Viciedo Not Worth The Wait

[Marty34]

Or, for another example, David Ortiz with the Twins...Luis Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, etc.

 

I'm not saying he will necessarily put up their numbers over a career, but he has the "ability/potential" to do so. The ball just jumps off his bat, that's the one thing we always heard and saw in the scouting videos. We can ALSO pretty confidently say we don't have any hitters at the minor league level who have that type of an impact bat other than perhaps Jared Mitchell if he continues his current track. (And perhaps Trayce Thompson behind him).

 

Other than that, we can dissect Viciedo's stroke, show all the videos of his homers and XB hits, Marty still will never be convinced.

 

However, if Ozzie's sons were White Sox scouts and were the ones responsible for signing a kid like Viciedo as a FA, you would think he was the second coming of Carlos Lee, Beltre, Bobby Bonilla and Vladimir Guerrero all wrapped up into one neat little package and tied neatly with a bow.

 

The three players you named C might have had a little help putting up those numbers.

[Marty34]

Marty, I'm sure it was mentioned earlier in the thread, but what is your solution to the issue? Is there some other young OF you want up here playing every day?

 

If you think we're a win-now team, then yes I could see more Fukudome at-bats..sure.

 

But if we're intent on building something this year, there's no question we need a bigger major league sample size on Viciedo, and this is the perfect year to see what we have there.

 

This year represents the best chance for postseason baseball for the Sox for the next 3-5 years in my opinion. LF'ers are not developed, they are found.

[JPN366]

How many outs did he make in 2009? Besides, it doesn't matter that his numbers were "good" or "not bad", they were not what you'd expect from an elite hitting prospect. Also, I do not give one damn about CJ Retherford as a comparison to any top hitting prospect.

 

I only mention Retherford because he was the only player in the league who had more hits than Viciedo.

 

And Marty, sorry for the insult, that was uncalled for, I apologize.

Edited May 3, 2012 by JPN366

[Marty34]

I only mention Retherford because he was the only player in the league who had more hits than Viciedo.

 

And Marty, sorry for the insult, that was uncalled for, I apologize.

 

No problem, apology accepted. Not too many people would have apologized, you have to be at least a pretty good guy based on that.

[Greg Hibbard]

What were Konerko's Minor League numbers compared to Viciedo?

 

If I find an example of a top minor leaguer than had a slow first 300 abs before crushing at the ML level, would it change your prejudice? That's a rhetorical question.

[Marty34]

If I find an example of a top minor leaguer than had a slow first 300 abs before crushing at the ML level, would it change your prejudice? That's a rhetorical question.

 

Need to know his minor league numbers. Viciedo did not tear through the minors and had a disconcerting K:BB ratio.

[Chicago White Sox]

Need to know his minor league numbers. Viciedo did not tear through the minors and had a disconcerting K:BB ratio.

Viciedo had 45 BBs to 83 Ks last season as a 22 year old Cuban in AAA. I think that's fantastic for such a young player, especially one who came to the U.S. with essentially no discipline.

[Dick Allen]

I agree with Marty, if you're 23 and haven't established yourself as a perrenial all star and future HOFer, its time to move on to something else. What are the White Sox thinking?

[Marty34]

I agree with Marty, if you're 23 and haven't established yourself as a perrenial all star and future HOFer, its time to move on to something else. What are the White Sox thinking?

 

Solid post as usual, Dick.

[Marty34]

Viciedo had 45 BBs to 83 Ks last season as a 22 year old Cuban in AAA. I think that's fantastic for such a young player, especially one who came to the U.S. with essentially no discipline.

 

The years prior to that were not good though. Was last year an outlier, too soon to tell.

[Dick Allen]

Solid post as usual, Dick.

I knew you would appreciate it. Got to get rid of anyone with talent. The only problem with getting rid of players with talent, if you get players with equal talent, you'll have to move them along too. Trading guys at their "peak value" means you are never really playing to win. Its a great philosophy.

[Marty34]

I knew you would appreciate it. Got to get rid of anyone with talent. The only problem with getting rid of players with talent, if you get players with equal talent, you'll have to move them along too. Trading guys at their "peak value" means you are never really playing to win. Its a great philosophy.

