7/5 games

[caulfield12]

They had the guy from Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein on 670 around noon.

 

Said that basically none of the White Sox rookies were "impact" guys, except for Reed.

 

Made the comment that if the Cubs brought up their Iowa roster, they would have 13 rookies but that wouldn't make them good.

 

He had actually predicted Sox for 2nd and around 83-87 wins. Expressed surprise about Quintana and Nathan Jones.

 

The question was raised....how long would it take for Quintana to be considered as more than a fringe prospect or back of the rotation/long man...and the reply was that command and control guys, even left handed, who throw 88-91 are a dime a dozen. Then one of the radio guys asked....well, when do we start saying he's actually maybe better than that, project him as a Danks/Buehrle/Glavine type? And the response was...how many young pitchers with similar stuff are compared to those HOF type pitchers and how many actually come close to delivering those results?

 

 

Beckham also said that Manto/Ventura had them do a "ghost infield" drill and that it was "cool." No balls hit, caught or thrown. Just simulated...as if the ball was being hit and throw, turning a DP, etc. Diving and getting up and throwing. Said that Viciedo was the only one who didn't get it. That McEwing was stronger than Canseco with the way he was reacting so quickly to the ball being put into play and that they had to keep yelling at him he was using his imagination so poorly, lol.

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Pretty sure it is Nachreiner, had some physical problem with his knee, being degenerative. Scared all the clubs off, Sox decided to give it a try. He did not last too long if I recall.

 

That is who I was thinking of. Thanks.

[southsider2k5]

Beckham also said that Manto/Ventura had them do a "ghost infield" drill and that it was "cool." No balls hit, caught or thrown. Just simulated...as if the ball was being hit and throw, turning a DP, etc. Diving and getting up and throwing. Said that Viciedo was the only one who didn't get it. That McEwing was stronger than Canseco with the way he was reacting so quickly to the ball being put into play and that they had to keep yelling at him he was using his imagination so poorly, lol.

 

Imagine that, Robin stressing the mental side of the game. You can soooo see the difference on the field this year.

[oldsox]

Quintana was barely on the charts in our pre-season list (in the "others" list), so yeah, Heidenreich today is probably more highly considered than Quintana was then. You do sometimes end up with a bolt from the blue, or organizations see something in a specific pitcher or player that we don't see in stats, scouting reports, info leaking from the organization in some form, and videos. Heidenreich might be that guy.

 

But Hiedenreich isn't really "doing well in AA" yet - he pitched one game. Need to have a lot more sample size than that to really see something. And if you want to look granularly at that particular outing, look at his line in the box: he pitched 8 innings of 6 hit ball, which is good... but he gave up a home run and struck out 2. Some in some ways, that is a mircocosm of both the strengths and weaknesses he has shown so far.

 

Let's look at scenarios here. If Matt manages to not only be successful in terms of core stats, but also increases his strikeouts, I can see him quickly jumping up into the rankings on the offseason list. If he gets decent core results but still isn't missing many bats, he will probably show up on the list, but not real high. If he struggles, then it is a "we'll see" scenario. That's my view anyway. And that's just the stat component - more important, and info harder to find, is, has he improved his secondary stuff?

 

This is all very, very subjective of course. And there is a balance between ceiling, likely impact, and likely floor. And between starters and relievers. And what level they've shown success at, including in some cases major leagues. Look at some of the pitchers that some see as better, and decide if you see him higher on the list: Simon Castro, Nestor Molina, Dylan Axelrod, Pedro Hernandez, Charlie Leesman, Chris Beck, Andre Rienzo, Jake Petricka, Erik Johnson, Leyson Septimo, Jeff Soptic, Jefferson Olacio... the list goes on, and those are just pitchers. Does a guy like Septimo, who is a specialist reliever, have more value since he's shown success at all levels and now (so far) in the majors? Versus a starter like Heidenreich, but who is a much bigger question of whether he can even make it?

