The Adam Dunn Batting Average Poll

[Dick Allen]

You could put a dress on a pig, but it is still a pig. This is what Dunn does, always has been, always will be. he isnt going to magically start hitting in the .260s and driving the ball the other way because he wants to.

He hit in the .260s at Washington, and didn't always strike out at a 240 time a season clip.

[Princess Dye]

Talking about how many runs he has scored is mostly just reflective of the other guys in the lineup in those particular situations. What I gather is this -- he's not getting on-base as much as old Dunn did...so he's worse in that respect.

 

Still doesn't mean he isn't very helpful, and he has absolutely carried us in stretches.

 

Last year was so awful. I'm beyond content with what I'm getting.

[LittleHurt05]

For all the talk about how Dunn is not "clutch" and how he has never played for a winning team, he sure as hell has hit some BIG late game homers this season for the Sox.

[cabiness42]

He hit in the .260s at Washington, and didn't always strike out at a 240 time a season clip.

 

That wasn't because his approach was different--it was because he was more successful with his approach back then.

[Kyyle23]

He hit in the .260s at Washington, and didn't always strike out at a 240 time a season clip.

 

He has only hit in the .260s a few times in his career, it isn't reasonable to expect it from him. And the strikeouts may be high, but he is always in the top of the league in strikeouts

[southsider2k5]

Dunn now has the same amount of official ABs as last year. 9 more plate appearances He has 20 more hits. 21 more extra base hits. 23 more homers. 9 more walks and 7 less strike outs. The more contact he makes, the more homers he will hit. Not less. Imagine what his numbers would look like if he was at the 140 strikeout mark now.

 

It wouldn't even have to be 140, but even a 200 strike out pace would give him 40 more balls in play. We are talking what, 5 or 6 more homers probably?

[lasttriptotulsa]

It wouldn't even have to be 140, but even a 200 strike out pace would give him 40 more balls in play. We are talking what, 5 or 6 more homers probably?

 

1 out of every 7 balls Dunn puts in play is a homerun, so yes based on that your numbers would be correct. It's really hard to say how many would be taken away by cutting down on his swing to try and put those balls into play though. He does have quite a few 370-390 foot homers this year that maybe would be turned into routine fly-outs.

[southsider2k5]

1 out of every 7 balls Dunn puts in play is a homerun, so yes based on that your numbers would be correct. It's really hard to say how many would be taken away by cutting down on his swing to try and put those balls into play though. He does have quite a few 370-390 foot homers this year that maybe would be turned into routine fly-outs.

 

Everytime I have seen him hit the ball the other way, it still jumps off of his bat. If he did it regularly, he might also make some teams stop using that shift against him.

[hammerhead johnson]

His OPS is still only .826, fellas. He was threatening to go below .800 just a few days ago.

[Greg Hibbard]

OPS down to .824 so it's time to bump this thread again. He's down to .204 BA.

 

Here's an interesting stat

 

In April, May and June, Dunn struck out 125 times in 272 ABs

 

In July and August he's struck out 58 times in 179 ABs

 

Seems like he's cutting his strikeout rate down, but his BA is suffering. Also, when his K rate was highest, his walk rate and homer rate were also highest.

Edited August 28, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[Jake]

Like I said, if Adam tries to make more contact he hits fewer home runs. He has a home run swing and a contact swing and they don't blend together well. Those strikeouts get to your head though, so I understand that he is trying to make some more contact. How many warning track flies have you seen from him lately compared to the first half?

 

I have to wonder if some of the difference in Dunn's numbers is related to having better hitters around him than ever before.

[Dick Allen]

Like I said, if Adam tries to make more contact he hits fewer home runs. He has a home run swing and a contact swing and they don't blend together well. Those strikeouts get to your head though, so I understand that he is trying to make some more contact. How many warning track flies have you seen from him lately compared to the first half?

 

I have to wonder if some of the difference in Dunn's numbers is related to having better hitters around him than ever before.

If he made more contact, he'd hit more home runs not less. You can't homer striking out. A ball that clears the fence by 5 feet counts just as much as one that clears it by 100. If he makes solid contact and gets it in the air, its gone even if he doesn't swing as hard as he can.

