FutureSox Mid-season 2012 Top Prospects List

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't understand having Chris Beck waaay ahead of Heidenreich. Same age, one a second rounder, the other a fourth, Beck getting pretty much lit up at Great Falls, Heidenreich solid now at High A (combined 101 innings/3.38 ERA/.244 BAA/pitching against older players). Seems like Beck is annoited hhis status.

Well first, Heidenreich has pretty uninspiring peripherals, particularly the fact that he doesn't strike many guys out. Second, whenever you are ranking a draft pick, you obviously cannot use any pro stats to evaluate. Beck has pitched in only a few games, which is next to meaningless. Have to go on tools/skills and college results and reports from scouts. Based on those things, Beck has higher potential. Also, Beck was at one time a much higher considered pick than this, but had a drop off his last season in college.

 

[southsider2k5]

I don't understand having Chris Beck waaay ahead of Heidenreich. Same age, one a second rounder, the other a fourth, Beck getting pretty much lit up at Great Falls, Heidenreich solid now at High A (combined 101 innings/3.38 ERA/.244 BAA/pitching against older players). Seems like Beck is annoited hhis status.

 

Beck was also projected as a top 10 pick prior to this year, who fell possibly because of easily reversible physical changes.

[Chisoxfn]

I agree with you, as I am also a ceiling guy when evaluating upside in the system, but I don't have Danks and Axelrod on my personal list cause they are just too old to be considered legitimate prospects in my eyes. Obviously I have bias on guys I've watched or know (Dan Black.. ) but I'm also a realist.

I feel that way about Axelrod, but not about Danks. Danks has made a lot of strides and has a lot of tools. Yes, he's old, but he's done a nice job off the bench and part of me thinks we'd be pleasantly surprised if he ever became a starter.

[Chisoxfn]

I don't understand having Chris Beck waaay ahead of Heidenreich. Same age, one a second rounder, the other a fourth, Beck getting pretty much lit up at Great Falls, Heidenreich solid now at High A (combined 101 innings/3.38 ERA/.244 BAA/pitching against older players). Seems like Beck is annoited hhis status.

Beck was a consensus top 10 pick prior to bulking up and losing a bit of mobility, which cost him some velocity and ultimately his overall draft status. Lot of upside with this pick. Heiden is young, has put up good numbers, however, his overall stuff is relatively fringy. He is a lefty and he has seen some increases in velocity since joining the system (which is a plus). I tend to think FS as a whole thinks lesser of Heiden than it probably should, however, I can easily see why it is hard to get excited about him when you consider his stuff (he does possess a good sinking fastball).

[thxfrthmmrs]

My observations:

 

People keep mentioning Barnum as a 18 year old when he's actually 19 and a half and turning 20 in January. It just bothers me when people understate age.

 

I would perhaps even include Olacio in the bottom of the top 25 base on age and size alone, not to mention that his K rate is almost 1 per inning in Low A and Rookie ball as a true 18 year old starter.

 

I don't get why people have ranked Saladino as low as 17. I think a lot of people have overlooked is his home and road split. The B Ham park is more of a pitchers park, his home OPS is an atrocious .588, but his road OPS is .908! His regression in hitting is more of his inability to adjust to a pitchers park rather his regressing as a hitter overall. He's actually hitting a lot better post all star break. Hitting 16 homers in the W-S hitter friendly park is definitely unstainable for him, but I think he also sacrificed some of his power to work the count, draw walks, get on base, and utilize his speed more often. He showed major improvement in that department this year. His regression as a hitter is overblown by some folks here. The kid just turned 23, provides average defense at SS. If SS doesn't work out for him, he will definitely be adequate at 2B. A middle infielder with potential for .800 OPS and ability to steal 30 bases would rank a lot higher than 17 in a system like this.

Edited July 12, 2012 by thxfrthmmrs

[NorthSideSox72]

My observations:

 

People keep mentioning Barnum as a 18 year old when he's actually 19 and a half and turning 20 in January. It just bothers me when people understate age.

 

I would perhaps even include Olacio in the bottom of the top 25 base on age and size alone, not to mention that his K rate is almost 1 per inning in Low A and Rookie ball as a true 18 year old starter.

