Viciedo Not Worth The Wait

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

How many times did people have this discussion about Alexei in April/May? I don't know what it is, but there seems to be proof to our Cubans not hitting well to start the season. I'm not totally surprised that Dayan would be flashing power in a nice warm place like California. Just hope for a warm summer and watch him drop 20-25 HR this season.

[2nd_city_saint787]

What makes you say this? Didn't he top out (only) in the 30's in BA's prospect lists? Who are guys who did that and had similar minor league numbers as Viciedo and became perrenial All-Stars? Interestingly, Magglio did put up similar minor league stats as Viciedo. Of course, Maggs might have had some help putting up those Major League numbers.

 

Not sure what that only means but top 30's of all the hundreds of minor leaguers is pretty damn good.

 

.649 OPS after this "monster" hot streak.

 

 

Are you seriously downplaying his hot streak??

 

 

 

[iamshack]

His service time coming into this season was .123, so no he really hasn't.

 

And what were you referring to with his minor league statistics?

Yes, but we've seen this before from him...he's been extremely streaky, 210 abs or not. If he produced at a reasonable level when he's not on one of his hot streaks, it would be much more palatable. But he produces almost nothing for weeks and then goes nuts for 4 games and then goes back to producing nothing again.

 

I'd just rather see a more consistent player. Yes, I know he is only 23. But I just don't hunk that is nothing that's going to change, even with experience.

[iamshack]

Not sure what that only means but top 30's of all the hundreds of minor leaguers is pretty damn good.

 

 

 

 

Are you seriously downplaying his hot streak??

His hot streak has been 5 games.

[caulfield12]

.649 OPS after this "monster" hot streak.

 

 

.669

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos.../OPS/order/true

 

 

He's still in the bottom quartile, but that's among the qualified players...I think it was Balta who said the major league (don't think it was AL, maybe?) average for a LFer was a 724 OPS.

 

I think it's very realistic to expect him to put up 725-750 this season and keep improving every year, both offensively and defensively.

 

That said, because of the position he plays, he's not valuable enough to get back a prime infielder or catching prospect, or a major league-ready starting pitcher that's in AA/AAA.

 

If he was able to put up those numbers at 3B, then you'd have a much more valuable asset and the comparisons to Beltre would be more relevant.

 

But 1) Williams would never trade him as long as he's GM, 2) His upside to contribute offense to the Sox in 2013-2014-2015 and beyond has a greater value to the Sox than almost any other team, particularly knowing you're probably going to be losing offense at catcher too with AJ leaving.

Edited May 18, 2012 by caulfield12

[Chicago White Sox]

Agreed. His bat speed is special and his pitch recognition is improving. The inpatience around here can be laughable. He is 23 and has a ton of potential. He is the last guy to consider trading.

Agree completely. Plus we have one guy in our entire system (Trayce Thompson) with the potential to be a three or four hitter and he's a huge longshot to make it.

 

And let me correct myself before someone else does, Viciedo now has 324 career at-bats. He's basically had half a season in the majors. I'm not sure what people were expecting from him at this point.

[caulfield12]

Not sure what that only means but top 30's of all the hundreds of minor leaguers is pretty damn good.

 

 

 

 

Are you seriously downplaying his hot streak??

 

 

And all of those guys like Jon Rauch, Danny Wright and Matt Ginter being top prospects in 2000 turned into what exactly?

 

And where was Mark Buehrle on that same list in 1999 and 2000? Outside of the Top 100.

 

It's like those football and basketball recruiting rankings, it's ONE benchmark or indictator, but the fact that he was rated 30th versus 15th or whatever doesn't mean much. Look at Borchard's peak rating, for example. Fields, Brian Anderson, etc.

 

 

[shakes]

Yes, but we've seen this before from him...he's been extremely streaky, 210 abs or not. If he produced at a reasonable level when he's not on one of his hot streaks, it would be much more palatable. But he produces almost nothing for weeks and then goes nuts for 4 games and then goes back to producing nothing again.

 

I'd just rather see a more consistent player. Yes, I know he is only 23. But I just don't hunk that is nothing that's going to change, even with experience.

