2012-2013 NBA thread

[ZoomSlowik]

A high USG rate indicates a guy who has proven that he can be a #1 option. Thats exactly who we want, a #1 option who can be our #2 option. Someone who can take the game over when Rose is having a bad day. Another star to face the Heat.

 

I think you're the one looking at the wrong thing. http://hoopdata.com/player.aspx?name=Manu%20Ginobili

 

2007 27 USG

2008 28.69 USG

2009 27 USG

 

and elite efficiency to match.

 

Weird, Hollinger has different numbers. Those ones on hoop data make no sense to me though. Look at Manu's counting numbers, he doesn't take signficantly more shots, free throws or get more assists than Harden. Again, Manu has never taken more than 13 shots a game. The difference between the two is negligible in terms of usage.

 

All usage rate means is that you shoot the ball a lot. MAKING a lot of shots is what makes you a real #1 option. Would you really feel better about Harden if he were playing for the Bobcats and scoring 20 points on 17 shots? How many possessions you use is largely dependent on your teammates, just look at what happened to Bosh when he went to Miami. If all you want is a higher usage rate for our #2, tell Thibs to start running more plays for Boozer and Deng.

Edited July 31, 2012 by ZoomSlowik

[ZoomSlowik]

he played 21 games with the bucks doe...we really gonna judge a guy who was traded midseason and played only 21 games with his new team?

 

When you suck that bad, yeah. Other, better players made the transition in-season successfully (Pau, Billups, Rasheed and Carter off the top of my head). If he had averaged 30 a game for that stretch, you know people would be raving about it.

[RZZZA]

It's not just a high USG rate that's important, it's also how efficient and productive you manage to be under those circumstances. If you have a high USG rate, naturally the other team is treating you like an offensive threat, that means they're likely putting their best defender on you, they're keying in on you with 2 guys at times, they're always watching you on the court. Can you be efficient under those circumstances? Can you stay on the court for more than 30 minutes per game? Can you draw a large sample size of shot attempts year in and year out, on a consistent basis?

 

That's also why I would rather have Russell Westbrook than James Harden. Westbrooks efficiency is pedestrian, but he has one of the highest USG's in the game and the lowest %ast'd numbers. It tells me he's very, very good at initiating offense and no stranger to beating good defenses.

 

I'd much rather have a guy like that than Harden, who is very efficient but does not usually initiate his own offense and has a very small USG, indicating he mostly goes up against bench guys and teams aren't keying in on him as much.

 

 

[Jordan4life_2007]

It's not just a high USG rate that's important, it's also how efficient and productive you manage to be under those circumstances. If you have a high USG rate, naturally the other team is treating you like an offensive threat, that means they're likely putting their best defender on you, they're keying in on you with 2 guys at times, they're always watching you on the court. Can you be efficient under those circumstances? Can you stay on the court for more than 30 minutes per game? Can you draw a large sample size of shot attempts year in and year out, on a consistent basis?

 

That's also why I would rather have Russell Westbrook than James Harden. Westbrooks efficiency is pedestrian, but he has one of the highest USG's in the game and the lowest %ast'd numbers. It tells me he's very, very good at initiating offense and no stranger to beating good defenses.

 

I'd much rather have a guy like that than Harden, who is very efficient but does not usually initiate his own offense and has a very small USG, indicating he mostly goes up against bench guys and teams aren't keying in on him as much.

 

Yeah ok. And if the Bulls signed him you'd be purchasing his jersey online. Harden is a stud. Let it go.

[RZZZA]

I would be cautiously optimistic and I'd cheer my lungs out for him.

 

Make no mistake, I'm a bulls fan first

[ZoomSlowik]

It's not just a high USG rate that's important, it's also how efficient and productive you manage to be under those circumstances. If you have a high USG rate, naturally the other team is treating you like an offensive threat, that means they're likely putting their best defender on you, they're keying in on you with 2 guys at times, they're always watching you on the court. Can you be efficient under those circumstances? Can you stay on the court for more than 30 minutes per game? Can you draw a large sample size of shot attempts year in and year out, on a consistent basis?

