The Official Deja-Voodoo Torture-Sox thread

[Greg Hibbard]

Awesome post, and you also might want to add that 2008 saw career years from a lot of players also (Quentin, Floyd, Danks, Alexei at the very least).

 

Thanks. Definitely forgot to mention 2008 - lightning in a bottle part 2.

[fathom]

I see you're back on the "We're not rebuilding" side of the fence.

 

Not at all, but it doesn't mean you construct a bench so poorly that when you do give Morel time off, you're benching him with someone who has no business being in the majors (Escobar). I really don't mind Morel playing every game the rest of the way.

[Balta1701]

Not at all, but it doesn't mean you construct a bench so poorly that when you do give Morel time off, you're benching him with someone who has no business being in the majors (Escobar). I really don't mind Morel playing every game the rest of the way.

Don't you pretty much ask for Lillibridge to play over Morel every day and pretty regularly say that it's terrible that Morel is getting playing time?

[NorthSideSox72]

There are similarities to 2009-2011, but you are also ignoring some differences. This team has a lot more developing players on it, for one thing. It has shown, in games they are down, that they often make a run at it late - something the 2010 and 2011 teams seemed to never do.

 

This is the month that determines it. They are playing almost exclusively ALC teams. Once May is over, we'll know what this team is. More importantly, we'll see who some of these PLAYERS are, because this is really about a tryout for 2013, primarily. If they happen to do something in 2012, that's a bonus. I am confident this was the plan all along, and I've been saying it all along.

 

Based on May, KW will start making calls in June, and we'll start to see pieces moving.

 

[fathom]

Don't you pretty much ask for Lillibridge to play over Morel every day and pretty regularly say that it's terrible that Morel is getting playing time?

 

I've asked for Lillibridge to play against any and all lefties, and preferrably for De Aza. I think only time I wanted Lillibridge playing 3rd over Morel was after he had some good moments on the west coast and team was actually playing well. Once the Sox sent Sale to the bullpen, the chance at contending this year went out the window (in my opinion) and I was all for Morel playing every day.

[Balta1701]

I've asked for Lillibridge to play against any and all lefties, and preferrably for De Aza. I think only time I wanted Lillibridge playing 3rd over Morel was after he had some good moments on the west coast and team was actually playing well. Once the Sox sent Sale to the bullpen, the chance at contending this year went out the window (in my opinion) and I was all for Morel playing every day.

Wait, you'd take the one "young guy" under our control for 5 more years who is actually hitting and tell him that he doesn't get to face lefties because his first 20 at bats against them haven't been good enough, so he doesn't get the chance to work on that any more?

[fathom]

Wait, you'd take the one "young guy" under our control for 5 more years who is actually hitting and tell him that he doesn't get to face lefties because his first 20 at bats against them haven't been good enough, so he doesn't get the chance to work on that any more?

 

So are you saying Lillibridge shouldn't get any playing time at all outside of defensive sub and PR? Sure seems like KW could have gotten a lot more value for him this past offseason then. I've never thought De Aza was going to be anything other than a really strong producer against RHP and probably best used in a platoon. Lillibridge would at least give us something other than a terrible defensive center fielder.

Edited May 8, 2012 by fathom

[southsider2k5]

So are you saying Lillibridge shouldn't get any playing time at all outside of defensive sub and PR? Sure seems like KW could have gotten a lot more value for him this past offseason then. I've never thought De Aza was going to be anything other than a really strong producer against RHP and probably best used in a platoon. Lillibridge would at least give us something other than a terrible defensive center fielder.

 

Lillibridge hasn't played CF at all this year. Fukodome has actually been the only other player to play CF on the team this year.

[greg775]

I've been mostly quiet until now, because I've favored a wait and see attitude. When they were 10-6, I didn't quite believe they were that good or lucky. Similarly, during this 3-11 stretch, I certainly don't believe they're this bad or unlucky. At this point, I don't think they can compete as-is, at least not particularly effectively, beyond a lucky win of the division and a very early exit in the playoffs. Maybe that was good enough for me in 2000, but I'm certainly not interested in that now.

 

This is an 79-90 win team, just like the last umpteen teams have been, outside of 2007 and 2005. Williams believes that putting yourself in a position to win 80 games and then getting some breaks is good enough. I guess so, if you are getting some off the chart WARs.

 

It struck me last night how fundamentally unsound Williams' "retool" strategy has been, at the core. It has relied on static parts producing at predicted results, paired with high-variance acquisitions to produce at or near the top of their game. It's a brutally flawed strategy, because it undermines some of the fundamentals of player development. In layman's terms, a lot of dudes in baseball just don't particularly pan out, which is why your Gordon Beckhams, your Brent Morels, your Dayan Viciedos are paired with a s***load of other prospects and brought along in tandem. This is why you bottom out at 95-100 wins for a couple of seasons. You trade talent away, hoard draft picks. and 3 years down the line you know who the the 2-3 diamonds are out of the 20 pieces of coal you throw in your pan. They are still cheap, so you can go out and spend money to get the FA you need to pair with your developed talent. You break the bank for two seasons and put together your attack run. You have a 2 year window, then you break it all down again. Why is this so hard for Kenny to realize?