You have given a lot of interesting thoughts here, much appreciated. All of those prospects you mentioned in your final paragraph have one thing in common with Heidenreich -- I have not seen them. Well actually, I have seen Axelrod and Septimo on TV since they were called up. I would have to give an edge over MH to both Axlerod and Leesman -- seniority, if nothing else, and they have performed well at AAA and in Axelrod's case with the Sox. Today, I would rate MH over the rest of them. We'll probably know a lot more at end of year, certainly by next year at this time.

 

Meanwhile, I was looking for your most recent Prospect List but could not find it in archives. Are you able to show it here? Thanks...

[NorthSideSox72]

They had the guy from Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein on 670 around noon.

 

Said that basically none of the White Sox rookies were "impact" guys, except for Reed.

 

Made the comment that if the Cubs brought up their Iowa roster, they would have 13 rookies but that wouldn't make them good.

 

He had actually predicted Sox for 2nd and around 83-87 wins. Expressed surprise about Quintana and Nathan Jones.

 

The question was raised....how long would it take for Quintana to be considered as more than a fringe prospect or back of the rotation/long man...and the reply was that command and control guys, even left handed, who throw 88-91 are a dime a dozen. Then one of the radio guys asked....well, when do we start saying he's actually maybe better than that, project him as a Danks/Buehrle/Glavine type? And the response was...how many young pitchers with similar stuff are compared to those HOF type pitchers and how many actually come close to delivering those results?

So, he's an idiot, apparently. Guys like him don't like being proven wrong. The Sox system sucks, these guys all say... and that is half true. It sucks for talent depth, not much argument there. It doesn't suck for results, and if he actually thinks these rookies aren't impact guys, then he needs to look at what they have done so far. Quintana will not keep up a low 2's ERA of course, no one denies that. Most of the Sox bullpen is rookies, and overall they've done pretty well. That's huge impact right there. Quintana has been huge. Viciedo and De Aza are not properly rookies, but are virtually so, and both have had huge impact. Axelrod was like the 7th guy on the starting depth chart to open the season and he's put up competent numbers for a 5th starter, and that has big impact for a team (see: early 2000's Sox teams who didn't have that).

 

Escobar and Flowers he's right - neither are doing a lot right now, and likely won't.

 

But the comparison to the Cubs? Is he kidding with that? Maybe he's the guy who predicted 100 losses and he's just bitter.

 

I do agree with him on that last thing though, the comparison to Danks/MB/Glavine is stupid.

 

And if THAT is his definition of impact, then guess what? Maybe 2 teams in baseball have guys like that just getting started, tops.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

You have given a lot of interesting thoughts here, much appreciated. All of those prospects you mentioned in your final paragraph have one thing in common with Heidenreich -- I have not seen them. Well actually, I have seen Axelrod and Septimo on TV since they were called up. I would have to give an edge over MH to both Axlerod and Leesman -- seniority, if nothing else, and they have performed well at AAA and in Axelrod's case with the Sox. Today, I would rate MH over the rest of them. We'll probably know a lot more at end of year, certainly by next year at this time.

 

Meanwhile, I was looking for your most recent Prospect List but could not find it in archives. Are you able to show it here? Thanks...

Got to futuresox.com, click on the "Rankings" button at the top for the ranking articles over time.

 

New one should be up next week. We now do them twice a year - July and January/February, more or less.

 

[caulfield12]

Ranking the system right now would be a huge pain in the ass.

 

Thankfully, there's the new infusion from the June draft. But, for example, the Dominican kid (16 yo SS) we signed, there's just no way to know where to stick him in the rankings.

 

A few guys have been pooh-pooing Hernandez, for example, because of his K rate, but at some point, where do results start to move him up the charts, ala Axelrod and Quintana, versus more toolsy/stuff pitchers?

 

Where do you put someone like Molina, who KW would still probably say with a straight face is one of our top 3 prospects? Which Mitchell is the real one? Same thing with Thompson and Saladino...how do you rate a bullpen arm (Soptic for example), versus a starting prospect, like Simon Castro?

 

 

[OilCan]

They had the guy from Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein on 670 around noon.

 

Said that basically none of the White Sox rookies were "impact" guys, except for Reed.

 

Made the comment that if the Cubs brought up their Iowa roster, they would have 13 rookies but that wouldn't make them good.

