2012-2013 NBA thread

[DBAHO]

I think best case scenario the Bulls are hoping Asik can develop more offensively, similiar to a career path like Marcin Gortat, who actually flourished when he became a starter (let's see how he does without Steve Nash this season though).

 

I'm wondering if the Rockets are going to sign Asik to that offer-sheet now though, considering they're probably all in for Dwight and will have to take 2 bad contracts back as well in all likelihood to get him.

 

As a Magic fan, I'm hoping that Asik doesn't end up in Houston.

[ZoomSlowik]

8M over the total deal, or approximately 10M over 2 years. That is when the Bulls should be dealing him and that contract is moveable. I'm not saying you will necessarily get a 1st round pick for him, but the financial opportunities alone make it worthwhile. One thing you have to remember is you can't just create payroll, so his contract, in a sense, is a quasi-asset if you utilize it appropriately (along with other assets) to potentially land a star or above average player when otherwise you financially wouldn't be able to do.

 

Now if the plan truly is 2014, well then so be it, but I've yet to see what exactly they will be looking for in that year. Additionally, I still think you can move Asik at the end of the year and thus from a basketball perspective, you get Asik and that is better then not having Asik. Only real loss is Jerry spending potential luxury tax money this year (but that doesn't really prevent the Bulls from making moves, especially if the club plans on moving him a year from now anyway). Yes, it costs money, but unless you think you can't move that deal a year from now (in which case, I think you do have to potentially think hard about not matching), then it really isn't that bad of deal. Expensive yes, but moveable and for the current year better then the alternative.

 

It isn't like the Bulls can take this money and spend it elsewhere. They either match or they let Asik walk and only have the minimum to give to a player to replace him.

 

Here's the problem with that: if you try to trade him after this year, his salary for the trade would only be the current year's salary, which would be $5 million. That means the receiving team would be taking on a s***load of money in the second year. That basically eliminates any team within $10 million of the luxury tax because it'd cost them a ton to take on Asik, or anyone with any desires of free agency the next year. Hence the "poison pill" part. If you do it in the last year, you'd still have to give up actual assets in order to get anyone of real worth.

 

Jerry hasn't shown any indication he is willing to go comfortably into luxury tax territory, which is what he'd have to do with Asik. You'd basically have to cut loose at least two of Boozer, Gibson and Deng with no cap space to bring in major pieces, otherwise he'd be looking at a massive luxury tax bill, especially since the Bulls would be repeat offenders. This isn't a 1:1 tax if you go over, it could easily be pushing 3:1. Meaning it wouldn't be costing them $15 million to keep Asik, it might be pushing $50 million. That's a lot to swallow if I'm JR, and I'd probably try to avoid using my mini-MLE every year to keep adding more.

 

The future costs of keeping Asik are just absolutely massive, all for a backup center. Seriously, he's strictly defense-only and the costs are going to be extremely high.

 

Just let him go, he's just not that good and not worth potentially killing your team if no one wants to take him at $15 million. I sure as hell wouldn't touch that.

Edited July 14, 2012 by ZoomSlowik

[ZoomSlowik]

What are you talking about? He's clearly not a better low post scorer then the average center. My point was that you aren't going to be better off leaving him wide open and fouling him 24/7. If you did do that, he'd actually end up scoring at a better rate then an overall offense. I was purely defecting Badger's so called strategy, nothing more. In no way am I making a case for Asik being efficient offensively, because he's not, but the strategy proposed wouldn't have been a good strategy, imo (the fouling).

 

I do think teams would leave Asik alone by and large and you would see some 4 on 5 and he has things to do to improve under the hoop at making teams pay when they do completely leave him.

 

Your wording on that was extremely strange, it looked like you were trying to argue that because he shoots 52% in the basket area and doesn't shoot anything outside of there that it was somehow good.

 

They already do leave him wide open. They cheat off Asik constantly, especially on the pick and roll. Even when he gets the ball, he brings it down and has to collect himself before going up. He gets so few actual attempts at the basket that he can convert that he's just a huge liability.