 

2006-2012 was a series of moves designed to work IF everything fell into place. It's a bulls*** strategy, because it was based on the results of a lucky season. If Williams were a poker player, he'd play A2 suited because THAT was the hand that won him the $2000 tournament, not because it was a sound play to begin with, all things considered. Do I think it was a brilliant season? Yes. Do I commend Williams for his strategy? To a point, yes. We also got no less than 8 career years in 2005, and the playoffs of a lifetime - that still could have brutally swung the other way in the ALCS. Luckily, it didn't. Unluckily, Williams believed his own hype - that he could get career years out of "his guys" like getting water from a well. Ladies and Gents, I give you exhibit A - Scott Linebrink.

 

We need to evaluate Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham and either cast them off as dead weight or give them the tools they need to succeed. We need to understand who Dayan Viciedo and Alejandro De Aza are, and give them the tools they need to succeed or continue to succeed at the major league level. We need to stop f***ing with Chris Sale. We need to fix John Danks. We need to trade everyone who resembles a closer and probably Jake Peavy. Most importantly, we need to stop looking at wins and losses this season, because it is the cancer that prevents us from any sustained long term success. It's one thing to act like the Yankees and go "all in" every year, it's another to half-ass your way to being "competitive" with a lackluster bottom half of the lineup.

 

Great great post, but you said two contradictory things.

You say this team has an upside of actually making the playoffs, yet "we need to stop looking at wins and losses this season."

If you think we can make the playoffs, then we should look at wins and losses cause making the playoffs is a big deal.

 

I'm a little surprised you gave the Sox a chance at making the playoffs. Your whole post makes sense. i'd just think the conclusion would be no chance in hell of the playoffs with this blah team for the reasons you gave.

[Greg Hibbard]

Great great post, but you said two contradictory things.

You say this team has an upside of actually making the playoffs, yet "we need to stop looking at wins and losses this season."

If you think we can make the playoffs, then we should look at wins and losses cause making the playoffs is a big deal.

 

I'm a little surprised you gave the Sox a chance at making the playoffs. Your whole post makes sense. i'd just think the conclusion would be no chance in hell of the playoffs with this blah team for the reasons you gave.

 

Thanks for the kudos. I should clarify - this team has a chance to make the playoffs simply because of the Tigers' piss-poor start; it has nothing to do with this team being able to win 90 games or even 88 games. It could squeak in at 87 games.

 

If they do make it, I cannot see them advancing. Well, maybe a 1 in 10 chance. Even so, I give them no chance at a world series and too many opportunities would be missed for making key in-season moves for the future.

[greg775]

Thanks for the kudos. I should clarify - this team has a chance to make the playoffs simply because of the Tigers' piss-poor start; it has nothing to do with this team being able to win 90 games or even 88 games. It could squeak in at 87 games.

 

If they do make it, I cannot see them advancing. Well, maybe a 1 in 10 chance. Even so, I give them no chance at a world series and too many opportunities would be missed for making key in-season moves for the future.

 

If you ever get time, I'd love to read your opinion of how the Sox can totally rebuild while being able to generate enough interest to not have to move or be contracted after five years, although your last paragraph did give your plan somewhat.

Edited May 8, 2012 by greg775

[TitoMB345]

If you ever get time, I'd love to read your opinion of how the Sox can totally rebuild while being able to generate enough interest to not have to move or be contracted after five years, although your last paragraph did give your plan somewhat.

[southsider2k5]

I've been mostly quiet until now, because I've favored a wait and see attitude. When they were 10-6, I didn't quite believe they were that good or lucky. Similarly, during this 3-11 stretch, I certainly don't believe they're this bad or unlucky. At this point, I don't think they can compete as-is, at least not particularly effectively, beyond a lucky win of the division and a very early exit in the playoffs. Maybe that was good enough for me in 2000, but I'm certainly not interested in that now.

 

This is an 79-90 win team, just like the last umpteen teams have been, outside of 2007 and 2005. Williams believes that putting yourself in a position to win 80 games and then getting some breaks is good enough. I guess so, if you are getting some off the chart WARs.