 

I don't get why people have ranked Saladino as low as 17. I think a lot of people have overlooked is his home and road split. The B Ham park is more of a pitchers park, his home OPS is an atrocious .588, but his road OPS is .908! His regression in hitting is more of his inability to adjust to a pitchers park rather his regressing as a hitter overall. He's actually hitting a lot better post all star break. Hitting 16 homers in the W-S hitter friendly park is definitely unstainable for him, but I think he also sacrificed some of his power to work the count, draw walks, get on base, and utilize his speed more often. He showed major improvement in that department this year. His regression as a hitter is overblown by some folks here. The kid just turned 23, provides average defense at SS. If SS doesn't work out for him, he will definitely be adequate at 2B. A middle infielder with potential for .800 OPS and ability to steal 30 bases would rank a lot higher than 17 in a system like this.

 

We've seen some negative reports on his defense, that seem to indicate he is not even average for that level and his development. Also, while being in B-Ham may take some HR's away, it should cause THAT drastic a split, which suggests something more mental. Its possible the pressure that was added last year when he became so highly touted, then had an extended look in ST, is having an effect. Also hearing rumblings of some other, unspecified issues.

 

His overall numbers are not good, but his K rate is a little lower and his walk rate is a lot higher, so those are good signs. Hopefully his strong July will continue. But having him in the teens on the list, right now, seems about right to me.

 

[danman31]

Heiden is young, has put up good numbers, however, his overall stuff is relatively fringy. He is a lefty and he has seen some increases in velocity since joining the system (which is a plus).

Heidenreich is a righty.

 

I would perhaps even include Olacio in the bottom of the top 25 base on age and size alone, not to mention that his K rate is almost 1 per inning in Low A and Rookie ball as a true 18 year old starter.

 

I don't get why people have ranked Saladino as low as 17. I think a lot of people have overlooked is his home and road split. The B Ham park is more of a pitchers park, his home OPS is an atrocious .588, but his road OPS is .908! His regression in hitting is more of his inability to adjust to a pitchers park rather his regressing as a hitter overall. He's actually hitting a lot better post all star break. Hitting 16 homers in the W-S hitter friendly park is definitely unstainable for him, but I think he also sacrificed some of his power to work the count, draw walks, get on base, and utilize his speed more often. He showed major improvement in that department this year. His regression as a hitter is overblown by some folks here. The kid just turned 23, provides average defense at SS. If SS doesn't work out for him, he will definitely be adequate at 2B. A middle infielder with potential for .800 OPS and ability to steal 30 bases would rank a lot higher than 17 in a system like this.

I agree on both Olacio and Saladino. I had Olacio in my top 20 and Saladino as the No. 6 prospect in the system. Basically what you said about Saladino is my argument for keeping him in the top ten. The only stat that is suffering is the batting average. His K rate is actually quite good. Same could be said for Andy Wilkins, but I've had a harder time sticking up for a 1B than a middle infielder.

[Chicago White Sox]

Beck was a consensus top 10 pick prior to bulking up and losing a bit of mobility, which cost him some velocity and ultimately his overall draft status. Lot of upside with this pick. Heiden is young, has put up good numbers, however, his overall stuff is relatively fringy. He is a lefty and he has seen some increases in velocity since joining the system (which is a plus). I tend to think FS as a whole thinks lesser of Heiden than it probably should, however, I can easily see why it is hard to get excited about him when you consider his stuff (he does possess a good sinking fastball).

Heidenreich is a righty.

[ILMOU]

We've seen some negative reports on his defense, that seem to indicate he is not even average for that level and his development. Also, while being in B-Ham may take some HR's away, it should cause THAT drastic a split, which suggests something more mental. Its possible the pressure that was added last year when he became so highly touted, then had an extended look in ST, is having an effect. Also hearing rumblings of some other, unspecified issues.

 

His overall numbers are not good, but his K rate is a little lower and his walk rate is a lot higher, so those are good signs. Hopefully his strong July will continue. But having him in the teens on the list, right now, seems about right to me.

 

Can't let this slide by without asking. ???

[Balta1701]

Can't let this slide by without asking. ???

All I got is that when the Barons visited Tennessee mid June, as far as I could tell he was benched the whole time with no injury statements.

[ILMOU]

All I got is that when the Barons visited Tennessee mid June, as far as I could tell he was benched the whole time with no injury statements.

 

Thanks.