[/quote

Well, that is baseball. Hitters are streaky. Konerko was a slow starter and a streaky hitter for a decade. Good thing we didn't trade him. He is 23 with a very live bat. Trading him is as short sighted as it gets. This team needs a dangerous bat more than anything. He has that potential. Give him, I don't know, half a full season before this discussion.

[caulfield12]

[/quote

Well, that is baseball. Hitters are streaky. Konerko was a slow starter and a streaky hitter for a decade. Good thing we didn't trade him. He is 23 with a very live bat. Trading him is as short sighted as it gets. This team needs a dangerous bat more than anything. He has that potential. Give him, I don't know, half a full season before this discussion.

 

 

Or look at Josh Hamilton...homers tend to come in bunches, same thing with Dunn.

 

It's the nature of sports.

 

Carlos Lee was ALWAYS that way...some hitters are a bit more consistent than others, but most power hitters aren't also high average guys.

 

AJ Pierzynski has been one of the streakiest hitters this season, but nobody could argue his contributions in the first 2-3 weeks of the season weren't especially valuable to getting us off to that 10-6 start.

 

 

[iamshack]

He needs to produce above a sub -.600 ops when he's not on a "hot streak."

[caulfield12]

He needs to produce above a sub -.600 ops when he's not on a "hot streak."

 

 

Beckham, Morel and finding a catcher for next season are MUCH bigger problems.

 

And we have to hope that Alexei Ramirez isn't now completely on the downside of his career already...

[shakes]

He needs to produce above a sub -.600 ops when he's not on a "hot streak."

It's a month and a half into his first full season. Relax. Or f*** it. Just trade him, he is too inconsistant in his first 215 pro at bats. Do you realize how this sounds?

[iamshack]

Beckham, Morel and finding a catcher for next season are MUCH bigger problems.

 

And we have to hope that Alexei Ramirez isn't now completely on the downside of his career already...

I've not stated that Viciedo is our biggest problem.

 

Just expressing an opinion...heck, maybe we avoid repeating the same situation that happened with Beckham by trading Viciedo when he still has high value.

[iamshack]

It's a month and a half into his first full season. Relax. Or f*** it. Just trade him, he is too inconsistant in his first 215 pro at bats. Do you realize how this sounds?

To whom? You?

[ScottyDo]

I'm confused. Now we're talking about trading Dayan Viciedo for a young hitter with some upside? Isn't that Dayan Viciedo? And who is this magical trade partner? Don't teams trading for young talent usually want to give up expensive veterans? Why do we want expensive veterans?

[2nd_city_saint787]

.669

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos.../OPS/order/true

 

 

He's still in the bottom quartile, but that's among the qualified players...I think it was Balta who said the major league (don't think it was AL, maybe?) average for a LFer was a 724 OPS.

 

I think it's very realistic to expect him to put up 725-750 this season and keep improving every year, both offensively and defensively.

 

That said, because of the position he plays, he's not valuable enough to get back a prime infielder or catching prospect, or a major league-ready starting pitcher that's in AA/AAA.

 

If he was able to put up those numbers at 3B, then you'd have a much more valuable asset and the comparisons to Beltre would be more relevant.

 

But 1) Williams would never trade him as long as he's GM, 2) His upside to contribute offense to the Sox in 2013-2014-2015 and beyond has a greater value to the Sox than almost any other team, particularly knowing you're probably going to be losing offense at catcher too with AJ leaving.

 

This doesnt make sense to me, why would he have less value in LF if the average LF has a .724 OPS whereas Im sure the average 3B has a higher one....It should be the other way around.

 

 

And all of those guys like Jon Rauch, Danny Wright and Matt Ginter being top prospects in 2000 turned into what exactly?

 

And where was Mark Buehrle on that same list in 1999 and 2000? Outside of the Top 100.

 

It's like those football and basketball recruiting rankings, it's ONE benchmark or indictator, but the fact that he was rated 30th versus 15th or whatever doesn't mean much. Look at Borchard's peak rating, for example. Fields, Brian Anderson, etc.

