Can the White Sox succeed in an environment

[caulfield12]

where young players are overhyped/overvalued and yet our cupboard is nearly barren?

 

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writ...ball/index.html

 

 

 

When reading that article, it made me think of J4L and what his arguments would have been with Verducci. On the other hand, we certainly can't spend our way to success, as the $127 million payroll last year proved, especially when three of the biggest financial bets or risks don't pay off.

 

 

[ScottyDo]

Two things:

 

1) They can succeed if their drafting markedly improves. Drafting gets you these premium chips at no cost, if your talent evaluation is good enough. As the hype increases, the value in your system inflates with an influx of "free" talent every year.

 

2) Whenever one type of player is overvalued, another must be comparatively undervalued. Obviously the undervalued group is not prospects. It's definitely not top tier free agents who are all getting contracts that will certainly be crippling relatively soon. It's not foreign players, since you have to pay Japamese teams tons of money just to talk to people and the Cuban players are getting many millions simply as prospects. That leaves either veteran free agents or mid-tier ones. Smart spending on players that didn't excel elsewhere for reasons you think are avoidable in Chicago is the name of the game. Low-cost gambles like Jermaine Dye are our best shot at smartly recovering. I would even say the Dunn signing was somewhat below market at the time, considering what the Tigers just paid for their DH (I know, the age factor and retrospect hurt that one, but I do think it was a smart signing).

 

Also, once our bad contracts are off the books, perhaps we can afford to splurge on an excessively-priced free agent or two. However, drafting and clipping proverbial free agent coupons is the way I think we ought to proceed.

[Balta1701]

If prospects and particularly young pitching prospects are hugely overvalued...then that implies to me that the best way to get return on them is to trade young pitching to return moderately expensive but cost-controlled for a while talent...which is, I think, sorta what we've been doing.

[ScottyDo]

If prospects and particularly young pitching prospects are hugely overvalued...then that implies to me that the best way to get return on them is to trade young pitching to return moderately expensive but cost-controlled for a while talent...which is, I think, sorta what we've been doing.

That might also be why some considered this offseason so bad, and why we didn't offload everyone on the books. If a rebuild means trading for young pitching, obviously you're not gonna extract that much from a market that overvalues pitching prospects. Similarly, it may just not be worth it to offload every player for such an overinflated return. If we had the luxury of waiting till the "prospect bubble" burst, that would have been smart, but unfortunately it doesn't work that way.

 

I just don't know what type of return people were expecting this offseason given the price of pitching.

[Balta1701]

That might also be why some considered this offseason so bad, and why we didn't offload everyone on the books. If a rebuild means trading for young pitching, obviously you're not gonna extract that much from a market that overvalues pitching prospects. Similarly, it may just not be worth it to offload every player for such an overinflated return. If we had the luxury of waiting till the "prospect bubble" burst, that would have been smart, but unfortunately it doesn't work that way.

 

I just don't know what type of return people were expecting this offseason given the price of pitching.

It's plausible that the "Prospect bubble" will never burst.

[caulfield12]

One of those supposed market inefficiencies Beane has pointed out was the overvaluing of closers (not ones named Rivera, Nathan in his prime, Hoffman in his prime, etc.) by the rest of MLB. Especially ones that throw 95+.

 

A prime example would be the Koch/Foulke deal.

 

Whether Molina actually pans out, it's far from certain. Half of that trade will obviously be judged on what happens with Santos as well. If he totally flops in Toronto, a lot of Sox fans will still be wondering why we gave him that long-term extension in the first place. Did KW always have in mind to dump him once he was signed to a "team-friendly" deal? Probably not. No GM is that good of a poker player.

 

We tried to exploit the Cuban one but that window's closed now with Cespedes and Soler.

 

To an extent, we do have something of an advantage with the Venezuelan market due to Paddy, but that's closing quickly as well.

 

As mentioned over and over again, getting all those rehabbing (Dye/Hermanson/Pods), unknown (Iguchi), bad reputation (AJ, Everett), over the hill (El Duque) veterans, but, most importantly, mid-priced or mid-tier veterans, was the smartest thing KW ever did in his GM career. None of those contracts broke the bank or taxed the payroll, like Dunn/Peavy/Rios, and, to a lesser extent, Javy Vazquez.

 

Swisher also appeared to have a friendly contract when we acquired him...albeit one that rapidly escalated the last couple of seasons of the deal.

 

KW has had those 2 "runs" of success, pre-2005 and then pre-2008 with Ramirez, Danks, Carlos Quentin, Gavin Floyd and later Beckham and Viciedo.

 

He's overdue to hit on another run of good luck if things hold true to form, about every 3-4 years, a new cycle of incoming talent.

Edited March 6, 2012 by caulfield12

[klaus kinski]

Getting like the NFL-draft well and fill gaps with free agency.

[SI1020]

where young players are overhyped/overvalued and yet our cupboard is nearly barren?

 

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writ...ball/index.html

 

 

 

When reading that article, it made me think of J4L and what his arguments would have been with Verducci. On the other hand, we certainly can't spend our way to success, as the $127 million payroll last year proved, especially when three of the biggest financial bets or risks don't pay off.

I was disappointed in the article and me for being dumb enough to click on it. I'm so tired of homage to all things named Beane and James. They did not reinvent the wheel. By the way, how much mention did Zito, Hudson and Mulder get in that Academy Award winning movie? As for the Sox, not much on the roster and even less on the farm. It looks like at least several lean years ahead and KW may have played out his string. Not much on the farm and everybody hoarding prospects means the Sox have to draft better and KW needs to remember how to find those diamonds in the rough. When he goes for the big name he usually fails.

 

[Milkman delivers]

I was disappointed in the article and me for being dumb enough to click on it. I'm so tired of homage to all things named Beane and James. They did not reinvent the wheel. By the way, how much mention did Zito, Hudson and Mulder get in that Academy Award winning movie? As for the Sox, not much on the roster and even less on the farm. It looks like at least several lean years ahead and KW may have played out his string. Not much on the farm and everybody hoarding prospects means the Sox have to draft better and KW needs to remember how to find those diamonds in the rough. When he goes for the big name he usually fails.

 

It won no Oscars.

[elrockinMT]

It won no Oscars.

 

 

Yep, but that Angelina sure looked good

[caulfield12]

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/kawakami/2012...-and-much-more/

 

 

She's getting older....when Mr. and Mrs. Smith came out, she was super hot. Now, a bit less so.