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2012-2013 NCAA Basketball thread


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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 6, 2013 -> 12:02 AM)
Craft got fouled minimum of four times that last play. Luckily for Michigan they were at home.

Funny you say that, given this article I just ran across...http://www.mlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/02/michigan_michigan_state_just_t.html#incart_river

 

Sure, Indiana gets some calls at home, but this is pretty timely.

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QUOTE (farmteam @ Feb 6, 2013 -> 10:49 AM)
Funny you say that, given this article I just ran across...http://www.mlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2013/02/michigan_michigan_state_just_t.html#incart_river

 

Sure, Indiana gets some calls at home, but this is pretty timely.

 

Hopefully, that article was tongue in cheek, if not it was the dumbest piece of writing I've ever seen. Did he get even one fact right?

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I saw the line at 18.5 and 19.5, wonder how that stacks up.

 

Edit: Here you go...

 

According to SC:

 

TCU had a 4.5% chance of winning according to the BPI game predictor.

 

Ranks entering game Kansas 6th, TCU 246th.

 

Larger gap in BPI than any of 1 vs 16 matchups in 2012 Men's basketball championship.

 

So essentially there's your 1/16 upset.

Edited by IlliniKrush
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QUOTE (He_Gawn @ Dec 13, 2012 -> 01:57 PM)
Come on Illini fans, whats the deal with there being so many tickets up for grabs for when IU comes to CU? There's probably been at least 30-40 peegs members say they just bought tickets for themselves and their families. That place should be packed with excitement with Groce at the helm and the turnaround season.

Randomly saw this looking for the below post. To answer your original question, it's because no one wants to see us get blown out at home.

 

QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Jan 6, 2013 -> 05:17 PM)
Huge, huge, huge rebound win yesterday for the Illini. Time to turn Assembly Hall into a place where it's very tough to win once again.

OK then.

 

Lose tomorrow and it's 5 in a row at home. 5. in. a. row. That's only happened once before. In the 70's.

 

First seven seasons this cenutry (2000-2006): 3 home losses

 

Lose to Purdue after that, and you've set the record. Congrats seniors, you have that record, along with never beating Missouri or Purdue.

 

OMG end this season.

Edited by IlliniKrush
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QUOTE (IlliniKrush @ Feb 6, 2013 -> 11:57 PM)
I saw the line at 18.5 and 19.5, wonder how that stacks up.

 

Edit: Here you go...

 

According to SC:

 

TCU had a 4.5% chance of winning according to the BPI game predictor.

 

Ranks entering game Kansas 6th, TCU 246th.

 

Larger gap in BPI than any of 1 vs 16 matchups in 2012 Men's basketball championship.

 

So essentially there's your 1/16 upset.

 

According to Pomeroy, TCU has played four teams ranked 300 or lower. They beat all four by a combined 13 points. I think they may be worse than your average 16 seed.

 

With the one-year waiting rule for the NBA, we aren't far away from an official 16 over 1 upset in the tourney.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 7, 2013 -> 06:58 AM)
According to Pomeroy, TCU has played four teams ranked 300 or lower. They beat all four by a combined 13 points. I think they may be worse than your average 16 seed.

 

With the one-year waiting rule for the NBA, we aren't far away from an official 16 over 1 upset in the tourney.

 

The Vegas lines seem to shrink every year between the 16 and 1. Used to be like 35 points but now you usually see around 15 or so.

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QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Feb 7, 2013 -> 01:30 PM)
All I know is my KU friends that keep bringing up Norfolk State are going to get hell for the next few days.

 

I'm sure you won't get far with that, considering Mizzou lost to LSU last week.

Edited by bmags
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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Feb 7, 2013 -> 10:45 AM)
Indiana (-7) @ Illinois

 

That might be the easiest bet of the year. I assume it's a typo and suppose to say -17.

It sure seems that way. I was surprised it was that low. Indiana will likely score 80ish. They think we'll score in the 70's?

 

Maybe we are allowed to turn the shot clock off for this game?

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I expect a blow out, but I wouldn't be shocked by a close game either. This is essentially Illinois' last chance for a statement win (a winnable statement win as opposed to a game like @Mich). They did play well against MSU and probably should have won but for Paul's ignorance and the ridiculous number of foul shots MSU took in the second half.

 

They'll need to play their best defensive game of the year though, and hit some shots for the first time in 2 months. I'm guessing it'll be a 6-8 point lead for IU throughout, and in the last 8 minutes or so they'll pull away and win by 14-16.

 

Let's say Illinois does win though, or they win at Michigan or at Minnesota, and then win a few of the crap games and end up with 6 wins in the conference. Is that good enough to get them in the dance? Their RPI number would be good enough (41 right now, so gotta be in the 25-35 range), their SOS is top 10 right now and shouldn't change much with their upcoming schedule. It'd be an interesting case study. I don't remember a team with so many quality wins and really only two bad losses - purdue and northwestern.

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QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Feb 7, 2013 -> 12:39 PM)
I expect a blow out, but I wouldn't be shocked by a close game either. This is essentially Illinois' last chance for a statement win (a winnable statement win as opposed to a game like @Mich). They did play well against MSU and probably should have won but for Paul's ignorance and the ridiculous number of foul shots MSU took in the second half.

 

They'll need to play their best defensive game of the year though, and hit some shots for the first time in 2 months. I'm guessing it'll be a 6-8 point lead for IU throughout, and in the last 8 minutes or so they'll pull away and win by 14-16.

 

Let's say Illinois does win though, or they win at Michigan or at Minnesota, and then win a few of the crap games and end up with 6 wins in the conference. Is that good enough to get them in the dance? Their RPI number would be good enough (41 right now, so gotta be in the 25-35 range), their SOS is top 10 right now and shouldn't change much with their upcoming schedule. It'd be an interesting case study. I don't remember a team with so many quality wins and really only two bad losses - purdue and northwestern.

This is about what I'm thinking, though a little closer than that. It's not like Wisconsin where they make you play a completely different type of game. If Illinois wants to play well, they typically need to play up-tempo and hit 3s...and that's a style IU plays very well.

 

I'm gonna say...

 

Indiana 77

Illinois 70

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It really should be an interesting game. Illinois tends to play better when the game speeds up a bit. Watford and Zeller aren't your typical physical big men that the Illini tend to have problems with too. Somewhat comparable to Olynyk and Harris from Gonzaga (who did well against the Illini and almost fouled out the whole front court, but didn't dominate on the glass).

 

If Egwu can stay out of foul trouble I think Illinois has an okay chance. Unfortunately the odds of that happening against Zeller are slim to none, so I just can't see how Illinois wins. They'd have to be hot from downtown and play energetic defense. You never know if Illinois flips a switch and plays the way they did against Butler, Gonzaga, and Ohio State though, so who knows?

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Not feeling real great tonight either. I think either we win by a blowout or Illinois comes out hot from 3 and makes it very difficult. If we come out flat and end up chasing Illinois, their confidence will rise along with my blood pressure. If IU comes out aggressively and Illinois tries to run with them, we'll run them out of the gym like we did Purdue. Unfortunately, I'm much more thinking along the lines of the former than the latter!

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