[ZoomSlowik]

I think best case scenario the Bulls are hoping Asik can develop more offensively, similiar to a career path like Marcin Gortat, who actually flourished when he became a starter (let's see how he does without Steve Nash this season though).

 

I'm wondering if the Rockets are going to sign Asik to that offer-sheet now though, considering they're probably all in for Dwight and will have to take 2 bad contracts back as well in all likelihood to get him.

 

As a Magic fan, I'm hoping that Asik doesn't end up in Houston.

 

I can't really say I'm all that familar with Gortat pre-Phoenix, but I'd be very surprised if he was as raw offensively as Asik. I can see that he was putting up a very good PER in his limited minutes.

 

That's another issue. Barring a major injury, his minutes aren't likely to double like Gortat's did. Our two starting big men are signed for a while, and Gibson would still probably get first crack.

[Chisoxfn]

Here's the problem with that: if you try to trade him after this year, his salary for the trade would only be the current year's salary, which would be $5 million. That means the receiving team would be taking on a s***load of money in the second year. That basically eliminates any team within $10 million of the luxury tax because it'd cost them a ton to take on Asik, or anyone with any desires of free agency the next year. Hence the "poison pill" part. If you do it in the last year, you'd still have to give up actual assets in order to get anyone of real worth.

 

Jerry hasn't shown any indication he is willing to go comfortably into luxury tax territory, which is what he'd have to do with Asik. You'd basically have to cut loose at least two of Boozer, Gibson and Deng with no cap space to bring in major pieces, otherwise he'd be looking at a massive luxury tax bill, especially since the Bulls would be repeat offenders. This isn't a 1:1 tax if you go over, it could easily be pushing 3:1. Meaning it wouldn't be costing them $15 million to keep Asik, it might be pushing $50 million. That's a lot to swallow if I'm JR, and I'd probably try to avoid using my mini-MLE every year to keep adding more.

 

The future costs of keeping Asik are just absolutely massive, all for a backup center. Seriously, he's strictly defense-only and the costs are going to be extremely high.

 

Just let him go, he's just not that good and not worth potentially killing your team if no one wants to take him at $15 million. I sure as hell wouldn't touch that.

Hence my point that the team who acquires him would be paying an average of $10M per year for the 2 years remaining on the deal. However, that $10M/yr is still moveable, in my opinion.

[DBAHO]

I can't really say I'm all that familar with Gortat pre-Phoenix, but I'd be very surprised if he was as raw offensively as Asik. I can see that he was putting up a very good PER in his limited minutes.

 

That's another issue. Barring a major injury, his minutes aren't likely to double like Gortat's did. Our two starting big men are signed for a while, and Gibson would still probably get first crack.

Yeah I don't think he was certainly as raw offensively as Asik is now, but Asik is obviously a much better defensive player.

 

The one playoff game against Philly where Dwight was suspended for too many tech's, I think that showed a lot of people what Gortat was capable of offensively when he actually got the chance to play some decent minutes.

 

Again, I think if the Bulls are going to re-sign Asik, they'll be doing so to try and trade him down the line. The problem with that strategy, as we've seen with Orlando and Cleveland in the past 5 years, you start keeping or bringing in too many borderline assets with bad contracts, it's really going to cost you down the line, especially with the new salary cap regulations in 13-14.

[ZoomSlowik]

Hence my point that the team who acquires him would be paying an average of $10M per year for the 2 years remaining on the deal. However, that $10M/yr is still moveable, in my opinion.

 

I don't think you're getting the point, the average is irrelevant. It isn't like the NHL where they pay the average, it's $5 mil and then $15 mil. Even if you think he's your starting center, that $15 million the second year is a major issue, especially if you can't dump $10 mil of your own bad contracts in the trade. There are probably 20 teams that wouldn't touch it just for luxury tax implications.

[Steve9347]

Oh yes. Chaos and I'm not involved.

This for me, too.

