Chris Sale is now the CLOSER?!/Until he's not (Update)

[Kyyle23]

Smoltz has been suggested as an example

 

Smoltz still had Tommy John surgery, so its not like the Pen saved him from that.

 

Its being assumed that there is nothing that needs fixing now, but if they continue on the same path, something real bad will happen. He might still get hurt, but its probably safe to assume his chances of avoiding the knife is best served coming out of the bullpen.

 

The White Sox have more information than we have. They also would rather have Sale as a starter than reliever. They didn't make this decision on a whim.

 

I get that the Sox know more than me, but from what we are presented here it isnt very logical. If you look at a guy and forecast an injury based on a one month set of starts, then what the hell is it going to help putting him in the pen where he is going to be in high stress situations every time, he pitches throwing harder than he does as a starter and being more reliant on his puttaway/junk pitches to get out of innings?

 

You can believe the Sox are privy to more information, but that doesnt help this decision make any more sense to me.

[Reddy]

Its being assumed that there is nothing that needs fixing now, but if they continue on the same path, something real bad will happen. He might still get hurt, but its probably safe to assume his chances of avoiding the knife is best served coming out of the bullpen.

 

The White Sox have more information than we have. They also would rather have Sale as a starter than reliever. They didn't make this decision on a whim.

They very much DID make this decision on a whim. They could've DL'd him and had 2 weeks to talk about it!!! lol

[caulfield12]

The Tigers announcers were:

 

1) Thanking their lucky stars that Sale wasn't facing them

2) Wondering how when a closer would need to warm up quickly 3-4-5 times per week...and going maximum velocity/full effort for 10-15-20-25 pitches each appearance, how in any way, shape or form that would reduce the stress on the elbow.

 

There's the bad mechanics stress (human anatomy/physiology versus physics), and there is the slider torque issue to deal with as well. Are they going to eliminate that pitch from his repertoire? How much would his effectiveness be eliminated in that situation as a result?

 

Where is PTAC to make a insightful comment on this entire situation? Haven't seen him around here recently, this is one of the more fascinating "injury" debates probably in recent White Sox history, since an injury hasn't even happened.

[Reddy]

The Tigers announcers were:

 

1) Thanking their lucky stars that Sale wasn't facing them

2) Wondering how when a closer would need to warm up quickly 3-4-5 times per week...and going maximum velocity/full effort for 10-15-20-25 pitches each appearance, how in any way, shape or form that would reduce the stress on the elbow.

 

There's the bad mechanics stress (human anatomy/physiology versus physics), and there is the slider torque issue to deal with as well. Are they going to eliminate that pitch from his repertoire? How much would his effectiveness be eliminated in that situation as a result?

 

Where is PTAC to make a insightful comment on this entire situation? Haven't seen him around here recently, this is one of the more fascinating "injury" debates probably in recent White Sox history, since an injury hasn't even happened.

 

i was wondering this myself. he could probably settle this whole argument

 

[Cali]

Nothing seems right about this... If he's hurt shut him down. Pretty simple its what 100% of the teams in the MLB would do. He's hurt so he'll close makes zero sense. If I was everyone in the bullpen besides Stewart and Ohman, I'd be pissed. Addison Reed can't close cause Sale's arm is sore? That's 2 + 2= A Basket of Kittens.

 

I also can't believe after Spring and One month his arm is already s***. I'll never understand how a pitcher can make it through high school and college with the same mechanics, pitch well enough to get drafted then through the minors up to the bigs and suddenly BAM! arm troubles. Same thing happened with Strasburg in 2010...

[caulfield12]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/w...ing-in-chicago/

 

Kind of makes the White Sox look a bit silly for naming Sale when Reed has been there all along (and also for picking Santiago over Reed in the first place)...why they wouldn't made Sale into Alexi Ogando type who can pitch anywhere from the 5th-8th and going with the more traditionally-groomed RH closer.

 

 

 

 

So we know that Chris Sale the reliever is pretty darn awesome. Just last season in 2010, we saw a similarly skilled reliever named C.J. Wilson be successfully converted into a starter. He also induced lots of grounders and possessed good strikeout ability, while his control was somewhat lacking as well. Of course, Sale throws quite a bit harder than Wilson, but the underlying skills were not too different. Although Wilson has managed to throw over 200 innings these past two seasons, the stamina issue will likely be Sale’s biggest hurdle and will put a ceiling on his ultimate fantasy value.

 

Pitchers obviously lose velocity when starting versus relieving. Though it varies by pitcher, the drop-off is typically in the 2-3 mile per hour range. That would still allow Sale to average around 93.0 miles per hour with his fastball, which would be excellent for a lefty. The velocity decline is one factor that contributes to relievers losing about 15%-20% of their K% upon the move to starting. That would bring Sale’s K% down to around 23% to 24.5%. The below handy table published by Carson Cistulli over the summer suggests this would correspond to a strikeout rate of a bit below 9.0.

