Super Tuesday Thread

[NorthSideSox72]

I know we have a general GOP nomination thread, but it is getting pretty clogged up, and this is the single biggest day of the Primary season. So use this thread for posting results and polls, and discussing what the results mean for the GOP on Super Tuesday.

 

[StrangeSox]

Today is Monday.

[Balta1701]

I'm thinking that after tonight the nomination will be declared "All but wrapped up officially" much as McCain's win was well before he actually had enough delegates compiled. And thus, we can at least stop paying attention to this show for a while.

 

That said, I'll probably be casting my vote for little Ricky later today.

[Balta1701]

Gingrich takes GA, Santorum has Ok and TN, but Ohio still up for grabs...exit polling showed a near tie but Little Ricky seems to be outperforming the exit polls.

[Soxbadger]

Gingrich and Santorum gotta be kicking themselves over the Virginia debacle.

[caulfield12]

Santorum going to make this a race again.

 

Things would really be interesting if Paul or Gingrich were to drop out, particularly Newt.

 

He's got to do well in AL and MS. He (Gingrich) lost to Romney in Tennessee and it looks like he might lose in OK as well.

 

It's so interesting to follow. If Santorum would have been able to keep his foot out of his mouth, he probably would have taken both MI and OH. Then the race truly would have been up for grabs.

 

As it stands now, Santorum has about a 25% chance, at best.

 

The story will be that MASS and VA were sure things (lowest turnout ever in Virginia) for Romney, but that Santorum outperformed him in the most contested state (Ohio) and that Romney is still super weak, especially in the South, with evangelicals, Tea Party members and "true" conservatives. That has to be worrying the GOP, no matter how many party leaders come out and endorse Romney...that the base will be suppressed and independents will be too turned off by all the negatives.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Gingrich and Santorum gotta be kicking themselves over the Virginia debacle.

 

 

Au contraire, not having to contest VA and Massachusetts (no way to beat Romney there anyway, although it would have been the ultimate embarassment, it's not in Santorum's sweet spot electorate-wise)...is actually helping Santorum, because it has put all the attention on Ohio, and Romney was predicted to win a close one coming into tonight and it looks like that bet was off and everything will be up in the air again.

 

If Romney can't do well in the South...and is struggling with those battleground states like MI, OH, PA and Illinois, the GOP might have to step in somehow.

 

It will also be interesting to see what happens with ND and Alaska. If Paul can finally come up with a win somehow.

 

 

Santorum can also play the "David vs. Goliath" storyline that he has almost no money or budget for campaign organization and couldn't register in 100% of Ohio, Virginia, etc. In the end, it might help Romney get more delegates, but this GOP race has always been about public perception.

 

Romney has trailed Gingrich twice, Cain, Perry and Santorum.

 

That's an awful lot of uncertainty.

 

 

Edited March 7, 2012 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Au contraire, not having to contest VA and Massachusetts (no way to beat Romney there anyway, although it would have been the ultimate embarassment, it's not in Santorum's sweet spot electorate-wise)...is actually helping Santorum, because it has put all the attention on Ohio, and Romney was predicted to win a close one coming into tonight and it looks like that bet was off and everything will be up in the air again.

 

If Romney can't do well in the South...and is struggling with those battleground states like MI, OH, PA and Illinois, the GOP might have to step in somehow.

 

It will also be interesting to see what happens with ND and Alaska. If Paul can finally come up with a win somehow.

Getting zero delegates there makes this night a blowout even if little Ricky takes Ohio, because the race is about delegates.

[caulfield12]

Getting zero delegates there makes this night a blowout even if little Ricky takes Ohio, because the race is about delegates.

 

 

Clearly Romney wins the most delegates, but Santorum wins the PR war and the media can keep this horse race going.

Romney will lose at least four states, two of his victories were basically uncontested (one his home state)...and Michigan was another form of "home state" advantage for Romney. That's not counting N.D. or AK, which could both go against Romney, as well as Wyoming.

 

He'll win Idaho, but nobody cares about Idaho, since it's 33% Mormon and the media expects a win.

 

 

 

But it's just as much about how damaged the candidate is...and Romney's reaching a critical point where Santorum is ready to go on and fight for the next 2-3 months, same with Gingrich, even.

 

If we were talking about 2008, I would agree that was mostly about delegates, because Obama and Clinton had very very few philosophical differences. Everyone knew the party would unite in the end for the general, whereas this GOP race has practically fractured the party and the social topics side is a losing one for the GOP.

 

They are risking alienating all independents/moderates, women, Latinos and young people.

 

You can't win a general election when it SHOULD be a focus on the economy, and Romney's plan for creating jobs is just about as ephemeral as fog or mist.

Edited March 7, 2012 by caulfield12

[Soxbadger]

What do you mean no way to beat Romney in VA?

 

Paul is getting 40% of the vote, you dont think Santorum may have gotten 1 district? According to Wiki, this is how the VA delegates work:

 

The three super delegates are unbound. 33 delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. The other 13 are awarded to the candidate who wins a majority statewide, or allocated proportionally if no one gets majority. [3]

 

 

So 33 were by congressional district, I think Santorum may have been able to win a few of those.

[Balta1701]

But it's just as much about how damaged the candidate is...and Romney's reaching a critical point where Santorum is ready to go on and fight for the next 2-3 months, same with Gingrich, even.

 

If we were talking about 2008, I would agree that was mostly about delegates, because Obama and Clinton had very very few philosophical differences. Everyone knew the party would unite in the end for the general, whereas this GOP race has practically fractured the party and the social topics side is a losing one for the GOP.

 

They are risking alienating all independents/moderates, women, Latinos and young people.

