It must be said - Hawk Harrelson has to go

[Iwritecode]

Doubtful at best. Playing the game doesn't equal knowing the game better, it's such a pointless card to play. What is it, 2-3 GMs right now actually played the game at the MLB level?

 

Since KW moved up I believe it's just one.

 

It's the guy in Oakland that Hawk thinks wrote Moneyball.

[Marty34]

Right, and MVP-level players aren't really where advanced stats show the most value. It's the margins and the atypical players that would have otherwise gone unnoticed.

 

Example?

[IlliniKrush]

The situation in which Rios ran should have been ample proof Ventura didn't send him. I pointed that out and the fact the runner on first, who isn't being looked at at all or held on, didn't move. You said it was stupid.

 

If you don't know how WAR is calculated, how can you conclude it is an accurate measure?

Ventura has made weird moves before, so situation didn't matter. I could turn that around. The situation in which Rios ran should be ample proof Rios didn't go on his own. Wouldn't Rios understand the situation? Or is his TWTW not high enough?

 

Konerko was on first, of course he wouldn't move as he'd be thrown out by about 40 feet. Doesn't do anything.

 

Because someone can look at what it tells the WAR is of a particular player, compare it to other stats for that player and other players, and come to their own conclusion that it's pretty accurate at valuing players. If WAR wasn't an accurate measure of anything, it wouldn't be so prevalent and would be dismissed anyway.

[caulfield12]

The real battle right now is over the various defensive metrics and their weaknesses.

[StrangeSox]

Example?

I think someone wrote a book and made a movie about it.

[iamshack]

Example?

Keppinger is a pretty decent example.

[Marty34]

I think someone wrote a book and made a movie about it.

 

I don't know. Hawk is right about the A's of that era, it was more about Zito, Mulder, and Hudson than "moneyball"-type position players.

[StrangeSox]

I don't know. Hawk is right about the A's of that era, it was more about Zito, Mulder, and Hudson than "moneyball"-type position players.

Is baseball still played the same way as it was in the 1970's, or have advanced analytic methods changed how players are valued and viewed even by people who never bother getting personally familiar esoteric metrics?

[Dick Allen]

Ventura has made weird moves before, so situation didn't matter. I could turn that around. The situation in which Rios ran should be ample proof Rios didn't go on his own. Wouldn't Rios understand the situation? Or is his TWTW not high enough?

 

Konerko was on first, of course he wouldn't move as he'd be thrown out by about 40 feet. Doesn't do anything.

 

Because someone can look at what it tells the WAR is of a particular player, compare it to other stats for that player and other players, and come to their own conclusion that it's pretty accurate at valuing players. If WAR wasn't an accurate measure of anything, it wouldn't be so prevalent and would be dismissed anyway.

I don't think Ventura has ever had someone try to steal 3rd with Dunn at bat. Alex isn't known for his baseball acumen. If Rios was going, Konerko, as slow as he is, could have made second without a throw. It's tough to admit you saying something was stupid was wrong, but you were way off.

 

If you don't know how WAR is calculated or any one of the other sabermetric numbers, I don't think you should consider yourself some knowledgable guy because you throw it around. In fact WAR is calculated in a couple different ways. BR and fangraphs have totally different numbers, and most say fangraphs is better, but a lot of the people who say it's better can't answer why. The poster who doesn't know how GDP is calculated but still trusts it, probably wouldn't go around saying he is an amateur economist.

[Eminor3rd]

Players don't create advanced stats or traditional stats. Player just f***ing play and we use advanced stats to understand their performance better.

[Marty34]

Keppinger is a pretty decent example.

 

Keppinger is a good example, but the big reason he got playing time is the Rays couldn't afford anyone better. Moneyball's distinct advantage is you can go through guys until you find the right one because they aren't making any money. Dunn would not be playing right now if he were making the minimum.

[iamshack]

Players don't create advanced stats or traditional stats. Player just f***ing play and we use advanced stats to understand their performance better.

Yeah, but coaches and managers use advanced stats to develop players differently and to employ strategy differently...look at Oakland and Boston for instance, I have heard that organizationally, they started pounding it in to the heads of their minor leaguers to look at more pitches. That absolutely changes how players play.