 

That's also why I would rather have Russell Westbrook than James Harden. Westbrooks efficiency is pedestrian, but he has one of the highest USG's in the game and the lowest %ast'd numbers. It tells me he's very, very good at initiating offense and no stranger to beating good defenses.

 

I'd much rather have a guy like that than Harden, who is very efficient but does not usually initiate his own offense and has a very small USG, indicating he mostly goes up against bench guys and teams aren't keying in on him as much.

 

You're really missing the point. We already have Derrick Rose. He's our high usage guy that takes all the tough shots and initiates our offfense. You need someone to HELP him, not fight him for the ball. We're not talking about a neutral roster that needs someone to carry the team on it's back, we're talking about the Bulls.

 

If we had someone like Monta Ellis or Russell Westbrook on the floor at the same time as Rose, both guys would suffer. You can't have two guys dribbling and attacking at the exact same time, there's only one ball on the floor. That's also one less guy to space the floor and make people pay when the defense collapses on the drive, and all of those guys are dubious options defensively at the SG spot.

 

Having two guys that combine for 40 shots a game (which is what you seem to want) isn't going to help you if they both have a TS% below 55.

 

 

[RZZZA]

You're really missing the point. We already have Derrick Rose. He's our high usage guy that takes all the tough shots and initiates our offfense. You need someone to HELP him, not fight him for the ball.

 

This is the crux of where we disagree. Do we really want to continue to be the type of team that needs Rose to take all the tough shots and initiate our offense to the degree he has been?

 

I'm arguing no, that it will be more beneficial to us to have Rose take less shots and have a lower USG. Less responsibilities. Less weight on his back.

 

I mean Carlos Boozer has a higher USG than James Harden and he's efficient as well. But its not all aobut scoring efficiency, you have to look at the total player.

Edited July 31, 2012 by RZZZA

[Balta1701]

This is the crux of where we disagree. Do we really want to continue to be the type of team that needs Rose to take all the tough shots and initiate our offense to the degree he has been?

 

I'm arguing no, that it will be more beneficial to us to have Rose take less shots and have a lower USG. Less responsibilities. Less weight on his back.

 

I mean Carlos Boozer has a higher USG than James Harden and he's efficient as well. But its not all aobut scoring efficiency, you have to look at the total player.

If he's back to 100%, I want the ball starting off in Rose's hand as much as possible. What I don't want is for Rose to have to penetrate past 4 Heat defenders because they don't respect anyone else, either on the drive or on the open shot.

[RZZZA]

Do we really want Rose to continue to have a 30 USG? I mean that's Russell Westbrook/Lebron James type USG. Except we don't have Durant or Wade on our team. Unless we're getting Durant to play SG for us I don't see the sense in NOT trying to take the ball out of Derricks hands a little with a guy who can initiate his own offense reliably when he needs to.

 

There's no way this kid can survive with a USG that high every year. It's not fair to ask him to. We need another ballhandler/penetrator not another guy who stands on the perimeter to chuck 3's.

[ZoomSlowik]

This is the crux of where we disagree. Do we really want to continue to be the type of team that needs Rose to take all the tough shots and initiate our offense to the degree he has been?

 

I'm arguing no, that it will be more beneficial to us to have Rose take less shots and have a lower USG. Less responsibilities. Less weight on his back.

 

You're killing me man.

 

There are things called "roles" on a basketball team. You need guys that can handle the ball, guys that can shoot, guys that can rebound, ect. Good teams generally balance these things well.

 

Derrick is a ball-handler and driver. The bulk of his responsibilities are to break down the defense and either get a good shot or find the open man. There's no question about what he's supposed to do in most situations. He's always going to be a ball-handler and driver. He's not suddenly going to become a shot-blocker and he's probably never going to be a big time outside shooter.

 

Things that will actually make that job easier: Wing players that can hit jumpers to prevent collapsing defenses and big men that can finish and/or hit jumpers when they get the ball on a pick-and-roll/off a drive.

 

A guy that does the exact same thing as Rose doesn't really do that. Giving Rose a bit of a break now and then certainly doesn't hurt. However, a guy that can't hit the jumper when they collapse on Rose does. A guy that forces Rose to play off the ball more does. A guy that forces Rose to do something other than break down the defense with the ball in his hands does.

