Alex Rios getting it done.

[southsider2k5]

I'd just like to add that I don't want to get rid of "this" Rios. We put up with the crap Rios for years, and it seems like he may be turning a corner...trading him wouldn't produce much of a trade because of his salary, so instead of getting nothing in return, I'd like to keep him if this is the version of him we will be getting. Waiting until he's playing good and then trading him would make me sick, especially if he stays good and some other teams gets to reap the benefits after the years of frustration we had to deal with. I'd sooner keep him because his contract would dictate little to no return in shedding him right now.

 

If someone were to want to take Rios, and not have the Sox pay back anything, I could care less what we get in return. Deal him and move on.

[LittleHurt05]

I'd just like to add that I don't want to get rid of "this" Rios. We put up with the crap Rios for years, and it seems like he may be turning a corner...trading him wouldn't produce much of a trade because of his salary, so instead of getting nothing in return, I'd like to keep him if this is the version of him we will be getting. Waiting until he's playing good and then trading him would make me sick, especially if he stays good and some other teams gets to reap the benefits after the years of frustration we had to deal with. I'd sooner keep him because his contract would dictate little to no return in shedding him right now.

 

I'm just worried whether or not this Rios will be the one we get all season. Even in 2010, his one OK year with the Sox, he had an outstanding May, but was pretty mediocre for the other 5 months of the year.

[iamshack]

I'd just like to add that I don't want to get rid of "this" Rios. We put up with the crap Rios for years, and it seems like he may be turning a corner...trading him wouldn't produce much of a trade because of his salary, so instead of getting nothing in return, I'd like to keep him if this is the version of him we will be getting. Waiting until he's playing good and then trading him would make me sick, especially if he stays good and some other teams gets to reap the benefits after the years of frustration we had to deal with. I'd sooner keep him because his contract would dictate little to no return in shedding him right now.

That's what Caufield and Balta have been referencing when discussing why it would be difficult to trade him...it's essentially an FU to the average fan if you move him when he finally becomes productive. Of course, if he goes back to the .500 OPS player he's been for the last season and a half, then you're kicking yourself.

 

As it stands now, I just disagree with Balta about moving Dunn and Rios should you get the chance...this team is constructed to win IF players like Peavy/Dunn/Rios produce...coming into last year, there was optimism BECAUSE we expected Dunn to play like he is now. Simply because it didn't work last year doesn't make the idea a poor one now that it's coming a year late.

 

We've got to shake the notion that the baseline of this team is where they finished last season, because it's not. IMHO, it's closer to where the 2010 team finished than the 2011 team finished.

 

I understand there are some great teams out there in the AL, but to be blatantly honest, with a productive Rios/Peavy/Dunn, and the pitching staff we have right now...we're not going to field too many better teams than this one...so we might as well roll the dice with them...

[Y2HH]

That's what Caufield and Balta have been referencing when discussing why it would be difficult to trade him...it's essentially an FU to the average fan if you move him when he finally becomes productive. Of course, if he goes back to the .500 OPS player he's been for the last season and a half, then you're kicking yourself.

 

As it stands now, I just disagree with Balta about moving Dunn and Rios should you get the chance...this team is constructed to win IF players like Peavy/Dunn/Rios produce...coming into last year, there was optimism BECAUSE we expected Dunn to play like he is now. Simply because it didn't work last year doesn't make the idea a poor one now that it's coming a year late.

 

We've got to shake the notion that the baseline of this team is where they finished last season, because it's not. IMHO, it's closer to where the 2010 team finished than the 2011 team finished.

 

I understand there are some great teams out there in the AL, but to be blatantly honest, with a productive Rios/Peavy/Dunn, and the pitching staff we have right now...we're not going to field too many better teams than this one...so we might as well roll the dice with them...

 

Exactly what I'm thinking.

 

At this point the die has been cast...a few years ago. May as well see what we can get out of it now, because the alternative is unloading money and getting nothing in return...and that does nothing for me.

 

It's not saving ME a dime...so I don't f***ing care what their payroll is. It's not like ticket prices are going to drop because the teams saving money...so no thanks...I'd rather keep Rios/Dunn and see what we can get now.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Y2HH

[Balta1701]

Exactly what I'm thinking.

 

At this point the die has been cast...a few years ago. May as well see what we can get out of it now, because the alternative is unloading money and getting nothing in return...and that does nothing for me.

