Viciedo Not Worth The Wait

[2nd_city_saint787]

I agree in regards to Kenny.

 

One other point...anyone who reads what I have been posting here for the past 6 years knows I do not often talk about trading our young players...and I've also been accused of being one of the more optimistic posters here...and always slurping the kool-aid...so I think it's pretty clear that I'm not just pulling the Debbie Downer routine, or the trade everyone routine, or the everyone in a White Sox uniform sucks routine.

 

 

Then why start now??

[Chicago White Sox]

As for the OPS stat, you can use whatever stats you'd like...just make sure they account for his on-base challenges...

He's a god damn 23 year old Cuban. He came to this country with almost no discipline, yet he's already made significant progress. Last year as a 22 year in AAA he walked in 8.9% of his PAs and posted a .364 OBP. That's f***ing great for a young, aggressive hitter like himself. His on-base percentage will grow as he continues to become a more selective hitter. Again, I'm not sure what peoples' beef is with Viciedo. For some reason people like to ignore the progress he made last year.

[caulfield12]

Not to mention that Viciedo hurt his wrist in the middle of the year, wasn't able to show what he could when he was the hottest hitter in minor league baseball for six weeks (see Pierre, Juan and Rios, Alex blocking him) and the fact that we didn't see a healthy Dayan in very limited late season at-bats is being held against him now (never received regular playing time under a stubborn Guillen, except for maybe 2-3 weeks in 2010).

 

Everyone expects or has come to expect slow starts out of Viciedo and Ramirez...whatever the reason, it always seems to happen with both of them since 2008/09.

Edited May 18, 2012 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

This doesnt make sense to me, why would he have less value in LF if the average LF has a .724 OPS whereas Im sure the average 3B has a higher one....It should be the other way around.

 

 

 

 

I with you on that I was just pointing out that when you rank over 2000 minor leaguers 30's is a pretty good ranking.

 

 

I could be wrong, but I would guess the average 3B OPS HAS to be lower than 724.

 

I'm guessing 675-710.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

I could be wrong, but I would guess the average 3B OPS HAS to be lower than 724.

 

I'm guessing 675-710.

 

I can't find the link. But the average OPS for 3B last year was .688.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I could be wrong, but I would guess the average 3B OPS HAS to be lower than 724.

 

I'm guessing 675-710.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/lf/sort/OPS

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/OPS

s

12 3b above .725/ 10 LF above .725 but you look to be right as theres more 3B over .800....me thinking .725 was low confused me lol i play a lot of fantasy baseball so I dont really know squat about anything outside of BA HR RBIs and RUNs and I admit that.

Edited May 18, 2012 by 2nd_city_saint787

[caulfield12]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/lf/sort/OPS

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/3b/sort/OPS

s

12 3b above .725/ 10 LF above .725 but you look to be right as theres more 3B over .800....me thinking .725 was low confused me lol i play a lot of fantasy baseball so I dont really know squat about anything outside of BA HR RBIs and RUNs and I admit that.

 

 

You have to consider that only 17/30 teams have qualifying 3B.

 

So that also tells you the average for 3B would be a bit lower because the assumption is a lot of those plate appearances (for non-qualifiers) are ending up between 500-700 OPS (see Brent Morel, even lower) but they're not hitting well enough to play everyday, so they're showing up in the combined/aggregate stats for the position.

Edited May 18, 2012 by caulfield12

[ScottyDo]

I don't think anyone's said that specifically.

 

Trade him for someone you like more than Dayan...it's not as if we couldn't use more valuable assets.

I just don't know how you trade Dayan Viciedo straight-up for someone better than Dayan Viciedo. It's not like a veteran, where you can trade current production for future production, because you'll be trading for someone the same age or older than Dayan. And it's not like that helps us in the future.

 

Look, I'm not in love with the guy, but you can't just go to the league office and say "upgrade, please!" with your palm out.

[Marty34]

So if Viciedo doesn't turn into the next Ordonez (or better) will he be a disappointment?

[southsider2k5]

It's a month and a half into his first full season. Relax. Or f*** it. Just trade him, he is too inconsistant in his first 215 pro at bats. Do you realize how this sounds?

 

Two words. Paul.Konerko. He was that inconsistent for probably his first 2000 ABs.

[LittleHurt05]

So if Viciedo doesn't turn into the next Ordonez (or better) will he be a disappointment?

 

He already tied him with 12 career homers, so I'd say he will probably be better than his fellow countryman. Although Ordonez was much better defensively of course.