 

There's a reason you don't see guys play multiple PG's or three big men: it makes it a lot harder to fill the other roles on the court because you have multiple guys doing basically the same thing.

 

Someone like Harden would make things a lot easier for Rose. He can hit jumpers when the D collapses and he still has the ability to drive and get his own shot. It makes Rose's job easier AND cuts his workload a bit instead of cutting his workload and putting another ball-handler in his way.

 

Now if they could get someone like Westbrook, you can make it work with those talents. That's just a bad allocation of dollars though and causes holes elsewhere.

[ZoomSlowik]

Do we really want Rose to continue to have a 30 USG? I mean that's Russell Westbrook/Lebron James type USG. Except we don't have Durant or Wade on our team. Unless we're getting Durant to play SG for us I don't see the sense in NOT trying to take the ball out of Derricks hands a little with a guy who can initiate his own offense reliably when he needs to.

 

There's no way this kid can survive with a USG that high every year. It's not fair to ask him to. We need another ballhandler/penetrator not another guy who stands on the perimeter to chuck 3's.

 

Unless you get someone better than Rose, he's always going to have that kind of usage rate. That's how the league works, your best players get the ball the most often. You just rebutted your own argument, Westbrook and Lebron still have huge usage rates despite extremely talented teammates. He's not suddenly going to start taking 15 shots a game.

[RZZZA]

Let's put it this way: I'd rather have 3 guys on the team with a USG rate at 25 then 1 guy on the team with a USG rate of 30+

 

You mention the Spurs, but the Spurs have 3 guys with a USG rate that's 25+ every year. Duncan, Parker, Ginoblli, that's 3 guys who demand defensive attention.

 

Having one guy with a USG Rate of 30+ and everyone else with a USG rate thats below 25 is not a recipe for success, generally speaking

 

If we want to let Rose continue to be a 30+ USG guy, we need to get him another star with a high USG just like the Celtis, Spurs, Thunder and Heat have

 

Our highest USG guys after Rose are Rip Hamilton and Carlos Boozer. Not good.

 

We need a little bit more than just a guy who can hit a jumper when Rose collapses the defense. We need a legit star.

Edited July 31, 2012 by RZZZA

[Balta1701]

We need a little bit more than just a guy who can hit a jumper when Rose collapses the defense. We need a legit star.

If one is available (and Love seems like the only even remotely possible option right now unless Howard changes his mind on liking Chicago) then of course we'd go for that.

 

I can't see how we can throw up our hands otherwise though. With Rose and Thibs, the Bulls will be a 40-50 win team if Rose stays healthy, and that isn't getting at top pick until 2016 if the Bobcats stay bad.

[ZoomSlowik]

Let's put it this way: I'd rather have 3 guys on the team with a USG rate at 25 then 1 guy on the team with a USG rate of 30+

 

You mention the Spurs, but the Spurs have 3 guys with a USG rate that's 25+ every year. Duncan, Parker, Ginoblli, that's 3 guys who demand defensive attention.

 

Having one guy with a USG Rate of 30+ and everyone else with a USG rate thats below 25 is not a recipe for success, generally speaking

 

If we want to let Rose continue to be a 30+ USG guy, we need to get him another star with a high USG just like the Celtis, Spurs, Thunder and Heat have

 

Our highest USG guys after Rose are Rip Hamilton and Carlos Boozer. Not good.

 

For about the 4th time, usage rate is largely based on your circumstances. There just aren't enough possessions available for Harden to put up 18 shots because Westbrook and Durant are on his team. Playing with other good players drops your usage rate. Lebron's dropped by 2 a game when he joined the Heat, Wade's dropped by 4, Bosh's dropped by 4-5 from his typical ranges. If Harden joined the Bulls, he'd get way more chances to shoot with only Deng and the likely fading Boozer fighting him for the #2 option. Rose's would also probably go down slightly with someone else that gets assists and drives, though it'd still be well north of 25 since he's your point guard and your best scorer.