 

It's not saving ME a dime...so I don't f***ing care what their payroll is. It's not like ticket prices are going to drop because the teams saving money...so no thanks...I'd rather keep Rios/Dunn and see what we can get now.

Here's my opposing perspective...

 

You may not care about what the team's payroll is "Right now", but the time when you're going to care what it is will be next offseason, when we're forced to make decisions on which failed prospects (Morel, Beckham) to replace and who else takes a spot in the rotation/bullpen.

 

We paid a huge, premium price for both Dunn and Rios, on the grounds that we were going to "Win now" at the time we acquired them. That didn't happen, but we're still paying that premium price.

 

Clearing the remaining years was all anyone could imagine doing last offseason, and it's still the right move IMO...that way, the team stops paying a premium price for that RF and DH, both of whom could be replaced for less money on the open market. And if we can clear them, that gives us room to pay Free Agent premium prices for the positions (2b, 3b) that we really need to fill next offseason in order to legitimately become a competitive team.

[southsider2k5]

That's what Caufield and Balta have been referencing when discussing why it would be difficult to trade him...it's essentially an FU to the average fan if you move him when he finally becomes productive. Of course, if he goes back to the .500 OPS player he's been for the last season and a half, then you're kicking yourself.

 

As it stands now, I just disagree with Balta about moving Dunn and Rios should you get the chance...this team is constructed to win IF players like Peavy/Dunn/Rios produce...coming into last year, there was optimism BECAUSE we expected Dunn to play like he is now. Simply because it didn't work last year doesn't make the idea a poor one now that it's coming a year late.

 

We've got to shake the notion that the baseline of this team is where they finished last season, because it's not. IMHO, it's closer to where the 2010 team finished than the 2011 team finished.

 

I understand there are some great teams out there in the AL, but to be blatantly honest, with a productive Rios/Peavy/Dunn, and the pitching staff we have right now...we're not going to field too many better teams than this one...so we might as well roll the dice with them...

 

Dunn I am fine with keeping. He has a completely different history than Rios. Rios is erratic and extremely inconsistent.

[southsider2k5]

Exactly what I'm thinking.

 

At this point the die has been cast...a few years ago. May as well see what we can get out of it now, because the alternative is unloading money and getting nothing in return...and that does nothing for me.

 

It's not saving ME a dime...so I don't f***ing care what their payroll is. It's not like ticket prices are going to drop because the teams saving money...so no thanks...I'd rather keep Rios/Dunn and see what we can get now.

 

I care about payroll to the extent is means we can get pieces to contend in future years. To treat payroll like it doesn't matter is shortsighted at best.

[iamshack]

Exactly what I'm thinking.

 

At this point the die has been cast...a few years ago. May as well see what we can get out of it now, because the alternative is unloading money and getting nothing in return...and that does nothing for me.

 

It's not saving ME a dime...so I don't f***ing care what their payroll is. It's not like ticket prices are going to drop because the teams saving money...so no thanks...I'd rather keep Rios/Dunn and see what we can get now.

Well, someone taking Balta's position will argue that unloading that salary will put the organization in a better position to succeed in 2013/2014/2015, etc...but I ask the question, what is the ultimate goal here? Last I checked, Kenny's spoken goal is to win another Championship...what the hell are you doing if you're tearing apart a winning team to save $ for the future? Hoping to get right back where you already are now in two or three years?

 

We have the young arms now to sustain the signings of Dunn and Rios if they are being somewhat productive. Peavy's salary is off the books after this season. So let's roll the dice with the team we envisioned 2 and 3 years ago, not unload the key players for nothing just as they finally began to bear fruit...

[Balta1701]

Well, someone taking Balta's position will argue that unloading that salary will put the organization in a better position to succeed in 2013/2014/2015, etc...but I ask the question, what is the ultimate goal here? Last I checked, Kenny's spoken goal is to win another Championship...what the hell are you doing if you're tearing apart a winning team to save $ for the future? Hoping to get right back where you already are now in two or three years?

 

We have the young arms now to sustain the signings of Dunn and Rios if they are being somewhat productive. Peavy's salary is off the books after this season. So let's roll the dice with the team we envisioned 2 and 3 years ago, not unload the key players for nothing just as they finally began to bear fruit...

