What if we'd kept Gio Gonzalez?

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I wasn't upset with them dealing Hudson at the time because, salary aside, it looked like a fairly even trade stat-wise.

 

I'm upset that Rizzo bamboozled KW into being forced to keep Jackson instead of completing the 3 way to get Dunn.

 

THEN Rizzo gets the Sox #1 on top of it the following season, with the Sox signing Dunn as a type A, AND he signs Jackson as a free agent for free.

 

Yep.

 

My biggest, and only gripe with that trade (once Rizzo decided to screw over Kenny) was that Holmberg was involved. That was the dagger for me.

[T R U]

And yet you are flat out dismissing all of the prospects we traded for, while pining for the prospects we traded away.

 

What prospects?

 

We have a bunch of crap that other teams gave up on. Im not pining over anyone, im just saying weve have traded away legit prospects and have been getting the short end of stick for YEARS.

 

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

What prospects?

 

We have a bunch of crap that other teams gave up on. Im not pining over anyone, im just saying weve have traded away legit prospects and have been getting the short end of stick for YEARS.

 

Almost all the prospects we have traded away, have been s***.

 

Let's count the prospects we have given away that have actually been GOOD major leaguers.

 

Hudson, Gio, Chris Young........ and that's about it.

 

Ryan Sweeney has been alright, but he isn't anyone special. Brandon Allen had a cup of coffee, De Los Santos had a little stint in the majors. Clayton Richards is still in the majors, but garbage.

 

So of the 20-25 guys Kenny has traded away, 3 of them have been good major leaguers, yes?

[knightni]

Michael Morse

Brandon McCarthy

Sergio Santos

Nick Masset

 

 

Honestly, he hasn't traded a bunch of guys. Usually, he signs them as free agents or foreign free agents, or waivers.

[T R U]

Almost all the prospects we have traded away, have been s***.

 

Let's count the prospects we have given away that have actually been GOOD major leaguers.

 

Hudson, Gio, Chris Young........ and that's about it.

 

Ryan Sweeney has been alright, but he isn't anyone special. Brandon Allen had a cup of coffee, De Los Santos had a little stint in the majors. Clayton Richards is still in the majors, but garbage.

 

So of the 20-25 guys Kenny has traded away, 3 of them have been good major leaguers, yes?

 

Are you trying to say that out of 20-25 prospects 3-5 of them being good MLB players is not considered good?

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Are you trying to say that out of 20-25 prospects 3-5 of them being good MLB players is not considered good?

 

And yet, how many guys has he brought in during that stretch?

[caulfield12]

Im going to have to say Hudson, Holmberg, and Edwin Jackson for Zach Stewart pretty much is the worst cumulative deal KW has ever done.

 

 

And Jaye, and Webb.

 

And Teahen's salary was available to pay Floyd/Crain/Thornton instead of having to trade one of them.

[jenksycat]

Michael Morse

Brandon McCarthy

Sergio Santos

Nick Masset

 

 

Honestly, he hasn't traded a bunch of guys. Usually, he signs them as free agents or foreign free agents, or waivers.

 

Can't count McCarthy

Santos wasn't a "prospect" anymore

Masset is ehh

[jenksycat]

Are you trying to say that out of 20-25 prospects 3-5 of them being good MLB players is not considered good?

 

I believe he is saying that you're making it seem like KW has traded away a crop of CY Young MVP's, when really only a couple of them have turned into anything time-machine worthy.

[JPN366]

I could tell back in 2007 when I saw him pitch for the Barons that Gonzalez was a stud in the making. In addition to the fact that he was one of the nicest people you'll ever meet.

[knightni]

Can't count McCarthy

Santos wasn't a "prospect" anymore

Masset is ehh

Does Miguel Olivo count?

 

 

[witesoxfan]

I read the topic. Didn't care about anything else anybody else has said, so if what I say is aforementioned, then many kudos.

 

-

 

It depends upon which time you were talking about.

 

Had the Sox not traded for Jim Thome, they'd have been left with an 02-04ish offense, hoping and praying that Frank Thomas could stay healthy. They'd still be destroyed by great right handed pitching, and as a result probably would have only won 87 games instead of 90. That's IF they had kept Thomas.

 

Had they still let Thomas walk, the best case scenario I can see is that they would have ended up with Nomar Garciaparra. They still lose 3 wins.

 

That's at the very best.