[iamshack]

Keppinger is a good example, but the big reason he got playing time is the Rays couldn't afford anyone better. Moneyball's distinct advantage is you can go through guys until you find the right one because they aren't making any money. Dunn would not be playing right now if he were making the minimum.

Keppinger was a pretty decent player in Cinci, as well as in Houston and SF....historically, a guy like him might have been considered strictly a bench player because of his low power output...however, because some of the advanced stats have pointed out the utility in a guy that gets on base at a .360 or higher clip, and the ability to play multiple positions, he was given some opportunities he may not have otherwise received.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

 

That looks like Andre from The League

[Dick Allen]

Besides Jeremy Brown, does Billy Beane draft players based on sabermetrics? To me, that would be crazy.

[StrangeSox]

The poster who doesn't know how GDP is calculated but still trusts it, probably wouldn't go around saying he is an amateur economist.

clearly you've never been to the 'buster

[Eminor3rd]

Yeah, but coaches and managers use advanced stats to develop players differently and to employ strategy differently...look at Oakland and Boston for instance, I have heard that organizationally, they started pounding it in to the heads of their minor leaguers to look at more pitches. That absolutely changes how players play.

 

Yeah, that's an instance where the organization discovered that they valued OBP. They almost certainly arrived at that conclusion through the use of sabermetrics, but that isn't any different than the Twins or Phillies ramming bunting and aggressive baserunning into the head of their minor leaguers. In both cases, the team could be right or wrong and a player could thrive or fail, but organizational development philosophy was not something borne from sabermetrics. If Hawk is afraid of players becoming robots, maybe the true culprit is not letting their personal styles thrive. You can point to guys like Daric Barton as casualties of passivity as an approach, but you can point to guys like David Ortiz as casualties of the "Twins Way" too.

 

Just so you know (since we probably agree with each other on most of this already), I was making my point in response to Hawk's "robot ballplayer" argument and Hawk's "sabermetrics get people fired" argument.

[ptatc]

Ventura has made weird moves before, so situation didn't matter. I could turn that around. The situation in which Rios ran should be ample proof Rios didn't go on his own. Wouldn't Rios understand the situation? Or is his TWTW not high enough?

 

Konerko was on first, of course he wouldn't move as he'd be thrown out by about 40 feet. Doesn't do anything.

 

Because someone can look at what it tells the WAR is of a particular player, compare it to other stats for that player and other players, and come to their own conclusion that it's pretty accurate at valuing players. If WAR wasn't an accurate measure of anything, it wouldn't be so prevalent and would be dismissed anyway.

I disagree. It's the only thing someone has come up with to attempt to compare players in all facets of the game. different groups try to calculate it differently. Just because it's the only thing out there doesn't mean it's accurate.

 

If that was true the only stats we would discuss would be batting average rbi's and eras because that's all we old people had in the dark ages fo the 70's and 80's when we watched night games by candlelight.

[iamshack]

Yeah, that's an instance where the organization discovered that they valued OBP. They almost certainly arrived at that conclusion through the use of sabermetrics, but that isn't any different than the Twins or Phillies ramming bunting and aggressive baserunning into the head of their minor leaguers. In both cases, the team could be right or wrong and a player could thrive or fail, but organizational development philosophy was not something borne from sabermetrics. If Hawk is afraid of players becoming robots, maybe the true culprit is not letting their personal styles thrive. You can point to guys like Daric Barton as casualties of passivity as an approach, but you can point to guys like David Ortiz as casualties of the "Twins Way" too.

 

Just so you know (since we probably agree with each other on most of this already), I was making my point in response to Hawk's "robot ballplayer" argument and Hawk's "sabermetrics get people fired" argument.

All good points.

[chw42]

Players don't create advanced stats or traditional stats. Player just f***ing play and we use advanced stats to understand their performance better.

 

Or in certain cases, some players use advanced stats to evaluate their performance and find out what they can do better. Examples: Zack Greinke and Glen Perkins.

 

Advanced pitching stats like FIP can help a lot of pitchers keep their confidence and not get down on themselves too much. The idea that a stat can show you're doing something right when things aren't going well and has proven that eventually, things will probably get better can be a nice confidence boost to a pitcher with confidence issues (Greinke for instance).