I guess the question then is...do you think it's worth calling us "all in" again for this team, this year? Because if we are, then we should also start acting like it, and that means Beckham, Morel, and Viciedo ought to be back in AAA pretty quick too, because they're costing us games with how bad they're producing while we try to develop them.

[iamshack]

Here's my opposing perspective...

 

You may not care about what the team's payroll is "Right now", but the time when you're going to care what it is will be next offseason, when we're forced to make decisions on which failed prospects (Morel, Beckham) to replace and who else takes a spot in the rotation/bullpen.

 

We paid a huge, premium price for both Dunn and Rios, on the grounds that we were going to "Win now" at the time we acquired them. That didn't happen, but we're still paying that premium price.

 

Clearing the remaining years was all anyone could imagine doing last offseason, and it's still the right move IMO...that way, the team stops paying a premium price for that RF and DH, both of whom could be replaced for less money on the open market. And if we can clear them, that gives us room to pay Free Agent premium prices for the positions (2b, 3b) that we really need to fill next offseason in order to legitimately become a competitive team.

This is not true. The price we paid is only high because they have failed to produce. Should they play to their capabilities, the price we paid was below market value.

 

Obviously, I understand there is quite a debate to be had about whether or not either of them will play to their capabilities.

[iamshack]

I guess the question then is...do you think it's worth calling us "all in" again for this team, this year? Because if we are, then we should also start acting like it, and that means Beckham, Morel, and Viciedo ought to be back in AAA pretty quick too, because they're costing us games with how bad they're producing while we try to develop them.

Don't get me wrong...we're only 15 games in and we don't need to be doing anything drastic right now other than what is best for the development of whichever players the organization believes will make up its future. Any potential moves might deserve more consideration if we actually had anyone other than Lillibridge to replace either of them. But the fact is, Beckham is close to an elite defender and we have no other third baseman. The upside of Beckham and Morel developing is still much higher than the marginal offensive upgrade we might see from playing Escobar and Lillibridge in their stead.

 

Now, should we get into June and July with a similar winning percentage and similar offensive output from Beckham and Morel, the conversation definitely shifts to what you're suggesting.

 

 

[Balta1701]

This is not true. The price we paid is only high because they have failed to produce. Should they play to their capabilities, the price we paid was below market value.

 

Obviously, I understand there is quite a debate to be had about whether or not either of them will play to their capabilities.

Well, that's a statement I can back up some...

 

With Dunn, for example, if you go to the fWAR version, he's been a $14 million player 1 time in his career, 2004. He's been a $13 million player one time other than that. Yes, his defense held him back, but the "position adjustments" at DH are high enough he's not likely to overcome that. fWAR would think he was a $10 million or so player even if he had a very good season at DH (Victor Martinez was a $13 million fWAR value player last year), so based on that standard, paying $14 million a year for him was a premium price.

 

Rios...you could say he was a bargain based on his all-star 2007-2008 seasons, where he put up $25 million in fWAR value a year, but since then, he's put up $1.3, $14.8, and -$3 million in value. He's sorta fairly paid for his $2010 season, but obviously 2 of the last 3 years he's massively underperformed. So yeah, if he 'plays to capabilities" you're right on him and that's a below market value price...but like everyone else here, I'm skeptical.

 

So that's part of my case for why I think we paid premium for both of them. I always thought the dollar amounts in fWAR were pretty generous, and both of the guys have been hugely overpaid the last 3 years, and Dunn has never put up enough performance to justify a $14 million salary. I'm ok with paying that premium if we're trying to win "Now"...if we're not, then I have trouble with thinking that's a good way to spend cash.

[iamshack]

Well, that's a statement I can back up some...

 

With Dunn, for example, if you go to the fWAR version, he's been a $14 million player 1 time in his career, 2004. He's been a $13 million player one time other than that. Yes, his defense held him back, but the "position adjustments" at DH are high enough he's not likely to overcome that. fWAR would think he was a $10 million or so player even if he had a very good season at DH (Victor Martinez was a $13 million fWAR value player last year), so based on that standard, paying $14 million a year for him was a premium price.

 

Rios...you could say he was a bargain based on his all-star 2007-2008 seasons, where he put up $25 million in fWAR value a year, but since then, he's put up $1.3, $14.8, and -$3 million in value. He's sorta fairly paid for his $2010 season, but obviously 2 of the last 3 years he's massively underperformed. So yeah, if he 'plays to capabilities" you're right on him and that's a below market value price...but like everyone else here, I'm skeptical.

