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4/22/12 GT Sox @ Mariners 3:10pm, CSN


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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 22, 2012 -> 05:10 PM)
KW doesn't ALWAYS get his man.

 

Thankfully we didn't end up trading Dunn or Rios for his contract, just for a change of scenery type of trade.

There is still plenty of time for KW to get Figgins when he's like 38.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Apr 22, 2012 -> 06:07 PM)
why not?

Because the probability of each individual guy going from near all star level to worst in baseball by random luck is very low, out of the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of seasons in MLB history. So your chances of it happening to 1 guy randomly should be on the order of 1 in 100,000. The odds of it happening to 2 guys, independently, would be that number squared, so 1 in 100,000,000,000.

 

The way to change that math is to have it not be independent/random.

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That looked almost like a forkball/slider....almost impossible to hit.

 

Delabar is such an amazing story. If they make THE ROOKIE 2, it will be about him, surely.

 

Pitching guru Tom House (the one who caught Aaron's 715th HR in the bullpen) deserves a ton of credit for his rehab/recovery.

Edited by caulfield12
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QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 22, 2012 -> 04:12 PM)
Because the probability of each individual guy going from near all star level to worst in baseball by random luck is very low, out of the hundreds of thousands (millions?) of seasons in MLB history. So your chances of it happening to 1 guy randomly should be on the order of 1 in 100,000. The odds of it happening to 2 guys, independently, would be that number squared, so 1 in 100,000,000,000.

 

The way to change that math is to have it not be independent/random.

 

of course it's very low. but if the odds are 1 in a 100,000 (or whatever you decide the number is) and Adam Dunn had the worst season ever, then he WAS that ONE wasn't he?

 

Rios was terrible, but i'd say his season wasn't as much a statistical anomaly based on the fact that he's always had streaks of awful.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Apr 22, 2012 -> 06:18 PM)
of course it's very low. but if the odds are 1 in a 100,000 (or whatever you decide the number is) and Adam Dunn had the worst season ever, then he WAS that ONE wasn't he?

 

Rios was terrible, but i'd say his season wasn't as much a statistical anomaly based on the fact that he's always had streaks of awful.

Which by definition means it's not just random baseball luck. You're now talking issues of physical and mental preparation.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Apr 22, 2012 -> 05:18 PM)
of course it's very low. but if the odds are 1 in a 100,000 (or whatever you decide the number is) and Adam Dunn had the worst season ever, then he WAS that ONE wasn't he?

 

Rios was terrible, but i'd say his season wasn't as much a statistical anomaly based on the fact that he's always had streaks of awful.

 

 

But nothing close to 2009 and 2011, if you look at his entire body of work in Toronto, he was always pretty consistent, overall....in terms of his numbers.

 

And then when you include 2010 as an overall season to that whole...and the fact that he's not that old at all.

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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 22, 2012 -> 02:55 PM)
HUGE FROM Alex Rios.

 

Atta boy.

 

And now we manage to drive in Rios and we're up in this game.

 

 

 

Charlie Furbush coming into the game. Wonder how many games the White Sox have won getting 2 runners thrown out at the plate in the same game? Not many.

A nice grindy comeback like I wanted. Now just carry it all the way home.

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