10-6 seems like a great start...

[Greg Hibbard]

...but I hadn't realized that the Sox started 10-6 or better 7 times in the preceding 12 seasons from 2000-2011 (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2008).

 

Of course, the results in all those years are all over the map, from 81 wins all the way to 99 and the series.

 

It does bode well that in 3 of those years the Sox won the division, and in a fourth they won 90 games but finished in third.

[southsider2k5]

...but I hadn't realized that the Sox started 10-6 or better 7 times in the preceding 12 seasons from 2000-2011 (2000, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2008).

 

Of course, the results in all those years are all over the map, from 81 wins all the way to 99 and the series.

 

It does bode well that in 3 of those years the Sox won the division, and in a fourth they won 90 games but finished in third.

 

A .500 season with development from the kids is all you can ask from this season.

[Princess Dye]

A .500 season with development from the kids is all you can ask from this season.

 

 

I'm not an undying optimist usually.... but we have to factor in a few things:

 

1) the central has a lot of W's out there for the taking

 

2) yanks and boston have flaws

 

3) we were highly touted last year, and the roster has not changed that dramatically since last year.

 

 

 

I think we ignore #3 because the failures of last year were so painful. But failures in a baseball season can be cured by--voila-- a new baseball season.

 

It's one route, at least, considering how mercurial the game itself is.

[iamshack]

A .500 season with development from the kids is all you can ask from this season.

I don't understand this premise whatsoever.

[Jerksticks]

A .500 season with development from the kids is all you can ask from this season.

 

Yea but the pitching seems quite loaded. We might be the only team this year that's in damn near every game. I'd put our staff, 1-5, against any other staff. Too bad playoff series aren't 15 games long.

[southsider2k5]

I don't understand this premise whatsoever.

 

I'm not changing my expectations completely based on the first 16 games of the season.

[iamshack]

I'm not changing my expectations completely based on the first 16 games of the season.

Were your expectations coming into 2011 a .500 team?

[Wanne]

I think the big thing with many predicting he Sox were .500 or worse was largely determined that Dunn and Rios were going to having years close to last year instead of the resurgence they've show so far. If they keep anywhere close to what they're doing now...that's HUGE! The staff has been tremendous and guys like Morel and Beckham can't keep going at this pace all year (at least you'd hope not). Morel had a very encouraging game last night at the plate...Gordo...still not sold on him. But with the rest of the this lineup...I don't see why the Sox can't contend in this division. It's wide open and I'm encouraged as hell by this start.

[flavum]

It is a great start, but let's get to June 1 at about 30-21. That's a pretty good sample size, and we'll know if the pitching staff is for real by then, and if the offense has been good enough.

 

I'm not thinking this is a rebuilding year, nor am I ready to tell the critics they were wrong yet. I don't know what this team is yet, but I'm enjoying what I'm seeing so far, and I hope it continues the last 90% of the season.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Were your expectations coming into 2011 a .500 team?

 

Yes. 83-79.

[iamshack]

Yes. 83-79.

Coming off an 88-74 season and adding Dunn?

[Steve9347]

I'm not changing my expectations completely based on the first 16 games of the season.

But we have so few kids that said expectation is silly.

[southsider2k5]

I think the big thing with many predicting he Sox were .500 or worse was largely determined that Dunn and Rios were going to having years close to last year instead of the resurgence they've show so far. If they keep anywhere close to what they're doing now...that's HUGE! The staff has been tremendous and guys like Morel and Beckham can't keep going at this pace all year (at least you'd hope not). Morel had a very encouraging game last night at the plate...Gordo...still not sold on him. But with the rest of the this lineup...I don't see why the Sox can't contend in this division. It's wide open and I'm encouraged as hell by this start.

 

My idea was that some guys would recover, but you'd also have some regressions. You are also looking at the real possiblities of starting pitching faltering at the end of the year as guys like Peavy, Sale, and Humber hit career highs or multi-year highs in IP. You also have a bullpen half filled with rookies.

 

Don't get me wrong, I am encouraged by the start this year, but many things about it are unsustainable. There are other ares where we should see some improvement, but I think at the end of the day, maybe we get to 87/88 wins with some of the little nagging issues getting cleaned up about how this team plays baseball (right cutoff man, smart base running, not wasting bunts, etc), but I think the 90-95 range is a bit out of reach for this group.

[southsider2k5]

Coming off an 88-74 season and adding Dunn?

 

I missed the year in there. No, I expected more last year. That was for this year.

 

Anyways, I get the whole YOU WERE WRONG LAST YEAR SO WHAT DO YOU KNOW thing you are working on here, but it is just my opinion here. I think way too many people get caught up in thinking it is a 50 win team when we slump, and a World Champ when we are hot. The answer is 99.9% of the time in the middle. Things are going well now, but I am not going to take that and project it to a 100-60 by extrapolating these 16 games to 160.

[southsider2k5]

But we have so few kids that said expectation is silly.

 

A 500ish season is silly? I sure don't think so.

[iamshack]

I missed the year in there. No, I expected more last year. That was for this year.

 

Anyways, I get the whole YOU WERE WRONG LAST YEAR SO WHAT DO YOU KNOW thing you are working on here, but it is just my opinion here. I think way too many people get caught up in thinking it is a 50 win team when we slump, and a World Champ when we are hot. The answer is 99.9% of the time in the middle. Things are going well now, but I am not going to take that and project it to a 100-60 by extrapolating these 16 games to 160.

?

 

Not at all...what I'm working on is dispelling the notion that the baseline for this team is the results of last year's team. I said it in another thread previously...I think the baseline is closer to the 2010 team's results than the 2011 team's results.

[southsider2k5]

?