 

When you have an elite guard, you're going to have a high usage rate. Guys that handle the ball and score are going to put up high usage numbers regardless. You want that guy putting up high usages rates, or you're going to have worse players carrying the load for you.

 

Guards tend to have higher usage rates than big men since bigs don't handle the ball, that's why Dirk and Duncan don't crack 30 possessions used even though they're the focal point of their respective offenses. The Bulls don't have one of those.

 

No one is suggesting that they suround him with a bunch of Kyle Korvers. We're talking about James Harden, a guy that scored 17 a game despite reigning in his shot attempts considerably.

 

Side note: When basketball reference and hoop data reference "usage rate", they appear to use it as percentage of the total possessions used for the team. When Hollinger does it, it's the raw number of possessions that player uses in 40 minutes, which seems more useful. For instance, Rose actually had more raw possessions used than Lebron and Wade, but they both took up a higher percentage of the Heat's plays when they were on the floor.

Edited August 1, 2012 by ZoomSlowik

[2nd_city_saint787]

I've never heard of usage rate in my life. I keep it old school, I look at min, points, and field goal percentage and I usually compare those to guys on the bulls....I don't look too deep into the other mumbo jumbo. That said, James Harden is a beast. Harden, like OJ Mayo whom everyone wanted, comes off the bench to offer the team a scoring option off the bench. I know you can mix and match who's out there but could you imagine how bad the Thunders 2nd unit would be if Harden wasn't comin off the bench?

 

Normally I can get behind your arguments RZZZA, because your a homer like myself, but this one I just can't. Stop it.

 

Hardens FG% was nearly 50% and his 3p% was nearly 40%

 

in 8 less mpg than Deng (our 2nd option) he scored more points, more assists, and shot better from everywhere on the court.

 

How one would not love to have Harden on this Bulls team is beyond me.

[RZZZA]

In 2011, Arron Afflalo's TS% was 62% and his 3P% was 42% amd his FG% was nearly 50%.

 

But you know, Arron Afflalo is not taking over any games, and neither is Harden.

 

These are guys you want to get if you happen to think Derrick Rose should still be the focal point of our offense, they aren't guys you get if you think Derrick should ease back and get a break once in awhile. They're guys who benefit off the drive and kick, just like every other player we have now. They aren't guys you toss the ball to and say "Here, create. Carry the offense."

 

Don't get me wrong, we'd definitely be better with Harden or Afflalo playing the 2 if money somehow wasn't an issue and we could just plug them in. But they aren't guys who have ever shown themselves capable of carrying a team. I just think we need that other guy.

Edited August 1, 2012 by RZZZA

[gatnom]

In 2011, Arron Afflalo's TS% was 62% and his 3P% was 42% amd his FG% was nearly 50%.

 

But you know, Arron Afflalo is not taking over any games, and neither is Harden.

 

These are guys you want to get if you happen to think Derrick Rose should still be the focal point of our offense, they aren't guys you get if you think Derrick should ease back and get a break once in awhile. They're guys who benefit off the drive and kick, just like every other player we have now. They aren't guys you toss the ball to and say "Here, create. Carry the offense."

 

Don't get me wrong, we'd definitely be better with Harden or Afflalo playing the 2 if money somehow wasn't an issue and we could just plug them in. But they aren't guys who have ever shown themselves capable of carrying a team. I just think we need that other guy.

 

I guess I don't understand how you envision Derrick Rose to be anything other than the focal point of the Bulls' offense. He is who he is.

 

 

[ZoomSlowik]

In 2011, Arron Afflalo's TS% was 62% and his 3P% was 42% amd his FG% was nearly 50%.

 

But you know, Arron Afflalo is not taking over any games, and neither is Harden.

 

These are guys you want to get if you happen to think Derrick Rose should still be the focal point of our offense, they aren't guys you get if you think Derrick should ease back and get a break once in awhile. They're guys who benefit off the drive and kick, just like every other player we have now. They aren't guys you toss the ball to and say "Here, create. Carry the offense."

 

Don't get me wrong, we'd definitely be better with Harden or Afflalo playing the 2 if money somehow wasn't an issue and we could just plug them in. But they aren't guys who have ever shown themselves capable of carrying a team. I just think we need that other guy.