[Steve9347]

Elton Brand claimed by Mavs. Great fit.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't think you're getting the point, the average is irrelevant. It isn't like the NHL where they pay the average, it's $5 mil and then $15 mil. Even if you think he's your starting center, that $15 million the second year is a major issue, especially if you can't dump $10 mil of your own bad contracts in the trade. There are probably 20 teams that wouldn't touch it just for luxury tax implications.

I fully understand the semantics of the luxury tax and the teams that are going to offer Asik big money would be those that are likely under the cap, which typically takes the luxury tax concerns out of the question. Cleveland was talking about making Asik a big money offer, but ended up holding off. Had he been unrestricted, he probably gets even more. While some teams would be impacted/hindered from taking on Asik for that 1 yr with 15M, there are plenty of teams that wouldn't be.

 

All we heard 2 years ago about Joe Johnson was how awful the deal was and he'd absolutely never ever be able to be traded. Guess what, he got moved. The NBA is full of crazy people and when it comes to legit 7 foot centers who can play d and are still developing (and how much better Asik gets offensively, i honestly don't think he can make very major improvements, but he should be able to improve). He's also got youth on his side as well. He's still an attractive player.

 

We aren't talking about some 32 year old stiff we'll be overpaying.

[ZoomSlowik]

I fully understand the semantics of the luxury tax and the teams that are going to offer Asik big money would be those that are likely under the cap, which typically takes the luxury tax concerns out of the question. Cleveland was talking about making Asik a big money offer, but ended up holding off. Had he been unrestricted, he probably gets even more. While some teams would be impacted/hindered from taking on Asik for that 1 yr with 15M, there are plenty of teams that wouldn't be.

 

All we heard 2 years ago about Joe Johnson was how awful the deal was and he'd absolutely never ever be able to be traded. Guess what, he got moved. The NBA is full of crazy people and when it comes to legit 7 foot centers who can play d and are still developing (and how much better Asik gets offensively, i honestly don't think he can make very major improvements, but he should be able to improve). He's also got youth on his side as well. He's still an attractive player.

 

We aren't talking about some 32 year old stiff we'll be overpaying.

 

No, he's a 26 year old stiff we'll be overpaying. Seriously, 14.7 MPG. He's a backup.

 

Joe Johnson is still a player that has actual basketball skills and can score. Yes, his contract is horrible, but he's still a decidedly above average player.

[Chisoxfn]

No, he's a 26 year old stiff we'll be overpaying. Seriously, 14.7 MPG. He's a backup.

 

Joe Johnson is still a player that has actual basketball skills and can score. Yes, his contract is horrible, but he's still a decidedly above average player.

14.7MPG on the Bulls. Which is a separate argument, but with Noah having ankle injuries, he is the Bulls only backup center. On most teams he gets significantly more minutes then the 14.7. There are more then just a few teams that he probably starts for. He is not a stiff. That is ridiculous. Argue his value to the Bulls, but on the open market, teams will pay him. Look how much Joel Pyrzbilla got in his career.

 

Here's a question, what is the difference between Asik and a guy like Chandler. And I'm not comparing the two, but Chandler isn't all that effective of an offensive player either. Albeit, he will get a lot of outback points and is a better passer (and more efficient at throwing down the dunk). However, Chandler isn't exactly going to create offense. Defensively both are very strong.

[RZZZA]

Chandler is one of the most efficient C's in the game. Asik is one of the least efficient.

 

Asik has to work on catching and dunking, there's no question about that.

[Chisoxfn]

Are the Rockets going to even offer Asik. Reports out there that they put a huge poison pill in the Knicks deal too (15M in year 4).

[Chisoxfn]

Chandler is one of the most efficient C's in the game. Asik is one of the least efficient.

 

Asik has to work on catching and dunking, there's no question about that.

Agree on the efficiency. And I love Tyson and Asik is clearly not in the same league as him. However, whose to say Asik can't improve around the hoop.

 

Javal Mcgee was offered 5yrs 50M. Raw and athletic. Lots to still prove. I actually have zero problem if the Bulls don't match either. I am irritated at how they handled this whole situation with Asik and how they failed to turn him into an asset. However, if they match, I'm fine, assuming they intend and believe they can turn him into an asset and have a bigger plan. If the plan is to keep him for 3 years, well the Bulls are likely going to be in trouble.