[Greg Hibbard]

If he made more contact, he'd hit more home runs not less. You can't homer striking out. A ball that clears the fence by 5 feet counts just as much as one that clears it by 100. If he makes solid contact and gets it in the air, its gone even if he doesn't swing as hard as he can.

 

With all due respect, I think this is incorrect.

 

If he changes his proven approach, he'll be less effective as a hitter, in all areas.

 

As I pointed out, when his K rate is highest, his homer and walk rate is highest. Is this a coincidence? I don't think so.

 

My theory is that when he swings for the fences most effectively, he also tends to strike out more because he commits to more pitches earlier.

 

When he's hitting a lot of home runs, he also tends to be more selective with pitches when he's going well, as many hitters are. More K's = more homers. More homers = more walks.

 

Here's hoping he strikes out 300 times. After all, it's just another out.

Edited August 28, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[Dick Allen]

With all due respect, I think this is incorrect.

 

If he changes his proven approach, he'll be less effective as a hitter, in all areas.

 

As I pointed out, when his K rate is highest, his homer and walk rate is highest. Is this a coincidence? I don't think so.

 

My theory is that when he swings for the fences most effectively, he also tends to strike out more because he commits to more pitches earlier.

 

When he's hitting a lot of home runs, he also tends to be more selective with pitches when he's going well, as many hitters are. More K's = more homers. More homers = more walks.

 

Here's hoping he strikes out 300 times. After all, it's just another out.

He's swinging hard and his OPS is the second lowest of his career. His lowest was last year when his strikeout rate was the highest of his career. The more often he strikes out, the lower his OPS is.

[Greg Hibbard]

He's swinging hard and his OPS is the second lowest of his career. His lowest was last year when his strikeout rate was the highest of his career. The more often he strikes out, the lower his OPS is.

 

Setting aside last season, which was anomalous in every respect, when he strikes out more he tends to hit more homers.

[Jerksticks]

Here's hoping he strikes out 300 times. After all, it's just another out.

 

With all due respect, you know damn well plenty of people rightfully disagree with this. Of course that's why I assume you said it like it was gospel right, to get a jab in?

 

Some people believe there is such a thing as a productive, team-oriented, getting the job done, or sacrificial out. Some people don't and that's ok with me. Why can't some people acknowledge the two sides of this topic?

[Greg Hibbard]

With all due respect, you know damn well plenty of people rightfully disagree with this. Of course that's why I assume you said it like it was gospel right, to get a jab in?

 

Some people believe there is such a thing as a productive, team-oriented, getting the job done, or sacrificial out. Some people don't and that's ok with me. Why can't some people acknowledge the two sides of this topic?

 

Are you kidding? The guy had TWO INFIELD SINGLES in the past two nights, one which was, at the time, the GO AHEAD RBI.

 

Adam Dunn has been making a s***-ton more contact in the second half than he did in the first, and now people are complaining about his batting average...

 

...All while STILL saying he's striking out too much! Yes, my comment was obviously a bit facetious but I do think when this guy is going well he's striking out a ton and homering a ton.

 

The guy has struck out 63 times in the last 53 games he's played (195 AB). Given his average number of yearly AB, that would project out to 170 per season - right around where he usually is on his BEST full seasons.

 

Meanwhile, his BA drops, his homers drop.

 

How can this guy win with some people, honestly?

 

[Dick Allen]

Are you kidding? The guy had TWO INFIELD SINGLES in the past two nights, one which was, at the time, the GO AHEAD RBI.

 

Adam Dunn has been making a s***-ton more contact in the second half than he did in the first, and now people are complaining about his batting average...

 

...All while STILL saying he's striking out too much! Yes, my comment was obviously a bit facetious but I do think when this guy is going well he's striking out a ton and homering a ton.

 

The guy has struck out 63 times in the last 53 games he's played (195 AB). Given his average number of yearly AB, that would project out to 170 per season - right around where he usually is on his BEST full seasons.