 

What is your definition of talent?

[Dick Allen]

What is your definition of talent?

tal·ent/ˈtalənt/

 

 

 

 

Noun:

 

 

 

 

1.Natural aptitude or skill.

2.A person or people possessing such aptitude or skill:

 

 

 

[Marty34]

tal·ent/ˈtalənt/

 

 

 

 

Noun:

 

 

 

 

1.Natural aptitude or skill.

2.A person or people possessing such aptitude or skill:

 

Very broad definition.

[caulfield12]

I knew you would appreciate it. Got to get rid of anyone with talent. The only problem with getting rid of players with talent, if you get players with equal talent, you'll have to move them along too. Trading guys at their "peak value" means you are never really playing to win. Its a great philosophy.

 

Sounds like Billy Beane playing out the string and biding time waiting for that new stadium.

 

That's why the Cespedes move was such an anomaly. Big risk, big upside, but limited by the fact they can only control him for 4 years and then he's on the FA market again.

 

Also, in the last 2 years of his contracts, the salary numbers get a lot bigger. But this year, he's definitely been a bargain, at least so far.

[caulfield12]

tal·ent/ˈtalənt/

 

 

 

 

Noun:

 

 

 

 

1.Natural aptitude or skill.

2.A person or people possessing such aptitude or skill:

 

A player possessing aptitude or skill according to M-34's discerning eye, which perhaps surpasses both Grady Fuson and Paul DePodesta in both astuteness and critical analysis.

Edited May 4, 2012 by caulfield12

[ILMOU]

Noone knows what he'll become, we're all speculating here, obviously, but I, for one, believe that he'll be a stud, eventually, and that a thread passing judgement so early is ridiculous. Reminds me of the reporter so eager to be the first to get a scoop, or an opportunity to be the 1st one to make a negative opinion of something or someone, but doesn't have nearly enough damning facts to make much of a case. When Dayan wasn't either suffering from or recovering from his thumb issues last year, he flat out raked.

 

Besides his physical tools, I LOVE his demeanor - it's a relaxed confidence that reminds me a bit of a young Robbie Cano or Manny. I think he has the right approach mentally, and will adjust to overcome his current deficiencies.

 

Time will tell.

[fathom]

Lots of great comments in this thread about Viciedo and his potential/history of similar guys

Edited May 4, 2012 by fathom

[witesoxfan]

Another point about Viciedo/Beltre, you can point out that Beltre was the Dodgers starting 3B when he was 19, but you also have to consider that he'd been in the Dodgers organization being developed and groomed as an adolescent by the Dodgers for 4 years by that point in time because he was illegally signed as a 15 year old, and he'd only turned 15 three months prior to being signed. Viciedo was signed as a 19 year old, and 3 months later, he turned 20, thus the age difference between them was 4.5 years between signing dates. And Viciedo wasn't groomed from age 15 and on to hit American pitching; he was playing in Cuba where expectations and the culture of the game itself is quite a bit different. Hell, the culture of Cuba itself is vastly different than that in America...it's no surprise that he took a while to adjust.

 

For some perspective, it will be 18 years on August 12th of this year since the players went on strike and the season was cancelled. Adrian Beltre was signed BEFORE the players went on strike.

 

I love Viciedo and I really do think, Marty, that you are one of the very, very few on this site who does not. He really does have the look of a guy who is going to hit for a lot of power.

[iamshack]

Another point about Viciedo/Beltre, you can point out that Beltre was the Dodgers starting 3B when he was 19, but you also have to consider that he'd been in the Dodgers organization being developed and groomed as an adolescent by the Dodgers for 4 years by that point in time because he was illegally signed as a 15 year old, and he'd only turned 15 three months prior to being signed. Viciedo was signed as a 19 year old, and 3 months later, he turned 20, thus the age difference between them was 4.5 years between signing dates. And Viciedo wasn't groomed from age 15 and on to hit American pitching; he was playing in Cuba where expectations and the culture of the game itself is quite a bit different. Hell, the culture of Cuba itself is vastly different than that in America...it's no surprise that he took a while to adjust.