[ZoomSlowik]

14.7MPG on the Bulls. Which is a separate argument, but with Noah having ankle injuries, he is the Bulls only backup center. On most teams he gets significantly more minutes then the 14.7. There are more then just a few teams that he probably starts for. He is not a stiff. That is ridiculous. Argue his value to the Bulls, but on the open market, teams will pay him. Look how much Joel Pyrzbilla got in his career.

 

Here's a question, what is the difference between Asik and a guy like Chandler. And I'm not comparing the two, but Chandler isn't all that effective of an offensive player either. Albeit, he will get a lot of outback points and is a better passer (and more efficient at throwing down the dunk). However, Chandler isn't exactly going to create offense. Defensively both are very strong.

 

Chandler can actually catch the ball and dunk with someone within 5 feet of him. He's also consistently shot over 55% from the floor on more attempts, has proven he can handle heavy minutes and his foul rate is considerably lower so he can actually stay on the floor. Not to mention he's played against starters pretty much his whole career instead of playing against second line players. Look at what happened when Asik had to fill in for Noah in the playoffs, he was brutal in 3 games out of 4 when he got minutes.

 

Teams paying him doesn't mean he's good. How many of those contracts to players like DeAndre Jordan and Kendrick Perkins actually work out?

[Chisoxfn]

Chandler can actually catch the ball and dunk with someone within 5 feet of him. He's also consistently shot over 55% from the floor on more attempts, has proven he can handle heavy minutes and his foul rate is considerably lower so he can actually stay on the floor. Not to mention he's played against starters pretty much his whole career instead of playing against second line players. Look at what happened when Asik had to fill in for Noah in the playoffs, he was brutal in 3 games out of 4 when he got minutes.

 

Teams paying him doesn't mean he's good. How many of those contracts to players like DeAndre Jordan and Kendrick Perkins actually work out?

I'm talking about whether you can trade him. I'm not talking about long-term whether it works. If you can trade him a year from now, then you end up getting an asset out of Asik. That is the question. I'm not looking at what he'll be 3 years from now. A year from now can you trade him for a TPE and a pick (or something along those lines)? If you can, you make this deal and keep working with Asik. If you don't think that sort of market exists, then you don't match. THe fact that there are multiple teams that would give him an offer, at least makes it interesting.

 

And then there are always those teams that need another contract to broker transactions. The NBA cap rules are incredibly strange in how very odd things can actually be assets. Heck, you could make an argument that the 15M might be attractive to a team trading a star player. Why? Because the team trading the star might be in need of a full rebuild where one of the things it wants is to get away from a luxuryy tax spot (and getting rid of a LT deal for an expiring deal like Asik) would prevent LT luxury tax issues all while also getting equal salary back in a major salary clearance (clearly significant picks/other talent would have to go across). But its highly unlikely the Bulls are going to be able to trade for a big name player without needing to send money back and Asik's contract could be a key asset in those plans (again, this is all speculative in nature as I don't know there plans).

[ZoomSlowik]

Agree on the efficiency. And I love Tyson and Asik is clearly not in the same league as him. However, whose to say Asik can't improve around the hoop.

 

Javal Mcgee was offered 5yrs 50M. Raw and athletic. Lots to still prove. I actually have zero problem if the Bulls don't match either. I am irritated at how they handled this whole situation with Asik and how they failed to turn him into an asset. However, if they match, I'm fine, assuming they intend and believe they can turn him into an asset and have a bigger plan. If the plan is to keep him for 3 years, well the Bulls are likely going to be in trouble.

 

McGee is a bonehead, but has proven production and is way more explosive. There's a very big difference between putting up 11-8 and what you get from Asik.

[ZoomSlowik]

I'm talking about whether you can trade him. I'm not talking about long-term whether it works. If you can trade him a year from now, then you end up getting an asset out of Asik. That is the question. I'm not looking at what he'll be 3 years from now. A year from now can you trade him for a TPE and a pick (or something along those lines)? If you can, you make this deal and keep working with Asik. If you don't think that sort of market exists, then you don't match.