Edited May 18, 2012 by LittleHurt05

[Dick Allen]

Two words. Paul.Konerko. He was that inconsistent for probably his first 2000 ABs.

This is a good call. Konerko came to the Sox when he was 23. In the NL he hit :

 

224 AB

7 HR

17 BB

42 K

.214 AVG

.275 OBP

.601 OPS

 

Its amazing how many people want the Sox to totally rebuild but don't have the slightest patience with young players.

Edited May 18, 2012 by Dick Allen

[iamshack]

You guys can make all the comparisons you want...that's perfectly ok with me.

 

Again, I hope you're right, because I don't think Kenny will move him.

 

This isn't about patience with me. It's about trading someone while he has high value while keeping in mind the high attrition rate for prospects as well as my particular opinion in this case. I just don't love his approach, despite his massive power.

 

And ss2k, before you even say it, yes, I understand people are going to disagree with me. I've got absolutely no quarrel with that. But I can live without the veiled insults or the implication that I'm a lunatic. I think I've got enough of a body of work around here to get a little slack when it comes to opining on WS players without playing devil's advocate or being negative to be negative.

 

 

[iamshack]

This is a good call. Konerko came to the Sox when he was 23. In the NL he hit :

 

224 AB

7 HR

17 BB

42 K

.214 AVG

.275 OBP

.601 OPS

 

Its amazing how many people want the Sox to totally rebuild but don't have the slightest patience with young players.

Really though, comparing two guys because they happen to be on the Sox and also are fairly slow power hitters doesn't really make them alike at all.

 

I'm not going to pretend as though I saw it with Gordon, and in fact, if you really looked, you'd find a thread where I suggested we sign Gordon to a Evan Longoria-type deal in 2009, where we bought out a few of his arbitration and FA years, but are you glad we have showed this much patience with him? Do you wish we could go back now and trade him when he was one of the most-hyped young players in the League?

[ScottyDo]

You guys can make all the comparisons you want...that's perfectly ok with me.

 

Again, I hope you're right, because I don't think Kenny will move him.

 

This isn't about patience with me. It's about trading someone while he has high value while keeping in mind the high attrition rate for prospects as well as my particular opinion in this case. I just don't love his approach, despite his massive power.

 

And ss2k, before you even say it, yes, I understand people are going to disagree with me. I've got absolutely no quarrel with that. But I can live without the veiled insults or the implication that I'm a lunatic. I think I've got enough of a body of work around here to get a little slack when it comes to opining on WS players without playing devil's advocate or being negative to be negative.

If that's a reference my way, I apologize. I was mostly being snide for the sake of humor, I'm generally down with your opinions and have respect for them even in the odd case where I disagree.

[ScottyDo]

Really though, comparing two guys because they happen to be on the Sox and also are fairly slow power hitters doesn't really make them alike at all.

 

I'm not going to pretend as though I saw it with Gordon, and in fact, if you really looked, you'd find a thread where I suggested we sign Gordon to a Evan Longoria-type deal in 2009, where we bought out a few of his arbitration and FA years, but are you glad we have showed this much patience with him? Do you wish we could go back now and trade him when he was one of the most-hyped young players in the League?

I just don't think Viciedo has the trade value now that Beckham did then. At that point, Beckham was selected as the best 2B of the next decade by some MLB.tv segment. You could have traded him for something decent. I just don't think Viciedo will net you that much, because he didn't zoom through the minors and perform exceptionally in the majors immediately like Gordon did.

[iamshack]

I just don't think Viciedo has the trade value now that Beckham did then. At that point, Beckham was selected as the best 2B of the next decade by some MLB.tv segment. You could have traded him for something decent. I just don't think Viciedo will net you that much, because he didn't zoom through the minors and perform exceptionally in the majors immediately like Gordon did.

No, you're right, he doesn't...but if he goes on a hot streak for a prolonged amount of time and starts raising awareness, he could certainly be valuable by the trade deadline.

 

Part of what you guys are saying though is humorous to me...Viciedo doesn't have all that much value on the market, but you'd be crazy to trade a guy with these kind of skills! Well which is it? Why is his value what it is on the market? If he is such an incredible hitting prospect, why do the rest of the scouts not see it?

[ScottyDo]

No, you're right, he doesn't...but if he goes on a hot streak for a prolonged amount of time and starts raising awareness, he could certainly be valuable by the trade deadline.

 

Part of what you guys are saying though is humorous to me...Viciedo doesn't have all that much value on the market, but you'd be crazy to trade a guy with these kind of skills! Well which is it? Why is his value what it is on the market? If he is such an incredible hitting prospect, why do the rest of the scouts not see it?