 

You can't win a general election when it SHOULD be a focus on the economy, and Romney's plan for creating jobs is just about as ephemeral as fog or mist.

Mitt rMoney will come out of tonight with a lead of several hundred delegates, and he has so much money no one will come close to making up that gap. The only thing that could happen in terms of him not winnig is him not getting a full majority. And even that remains unlikely with the size of his lead.

 

But please, let rMoney get as damaged as possible. That's why I voted Ricky.

 

And women, Latinos, and the young would not be voting for the Republican anyway.

[caulfield12]

North Dakota also is now looking likely for Santorum.

 

Maybe Paul wins AK in the late night?

[caulfield12]

What do you mean no way to beat Romney in VA?

 

Paul is getting 40% of the vote, you dont think Santorum may have gotten 1 district? According to Wiki, this is how the VA delegates work:

 

The three super delegates are unbound. 33 delegates are awarded on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district. The other 13 are awarded to the candidate who wins a majority statewide, or allocated proportionally if no one gets majority. [3]

 

 

So 33 were by congressional district, I think Santorum may have been able to win a few of those.

 

I meant him not competing there, while not gaining any delegates, the media doesn't focus at all on that state.

Same with Massachusetts.

[Soxbadger]

The media doesnt matter, delegate counts matter.

 

This type of mistake is how you lose an election. Imagine how different today would have felt if Romney was slipping in VA to Santorum, etc. Instead, Romney gets free delegates. Being a good candidate doesnt matter, being electable doesnt matter, delegate counts matter.

 

For the price of a 30 second commercial, you could have a team of people making sure you are on every ballot. Think about how stupid that is.

Edited March 7, 2012 by Soxbadger

[Balta1701]

Ohio lead for Ricky shrinking, down to 1.5% with about 50% reported.

[Soxbadger]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/

 

In Ohio Romney is winning in the more urban areas.

[Reddy]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/

 

In Ohio Romney is winning in the more urban areas.

of course he is. what we're watching tonight is the exact same thing that happens in the general if you substitute Romney for the democratic candidate.

[Balta1701]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/elections/

 

In Ohio Romney is winning in the more urban areas.

Of course, he always wins the people with te highest incomes and they don't live in the rural areas.

[Soxbadger]

I think you missed the point of my post.

 

Romney is winning in areas that would be generally considered Democratic, in my opinion, not a great strategy for a general election.

[caulfield12]

With SuperPACs now, what is the motivation for Santorum or Gingrich to leave the race?

 

It's like 3-4 more months of everyday publicity for their careers...especially positioning Santorum for 2016 to be the "Huckabee" conservative darling.

 

Gingrich and Romney hate each other.

 

Paul and Romney have a bro-mance.

 

Sure, the math gets harder and harder for Santorum, but the media would love to have this campaign go on indefinitely, there have been so many good soundbites, twists and turns, and numerous gaffes.

[caulfield12]

1.2% of the vote right now is for "other"....11,568 votes, with Santorum's narrowing margin about 2500 votes at 11 pm EST. Who are these people who are voting other?

 

 

 

 

Ex-Rep. Martin Frost

Attorney, former Democratic congressman :

 

 

There is an Army expression that describes the state of the GOP race: SNAFU (situation normal all fouled up).

 

 

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Martha McKenna

Democratic media consultant, McKenna Pihlaja :

 

 

Even if Romney eventually becomes the nominee, the Republican primary process has been hard on him. He is spending millions of dollars communicating with voters, but his numbers keep dropping. Independents are increasingly soured on Romney.

 

It is hard to imagine that Santorum or Gingrich can upset Romney to win the GOP nomination, but this process is not serving Romney well. He's spending huge money in battleground states that will decide the election in November and his popularity keeps dropping. Romney may win the battle, but it looks like he's losing the war.

 

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Christopher Hahn

Democratic consultant; FOX News contributor :

 

 

Here's the question Newt and Rick should answer. If you can't figure out ballot rules, how can you be trusted to figure out our military policy in the Middle East?

 

Whatever happens in Ohio Rick can't take all the delegates because he failed to file paperwork. In Virginia only Romney and Paul qualified. Tonight would have been a different story had Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich been serious well organized candidates. They're not. Organization is what separates a serious presidential campaign from a book tour or road show.

 

It's hard to see any path to the nomination for anyone other than Romney.

Edited March 7, 2012 by caulfield12

[Soxbadger]

Tonight would have been a different story had Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich been serious well organized candidates. They're not. Organization is what separates a serious presidential campaign from a book tour or road show.

 

You can get that type of insight on Soxtalk

[mr_genius]

Not sure this has been mentioned, Dennis Kucinich loses in Dem primary.

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73713.html

[caulfield12]

Not sure this has been mentioned, Dennis Kucinich loses in Dem primary.

 

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0312/73713.html

 

A Super Tuesday primary night that was supposed to bring clarity to the Republican nomination fight is on track to leave things nearly as muddled as ever, as the 10 states voting across the country scattered every which way and the most important battleground, Ohio, remained too close to call..

 

Mitt Romney entered the day’s contests tantalizingly close to a secure hold on the GOP nomination, and is still likely to run up his lead in the delegate count. If the current numbers hold in the Buckeye State, Romney may well deal a symbolic blow to his opponents by putting the key swing state in his column.

 

Romney appears, however, to have missed his opportunity to put to rest doubts about his strength as a candidate and claim the status of presumptive 2012 nominee.

 

While his challengers will have failed again to break open the race, Romney is headed on the same path to the Tampa convention as ever: a grinding march fueled by financial and organizational advantages, rather than personal political force and the sincere affections of the Republican base.

 

Alexander Burns, politico.com