 

And I'm saying it's not remotely worth taking that risk. The reward is that you get your backup center for a tolerable rate for two years before dumping him. The risk is that you just blew up your roster for a guy that is at best your 6th best player and 4th best big man and possibly even lower overall.

[Chisoxfn]

McGee is a bonehead, but has proven production and is way more explosive. There's a very big difference between putting up 11-8 and what you get from Asik.

McGee is a much better player, who possesses elite athletism. 24 and stupid with size and athletism is going to get you paid. I expect him to eventually end up getting a little more then that offer. History has proven that relatively mediocre bigs can get paid pretty big money.

[Chisoxfn]

And I'm saying it's not remotely worth taking that risk. The reward is that you get your backup center for a tolerable rate for two years before dumping him. The risk is that you just blew up your roster for a guy that is at best your 6th best player and 4th best big man and possibly even lower overall.

The next question is, whether uncle Jerry will be willing to go into luxury tax territory for 2 years of that deal (or at least be willing to risk that). If he says he is, then you at least know you can resign Taj. This year the Bulls will be close, however, depending on how everything works out they may not even touch the luxury tax this year. However, the repeat offender price in yr 3 would be brutal. All stuff that I'm not privy to.

 

IF the Bulls are making this decision and say, if we can't deal Asik we don't match Taj, then they should be running away as fast as possible. I don't know what the front office thinks, but my thought process is, can i trade him, will uncle jerry protect me if I can't trade him (so I can keep Taj).

[Chisoxfn]

New reports out there that the Bulls will get a 5M TPE from the Hawks (and that Hinrich will not be part of the S&T). However, it sounds like there is still some stuff that has to be finalized on the Minnesota front.

[Soxbadger]

Better than I would have thought

[ZoomSlowik]

The next question is, whether uncle Jerry will be willing to go into luxury tax territory for 2 years of that deal (or at least be willing to risk that). If he says he is, then you at least know you can resign Taj. This year the Bulls will be close, however, depending on how everything works out they may not even touch the luxury tax this year. However, the repeat offender price in yr 3 would be brutal. All stuff that I'm not privy to.

 

IF the Bulls are making this decision and say, if we can't deal Asik we don't match Taj, then they should be running away as fast as possible. I don't know what the front office thinks, but my thought process is, can i trade him, will uncle jerry protect me if I can't trade him (so I can keep Taj).

 

If they match, they're a luxury tax team. From Shamsports, so if the numbers are off, blame them:

 

Rose- $15.5

Boozer- $15

Deng- $13.65

Noah- $11.3

Rip- $5

Asik- $5

Kirk- $3

Taj- $2

Butler- $1

Teague- $.85

 

Total- $72.3 mil, and that isn't a full roster yet.

 

 

They basically HAVE to amnesty Carlos after next year, otherwise their options are another tax year, losing Taj, or dumping Deng/Noah somewhere.

 

Then 2014/15 could be rough. You're looking at $45 mil for Rose/Noah/Asik. Boozer would be a whopping $16.8 mil if he's still there. Taj is at least $5 mil, maybe more. They wouldn't have any cap room, so they'd pretty much be forced to keep Deng (Bird rights) or take a major downgrade. Unless they drafted well, they still wouldn't have more than an MLE-caliber SG. That's pretty much guaranteed to be a tax year unless they go REALLY cheap on the wings.

 

Basically unless they REALLY cut costs, Asik locks them into the tax for at least two years, and would cost them someone important to avoid the repeat offender status (2015 is way too far to project, might be tough to avoid it that year too depending on what moves are made). It also kills what could have been a major chance to retool in 2014 free agency (though admittedly it'd require amnesty for Boozer and renouncing Deng). There's still trades, but we know how that typically goes.

Edited July 14, 2012 by ZoomSlowik

[Jake]

Just get OJ Mayo and call it a day.