 

It struck me last night how fundamentally unsound Williams' "retool" strategy has been, at the core. It has relied on static parts producing at predicted results, paired with high-variance acquisitions to produce at or near the top of their game. It's a brutally flawed strategy, because it undermines some of the fundamentals of player development. In layman's terms, a lot of dudes in baseball just don't particularly pan out, which is why your Gordon Beckhams, your Brent Morels, your Dayan Viciedos are paired with a s***load of other prospects and brought along in tandem. This is why you bottom out at 95-100 wins for a couple of seasons. You trade talent away, hoard draft picks. and 3 years down the line you know who the the 2-3 diamonds are out of the 20 pieces of coal you throw in your pan. They are still cheap, so you can go out and spend money to get the FA you need to pair with your developed talent. You break the bank for two seasons and put together your attack run. You have a 2 year window, then you break it all down again. Why is this so hard for Kenny to realize?

 

2006-2012 was a series of moves designed to work IF everything fell into place. It's a bulls*** strategy, because it was based on the results of a lucky season. If Williams were a poker player, he'd play A2 suited because THAT was the hand that won him the $2000 tournament, not because it was a sound play to begin with, all things considered. Do I think it was a brilliant season? Yes. Do I commend Williams for his strategy? To a point, yes. We also got no less than 8 career years in 2005, and the playoffs of a lifetime - that still could have brutally swung the other way in the ALCS. Luckily, it didn't. Unluckily, Williams believed his own hype - that he could get career years out of "his guys" like getting water from a well. Ladies and Gents, I give you exhibit A - Scott Linebrink.

 

We need to evaluate Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham and either cast them off as dead weight or give them the tools they need to succeed. We need to understand who Dayan Viciedo and Alejandro De Aza are, and give them the tools they need to succeed or continue to succeed at the major league level. We need to stop f***ing with Chris Sale. We need to fix John Danks. We need to trade everyone who resembles a closer and probably Jake Peavy. Most importantly, we need to stop looking at wins and losses this season, because it is the cancer that prevents us from any sustained long term success. It's one thing to act like the Yankees and go "all in" every year, it's another to half-ass your way to being "competitive" with a lackluster bottom half of the lineup.

 

How many times has this been done successfully in a 3 year time period? I can't recall ever. Even the Rays was spread out over at least 6 seasons before finally catching fire in 2008.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Just wait for the Cubans to get hot guys...Wheres Cubano to bring these guys some luck!?!?

[Jordan4life_2007]

How many times has this been done successfully in a 3 year time period? I can't recall ever. Even the Rays was spread out over at least 6 seasons before finally catching fire in 2008.

 

Jon Daniels did it in 4 years.

[southsider2k5]

Jon Daniels did it in 4 years.

 

Not a complete tear down. Not even close.

[Jordan4life_2007]

Not a complete tear down. Not even close.

 

He traded Soriano and Teixeira in a span of like 18 months. This is when they were both superstars. That, to me, is pretty much saying, "look, we're not going to win with what we have. Let's go in another direction."

[Greg Hibbard]

How many times has this been done successfully in a 3 year time period? I can't recall ever. Even the Rays was spread out over at least 6 seasons before finally catching fire in 2008.

 

Well yeah, I was exaggerating somewhat. Now that I'm thinking about it, 4-5 years makes the most sense.

[southsider2k5]

He traded Soriano and Teixeira in a span of like 18 months. This is when they were both superstars. That, to me, is pretty much saying, "look, we're not going to win with what we have. Let's go in another direction."

 

He also kept and extended the face of the franchise in Michael Young. He also kept Hank Blalock though those times, and signed some other FA contracts, such as Kevin Millwood.

[Greg Hibbard]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that you jettison absolutely everyone, though. That seems unrealistic and a bit unreasonable.

[southsider2k5]

I don't think anyone is suggesting that you jettison absolutely everyone, though. That seems unrealistic and a bit unreasonable.

 

That has been the suggestion for many posters, on many, many occasions. Trade Konerko, don't resign Danks, etc.

[Jordan4life_2007]

He also kept and extended the face of the franchise in Michael Young. He also kept Hank Blalock though those times, and signed some other FA contracts, such as Kevin Millwood.

 

The Sox did the same with Konerko. Unlike the Rangers, they don't have anything to supplement that.

[Greg Hibbard]

That has been the suggestion for many posters, on many, many occasions. Trade Konerko, don't resign Danks, etc.

 

I suppose my point is that *I* wasn't suggesting a complete overhaul like that in my response.

[Dick Allen]

He also kept and extended the face of the franchise in Michael Young. He also kept Hank Blalock though those times, and signed some other FA contracts, such as Kevin Millwood.

Yeah. The Rangers bottomed out at 75 wins. The year after they traded Texiera they won 79. Nowhere near a total rebuild and the Sox have no one who can get them the return Texiera brought Texas. 5 years at a minimum, if most everything goes right. It probably would be closer to 10.

[Dick Allen]

The Sox did the same with Konerko. Unlike the Rangers, they don't have anything to supplement that.

So you're saying it really wasn't a total rebuild.