Edited April 26, 2013 by chw42

[iamshack]

Or in certain cases, some players use advanced stats to evaluate their performance and find out what they can do better. Examples: Zack Greinke and Glen Perkins.

 

Advanced pitching stats like FIP can help a lot of pitchers keep their confidence and not get down on themselves too much. The idea that a stat can show you're doing something right when things aren't going well and has proven that eventually, things will probably get better can be a nice confidence boost to a pitcher with confidence issues (Greinke for instance).

Another great point.

[chw42]

Yeah, but coaches and managers use advanced stats to develop players differently and to employ strategy differently...look at Oakland and Boston for instance, I have heard that organizationally, they started pounding it in to the heads of their minor leaguers to look at more pitches. That absolutely changes how players play.

 

I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to get players to be more patient. Of course, there should be a restriction as to how much it's done. You don't want to end up with a bunch of Adam Dunn's with no power on your team. But when you look at guys like Alexei Ramirez or Dayan Viciedo, they need to learn how to be more patient and they need that to be a constant idea in their head early in their minor league careers. In fact, I'd say there are a lot more impatient players in baseball today than patient ones, which is why those who can get on base are so sought after.

Edited April 26, 2013 by chw42

[iamshack]

I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to get players to be more patient. Of course, there should be a restriction as to how much it's done. You don't want to end up with a bunch of Adam Dunn's with no power on your team. But when you look at guys like Alexei Ramirez or Dayan Viciedo, they need to learn how to be more patient and they need that to be a constant idea in their head early in their minor league careers. In fact, I'd say there are a lot more impatient players in baseball today than patient ones, which is why those who can get on base are so sought after.

Agreed, but this is where the scouting and the attention to a particular player's psyche comes in...some guys are just naturally aggressive and thrive at hitting that way...you have to know how much you can push a guy like that to look at more pitches and when to say this just isn't helping this type of hitter.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't think there's anything wrong with trying to get players to be more patient. Of course, there should be a restriction as to how much it's done. You don't want to end up with a bunch of Adam Dunn's with no power on your team. But when you look at guys like Alexei Ramirez or Dayan Viciedo, they need to learn how to be more patient and they need that to be a constant idea in their head early in their minor league careers. In fact, I'd say there are a lot more impatient players in baseball today than patient ones, which is why those who can get on base are so sought after.

 

Yeah, I think most of the arguments on TV miss the main benefit of patience/plate discipline. The pundits tend to argue the value (or lack of value) of a walk, and/or the value of OBP. But the real reason patience is important is because you are better of only swinging at good pitches. If you swing at bad pitches, two things happen: (1) you tend to get out, either via K or weak contact, and (2) pitchers never throw you good pitches, because they don't need to do so. If you are patient and willing to take a walk, you force the pitcher to choose between throwing you good pitches to hit or sending to to first base (which may not be ideal for a big hitter, but it is certainly better than making an out). So through patience, a hitter is really establishing a zone for himself. A hitter is forcing a pitcher to give him something to hit.

 

To me, the perfect case study for this is Paul Konerko. He has unquestionably lost bat speed, but has avoided steep decline by becoming a better, more disciplined hitter. He has to cheat on a fastball, but that's fine because he forces a pitcher to give him one. If you don't, he takes his base, or, if cornered, pokes one to right field.

 

I don't want Adam Dunn to GET walks, necessarily, I want him to ACCEPT walks so that he spends more time mashing fastballs for dingers -- or if the pitcher decides to pitch around him -- standing on first for Paulie.

 

When Harold Reynolds and Tom Verducci says good hitters should expand the zone to put the ball in play, I'm just baffled. Yeah, sure, we want our best hitters to swing at bad pitches. Let's help the pitcher out. I don't know why it doesn't make intuitive sense to prefer your hitter being on first to him being out.

Edited April 26, 2013 by Eminor3rd

[chw42]

Agreed, but this is where the scouting and the attention to a particular player's psyche comes in...some guys are just naturally aggressive and thrive at hitting that way...you have to know how much you can push a guy like that to look at more pitches and when to say this just isn't helping this type of hitter.

 

Definitely. You can't have all sabermetrics and no scouting. There's no doubt that there is a mental side of the game in baseball. But some think the mental side is too important and some think the mental side doesn't even exist and that's where most of the problems lie in the sabermetrics vs. old-school debate.