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1/3 of the way through the season


southsider2k5

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:05 PM)
Get a clue. You actually said someone needs to read a book about fantasy baseball to understand how the game is played. Talk about someone in la la land

listen son, i'm already ahead in my fantasy league by 20 games. 20. Why? Because I predicted Andre Ethier's explosion even though he hit 12 homers and had 40-some rbi last year. I predicted Dexter Fowler's explosion even though he's been awful till this year. I predicted Lucas Duda's ... not explosion like the others, but extremely serviceable start. What's the common denominator between ALL 3? O. B. P.

 

end of story.

 

edit: Throw Kipnis in there as well. Number one 2B this year. Called that too.

 

Edited by Reddy
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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:10 PM)
listen son, i'm already ahead in my fantasy league by 20 games. 20. Why? Because I predicted Andre Ethier's explosion even though he hit 12 homers and had 40-some rbi last year. I predicted Dexter Fowler's explosion even though he's been awful till this year. I predicted Lucas Duda's ... not explosion like the others, but extremely serviceable start. What's the common denominator between ALL 3? O. B. P.

 

end of story.

Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. Ethier, Fowler and Duda put you 20 games ahead 1/3 of the way through the season. If you're going to brag, make it at least somewhat believable. Why don't you make some predictions for the Sox players from here on out. Lets see how smart you really are.

Edited by Dick Allen
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:13 PM)
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight. Ethier, Fowler and Duda put you 20 games ahead 1/3 of the way through the season.

... when you put those guys on top of Miggy/Hanley/Stanton, with a little Buster Posey and Mike Trout for good measure, yes. If I'd gone with guys you like (high batting average guys) I could easily have 3 black holes where Ethier, Fowler and Duda are like Ichiro, Pence, or Take-Your-Pick-of-Uptons

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:11 PM)
seriously? are you kidding? i've posted like 3 things. where were you telling 2k and shack to calm down? no personal attacks were levied, and no post deletions were warranted.

None of the posts I removed had anything to do with the debate and were just you two personally snipping at each other. You have a problem with that, send me a message, but that type of crap (what I deleted) doesn't need to be read by the forum.

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QUOTE (Cali @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:54 PM)
What are Reed's splits between Save Situations and Non-Save situations? Are they drastic or similar?

 

Sv Sit: 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 3 K:BB

 

NonSv: 12 1/3 IP, 13 H, 6 BB, 15 K, 7.30 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 2.5 K:BB

 

 

So yeah, I'd say pretty drastic, although obviously small sample sizes.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:10 PM)
listen son, i'm already ahead in my fantasy league by 20 games. 20. Why? Because I predicted Andre Ethier's explosion even though he hit 12 homers and had 40-some rbi last year. I predicted Dexter Fowler's explosion even though he's been awful till this year. I predicted Lucas Duda's ... not explosion like the others, but extremely serviceable start. What's the common denominator between ALL 3? O. B. P.

 

end of story.

 

edit: Throw Kipnis in there as well. Number one 2B this year. Called that too.

Really...thats great. Your fantasy team is doing well. Major league baseball isn't fantasy baseball. Andre Ethier's explosion? Really, dude is a stud and has been. Guy was on pace for the triple crown prior to going down with an injury a year ago. Fowler, sure he might have struggled, but lets not pretend he wasn't one of the top prospects in the game.

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QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 01:16 PM)
Sv Sit: 6 1/3 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 3 K:BB

 

NonSv: 12 1/3 IP, 13 H, 6 BB, 15 K, 7.30 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 2.5 K:BB

 

 

So yeah, I'd say pretty drastic, although obviously small sample sizes.

Plus wasn't there one or game where he gave up like 5 runs, which in an of itself can have a major impact on a reliever given the sample size.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:19 PM)
Plus wasn't there one or game where he gave up like 5 runs, which in an of itself can have a major impact on a reliever given the sample size.

 

I think it was 6 ER in 1/3 of an inning vs. the Royals in a non-save situation.

 

It sent his ERA from 0.00 to like 6.50. He has been working ever since to bring it back down to Earth.

Edited by JoeCoolMan24
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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:16 PM)
... when you put those guys on top of Miggy/Hanley/Stanton, with a little Buster Posey and Mike Trout for good measure, yes. If I'd gone with guys you like (high batting average guys) I could easily have 3 black holes where Ethier, Fowler and Duda are like Ichiro, Pence, or Take-Your-Pick-of-Uptons

 

Pence is rated higher fantasy-wise than Ethier & Fowler. And the Uptons are both better than Duda.

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QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:18 PM)
Really...thats great. Your fantasy team is doing well. Major league baseball isn't fantasy baseball. Andre Ethier's explosion? Really, dude is a stud and has been. Guy was on pace for the triple crown prior to going down with an injury a year ago. Fowler, sure he might have struggled, but lets not pretend he wasn't one of the top prospects in the game.

andre ethier has been solid. he's always jumped out early and faltered after about June, whether due to injury or personal issues with management. my gut was he actually puts together a whole solid season this year as long as he's got his health. drafting him in the mid rounds has been a huge steal. the same can be said for Kipnis and Duda in the late rounds.

 

my point is, i'm good at fantasy baseball because i'm pretty good at predicting value of players - especially ones that have fallen out of favor for whatever reason. and the stats i use are not batting average and strikeouts, because neither of those things MATTER. that's all i'm trying to point out.