[thxfrthmmrs]

We've seen some negative reports on his defense, that seem to indicate he is not even average for that level and his development. Also, while being in B-Ham may take some HR's away, it should cause THAT drastic a split, which suggests something more mental. Its possible the pressure that was added last year when he became so highly touted, then had an extended look in ST, is having an effect. Also hearing rumblings of some other, unspecified issues.

 

His overall numbers are not good, but his K rate is a little lower and his walk rate is a lot higher, so those are good signs. Hopefully his strong July will continue. But having him in the teens on the list, right now, seems about right to me.

 

I would like to hear some specifics about those reports.

 

Coming out of college, he's known to have a pretty good glove and was a good bet to stay at short. Even as recent as last season, I heard his defense was adequate. Most players move to third base from short either because he outgrew the position or they lack the range or quickness. I don't think either scenario applies to him. If they feel that he doesn't have a strong enough arm for short, given his size and quickness, he will be experimented at second base before moving to third, which still makes him an intriguing prospect.

 

The reason I would place him in the top 10 is that he has a higher ceiling and floor than most of the guys in top 15. I would even argue that he has a higher floor than guys like Mitchell and Thompson because they are still figuring out how to make contact with the ball.

 

Without any solid evidence on his inability to stay at short, dropping him 12 spots on the list, given his improvements in several major areas, is too much.

[Balta1701]

Without any solid evidence on his inability to stay at short, dropping him 12 spots on the list, given his improvements in several major areas, is too much.

His move downwards also reflects other guys moving upwards and other guys being drafted too, don't forget.

[caulfield12]

I would like to hear some specifics about those reports.

 

Coming out of college, he's known to have a pretty good glove and was a good bet to stay at short. Even as recent as last season, I heard his defense was adequate. Most players move to third base from short either because he outgrew the position or they lack the range or quickness. I don't think either scenario applies to him. If they feel that he doesn't have a strong enough arm for short, given his size and quickness, he will be experimented at second base before moving to third, which still makes him an intriguing prospect.

 

The reason I would place him in the top 10 is that he has a higher ceiling and floor than most of the guys in top 15. I would even argue that he has a higher floor than guys like Mitchell and Thompson because they are still figuring out how to make contact with the ball.

 

Without any solid evidence on his inability to stay at short, dropping him 12 spots on the list, given his improvements in several major areas, is too much.

 

 

Despite Mitchell's slump, he's beating him (Saladino) pretty handily on the OPS front playing in the same home stadium.

 

Mitchell's just a much more dynamic and exciting player. 8 homers, all those triples, the increased walk totals....he's getting there, or at least making progress.

 

 

Let's say Saladino is an "average" 2B defensively. That means he needs to put up a 700 - 725 OPS not to be hurting the Sox at that position. He has a chance, but nothing this year would cause one to reach the conclusion that it's a foregone conclusion he's going to put up those numbers.

 

Will he be better than Escobar? Probably. But a starter? Maybe not.

 

 

 

 

[The 815]

Stuff-wise, whats the difference between Pedro Hernandez and Matthew Heidenreich? Both seem to be similar control type pitchers with Heide having a slightly better k/9 and h/9 while Hernandez has given up fewer home runs.

[danman31]

Stuff-wise, whats the difference between Pedro Hernandez and Matthew Heidenreich? Both seem to be similar control type pitchers with Heide having a slightly better k/9 and h/9 while Hernandez has given up fewer home runs.

Hernandez has struck out more guys in previous years. He struck out 43 in 41.1 IP in AA last year. Plus there's an assumption that the K numbers drop a notable amount for Heidenreich when he gets to AA since it does for most pitchers, especially ones with lower K rates.

[thxfrthmmrs]

Despite Mitchell's slump, he's beating him (Saladino) pretty handily on the OPS front playing in the same home stadium.

 

Mitchell's just a much more dynamic and exciting player. 8 homers, all those triples, the increased walk totals....he's getting there, or at least making progress.

 

 

Let's say Saladino is an "average" 2B defensively. That means he needs to put up a 700 - 725 OPS not to be hurting the Sox at that position. He has a chance, but nothing this year would cause one to reach the conclusion that it's a foregone conclusion he's going to put up those numbers.

 

Will he be better than Escobar? Probably. But a starter? Maybe not.