 

So that's part of my case for why I think we paid premium for both of them. I always thought the dollar amounts in fWAR were pretty generous, and both of the guys have been hugely overpaid the last 3 years, and Dunn has never put up enough performance to justify a $14 million salary. I'm ok with paying that premium if we're trying to win "Now"...if we're not, then I have trouble with thinking that's a good way to spend cash.

Unfortunately the actual market doesn't really correspond to fWAR values yet.

 

 

[Balta1701]

Unfortunately the actual market doesn't really correspond to fWAR values yet.

Generally I feel like fWAR actually mostly "overpays" people who sign FA contracts, do you disagree? If my feeling on that is right, then that would make me thinking we paid a "premium" price for those 2 guys even stronger.

[Y2HH]

I care about payroll to the extent is means we can get pieces to contend in future years. To treat payroll like it doesn't matter is shortsighted at best.

 

Not really.

 

You care about payroll only if all of their ventures pan out...so far Rios and Dunn have not...and that's all there is too it. If they were both raking the last few years, the payroll invested in them wouldn't matter at all.

 

And a large payroll has nothing to do with contenting in future years...ask the Cubs. I don't treat payroll like it doesn't matter if/when the right players are paid, but I do treat it with an "I don't care attitude" in that 1) it doesn't save me a dime on ticket/concession prices, and 2) payroll is always renewed in a rather short span of time. Since the Sox don't give out long term "Soriano" like contracts, waiting 3-4 years to shed an overpaid bad player isn't that long of a wait in the grand scheme of things considering how rare it is to get an overpriced bad player. We can probably count on 1 hand how often this has happened in past 30 years on the Sox...

[iamshack]

Generally I feel like fWAR actually mostly "overpays" people who sign FA contracts, do you disagree? If my feeling on that is right, then that would make me thinking we paid a "premium" price for those 2 guys even stronger.

fWAR evaluates how a player performed relative to a replacement level player.

 

The FA market is a convergence of all kinds of other variables, including how much money is available, what other assets are available, which organizations are involved in the bidding, etc.

 

The bizarre fundamentals and artificial restraints in place in the baseball FA market are just do not lend themselves in any accurate fashion to comparison with what the player's sabermetric value might be or have been.

[southsider2k5]

Not really.

 

You care about payroll only if all of their ventures pan out...so far Rios and Dunn have not...and that's all there is too it. If they were both raking the last few years, the payroll invested in them wouldn't matter at all.

 

And a large payroll has nothing to do with contenting in future years...ask the Cubs. I don't treat payroll like it doesn't matter if/when the right players are paid, but I do treat it with an "I don't care attitude" in that 1) it doesn't save me a dime on ticket/concession prices, and 2) payroll is always renewed in a rather short span of time. Since the Sox don't give out long term "Soriano" like contracts, waiting 3-4 years to shed an overpaid bad player isn't that long of a wait in the grand scheme of things considering how rare it is to get an overpriced bad player. We can probably count on 1 hand how often this has happened in past 30 years on the Sox...

 

If you can deal a potential dog, instead of waiting the three years, you do it.

[Balta1701]

We can probably count on 1 hand how often this has happened in past 30 years on the Sox...

From just the last 5 seasons, I've got:

 

Dunn

Rios

Peavy

Contreras

Vazquez

 

[Y2HH]

From just the last 5 seasons, I've got:

 

Dunn

Rios

Peavy

Contreras

Vazquez

 

No.

 

Contreras won a world series with us...so take him off the list. As far as I'm concerned he earned every dime from that alone.

 

Peavy was injured, and oft-injured before we got him, so we knew he was a risk coming into it. And depending on what he does this year, his only healthy year with us thus far, it could very well pay off.

 

Dunn has had 1 bad season and it looks like he turned it around, so too soon to tell.

 

Rios, yes. But we said this from the get go he was overpaid.

 

Vazquez, maybe...we unloaded him and I believe part of his contract was paid for us.