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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:11 PM)
That is certainly difficult to articulate...and I do not blame you for not being able to do so.

 

I figured as much. I articulated how I decided grades and why. I even gave statistical analysis of how and why. I don't know why you need to take a piece of out everything and turn it into a personal insult, if you are going to, at least be able to come up with what you are asking me to do.

 

At the end of the day is something to talk about on a an off-day. No need to turn it into a reason to insult multiple people.

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QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:21 PM)
Pence is rated higher fantasy-wise than Ethier & Fowler. And the Uptons are both better than Duda.

i have to clarify that i play in an OBP/OPS league so all 3 slash stats matter, not just AVG. So in my league, that's not the case.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:22 PM)
I figured as much. I articulated how I decided grades and why. I even gave statistical analysis of how and why. I don't know why you need to take a piece of out everything and turn it into a personal insult, if you are going to, at least be able to come up with what you are asking me to do.

 

At the end of the day is something to talk about on a an off-day. No need to turn it into a reason to insult multiple people.

What?

 

Where did I insult anyone?

 

What on earth are you talking about?

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:22 PM)
I figured as much. I articulated how I decided grades and why. I even gave statistical analysis of how and why. I don't know why you need to take a piece of out everything and turn it into a personal insult, if you are going to, at least be able to come up with what you are asking me to do.

 

At the end of the day is something to talk about on a an off-day. No need to turn it into a reason to insult multiple people.

do you understand that you can use statistics incorrectly? you can read them to mean something they don't? if you don't understand the stats that matter, your opinion also doesn't matter.

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:22 PM)
andre ethier has been solid. he's always jumped out early and faltered after about June, whether due to injury or personal issues with management. my gut was he actually puts together a whole solid season this year as long as he's got his health. drafting him in the mid rounds has been a huge steal. the same can be said for Kipnis and Duda in the late rounds.

 

my point is, i'm good at fantasy baseball because i'm pretty good at predicting value of players - especially ones that have fallen out of favor for whatever reason. and the stats i use are not batting average and strikeouts, because neither of those things MATTER. that's all i'm trying to point out.

The point is, you are most likely full of it as you tend to add more players having good years to every post. In an hour, you will have probably have the top 100 guys in baseball on your roster.

 

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:25 PM)
do you understand that you can use statistics incorrectly? you can read them to mean something they don't? if you don't understand the stats that matter, your opinion also doesn't matter.

 

I used the statistics you laid out. Now you are going to argue that they don't matter? Come on man.

 

And yes opinion matters. Baseball is largely based on opinion. If we weren't talking about opinion, no one would post on this board, well pretty much ever. Even worse would be calling someone stupid, which you did at multiple points in this thread, over opinions.

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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:27 PM)
The point is, you are most likely full of it as you tend to add more players having good years to every post. In an hour, you will have probably have the top 100 guys in baseball on your roster.

do you want me to do a screen capture? I will.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:29 PM)
I used the statistics you laid out. Now you are going to argue that they don't matter? Come on man.

 

And yes opinion matters. Baseball is largely based on opinion. If we weren't talking about opinion, no one would post on this board, well pretty much ever. Even worse would be calling someone stupid, which you did at multiple points in this thread, over opinions.

ok i don't remember exactly, but if you DID use OBP and OPS, you mentioned that the OBP is about his career norm and that his OPS is ABOVE his career norm, which leads him to get a C. Only players EXCEEDING career numbers are allowed higher grades than a C. Is this generally correct?

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QUOTE (Reddy @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:33 PM)
ok i don't remember exactly, but if you DID use OBP and OPS, you mentioned that the OBP is about his career norm and that his OPS is ABOVE his career norm, which leads him to get a C. Only players EXCEEDING career numbers are allowed higher grades than a C. Is this generally correct?

 

And as I laid out before, OPS is very close to normal. Couple that with the horrible average and historically bad strike out rate, and I would say that balances out the extra .019 OPS.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:36 PM)
And as I laid out before, OPS is very close to normal. Couple that with the horrible average and historically bad strike out rate, and I would say that balances out the extra .019 OPS.

but dude, the whole point is that average is FACTORED IN to OBP and thus OPS. the low average does NOT balance out anything, as it's already in the equation!

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 03:39 PM)
And 88 strikeouts isn't.

so you're telling me, that solely based on a high strikeout total, a guy goes from an A to a C. Regardless of the Runs Created.... Regardless of the WAR... Regardless of the OPS, the RBIs, the Home Runs, the Runs Scored, the highest walk rate of his career.

 

Regardless of all that. 88 strikeouts is worth grading him a C.

 

If you say yes to all this, then we'll leave it at that and speak no more of it.

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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jun 4, 2012 -> 02:36 PM)
And as I laid out before, OPS is very close to normal. Couple that with the horrible average and historically bad strike out rate, and I would say that balances out the extra .019 OPS.

So you get to remove last season from Dunn's body of work, but keep all of Peavy's seasons in for his body of work...and Peavy's expectations are drastically affected by his injury but Dunn's aren't by his historically bad season last year...

 

That's just inconsistent...

 

I'm not saying I could honestly articulate exact criteria with which to grade, and I am sure some people would disagree with some of my grades...

 

But bottom line...in this era of baseball...you cannot say a guy on pace for 50 home runs and a .375 OBP deserves a C...that just does not make sense on any level.

 

Even if Albert Pujols, who probably has the highest expectations in all of baseball, put up Adam Dunn's current line, I would not give him a C.

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