Viciedo Not Worth The Wait

[Dick Allen]

No. I haven't argued he isn't worth anything. I've argued that we should trade him when he gets hot for something else we value. The common answer to that is that he doesn't have a lot of value on the trade market. To which I asked, why?

But you're saying his "value" will increase because he gets hot, implying in the long run he'll never be "worth" more than he will be after a hot streak now. So you have taken the same argument, but just the opposite position, and if the premise of the argument is silly, then both sides would be silly.

 

I think its logical to hang on to your best young players when you are rebuilding unless you are offerred something crazy or unless they have some issues like Delmon Young had/has issues.

Edited May 18, 2012 by Dick Allen

[Balta1701]

But you're saying his "value" will increase because he gets hot, implying in the long run he'll never be "worth" more than he will be after a hot streak now.

 

I think its logical to hang on to your best young players when you are rebuilding unless you are offerred something crazy or unless they have some issues like Delmon Young had/has issues.

And don't forget, the Rays got back 2 legitimate cost-controlled pieces, one of whom was a first round drafted pitcher, for Young.

[iamshack]

But you're saying his "value" will increase because he gets hot, implying in the long run he'll never be "worth" more than he will be after a hot streak now.

 

I think its logical to hang on to your best young players when you are rebuilding unless you are offerred something crazy or unless they have some issues like Delmon Young had/has issues.

Prospects can have incredible value due to the uncertainty as to what they will ultimately become...the possibility that Viciedo could become the next Adrian Beltre, in a cost-controlled environment, can make him incredibly valuable. If he shows a glimpse of that at the MLB level, it may be enough to convince another scout or GM. But if you honestly don't believe he will become that kind of player, say, you think he ultimately resembles Wily Mo Pena more than Adrian Beltre, than you trade him while there are still other GMs that believe he will become the next Adrian Beltre.

 

This isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

 

It's merely trying to sell high on a stock you think will inevitably be a dog.

 

Now many of you are arguing that the stock is going to be a winner, and not a dog...and that's fine, and a completely different argument.

 

All I'm saying is I think the stock is a dog, and I want to sell it before that becomes apparent.

 

But at the same time, you're telling me the rest of the market is looking at the stock as a dog too...and not really explaining to me why that is...

[dyuen]

Prospects can have incredible value due to the uncertainty as to what they will ultimately become...the possibility that Viciedo could become the next Adrian Beltre, in a cost-controlled environment, can make him incredibly valuable. If he shows a glimpse of that at the MLB level, it may be enough to convince another scout or GM. But if you honestly don't believe he will become that kind of player, say, you think he ultimately resembles Wily Mo Pena more than Adrian Beltre, than you trade him while there are still other GMs that believe he will become the next Adrian Beltre.

 

This isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

 

It's merely trying to sell high on a stock you think will inevitably be a dog.

 

Now many of you are arguing that the stock is going to be a winner, and not a dog...and that's fine, and a completely different argument.

 

All I'm saying is I think the stock is a dog, and I want to sell it before that becomes apparent.

 

But at the same time, you're telling me the rest of the market is looking at the stock as a dog too...and not really explaining to me why that is...

but what kind of dog do you think he is? you wouldn't sell him if he was blur!

[Marty34]

This is a good call. Konerko came to the Sox when he was 23. In the NL he hit :

 

224 AB

7 HR

17 BB

42 K

.214 AVG

.275 OBP

.601 OPS

 

Its amazing how many people want the Sox to totally rebuild but don't have the slightest patience with young players.

 

What were Konerko's minor league numbers compared to Viciedo's?

[iamshack]

but what kind of dog do you think he is? you wouldn't sell him if he was blur!

Blur is very similar to Evan Longoria...

[Jake]

Prospects can have incredible value due to the uncertainty as to what they will ultimately become...the possibility that Viciedo could become the next Adrian Beltre, in a cost-controlled environment, can make him incredibly valuable. If he shows a glimpse of that at the MLB level, it may be enough to convince another scout or GM. But if you honestly don't believe he will become that kind of player, say, you think he ultimately resembles Wily Mo Pena more than Adrian Beltre, than you trade him while there are still other GMs that believe he will become the next Adrian Beltre.

 

This isn't a difficult concept to grasp.

 

It's merely trying to sell high on a stock you think will inevitably be a dog.

 

Now many of you are arguing that the stock is going to be a winner, and not a dog...and that's fine, and a completely different argument.