 

The good news for Sale is that while the strikeout rate does drop, so does BB% by a similar rate. Applying the same 15%-20% range, we find that Sale would see his BB/9 improve to around league average territory of 3.1. Given that his career F-Strike% is already just about at the league average, this would seem like a reasonable expectation.

 

So mixing those numbers together, the best comparables to Sale’s skill set are Josh Johnson, Jon Lester and C.J. Wilson. That’s pretty wonderful company. It would be unwise to project his performance to rival those pitchers in his first year as a starter, of course, but it tells you just how strong his skill package is. Sale also doesn’t face the problem that gets most relievers banished to the bullpen in the first place; he actually has three pitches. As alluded to earlier, he will likely have an innings limit, so his value is going to be capped. Many of you play in daily transactions leagues that has an innings maximum, though, which requires you to value pitchers based on per inning ratios. Sale is going to be a steal in those leagues. In standard weekly transaction leagues, he still has great profit potential.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...le-the-starter/

Here's the whole article

Edited May 7, 2012 by caulfield12

[Texsox]

And no one here knows all of the information that the Sox are privy too. Just sayin.

 

 

This

[ptatc]

The Tigers announcers were:

 

1) Thanking their lucky stars that Sale wasn't facing them

2) Wondering how when a closer would need to warm up quickly 3-4-5 times per week...and going maximum velocity/full effort for 10-15-20-25 pitches each appearance, how in any way, shape or form that would reduce the stress on the elbow.

 

There's the bad mechanics stress (human anatomy/physiology versus physics), and there is the slider torque issue to deal with as well. Are they going to eliminate that pitch from his repertoire? How much would his effectiveness be eliminated in that situation as a result?

 

Where is PTAC to make a insightful comment on this entire situation? Haven't seen him around here recently, this is one of the more fascinating "injury" debates probably in recent White Sox history, since an injury hasn't even happened.

I'm right in the middle of coaching my son's lacrosse season so I've been busy. There are primarily 2 ways to incur this type of elbow injury. This first is just overuse. The second is mechanical. With Sale it's hard to tell which one it is because he has not been a starter at this level or with this intensity.

The Detroit announcers logic is somewhat flawed as when the pitcher is warming up he isn't throwing hard for all of those and he isn't throwing the variety of pitches in great numbers. Sale's mechanics with that lower arm slot will tend to put alot of stress on the elbow. My guess is that the Sox feel he will throw fewer sliders out of the bullpen. He'll still throw them but he can throw harder in the shorter appearance and see each batter fewer times.

Every time a pitcher throws a pitch there is enough force on the elbow to tear the ulnar collateral ligament. The only thing holding it together is the muscle on the inside of the elbow. We don't know how Sale has responded after each of his starts on his off days. The Sox must feel that they need to limit the number of pitches he throws because of his mechanics. Cooper and Schneider know what they're doing and wouldn't move him if there wasn't trouble going on in between starts.

[Steve9347]

totally. it's obviously not a GIVEN, but my opinion the risk of an injury is worth taking if the benefit is having an ace starter. he could still blow out his arm as a closer.

I agree. Relievers are a dime a dozen.

[Reddy]

I agree. Relievers are a dime a dozen.

i'm glad someone understands baseball.

[Steve9347]

i'm glad someone understands baseball.

I've been this way forever. I pleaded with the Gods for Kenny to deal off Jenks, and the same for that loser Matt Thornton. Dealing Santos was smart, so I like that.

 

Sale looked flat-out dominant as a starting pitcher. They should have gone with baby steps, you know, had him build his pitch count slowly. Instead, they run him out there for

 

88

101

110

102

100

 

pitches to start his MLB starting career. Now, after 5 f***ing games, they've decided to take their most valuable commodity and piss all over his value and decree he's now a closer when the one thing this team had was a closer-in-waiting in Addison Reed.

 

I feel like I'm watching a whirlwind of stupidity, and I want jobs because of this. Some claim overreaction? I claim this is some of the dumbest baseball thinking I've ever seen.

[Jake]

This

 

That

 

Just remember, the White Sox have a much stronger interest in having Sale be a starter than any of us do. I doubt this was purely a whim.

[ptatc]

I agree. Relievers are a dime a dozen.

However, not every player is built to be a starter. Ask the Braves of the 90's about relievers. They won only 1 world series because they couldn't finish games after the starters were out.

[caulfield12]

However, not every player is built to be a starter. Ask the Braves of the 90's about relievers. They won only 1 world series because they couldn't finish games after the starters were out.

 

And their offense was just a player or two short against other dominant pitching in the playoffs, especially in the latter half of those 14 years.

[Dick Allen]

i'm glad someone understands baseball.

Good releivers are not a dime a dozen, and if you don't understand that, you don't understand baseball. How many games have the Sox blown so far this short season without having a true closer? Ask Boston fans about dime a dozen relief pitchers. There aren't a lot of perrenial good ones, but Sale and Reed look like they could be.