 

Now, if you're an old school type who believes that protection in the lineup helps generate production from other players, than perhaps Jermaine Dye doesn't hit 44 home runs, perhaps Paul Konerko doesn't put up the exact same numbers as MVP Justin Morneau, and perhaps other pieces from the lineup fall as well. Perhaps the Sox lose 10 wins, are ridiculously far out of it at the break, and deal Freddy Garcia for 2 other prospects. And then never get Gio back, and after another very bad year in 2008, the Sox fire both Williams and Guillen and hire Dan Evans and Gene Lamont to run the team.

 

I think we all know how that one goes.

 

 

Now, had they not traded him the second time, which is the one I think you are getting at, having never read a single word of your post, then the Sox don't end up with Nick Swisher. Now, depending upon how strictly and strongly you believe in the statistic WAR, and whose definition you believe most in (baseballreference or fangraphs), the Sox are either better off without Swisher (-0.5 bWAR) or Nick Swisher was worth more than 1 win for the 2008 Chicago White Sox (1.3 fWAR). I give much more credence towards fWAR but I'm a homer, so do as you please.

 

But since, in this revisionist's history, we are using that, and we are using it to mean Nick Swisher was literally worth 1+ more wins than the average Joe they could have put in place, then what we would have seen would have been DeWayne Wise putting up 2 WAR in August alone and -3 WAR in the months outside of that, given general estimation. On top of that, even had the Sox found a perfect replacement level player to play instead of Swisher, who would have put up exactly a 0 fWAR, the Sox would have given up the division lead in the second game in the Metrodome, the final win against Cleveland wouldn't have mattered, they'd have never played the makeup game against Detroit, and the blackout game would have never taken place, thus, no Griffey/Thome/Danks show, and we would have never seen the batting champion-to-be bunt in his last plate appearance of the year attempting to get on base.

 

At that point in time, 2009 would have been far more disappointing, and the Sox almost certainly would have never had the resources to sign Dayan Viciedo during the 2008-09 offseason. They'd be in a full blown rebuilding mode, still with Dan Evans and Gene Lamont in charge. Going into the 4th year of Reinsdorf's always too generous length of stay, the Sox would be coming off their 2nd straight 90+ loss season with an absolute garbage product on the field but hope beyond hope in the minors with a top 10 system in the league.

 

 

 

But atleast they'd still have Gio f***in Gonzalez.

Edited May 31, 2012 by witesoxfan

[Quin]

I read the topic. Didn't care about anything else anybody else has said, so if what I say is aforementioned, then many kudos.

 

-

 

It depends upon which time you were talking about.

 

Had the Sox not traded for Jim Thome, they'd have been left with an 02-04ish offense, hoping and praying that Frank Thomas could stay healthy. They'd still be destroyed by great right handed pitching, and as a result probably would have only won 87 games instead of 90. That's IF they had kept Thomas.

 

Had they still let Thomas walk, the best case scenario I can see is that they would have ended up with Nomar Garciaparra. They still lose 3 wins.

 

That's at the very best.

 

Now, if you're an old school type who believes that protection in the lineup helps generate production from other players, than perhaps Jermaine Dye doesn't hit 44 home runs, perhaps Paul Konerko doesn't put up the exact same numbers as MVP Justin Morneau, and perhaps other pieces from the lineup fall as well. Perhaps the Sox lose 10 wins, are ridiculously far out of it at the break, and deal Freddy Garcia for 2 other prospects. And then never get Gio back, and after another very bad year in 2008, the Sox fire both Williams and Guillen and hire Dan Evans and Gene Lamont to run the team.

 

I think we all know how that one goes.

 

 

Now, had they not traded him the second time, which is the one I think you are getting at, having never read a single word of your post, then the Sox don't end up with Nick Swisher. Now, depending upon how strictly and strongly you believe in the statistic WAR, and whose definition you believe most in (baseballreference or fangraphs), the Sox are either better off without Swisher (-0.5 bWAR) or Nick Swisher was worth more than 1 win for the 2008 Chicago White Sox (1.3 fWAR). I give much more credence towards fWAR but I'm a homer, so do as you please.

 

But since, in this revisionist's history, we are using that, and we are using it to mean Nick Swisher was literally worth 1+ more wins than the average Joe they could have put in place, then what we would have seen would have been DeWayne Wise putting up 2 WAR in August alone and -3 WAR in the months outside of that, given general estimation. On top of that, even had the Sox found a perfect replacement level player to play instead of Swisher, who would have put up exactly a 0 fWAR, the Sox would have given up the division lead in the second game in the Metrodome, the final win against Cleveland wouldn't have mattered, they'd have never played the makeup game against Detroit, and the blackout game would have never taken place, thus, no Griffey/Thome/Danks show, and we would have never seen the batting champion-to-be bunt in his last plate appearance of the year attempting to get on base.