I suppose I could be totally off-base, but think there are times when your upside exceeds your trade value, and there are times when your trade value exceeds your upside. For instance, the Cubs might be able to get something for LeHair right now. Right now, my general feeling is that the league knows Viciedo has shown little ability to handle the fastball, and until such a time as he does, won't give up much for him. At that point, I'd rather just see what he's got. Maybe he'll change his approach and find consistent success. If so, perhaps you're right and he's a trade candidate.

[Jake]

No, you're right, he doesn't...but if he goes on a hot streak for a prolonged amount of time and starts raising awareness, he could certainly be valuable by the trade deadline.

 

Part of what you guys are saying though is humorous to me...Viciedo doesn't have all that much value on the market, but you'd be crazy to trade a guy with these kind of skills! Well which is it? Why is his value what it is on the market? If he is such an incredible hitting prospect, why do the rest of the scouts not see it?

 

Just to clarify: this is all based on the premise that DV won't be a very good player, right? Or at least, not the player that his prospect status suggests he will be.

[southsider2k5]

No, you're right, he doesn't...but if he goes on a hot streak for a prolonged amount of time and starts raising awareness, he could certainly be valuable by the trade deadline.

 

Part of what you guys are saying though is humorous to me...Viciedo doesn't have all that much value on the market, but you'd be crazy to trade a guy with these kind of skills! Well which is it? Why is his value what it is on the market? If he is such an incredible hitting prospect, why do the rest of the scouts not see it?

 

the last time I heard a player value put on Dayan was when Washington was asking for him and Jackson for Dunn.

[Dick Allen]

Isn't the final objective to have a roster full of guys that are at their "peak value" ?

 

If you trade Viciedo because you deem his value is high, aren't the guys you acquire going to have high value as well so using the same logic, you'd have to move the player(s) you acquired until you got someone at not peak value, which IMO leads to a mediocre at best organization. TB did make a good move ridding themselves of Delmon Young, so I guess it doesn't ever happen, but in the post steroids era, guys who can hit 30 homers aren't everywhere, and Viciedo doesn't appear to have the other problems Young had.

[Dick Allen]

No, you're right, he doesn't...but if he goes on a hot streak for a prolonged amount of time and starts raising awareness, he could certainly be valuable by the trade deadline.

 

Part of what you guys are saying though is humorous to me...Viciedo doesn't have all that much value on the market, but you'd be crazy to trade a guy with these kind of skills! Well which is it? Why is his value what it is on the market? If he is such an incredible hitting prospect, why do the rest of the scouts not see it?

But then isn't saying get rid of him because he won't pan out and expecting anything decent in return the same thing?

[elrockinMT]

I believe Dick Allen is correct. We seem to have very little patience for our young players with hype to perform. Expereience sometimes is what you have to wait to come before you have success. We want them to be Babe Ruth right away. The argument of trading a young player while value is supposedly high doesn't make sense to me. The idea of bringing up younger players is in many cases to start rebulding. Why trade our good young players with potential for somebody else's players? Let's build from within our own system with our own talent. And I know someone will respond with the argument that we have to trade our folks becsue they just haven't panned out yet. Well, if that is true then why would another team want them anyway and be willing to give up their talent?

[iamshack]

But then isn't saying get rid of him because he won't pan out and expecting anything decent in return the same thing?

No. I haven't argued he isn't worth anything. I've argued that we should trade him when he gets hot for something else we value. The common answer to that is that he doesn't have a lot of value on the trade market. To which I asked, why?

[iamshack]

Isn't the final objective to have a roster full of guys that are at their "peak value" ?

 

If you trade Viciedo because you deem his value is high, aren't the guys you acquire going to have high value as well so using the same logic, you'd have to move the player(s) you acquired until you got someone at not peak value, which IMO leads to a mediocre at best organization. TB did make a good move ridding themselves of Delmon Young, so I guess it doesn't ever happen, but in the post steroids era, guys who can hit 30 homers aren't everywhere, and Viciedo doesn't appear to have the other problems Young had.

No, your final objective is to have a roster full of players you can afford that produces at their optimal collective rate, so that you win.

 

Prospects and proven players are valued differently, obviously. Prospects are valued based on their ceiling, their potential to blossom into an average or above average major league player, their risk of injury, signability, etc...

 

Proven players are valued based on their expected performance, and to a lesser extent some other qualities, versus their compensation.