 

All I'm saying is I think the stock is a dog, and I want to sell it before that becomes apparent.

 

But at the same time, you're telling me the rest of the market is looking at the stock as a dog too...and not really explaining to me why that is...

 

I see it this way...no one is looking at Viciedo like he's going to be a flop.

 

But, since he has started out slowly...they can get on the phone with KW and say sure, he's talented but we aren't sure he's going to pan out. They have some evidence to back up what may ultimately be a complete bluff. You're always trying to convince the other GM that you don't think their piece is very good (or as good as the player's GM thinks he is) --- sometimes there is little evidence to back this up. In Dayan's case, you have a slow start to back up that claim.

 

Imagine the Angels calling about Beckham. Scioscia supposedly loves Gordon Beckham and we'll assume he thinks Gordon would be a fine player if he could just coach him. When the Angels call, they aren't going to say that to KW. They will remind KW about all of that non-production we've gotten from GB.

 

It's like playing poker. With a prospect, none of your cards are showing. The cards on the table look good, good enough for a royal flush. But what do you have? They don't know, but they know you're excited enough to bet your future on this player. A veteran is like having your cards showing -- we know what that guy does in the MLB. Dayan is in between. You see a card, but not all of them.

 

This may only make sense in my mind....

 

Edited May 18, 2012 by Jake

[ILMOU]

Its amazing how many people want the Sox to totally rebuild but don't have the slightest patience with young players.

 

This. x10,000

 

The Konerko comparison is as good as any. A few here act like what DV is now is what he will always be, when we've got a guy right under our noses who's STILL evolving/improving in his mid-to-late thirties.

 

But as I said early in the thread, I'm pretty sure Marty is just playing the "genius" card with this idea, trying to be ahead of the curve (sample size be damned), when it's becoming pretty clear that most of us missed badly in our Beckham evaluations.

[iamshack]

This. x10,000

 

The Konerko comparison is as good as any. A few here act like what DV is now is what he will always be, when we've got a guy right under our noses who's STILL evolving/improving in his mid-to-late thirties.

 

But as I said early in the thread, I'm pretty sure Marty is just playing the "genius" card with this idea, trying to be ahead of the curve (sample size be damned), when it's becoming pretty clear that most of us missed badly in our Beckham evaluations.

I'd say PK is the vast vast vast exception, not the rule.

[ILMOU]

I'd say PK is the vast vast vast exception, not the rule.

 

My point is that improvement happens. You and Marty would have traded Matt Kemp two years ago when he was being called a disappointment, not living up to the hype.

 

Whoops!

[iamshack]

My point is that improvement happens. You and Marty would have traded Matt Kemp two years ago when he was being called a disappointment, not living up to the hype.

 

Whoops!

Absolutely not...you watch Kemp and you can tell he's got incredible skills and all five tools...the only question with him is whether or not his head is in the right place. When he was dating Rihanna, I don't think it was...

 

Kemp would be a guy I would have been in love with...

 

For me, this isn't about the patience required or the struggles...it's just about what I see when I watch Viciedo play. OTH, I am certainly not a professional scout, so absolutely take that with a grain of salt.

[Princess Dye]

I can't read threads sometimes, which I know means I should not post...but stop me if this is a misread of the situation:

 

Konerko was thought of very highly as a young-young player, in part due to his catching, and was drafted in the first round.

 

When Viciedo was young-young, every team had a shot at him, and he did not command a giant initial contract....thus him developing into a Paulie would be quite the shock down the road. But also not as much was known about him.

[Dick Allen]

I can't read threads sometimes, which I know means I should not post...but stop me if this is a misread of the situation:

 

Konerko was thought of very highly as a young-young player, in part due to his catching, and was drafted in the first round.

 

When Viciedo was young-young, every team had a shot at him, and he did not command a giant initial contract....thus him developing into a Paulie would be quite the shock down the road. But also not as much was known about him.

As a teen he got $10 million, more than double what Alexei Ramirez received.

[Princess Dye]

Yeah, but Alexei was barely pursued by anyone.

 

If I'm not mistaken, there were multiple bidders for Viciedo, but we didn't really have to pay tons for him. So someone on the other MLB teams saw a problem with him, hence the holding back of offers....and I envision us being the ones who overpaid to make it happen.

 

An earlier, cheaper Cespedes situation.