 

I with you on that I was just pointing out that when you rank over 2000 minor leaguers 30's is a pretty good ranking.

 

[iamshack]

I'm confused. Now we're talking about trading Dayan Viciedo for a young hitter with some upside? Isn't that Dayan Viciedo? And who is this magical trade partner? Don't teams trading for young talent usually want to give up expensive veterans? Why do we want expensive veterans?

I don't think anyone's said that specifically.

 

Trade him for someone you like more than Dayan...it's not as if we couldn't use more valuable assets.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I'm confused. Now we're talking about trading Dayan Viciedo for a young hitter with some upside? Isn't that Dayan Viciedo? And who is this magical trade partner? Don't teams trading for young talent usually want to give up expensive veterans? Why do we want expensive veterans?

 

 

Yup its pretty ridiculous.

 

 

[Jake]

He needs to produce above a sub -.600 ops when he's not on a "hot streak."

 

We don't know what the "usual" Dayan Viciedo is. The minor league Viciedo seemed to be a ~.300 BA, 25 HR, 100 RBI guy in a 162 game schedule. That was a young man in a new country, so I have to wonder if his ceiling at this level is even higher as he gets older and better at baseball. You sure as hell aren't going to acquire someone with more physical tools.

 

You guys are going to have to get off the nuts of the OPS stat, btw. Don't know why that is the foundation of comparing offensive players.

[South Side Fireworks Man]

Beckham, Morel and finding a catcher for next season are MUCH bigger problems.

Just re-sign AJ.

[shakes]

To whom? You?

Yes. To me it is crazy. What do you expect to get for him? His best value is to stay with the team and give him a chance to realize his potential. I don't want to go the A's route and trade young players for multiple younger players. Let him develop. Doesn't matter, Kenny went out on a limb with Dayan and he isn't bailing now.

[Jake]

Just re-sign AJ.

 

If he doesn't cost much, I'm not against it, at least knowing what I know now. He would still likely have some trade value next year if things don't work out or we have someone pushing for time in the minors.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Just re-sign AJ.

 

 

I'm not opposed to this...If this year is a failure like everyone here expects (Im still a month away from calling them a failure) I really wanna see if Tyler can be a big league hitter, if he fails and Phegley is still doing well in AAA then see if he can be an everyday catcher. If were not expecting to contend next year then catcher should not be a problem next year. If we are resign AJ.

Edited May 18, 2012 by 2nd_city_saint787

[iamshack]

We don't know what the "usual" Dayan Viciedo is. The minor league Viciedo seemed to be a ~.300 BA, 25 HR, 100 RBI guy in a 162 game schedule. That was a young man in a new country, so I have to wonder if his ceiling at this level is even higher as he gets older and better at baseball. You sure as hell aren't going to acquire someone with more physical tools.

 

You guys are going to have to get off the nuts of the OPS stat, btw. Don't know why that is the foundation of comparing offensive players.

A lot of minor league players have put up those numbers. Doesn't mean much.

 

As for the OPS stat, you can use whatever stats you'd like...just make sure they account for his on-base challenges...

 

As for his physical tools...he hits the s*** out of the ball...when he squares it up on pitches he actually has a chance to hit hard...problem is, he swings as hard as he can at basically every pitch he decides to swing at...and I don't know that that will ever change.

 

But, I accept your opinion that it may.

 

I'm just stating my opinion that I think it won't.

[iamshack]

Yes. To me it is crazy. What do you expect to get for him? His best value is to stay with the team and give him a chance to realize his potential. I don't want to go the A's route and trade young players for multiple younger players. Let him develop. Doesn't matter, Kenny went out on a limb with Dayan and he isn't bailing now.

I agree in regards to Kenny.

 

One other point...anyone who reads what I have been posting here for the past 6 years knows I do not often talk about trading our young players...and I've also been accused of being one of the more optimistic posters here...and always slurping the kool-aid...so I think it's pretty clear that I'm not just pulling the Debbie Downer routine, or the trade everyone routine, or the everyone in a White Sox uniform sucks routine.