 

 

When you have a three month slump, then it's not really a slump, it's more so that he's not polished enough to hit the pitching. Have you looked at his BA for the past three months? He's hit .220, .210, then .150 the past three months while striking out 85 times in 215 ABs. He had only have ONE good months the past two years, that was this April, but he's reverted back to his old self again, albeit showing some improvements in walks and power.

 

His ceiling was once absurdly high, and is still pretty high right now, but chances of him reaching the ceiling is very slim now. Mitchell at his floor will not make it too the majors. Saladino might not have a ceiling as high as Mitchell, but his floor seems to be a utility player at the majors, which is what I was saying. I don't know what you are trying say from all those rambling.

[thxfrthmmrs]

His move downwards also reflects other guys moving upwards and other guys being drafted too, don't forget.

 

I am well aware of that. Personally, I would have him dropping several spots from the 4 or 5 spot he was at during the preseason, but not out of the top 10

[danman31]

I don't think I agree that Saladino's floor is that high. What makes you think he's a lock to make the Majors?

[caulfield12]

When you have a three month slump, then it's not really a slump, it's more so that he's not polished enough to hit the pitching. Have you looked at his BA for the past three months? He's hit .220, .210, then .150 the past three months while striking out 85 times in 215 ABs. He had only have ONE good months the past two years, that was this April, but he's reverted back to his old self again, albeit showing some improvements in walks and power.

 

His ceiling was once absurdly high, and is still pretty high right now, but chances of him reaching the ceiling is very slim now. Mitchell at his floor will not make it too the majors. Saladino might not have a ceiling as high as Mitchell, but his floor seems to be a utility player at the majors, which is what I was saying. I don't know what you are trying say from all those rambling.

 

 

We could make the same argument about Dayan Viciedo's season as well.

 

Very inconsistent.

 

Some improvements? I would say they're pretty incredible improvements if he's still sporting an OPS over 800 at this point. And a LOT of that is due to his propensity to walk this year, vis a vis 2011.

 

Mitchell will make it to the majors EASILY if Jordan Danks did. If for no other reason than in 2015, we'll be without Rios and Dunn, and probably Konerko as well.

You'd like to think that DeAza will play forever, but you never know when a player could suffer a major injury.

 

Utility player in the majors isn't worth much....any more than Lillibridge, Hudson or Escobar.

 

We can't write off Mitchell yet and say he couldn't be a productive leadoff or 9 hole hitter. He could play LF, CF and DH at the big league level. Wait until you see what he does for a year or two in AAA before you jump to those conclusions, in a much smaller stadium that's more similar to Chicago than Birmingham is.

 

The other thing you have to consider is that other managers and peers consider him a true prospect, or they wouldn't have rewarded him with a trip to the All-Star game for the Southern League. That's telling, too.

 

And he's got 49 RBI's, which is very very impressive considering where he's hit in the line-up.

Edited July 12, 2012 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

Micah Johnson's another name to watch.

 

Exciting player...hopefully ends up better than Shelby, Jr., Harris or Richar

[Quin]

Man, what happened to Bellamy and Infante?

 

(I know that they're still in the system, but what caused to to fall so much?)

[NorthSideSox72]

Man, what happened to Bellamy and Infante?

 

(I know that they're still in the system, but what caused to to fall so much?)

Infante just hasn't been that good at the upper levels, and hasn't added much to his tool box other than velocity. Bellamy had surgery and missed some time, now he's back, so I wouldn't count him out just yet.

 

[Balta1701]

Infante just hasn't been that good at the upper levels, and hasn't added much to his tool box other than velocity. Bellamy had surgery and missed some time, now he's back, so I wouldn't count him out just yet.

Here's the other problem with Infante:

 

K/9:

2010 (BHam): 11.6

2011 (BHam): 8.2

2011 (Charlotte): 7.4

2012 (Charlotte): 5.6

 

That's not just "hasn't been that good at the upper levels", that's having your performance fall off a cliff. Always had something of a high walk rate, that hasn't changed, but when your strikeout rate falls in 1/2, your performance will go down.

 

I'd guess there has to be a velocity dip in there somehow, or something mechanical, to drop a strikeout rate that badly.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Micah Johnson's another name to watch.

 

Exciting player...hopefully ends up better than Shelby, Jr., Harris or Richar

 

Why are you comparing him to any of those three?