Edited May 18, 2012 by Jose Paniagua

[ILMOU]

When Viciedo was young-young, every team had a shot at him, and he did not command a giant initial contract....thus him developing into a Paulie would be quite the shock down the road. But also not as much was known about him.

 

The market for the Cubans has changed, and is continuing to change. The relative success of Lexi, and specifically the huge bargain that he turned out to be, made money for all of the ones who followed, including DV. Kendry(s) M also had some success. The drastic overpay that Chapman looks to be (though he could still figure it out) probably tempers some of the enthusiasm, and the market will change again when we see what DV, Cespedes, Soler and others do over the long haul.

 

DV's contract was pretty healthy at the time we signed him.

[Jake]

I can't read threads sometimes, which I know means I should not post...but stop me if this is a misread of the situation:

 

Konerko was thought of very highly as a young-young player, in part due to his catching, and was drafted in the first round.

 

When Viciedo was young-young, every team had a shot at him, and he did not command a giant initial contract....thus him developing into a Paulie would be quite the shock down the road. But also not as much was known about him.

 

So imagine Paulie's draft status if everyone knew he'd someday be an immobile first baseman.

 

Everyone looked at Dayan and realized he wasn't quite a shortstop anymore, lol The fact that he seemed destined for corner OF and perhaps even 1B/DH hurt his value.

 

Very hard to differentiate yourself from lots of other big, strong 1B/DH types without just hitting at the big league level.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Harold Reynolds on MLBtv "This a guy the sox have got to give this kid 500 ABs to see what he is cause he will hit them 35 HR". How does a team "rebuilding" give up a 23 year old with 35 HR potential? It just makes zero sense to me. Trading him can just NOT happen this year.

 

 

 

-Delmon Young was traded because he was a head case.

 

 

 

 

 

[Marty34]

My point is that improvement happens. You and Marty would have traded Matt Kemp two years ago when he was being called a disappointment, not living up to the hype.

 

Whoops!

 

Everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring Viciedo's minor league stats when they throw out Kemp or Konerko as examples. Those guys hit better than Viciedo at every level.

[Dick Allen]

Everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring Viciedo's minor league stats when they throw out Kemp or Konerko as examples. Those guys hit better than Viciedo at every level.

He had better numbers than Magglio Ordonez, so he must be better than him.

[southsider2k5]

Everyone seems to be conveniently ignoring Viciedo's minor league stats when they throw out Kemp or Konerko as examples. Those guys hit better than Viciedo at every level.

 

I'm also pretty sure that Dayan was younger than both at all levels, and neither of them came from Cuba and had to learn a new language and culture all at once.

[Jake]

I'm also pretty sure that Dayan was younger than both at all levels, and neither of them came from Cuba and had to learn a new language and culture all at once.

 

And still: Dayan Viciedo's AAA statistics were...205 games/795 AB/.287 BA/.341 OBP/40 HR/125 RBI

 

All 22 years old and younger.

[Marty34]

He had better numbers than Magglio Ordonez, so he must be better than him.

 

It's a better comparison than Kemp or Konerko.

[caulfield12]

Yeah, but Alexei was barely pursued by anyone.

 

If I'm not mistaken, there were multiple bidders for Viciedo, but we didn't really have to pay tons for him. So someone on the other MLB teams saw a problem with him, hence the holding back of offers....and I envision us being the ones who overpaid to make it happen.

 

An earlier, cheaper Cespedes situation.

 

It was also the biggest signing bonus/salary ever given in baseball history to Latin American position prospect under the age of 20 or even 25...and I'm pretty sure it still is 3 1/2 years later.

 

Cespedes was already in the prime of his career and had a ton of international playing experience and scouting exposure.

 

The Soler contract will eclipse the Viciedo one, largely because of the unique market situation at this particular moment with the bonus pools, his five tool talent and the fact that he's the last impact player available to every team before the new rules take affect.

 

But he's a matter of weeks away from missing that deadline and losing quite a bit of money.

 

 

 

 

[Marty34]

I'm also pretty sure that Dayan was younger than both at all levels, and neither of them came from Cuba and had to learn a new language and culture all at once.

 

Not young enough to make up for the descrepancy in numbers.

 

[Balta1701]

Not young enough to make up for the descrepancy in numbers.

Can you please plot for me the appropriate relationship between how young a person is relative to average for a particular level and how far above average their performance needs to be to satisfy you.