with a smile, "Do you hear that? Silence."

 

The strongest vibe at a serious Cubs camp surrounded young prospects such as Rizzo, Jackson and Matt Szczur as well as the confidence in Epstein and Jed Hoyer to replenish the farm system one shrewd move at a time.

 

The process will take time, essentially giving 2012 the feel of a six-month-long extended spring training.

 

It has been 13 years since the Cubs and Sox each won 75 or fewer games in the same season — the Sox were 75-86 and the Cubs 67-95.

 

Brace yourself, Chicago baseball fans, to party this summer like it's 1999.

 

[email protected]

Twitter @DavidHaugh

 

Let's see here. Sveum's idea is to hit the team's oldest player, and the one who's known to hustle the least of maybe any player in the entire league leadoff. Talk about a managerial brainstorm.

 

I'd have hoped the Cubs would have hired a manager which has a true feel for the game, and not one who lives off stats, especially when the stats show failures from the past. The true quality managers don't play by the book only. They have gut feelings, which they're not afraid to implement. Sveum, i don't think so much.

michaelc at 10:42 AM March 04, 2012

 

PECOTA projects White Sox for 78-84 and Cubs for 74-88. But the records are irrelevant. Making good progress on rebuilding is relevant.

 

But experts have raised a very good question about Kenny and the W. Sox. Is he all in toward rebuilding, as he should be. I think not. There is no way AJP should still be the starting catcher over Tyler Flowers on a rebuilding-commited team.

MikePomatto at 10:22 AM March 04, 2012

 

So the premise of questions the Sox have entering this season is to compare them to an idea to have Soriano bat first? This is the epitome of spurious coorelation. Whether to put Viciedo in right, or even in the lineup, is a legitimiate baseball question. The latter is typically asinine aspects that define the cubs.

Edited March 5, 2012 by caulfield12

[Real]

Oh Jerry.

[witesoxfan]

But nationally, most experts were picking the Twins, because they'd won the division 3 years in a row...it was the logical choice, and we'd jettisoned Ordonez, Lee and Valentin for WHO?

 

That's not the point, the Sox hadn't made a sexy signing all offseason, but they addressed an absolute ton of needs and filled several holes during the offseason. They brought in a good hitting catcher, a seemingly capable 2B, had Uribe penciled in at SS after he was coming off a huge year, had a new RFer who most hoped was going to atleast somewhat replicate Ordonez's production, had Rowand coming off a fantastic season, had a leadoff hitter who could get on base and steal bases, had a rotation that was set in stone going into the season, and had the pieces towards a very good bullpen. Uribe and Rowand fell off considerably, but the rotation was better than anybody could have ever imagined, Hermanson, Cotts, and Politte were all stupendous, and Jenks came up and dominated as well. There was quite a bit of luck and flukiness to that entire season, as there naturally will be, but it doesn't change the fact that most on here thought that the team was going to be pretty solid at the very least.

 

Seriously, the biggest question marks entering that season included who the backup catcher was going to be, who the backup infielder(s) were going to be, and who was going to be a backup OFer. They were not very important holes to fill and they found the right guys to fill them anyways.

 

 

But experts have raised a very good question about Kenny and the W. Sox. Is he all in toward rebuilding, as he should be. I think not. There is no way AJP should still be the starting catcher over Tyler Flowers on a rebuilding-commited team.

MikePomatto at 10:22 AM March 04, 2012

 

This is absurd too. My assumption throughout this entire process is that those two are going to have a pretty generous split of playing time, with AJ getting anywhere between 80-100 games and Flowers anywhere between 60-80 games (with the possibility of some time at 1B and DH open for Flowers as well). And, if you want to win a bit, having the more experienced catcher playing quite a bit is going to be good too.

 

On top of all of that, assuming the Sox are out of the race at the trade deadline, and the Sox can coerce Pierzynski into accepting a trade, he could absolutely be a valuable piece to a team who loses a catcher or needs an upgrade anyways.

 

[bigruss]

On top of all of that, assuming the Sox are out of the race at the trade deadline, and the Sox can coerce Pierzynski into accepting a trade, he could absolutely be a valuable piece to a team who loses a catcher or needs an upgrade anyways.

I can't agree with this. We have seemingly said this like the past 3 seasons about AJ, and the market has just been cold on him. I think there was only 1 interested team in him last season, and even then we'd have to eat almost the whole contract.

 

Teams shy away from AJ, not only because of his personality but because he tends to not even be an upgrade over backup catchers when defense is included and his salary for this season will be $6mm, which is a lot for a below average catcher.

[caulfield12]

We'll see how much AJ is worth at the deadline....if it will be just a salary dump, saving us $2-3 million, or if we can actually get a decent prospect or two back.

 

As far as 2005 goes, nobody knew anything about Iguchi, only that he had good stats in the Japanese leagues but that KW had only scouted him via video. (He could just have easily ended up like Nishioka or Kaz Matsui).

 

Pods was coming off a down year (certainly compared to his rookie campaign with the Brewers), and Dye from an injury.

 

El Duque was a huge question mark, especially at that $6.5 million salary line.

 

They were replacing about 40% of the roster, and there were also inevitable questions about Thomas' health as well as Everett's "combustibility."

 

All things considered, it would have been just as easy to be pessimistic (because of the chemistry and roster turnover issue) as optimistic, as we had very strong teams in 2003 and 2004 but were turning over our operating model almost completely at that time, besides the starting pitching.

 

And Contreras was also a huge question mark as well.