 

For some perspective, it will be 18 years on August 12th of this year since the players went on strike and the season was cancelled. Adrian Beltre was signed BEFORE the players went on strike.

 

I love Viciedo and I really do think, Marty, that you are one of the very, very few on this site who does not. He really does have the look of a guy who is going to hit for a lot of power.

Thank you Captain Obvious!

 

Wite, I love you.

 

Marty is just stating he doesn't think Viciedo is going to live up to the hype. I respectfully agree with him.

 

It's not a matter of me thinking he won't hit for a lot of power...that much was obvious from the moment everyone saw him...my question is will he actually hit consistently enough.

 

Your point about Beltre is valid...he is definitely an example of someone who took a lot of major league at bats before really reaching his potential. The problem with that approach was by the time he actually appeared to figure it out (ok, I suppose his monster year in 2004 was more than "figuring it out"), the Dodgers had to let him walk because he had reached FA coming off a monster year...

[southsider2k5]

Thank you Captain Obvious!

 

Wite, I love you.

 

Marty is just stating he doesn't think Viciedo is going to live up to the hype. I respectfully agree with him.

 

It's not a matter of me thinking he won't hit for a lot of power...that much was obvious from the moment everyone saw him...my question is will he actually hit consistently enough.

 

Your point about Beltre is valid...he is definitely an example of someone who took a lot of major league at bats before really reaching his potential. The problem with that approach was by the time he actually appeared to figure it out (ok, I suppose his monster year in 2004 was more than "figuring it out"), the Dodgers had to let him walk because he had reached FA coming off a monster year...

 

The Sox had exactly 123 games of service time into Dayan coming into this year. He can't become a free agent until after the 2017 season.

[iamshack]

The Sox had exactly 123 games of service time into Dayan coming into this year. He can't become a free agent until after the 2017 season.

I'm well aware of that...and I didn't mean to insinuate he was going to become a FA after this season or anything. If you look at the Beltre example, however, it took him basically 5 full seasons before he really broke out...he had several productive years, but nothing that could really be considered all that wonderful...then of course, 2004 happened, and he was walking out the door to Seattle and the $.

 

So say Dayan, who is 23, takes the next 4 full seasons to really start reaching his "potential" as a Carlos Lee or Adrian Beltre type hitter...basically, you're getting that for maybe 1 or 2 arbitration years before he it's time to pay him Carlos Lee or Adrian Beltre type money, essentially because he had to have so many ML at bats to develop.

[southsider2k5]

I'm well aware of that...and I didn't mean to insinuate he was going to become a FA after this season or anything. If you look at the Beltre example, however, it took him basically 5 full seasons before he really broke out...he had several productive years, but nothing that could really be considered all that wonderful...then of course, 2004 happened, and he was walking out the door to Seattle and the $.

 

So say Dayan, who is 23, takes the next 4 full seasons to really start reaching his "potential" as a Carlos Lee or Adrian Beltre type hitter...basically, you're getting that for maybe 1 or 2 arbitration years before he it's time to pay him Carlos Lee or Adrian Beltre type money, essentially because he had to have so many ML at bats to develop.

 

Taking into account some maturity differences because of the extra 4 years Dayan has on Beltre, I really don't think we have to wait that long. I'm guessing he ends up somewhere around 25/75 this year, and pushes up over 30 homers in 2013 or 2014.

[iamshack]

Taking into account some maturity differences because of the extra 4 years Dayan has on Beltre, I really don't think we have to wait that long. I'm guessing he ends up somewhere around 25/75 this year, and pushes up over 30 homers in 2013 or 2014.

Fair enough.

 

I just don't really subscribe to the "youth" theory...I think once you reach this level of play, it's a matter of getting the reps...more than reaching some magical age.

 

I think it's going to take a lot of mlb ab's before he possibly reaches his massive potential.

[Balta1701]

Fair enough.

 

I just don't really subscribe to the "youth" theory...I think once you reach this level of play, it's a matter of getting the reps...more than reaching some magical age.

I think it's going to take a lot of mlb ab's before he possibly reaches his massive potential.

Which is exactly why I've spent the last 6+ months being so insistently annoying about the fact that this kid needs to play every day.