 

So of the 5 you listed, only 2 can be counted, and potentially not even 2 if Peavy puts in a cy young like year. And again, I have to highlight, all of these were VERY short term "bad" contracts.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Y2HH

[Balta1701]

Contreras signed an extension with the Sox after 2005, and then spent most of those extension years hurt, so yeah, the team definitely was trying to run out the clock on him. And Peavy...yeah, we've definitely been waiting 3 years now to shed that overpaid contract. Dunn and Rios I put on that list because they'll never live up to their contracts with how far down they were last year, and last December, no one here would have supported keeping them if someone else would have claimed their contract.

 

So yeah, for all of them, I definitely feel like they wound up on the "do whatever we can do to get rid of this guy so we don't have to pay his contract" system.

 

Oh, and we can also add Swisher to that list, he was dumped for next to nothing so we wouldn't have to pay his expensive years too.

[Y2HH]

Contreras signed an extension with the Sox after 2005, and then spent most of those extension years hurt, so yeah, the team definitely was trying to run out the clock on him. And Peavy...yeah, we've definitely been waiting 3 years now to shed that overpaid contract. Dunn and Rios I put on that list because they'll never live up to their contracts with how far down they were last year, and last December, no one here would have supported keeping them if someone else would have claimed their contract.

 

So yeah, for all of them, I definitely feel like they wound up on the "do whatever we can do to get rid of this guy so we don't have to pay his contract" system.

 

Oh, and we can also add Swisher to that list, he was dumped for next to nothing so we wouldn't have to pay his expensive years too.

 

I don't even see most of those guys as "overpaid" considering the market at the time of their signings. And injuries make this hard to account for. The only time I view a player as being a true waste is when you sign them to a big deal and they play, but produce nothing (Rios last few years/Dunn last year.). Getting injured is an entirely different thing...and has more to do with bad luck than under producing.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Y2HH

[Princess Dye]

For a really distant frame of reference, the NY Knicks did this in 08-09 with a team that started out the gate surprisingly well, and its bloated contract players were finally producing.

 

But because of the financial strain they decided to blow it up one month in...they traded talent (overpaid talent mind you, but still talent) ...Zach Randolph, Jamal Crawford

 

and thus the team stunk the rest of the year, and stunk for a few more years til a total overhaul was possible.

 

A stretch of a parallel of course, but then again with Jerry R. as your owner it's easier to think of baseball as being capped...so maybe it's not such a stretch.

 

 

 

 

 

The biggest difference of course...is that in the NBA you dont want to be a middle-of-the-road team. In baseball middle-of-the-road is still striking distance, at least as far as a one year outlook.

Edited April 23, 2012 by Jose Paniagua

[elrockinMT]

I was more than willing to let non performers of 2011 like Rios, Dunn and Peavy go but baseball fans have short memories. They are perfomring now and hopefull ths continues. We are contending and even when not hitting on all cylinders seem to stay in the games. Maybe we have turned the corner after last season and now we are going to support or call for trades of Rios and Floyd? Let's be happy for a little while.

[Princess Dye]

Really the only question to ask is, what would we get in return (immediately) for Peavy, Dunn, Rios? My guess is not much. Peavy might eventually get us something back if he keeps going well. we'll still have to pay $ to unload.

 

To just yell that you want to dump their contracts proves fan frustration, nothing more. It's hard for the Sox to get free agents most years with any money we save, so the question to really ask is what prospects can we get back for these guys?

 

If offers are weak, it really is very possible that their greatest worth is still just being on this team. Even if Rios and his career .750 or .760 OPS is what we get for the next few years....on an offense like this one, factoring in his defense, that really is needed here.

 

We have to take ourselves out of the present and remember that we can't rely on AJ's bat carrying so much of the load in the future. That's going to come back to earth with reckless fury, maybe soon.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Really the only question to ask is, what would we get in return (immediately) for Peavy, Dunn, Rios? My guess is not much. Peavy might eventually get us something back if he keeps going well. we'll still have to pay $ to unload.

 

To just yell that you want to dump their contracts proves fan frustration, nothing more. It's hard for the Sox to get free agents most years with any money we save, so the question to really ask is what prospects can we get back for these guys?

 

If offers are weak, it really is very possible that their greatest worth is still just being on this team. Even if Rios and his career .750 or .760 OPS is what we get for the next few years....on an offense like this one, factoring in his defense, that really is needed here.

 

We have to take ourselves out of the present and remember that we can't rely on AJ's bat carrying so much of the load in the future. That's going to come back to earth with reckless fury, maybe soon.

 

I sure wouldn't bet on that with his history.