 

He had actually predicted Sox for 2nd and around 83-87 wins. Expressed surprise about Quintana and Nathan Jones.

 

The question was raised....how long would it take for Quintana to be considered as more than a fringe prospect or back of the rotation/long man...and the reply was that command and control guys, even left handed, who throw 88-91 are a dime a dozen. Then one of the radio guys asked....well, when do we start saying he's actually maybe better than that, project him as a Danks/Buehrle/Glavine type? And the response was...how many young pitchers with similar stuff are compared to those HOF type pitchers and how many actually come close to delivering those results?

 

Goldstein is quickly becoming another Keith Law in my book. His tweets would disparage anyone who debates him.

 

I guess Wins doesn't equal "Impact Guys" in his book, does it? Guess what Q is doing doesn't "Impact" the team. Same goes for Jones, Reed, etc.

 

I guess it just makes their job(s) HARDER to actually rate talent based off of more than what's on the back of their baseball card.

 

Hope the White Sox continue to show these idiots that they're wrong.

[OilCan]

And before anyone tells me, I get what Goldstein is saying. The Sox don't have a Trout, a Harper, a Pomeranz in their system.

 

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Goldstein is quickly becoming another Keith Law in my book. His tweets would disparage anyone who debates him.

 

I guess Wins doesn't equal "Impact Guys" in his book, does it? Guess what Q is doing doesn't "Impact" the team. Same goes for Jones, Reed, etc.

 

I guess it just makes their job(s) HARDER to actually rate talent based off of more than what's on the back of their baseball card.

 

Hope the White Sox continue to show these idiots that they're wrong.

 

The problem with him is that his tweets rarely if ever, answer the question. He talks in riddles, seemingly, and gives very vague answers. I get it's twitter and he has to limit character count, but he doesn't give much of an answer, and I ALWAYS see him answer the dumb questions.

 

I got in to it with him a few days ago because I wanted him to answer how the worst farm system in baseball the past few years had 10 rookies on it, and were in 1st place. This likely requires more than a 1 word answer, so he choose not to answer it, and instead was answering idiotic questions unrelated to baseball.....

 

@JoeCoolMan24

@Kevin_Goldstein How does the worst farm system in MLB each year have 10 rookies on their team, and are in 1st place?

 

No response after I tweeted this to him 3 times. No big deal, I'm sure he gets a lot of tweets he can't answer, but I started to get annoyed when he was answering dumb questions instead.....

 

‏@JoeCoolMan24

@JoeCoolMan24 @Kevin_Goldstein Guess I forgot to give you a softball question you'd be able to answer. I'll try to dumb it down next time.

 

@Kevin_Goldstein

@JoeCoolMan24 #Butthurt

 

Using middle school internet tactics to be a pest. So clearly he saw my question, but instead of answering it, went the super immature route....so I replied back and that was the end of it.

 

@JoeCoolMan24

@Kevin_Goldstein And then you follow it up by answering..."who would win in a fight between buster olney and jon heyman?" Nicely done.

[danman31]

I like Goldstein. I don't know why you'd get so worked up over him.

[Chisoxfn]

We took a kid from a Texas HS, hard thrower with poor knees, in about the 4th or 5th round. Not Heidenreich, let me see if I can find it, something like Niedenfeur??

 

Matthew J Nachreiner, 5th rounder in 2003 is who I bet he is thinking of.

Yep. He had no cartilage in his knees. Was a very high risk/high reward kind of pick. Tremendous arm and stuff, major medical red flag, and he ultimately didn't pan out.

[Chisoxfn]

Goldstein is quickly becoming another Keith Law in my book. His tweets would disparage anyone who debates him.

 

I guess Wins doesn't equal "Impact Guys" in his book, does it? Guess what Q is doing doesn't "Impact" the team. Same goes for Jones, Reed, etc.

 

I guess it just makes their job(s) HARDER to actually rate talent based off of more than what's on the back of their baseball card.

 

Hope the White Sox continue to show these idiots that they're wrong.

Isn't Goldstein a Sox fan. Or am I confusing him with one of the other minor league baseball experts?