 

Unless you're getting Lebron, Rose is going to be the focal point of your offense.

 

Also, pretty much no one on the Bulls right now is built for the drive and kick. Korver was their only real shooter, now it's Belinelli.

Edited August 1, 2012 by ZoomSlowik

[RZZZA]

He showed a little bit of hanging back this year, there was a 20 or so game period when Rose and Rip were on the court at the same time, and all the other starters were healthy too. Our offense looked beautiful. Rose was just hanging back at the 3pt line, letting Rip handle ballhandling duties, and the ball was moving great and Rose was not being exerted 100% for the majority of a game. I loved it.

 

 

[ZoomSlowik]

He showed a little bit of hanging back this year, there was a 20 or so game period when Rose and Rip were on the court at the same time, and all the other starters were healthy too. Our offense looked beautiful. Rose was just hanging back at the 3pt line, letting Rip handle ballhandling duties, and the ball was moving great and Rose was not being exerted 100% for the majority of a game. I loved it.

 

You are delusional. Kobe Bryant was the only player in the league that had more used possessions last year.

 

I give up.

Edited August 1, 2012 by ZoomSlowik

[RZZZA]

I said he showed a little bit of it. Am I the only one who remembers what we looked like when everyone was healthy? Rose and Rip worked pretty well with eachother, Derrick was trying to figure out how to play with him. He'd hang back at the 3pt line and just toss the ball to Rip and let him work. The passing between Rip/Noah/Boozer was beautiful

 

Go ahead and "give up" and call me delusional, I know what I know and I saw what I saw.

[2nd_city_saint787]

In 2011, Arron Afflalo's TS% was 62% and his 3P% was 42% amd his FG% was nearly 50%.

 

But you know, Arron Afflalo is not taking over any games, and neither is Harden.

 

These are guys you want to get if you happen to think Derrick Rose should still be the focal point of our offense, they aren't guys you get if you think Derrick should ease back and get a break once in awhile. They're guys who benefit off the drive and kick, just like every other player we have now. They aren't guys you toss the ball to and say "Here, create. Carry the offense."

 

Don't get me wrong, we'd definitely be better with Harden or Afflalo playing the 2 if money somehow wasn't an issue and we could just plug them in. But they aren't guys who have ever shown themselves capable of carrying a team. I just think we need that other guy.

 

 

Why in the world would he not be when he's healthy again? That may not be this year but next year he'll be 100%. Past the 5'11 Ty Lawson who would you want rzzza? Don't think youve answered that yet.

[RZZZA]

Manu would be nice. Eric Jordan, I mean Gordon. Kyle Lowry and Ty Lawson are undersized but really good. Joe Johnson, Kevin Martin. O.J. Mayo and J.R. Smith are project guys who you hope you can fix.

 

I'd want Harden and Arron Afflalo but I'd expect them to grow into the role. Harden would need to become a better defender and prove he can play starters minutes against starters. Arron Afflalo would also need to prove that, and he'd need to get better at iso ball. He's already a good defender though.

Edited August 1, 2012 by RZZZA

[2nd_city_saint787]

Harden played 31 mpg, thats what 4 min away from starters minutes?? Of the guys you mentioned only Joe Johnson scored more ppg than Harden by 2 points....I'd venture to believe if you give Harden the 4 more mpg that JJ got that he'd be able to score that extra 2ppg and then some.

 

Harden was 27th in scoring, and of the top 30 scorers he ranked 7th in fg%, only 2 of those guys ahead of him are non bigs....Lebron .531 Durant .496 Harden .491...And he also had the best 3P% of anyone in the top 30.

Edited August 1, 2012 by 2nd_city_saint787

[Balta1701]

I said he showed a little bit of it. Am I the only one who remembers what we looked like when everyone was healthy? Rose and Rip worked pretty well with eachother, Derrick was trying to figure out how to play with him. He'd hang back at the 3pt line and just toss the ball to Rip and let him work. The passing between Rip/Noah/Boozer was beautiful

 

Go ahead and "give up" and call me delusional, I know what I know and I saw what I saw.

Pretty much yeah. We saw what, 1/4 of a game of that last season?