 

Meanwhile, his BA drops, his homers drop.

 

How can this guy win with some people, honestly?

He's striking out less, but his HR pace hasn't declined. His last year in Washington, he had 99 more plate appearances than he has right now, and he had 23 more extra basehits. Even leading the league in walks, his OBP is well below his career average, and even leading the league in walks and homers his OPS is below is career average. I love power guys, but I'm sure he'd tell you, he's a bit embarrassed by a couple of his numbers.

[southsider2k5]

Are you kidding? The guy had TWO INFIELD SINGLES in the past two nights, one which was, at the time, the GO AHEAD RBI.

 

Adam Dunn has been making a s***-ton more contact in the second half than he did in the first, and now people are complaining about his batting average...

 

...All while STILL saying he's striking out too much! Yes, my comment was obviously a bit facetious but I do think when this guy is going well he's striking out a ton and homering a ton.

 

The guy has struck out 63 times in the last 53 games he's played (195 AB). Given his average number of yearly AB, that would project out to 170 per season - right around where he usually is on his BEST full seasons.

 

Meanwhile, his BA drops, his homers drop.

 

How can this guy win with some people, honestly?

 

His batting average has been dropping for three months now, even when he was on the 240 K pace and 50 homer pace.

[Jake]

I think we try to extrapolate the data too far. Obviously he won't hit 100 HRs if he strikes out 400 times. Within a certain range, though, it seems that his approach changing to make more contact is costing him power. This shouldn't surprise anyone, think about when you played baseball, how hard you might hit something if you were trying not to strike out (many of us had coaches that were not cool with strikeouts). It's not very far.

 

My guess is that Adam's "no striking out" adjustment is to his swing and not his pitch selection. He should avoid striking out by hitting the correct pitch and watching the incorrect ones. My eye tells me that he is swinging at the same amount or worse amount of pitches he shouldn't, but alters his swing to try to touch them instead of missing them like he used to.

[Dick Allen]

I think we try to extrapolate the data too far. Obviously he won't hit 100 HRs if he strikes out 400 times. Within a certain range, though, it seems that his approach changing to make more contact is costing him power. This shouldn't surprise anyone, think about when you played baseball, how hard you might hit something if you were trying not to strike out (many of us had coaches that were not cool with strikeouts). It's not very far.

 

My guess is that Adam's "no striking out" adjustment is to his swing and not his pitch selection. He should avoid striking out by hitting the correct pitch and watching the incorrect ones. My eye tells me that he is swinging at the same amount or worse amount of pitches he shouldn't, but alters his swing to try to touch them instead of missing them like he used to.

The numbers say he is striking out less the second half. They also say his HR rate is basically the same, just a fraction HIGHER. He is walking less and getting fewer hits.

[Kyyle23]

The data says gregory pratt can hit a Gavin Floyd fastball. (getting into the wayback machine for that one)

[Greg Hibbard]

The numbers say he is striking out less the second half. They also say his HR rate is basically the same, just a fraction HIGHER. He is walking less and getting fewer hits.

 

The pre/post all star splits are a bit deceiving because of the first few games after the all star game. Just after the allstar break, he had 11 strikeouts and 3 homers in the first six games.

 

Look at this split: up to July 15th vs. post July 15th, Ks, BBs vs. HRs.

 

Since July 15th game, he has 10 HR, 18 BB and 46K in 152 AB

Before that, he had 28 HR, 72 BB and 138K in 302 AB.

 

Seems like a pretty spectacular difference to me. Seems like a trend.

[Dick Allen]

The pre/post all star splits are a bit deceiving because of the first few games after the all star game. Just after the allstar break, he had 11 strikeouts and 3 homers in the first six games.

 

Look at this split: up to July 15th vs. post July 15th, Ks, BBs vs. HRs.

 

Since July 15th game, he has 10 HR, 18 BB and 46K in 152 AB

Before that, he had 28 HR, 72 BB and 138K in 302 AB.

 

Seems like a pretty spectacular difference to me. Seems like a trend.

The biggest difference to me seems to be the walk rate, and that's with cherry-picked numbers.