BP candidates for regression

[southsider2k5]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=16160

 

the rest are at the link

 

4. Paul Konerko

For the last two years, I’ve watched a Paul Konerko get on top of just about every pitch thrown his way, or at least it’s often seemed that way. When I first started going to White Sox games on a regular basis before the 2010 season, Konerko was supposed to be in decline. He homered in each of the first two games that season and hasn’t really slowed down since. His last two seasons have, in fact, been his best two offensive performances. That sets him apart; 22 players have put up a better combined OPS for age-34 and 35 seasons than Konerko’s 941 mark the last two years seasons. If there was any visible sign that Konerko was about to regress, I certainly didn’t see it last season, but it’s got to happen, right?

 

Yet you can only rob from Father Time for so long, and it seems very unlikely that Konerko can post a third straight career season at this stage of his playing days. Of those aforementioned 22 players, 10 of them OPS’d at 900 or better at age 36. Those players were a mix of surefire Hall of Famers and products of an offense-inflated era: Babe Ruth, Tris Speaker, Barry Bonds, Earl Averill, Charlie Gehringer, Chipper Jones, Manny Ramirez, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and Edgar Martinez. Does Konerko fit in that group? I’m guessing no. Konerko will still be the White Sox’ best hitter, a dangerous man with the bat in his hands and an admirable clubhouse spokesman. I just don’t think he can pull off a three-peat with these mid-30s career campaigns. If that happens, his overall value takes a serious hit because he’s a statue at first base and quite probably the slowest big-league baserunner I’ve seen in the last five years. —Bradford Doolittle

[NorthSideSox72]

I think most everyone figures he is likely to fall back at least a little bit, maybe more.

 

Do they have a list of likely comeback candidates? Because this team really only had PK overperforming last year, a couple guys around their average years (Alexei, Floyd), and then a whole lot of guys who underperformed. That is really the one reason why I think this team might beat expectations.

[daa84]

I think most everyone figures he is likely to fall back at least a little bit, maybe more.

 

Do they have a list of likely comeback candidates? Because this team really only had PK overperforming last year, a couple guys around their average years (Alexei, Floyd), and then a whole lot of guys who underperformed. That is really the one reason why I think this team might beat expectations.

they had a breakout players list...no sox were on it

[Balta1701]

I'm through with betting on Konerko looking old.

[NorthSideSox72]

they had a breakout players list...no sox were on it

Interesting.

 

This team has so many question marks, and so many holes... and yet, I've never seen a Sox team coming off a season where so many of its players performed below their averages. Most of them, really. And I've gotta think that the odds are, some significant number of those are likely to improve.

 

[flavum]

Interesting.

 

This team has so many question marks, and so many holes... and yet, I've never seen a Sox team coming off a season where so many of its players performed below their averages. Most of them, really. And I've gotta think that the odds are, some significant number of those are likely to improve.

 

With Ozzie and Buehrle leaving, and trading Santos and Quentin, I think there's a lot of "piling on" by the media. They assume that a mediocre team with some players that had bad years in 2011, just got worse--and on top of it, hired a guy that has never managed.

 

I don't think it's as simple as that to declare the 2012 a lost cause. Could they suck? Sure. Could they surprise? Absolutely.

 

There's just too many stat geeks and snarky jagweeds that want to figure out what's going to happen in baseball before it happens, and state it as fact in February and March.

 

For now, I'm treating this season, as a fan, that they can compete. If/when they prove they can't, fine, make some more trades and don't make the situation worse.

[caulfield12]

And other than Lillibridge and Humber, and Santos if you want to claim he overachieved....nobody came close to outproducing their career lines.

 

Maybe DeAza too, a lot are expecting something less than the numbers he put up.

[NorthSideSox72]

And other than Lillibridge and Humber, and Santos if you want to claim he overachieved....nobody came close to outproducing their career lines.

 

Maybe DeAza too, a lot are expecting something less than the numbers he put up.

I was more thinking about starting position players, starting pitchers and relievers who pitched most of the year. Bench guys, sample size issues come into play. De Aza wasn't around for long and Lillibridge wasn't exactly playing a ton.

 

You are right on Humber though, I left him off. Konerko and Humber overachieved. Among players still with the team, who else that got significant playing or pitching time outperformed their norms significantly? No one.

 

Alexei, Ohman and Crain, all performed around career averages.

 

That leaves these returning players who underperformed, a little or a lot: Danks, Thornton, Floyd, Peavy, Rios, Beckham, AJP (maybe), Dunn

 

So, 2 guys over (one of which had never pitched a full season, so who knows), 3 guys at (and 2 of those are bullpen arms), 8 guys under, and then the guys you just don't know yet (Morel, Viciedo, Sale, De Aza, Reed). I am NOT saying this means everything, it may mean little, but I do think it is an interesting indicator.

 

[elrockinMT]

I'm through with betting on Konerko looking old.

 

 

It is amazing isn't it that they keep bringing it up as a prediction - the decline of PK- and he shows them wrong. But, they keep it up and I suppose some year it might happen and they will call themselves experts and great judges of MLB talent.

[Balta1701]

It is amazing isn't it that they keep bringing it up as a prediction - the decline of PK- and he shows them wrong. But, they keep it up and I suppose some year it might happen and they will call themselves experts and great judges of MLB talent.

Eventually it's got to happen, so eventually they'll be right...but I'm done expecting it to happen.

[chetkincaid]

I think Baseball Prospectus is a candidate for regression.

[caulfield12]

I was more thinking about starting position players, starting pitchers and relievers who pitched most of the year. Bench guys, sample size issues come into play. De Aza wasn't around for long and Lillibridge wasn't exactly playing a ton.

 

You are right on Humber though, I left him off. Konerko and Humber overachieved. Among players still with the team, who else that got significant playing or pitching time outperformed their norms significantly? No one.

 

Alexei, Ohman and Crain, all performed around career averages.

 

That leaves these returning players who underperformed, a little or a lot: Danks, Thornton, Floyd, Peavy, Rios, Beckham, AJP (maybe), Dunn

 

So, 2 guys over (one of which had never pitched a full season, so who knows), 3 guys at (and 2 of those are bullpen arms), 8 guys under, and then the guys you just don't know yet (Morel, Viciedo, Sale, De Aza, Reed). I am NOT saying this means everything, it may mean little, but I do think it is an interesting indicator.

 

 

Agreed, just not sure how much more we could expect out of either Konerko or AJP at this point in their careers.

 

I'm willing to say Alexei should be able to put up a better overall season again, maybe a 775 OPS. He kind of started out his Sox career like Uribe in 2004 and then has flattened out to a pretty predictable trend line in the mid 700's.

 

But Peavy, Thornton, Floyd, Rios, Beckham and Dunn all very easily could be significantly better.

 

Probably not enough to top the Tigers barring some unforeseen injuries, but a team that wins 84-87 games, can definitely see that.

 

 

[The Ginger Kid]

I'm through with betting on Konerko looking old.

here here