 

At that point in time, 2009 would have been far more disappointing, and the Sox almost certainly would have never had the resources to sign Dayan Viciedo during the 2008-09 offseason. They'd be in a full blown rebuilding mode, still with Dan Evans and Gene Lamont in charge. Going into the 4th year of Reinsdorf's always too generous length of stay, the Sox would be coming off their 2nd straight 90+ loss season with an absolute garbage product on the field but hope beyond hope in the minors with a top 10 system in the league.

 

 

 

But atleast they'd still have Gio f***in Gonzalez.

 

 

Also, we'd be complaining about how we didn't trade him for prospects at his peak value.

[Quin]

I read the topic. Didn't care about anything else anybody else has said, so if what I say is aforementioned, then many kudos.

 

-

 

It depends upon which time you were talking about.

 

Had the Sox not traded for Jim Thome, they'd have been left with an 02-04ish offense, hoping and praying that Frank Thomas could stay healthy. They'd still be destroyed by great right handed pitching, and as a result probably would have only won 87 games instead of 90. That's IF they had kept Thomas.

 

Had they still let Thomas walk, the best case scenario I can see is that they would have ended up with Nomar Garciaparra. They still lose 3 wins.

 

That's at the very best.

 

Now, if you're an old school type who believes that protection in the lineup helps generate production from other players, than perhaps Jermaine Dye doesn't hit 44 home runs, perhaps Paul Konerko doesn't put up the exact same numbers as MVP Justin Morneau, and perhaps other pieces from the lineup fall as well. Perhaps the Sox lose 10 wins, are ridiculously far out of it at the break, and deal Freddy Garcia for 2 other prospects. And then never get Gio back, and after another very bad year in 2008, the Sox fire both Williams and Guillen and hire Dan Evans and Gene Lamont to run the team.

 

I think we all know how that one goes.

 

 

Now, had they not traded him the second time, which is the one I think you are getting at, having never read a single word of your post, then the Sox don't end up with Nick Swisher. Now, depending upon how strictly and strongly you believe in the statistic WAR, and whose definition you believe most in (baseballreference or fangraphs), the Sox are either better off without Swisher (-0.5 bWAR) or Nick Swisher was worth more than 1 win for the 2008 Chicago White Sox (1.3 fWAR). I give much more credence towards fWAR but I'm a homer, so do as you please.

 

But since, in this revisionist's history, we are using that, and we are using it to mean Nick Swisher was literally worth 1+ more wins than the average Joe they could have put in place, then what we would have seen would have been DeWayne Wise putting up 2 WAR in August alone and -3 WAR in the months outside of that, given general estimation. On top of that, even had the Sox found a perfect replacement level player to play instead of Swisher, who would have put up exactly a 0 fWAR, the Sox would have given up the division lead in the second game in the Metrodome, the final win against Cleveland wouldn't have mattered, they'd have never played the makeup game against Detroit, and the blackout game would have never taken place, thus, no Griffey/Thome/Danks show, and we would have never seen the batting champion-to-be bunt in his last plate appearance of the year attempting to get on base.

 

At that point in time, 2009 would have been far more disappointing, and the Sox almost certainly would have never had the resources to sign Dayan Viciedo during the 2008-09 offseason. They'd be in a full blown rebuilding mode, still with Dan Evans and Gene Lamont in charge. Going into the 4th year of Reinsdorf's always too generous length of stay, the Sox would be coming off their 2nd straight 90+ loss season with an absolute garbage product on the field but hope beyond hope in the minors with a top 10 system in the league.

 

 

 

But atleast they'd still have Gio f***in Gonzalez.

 

 

Also, we'd be complaining about how we didn't trade him for prospects at his peak value.

[LittleHurt05]

wite = baseball genius

[cabiness42]

Trading Gio for Swisher didn't work out. Somebody who is as aggressive as Kenny is going to miss sometimes. The same attitude that made that trade also netted Gavin Floyd and John Danks for Freddy Garcia and Brandon McCarthy. Oh, and Matt Thornton for Joe Borchard.

 

So I'll live with the few bad ones and not spend my time asking 'What if . . .'