 

Not at all...what I'm working on is dispelling the notion that the baseline for this team is the results of last year's team. I said it in another thread previously...I think the baseline is closer to the 2010 team's results than the 2011 team's results.

 

I think with the amount of kids and rookies there are, coupled with losing Mark Buehrle, the just above .500 range is a fair expectation. I don't expect Sale/Humber/Peavy to make it high innings.

 

I think we will see some ups and downs out of Jones/Santiago/Reed.

 

I expect better than last year from Dunn/Rios/Morel/Beckham, but how much better? Could we see one or two of them completely fail? I don't see why not. If we get two of them back to career form, that is a huge step forward. But part of that still involves replacing TCQ's departed numbers.

 

Viciedo is still a wild card at this point as well. We saw the ups and downs from Alexei, keeping in mind this kid has a way longer swing.

 

We can't expect the same number from Konerko for sure.

 

I have come to accept that Robin being in the dugout will provide some more wins, just with some of the little changes he has made. If I had to guess today, I'd move from my 83 win prediction to about 86/87. At the end of the day, I still think we get beat by a double digit total to the Tigers.

[CaliSoxFanViaSWside]

Your thinking is very understandable. Enjoy it while it lasts ,keep expectations low and get excited if everything keeps going as it is now.

[iamshack]

I think with the amount of kids and rookies there are, coupled with losing Mark Buehrle, the just above .500 range is a fair expectation. I don't expect Sale/Humber/Peavy to make it high innings.

 

I think we will see some ups and downs out of Jones/Santiago/Reed.

 

I expect better than last year from Dunn/Rios/Morel/Beckham, but how much better? Could we see one or two of them completely fail? I don't see why not. If we get two of them back to career form, that is a huge step forward. But part of that still involves replacing TCQ's departed numbers.

 

Viciedo is still a wild card at this point as well. We saw the ups and downs from Alexei, keeping in mind this kid has a way longer swing.

 

We can't expect the same number from Konerko for sure.

 

I have come to accept that Robin being in the dugout will provide some more wins, just with some of the little changes he has made. If I had to guess today, I'd move from my 83 win prediction to about 86/87. At the end of the day, I still think we get beat by a double digit total to the Tigers.

And that is just a difference of opinion, which you are certainly entitled to...

 

I think replacing Mark with Sale is actually a positive, and replacing Sale and Santos with Santiago and Reed is only a slight negative offset.

 

I think we'll see a significant increase out of Dunn and potentially Rios. I don't think there is any place but up to go for Morel and Gordo.

 

Konerko, to me, actually appears to be getting better, somehow. The only question about him will be can he remain healthy.

 

Peavy and Humber should be stronger, and that should produce better results. Gavin and Danks will be close to themselves, respectively.

 

I see an 88-93 win team....is that enough to get us in the Wild Card? One would think so...

[SoxFan1]

The White Sox are currently 10-6. That's a .625 winning percentage. Over the course of 162 games, if they keep this pace, it's a 101 win season. Just saying.

[GoodAsGould]

A 500ish season is silly? I sure don't think so.

 

No, being satisfied with .500 because of having "kids" on the team is silly when the only 2 with potential are Viciedo ans Sale. Have some young Bp arms too but that's one spot I expect results young or not.

[Princess Dye]

Nothing at all out of line being said by southsider. We spent months just now hammering last year's team for how bad things were.

 

I don't think it's right to take these first games and consider Dunn cured, Peavy cured, etc. But I think it's just a matter of believing they can still be who they were on past teams.....or believing it when you see it.

Edited April 24, 2012 by Jose Paniagua

[southsider2k5]

And that is just a difference of opinion, which you are certainly entitled to...

 

I think replacing Mark with Sale is actually a positive, and replacing Sale and Santos with Santiago and Reed is only a slight negative offset.

 

I think we'll see a significant increase out of Dunn and potentially Rios. I don't think there is any place but up to go for Morel and Gordo.

 

Konerko, to me, actually appears to be getting better, somehow. The only question about him will be can he remain healthy.

 

Peavy and Humber should be stronger, and that should produce better results. Gavin and Danks will be close to themselves, respectively.

 

I see an 88-93 win team....is that enough to get us in the Wild Card? One would think so...

 

You will probably get better overall numbers out of Sale until he hits the wall because of IP. At that point he either falls apart ala Humber last year, or gets replaced by someone else like Zach Stewart, Dylan Axelrod etc. I would guess there are going to be 50-60 IP that Sale can't fill, which Mark did. I also would be shocked if both Peavy and Humber made it to 200 IP, which if they don't, means another person fills those innings as well. If they miss by a few starts each, that ends up being close to 100IP coming from someone(s) currently not in the rotation. Those would be big steps down from last year.

[iamshack]

You will probably get better overall numbers out of Sale until he hits the wall because of IP. At that point he either falls apart ala Humber last year, or gets replaced by someone else like Zach Stewart, Dylan Axelrod etc. I would guess there are going to be 50-60 IP that Sale can't fill, which Mark did. I also would be shocked if both Peavy and Humber made it to 200 IP, which if they don't, means another person fills those innings as well. If they miss by a few starts each, that ends up being close to 100IP coming from someone(s) currently not in the rotation. Those would be big steps down from last year.

Those are fair points...I really think our pen is capable of picking up a bit of extra workload this season...I suppose we'll need them.

[Balta1701]

Those are fair points...I really think our pen is capable of picking up a bit of extra workload this season...I suppose we'll need them.

So far, the Sox pen has thrown 39.2 innings, tying them with the Rays and 1/3 of an inning more than the Phillies for fewest bullpen innings in MLB (both of those teams have played more games than the Sox though). So if nothing else, the bullpen isn't being overused now.