Edited May 7, 2012 by Dick Allen

[Jordan4life_2007]

Good releivers are not a dime a dozen, and if you don't understand that, you don't understand baseball. How many games have the Sox blown so far this short season without having a true closer?

 

You've got the elites: Mariano, Joe Nathan from '04 through '09, Billy Wagner, Eric Gagne for a couple years, etc. But putting together a competent bullpen is by far the easiest component to piecemeal together for a franchise. The Rays have done it for like 5 years now.

[hogan873]

I would argue that a very effective closer is as important as a starter. Neither are a dime a dozen by any means, and both are hard to find. I'm upset about Sale not being a starter, as he has looked great, but the Sox are doing this for a reason. If, however, even after this move he needs sugery or blows his elbow out, it's going to look really bad. I hope Sale can step in and be the closer this team has needed for quite a while. What happens with the fifth starter spot, though?

[Dick Allen]

You've got the elites: Mariano, Joe Nathan from '04 through '09, Billy Wagner, Eric Gagne for a couple years, etc. But putting together a competent bullpen is by far the easiest component to piecemeal together for a franchise. The Rays have done it for like 5 years now.

It also can fail miserably and then you are totally screwed. You can have a great offense and great starters, if you're bullpen is bad, you're in a lot of trouble. As Gonzo wrote this morning, Sale and Reed could be Gossage and Forster part II. Not bad, especially considering how important a good bullpen is these days.

[caulfield12]

Or ask the Tigers already this year, or the White Sox in April/May 2011.

 

Last year, Detroit was 77-0 in games they led after 7 innings. Minnesota had similar numbers in 2006, 2009 and 2010.

 

This year, the Tigers have already blown FIVE of those games.

[Jordan4life_2007]

It also can fail miserably and then you are totally screwed. You can have a great offense and great starters, if you're bullpen is bad, you're in a lot of trouble. As Gonzo wrote this morning, Sale and Reed could be Gossage and Forster part II. Not bad, especially considering how important a good bullpen is these days.

 

Um, ok. I'd be happy with Venters and Kimbrel myself. Though the Braves, unlike the Sox, are overflowing when starting pitching, majors and minors.

[Reddy]

It also can fail miserably and then you are totally screwed. You can have a great offense and great starters, if you're bullpen is bad, you're in a lot of trouble. As Gonzo wrote this morning, Sale and Reed could be Gossage and Forster part II. Not bad, especially considering how important a good bullpen is these days.

but dude, we've had elite 7-8-9 guys for YEARS and you know what? they're always DIFFERENT GUYS because they're good one year or 2 years and then flame out after that.

 

relievers are a dime a dozen. I promise you this. beyond Mo, Hoffman, .... and that's it... name me a closer who DIDN'T lose his job as closer at some point in his career. Those two guys are the exception to the very, very clear RULE that closers are NOT WORTH THE MONEY they get paid. and yes, I'll point you to Tampa and Texas as two teams with great scrapped together bullpens. JUST LIKE WE WERE IN 2005! Which of those guys is still a MLB pitcher?

[caulfield12]

It also can fail miserably and then you are totally screwed. You can have a great offense and great starters, if you're bullpen is bad, you're in a lot of trouble. As Gonzo wrote this morning, Sale and Reed could be Gossage and Forster part II. Not bad, especially considering how important a good bullpen is these days.

 

 

And all that's fine and good, unless you look at the team record from 2001-2004 when the 5th starter for the Sox was going.

 

Even with the best bullpen in major league history, with our average offense/defense and question marks at the back end of the rotation (Danks/Humber/#5), a 100% bullpen closeout rate from here on out can't cover up for losing 75-80-85% of the games started by our 5th.

Edited May 7, 2012 by caulfield12

[Balta1701]

Um, ok. I'd be happy with Venters and Kimbrel myself. Though the Braves, unlike the Sox, are overflowing when starting pitching, majors and minors.

And yet, the Braves have the 3rd worst team ERA in the National League.

[Jordan4life_2007]

And yet, the Braves have the 3rd worst team ERA in the National League.

 

Albert Pujols has also been one of the worst players in baseball.

[caulfield12]

but dude, we've had elite 7-8-9 guys for YEARS and you know what? they're always DIFFERENT GUYS because they're good one year or 2 years and then flame out after that.

 

relievers are a dime a dozen. I promise you this. beyond Mo, Hoffman, .... and that's it... name me a closer who DIDN'T lose his job as closer at some point in his career. Those two guys are the exception to the very, very clear RULE that closers are NOT WORTH THE MONEY they get paid. and yes, I'll point you to Tampa and Texas as two teams with great scrapped together bullpens. JUST LIKE WE WERE IN 2005! Which of those guys is still a MLB pitcher?

 

Eckersley with the A's falls into this category as well.

 

But you're talking maybe 5 in major league history. Does anyone think Joe Nathan will make the MLB Hall of Fame?