[hogan873]

The team is playing well. The Dunn signing is looking like it's paying off, finally. Rios is performing. Peavy is the Peavy we thought he could be. Sale is an upgrade over Buehrle (minus the potential loss of innings). Viciedo is awesome. The Orlando Hudson pick-up seems to be a no brainer. Okay, so what can we complain about? I know, let's talk AGAIN about "what if" the Sox sill had Gio Gonzalez.

 

It doesn't matter. You can't play what if about something like this because so much has happened since then. The team would not look like it does now had the Sox not traded him (the first or second time). It's not as simple as the team would have Gonzalez instead of Danks or Floyd.

 

Let's just enjoy this team as it is. It's a team that costs a lot less than 2011 and is playing a lot better.

[Quin]

Edit: Using this for the gamethread, accidentally bump this thread.

Edited April 9, 2013 by Quinarvy

[GreatScott82]

This was interesting to read again. Looking back at the history of KW trades will always be an intriguing thing. The one thing I hope Hahn learned from some of those poor trades (Hudson for Jackson, Gio for Swisher) is to put a premium on talented young arms. They did it right by locking up Sale long term. I hope another young pitcher comes out of nowhere this year.... I still believe Quintana has the potential to be really good!

Edited April 9, 2013 by GreatScott82

[witesoxfan]

I'm awesome sometimes

[iamshack]

This was interesting to read again. Looking back at the history of KW trades will always be an intriguing thing. The one thing I hope Hahn learned from some of those poor trades (Hudson for Jackson, Gio for Swisher) is to put a premium on talented young arms. They did it right by locking up Sale long term. I hope another young pitcher comes out of nowhere this year.... I still believe Quintana has the potential to be really good!

I'm still not sure you can look at things this way...as Wite was making pretty clear...just take the case of another pitcher in the Swisher deal, Fautino De Los Santos...I'm not sure many people were more upset about the trade of Gios than DLS...and look how he turned out for the A's...

 

This is pretty much just a numbers game...if you trade away a certain quantity of young arms, some small percentage is going to come back and bite you in the ass...that is all there is to it....however, the overwhelming majority will not...

[witesoxfan]

I'm still not sure you can look at things this way...as Wite was making pretty clear...just take the case of another pitcher in the Swisher deal, Fautino De Los Santos...I'm not sure many people were more upset about the trade of Gios than DLS...and look how he turned out for the A's...

 

This is pretty much just a numbers game...if you trade away a certain quantity of young arms, some small percentage is going to come back and bite you in the ass...that is all there is to it....however, the overwhelming majority will not...

 

People were up in arms about losing Jeremy Reed and Miguel Olivo, but nobody cared about losing Michael Morse, especially after he got a second PED violation. That one obviously worked out exactly as we thought it would.

[nickofypres]

For me, it's hard to say because I believe in the butterfly effect in baseball.

 

Just because he figured it out in Oakland, doesn't mean he would have figured it out in Chicago. Given the record pitchers have here, odds say he does, but you never really know.

[GreatScott82]

For me, it's hard to say because I believe in the butterfly effect in baseball.

 

Just because he figured it out in Oakland, doesn't mean he would have figured it out in Chicago. Given the record pitchers have here, odds say he does, but you never really know.

 

This is true... but the guy has wicked talent. Billy Beane knew what he was doing!

 

Another interesting thing to think about was the Torii Hunter situation of 2008. The White Sox were coming off a miserable 2007 campaign and were in the desperate need for an upgrade in the OF. The White Sox pretty much had Hunter signed until the Angels swooped in last minute to offer him a ridiculous deal the he couldn't refuse. If the White Sox sign Hunter, they do not trade for Swisher and essentially keep Gio.

 

In regards to the Jackson deal, the White Sox pretty much traded a young talented power pitcher in Hudson for an older more expensive power pitcher in the hope of then swapping Jackson to Washington for Adam Dunn. After Washington declined the offer, KW was left in the dust feeling bad.

 

Since we pretty much traded both Swisher and Jackson for next to nothing, it makes me wonder about how often teams lose top prospects who eventually pan out on other teams?

Edited April 9, 2013 by GreatScott82

[flavum]

For me, it's hard to say because I believe in the butterfly effect in baseball.

 

Just because he figured it out in Oakland, doesn't mean he would have figured it out in Chicago. Given the record pitchers have here, odds say he does, but you never really know.

 

Good chance we don't have Sale now either.