The Wild Card Division

[flavum]

I'm going to make this plain...the Tigers are going to be the better team the rest of the season. The three best teams in the AL are the Yankees, Rangers, and Tigers, and that won't change.

 

That said, the White Sox are sitting pretty in their other division...the Wild Card Division. There are eight teams in this division---Angels, A's, Orioles, White Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Indians. All of these teams are within 4 games of each other, with 66 or 67 games left each. The top 2 teams in this division get to play each other to make the playoffs on October 5.

 

Now to the breakdown of each of these teams schedules for the rest of the season...

 

To be brief, let's lump the Yankees, Rangers, and Tigers together. (Top)

Let's also lump the Twins, Royals, and Mariners together. (Bottom)

And then the rest...head-to-head among the 8 teams in contention for these 2 spots. (HTH)

 

(Home-Away-Total)

 

Angels (35-31-66):

Top: 6-10-16

Bottom: 9-9-18

HTH: 20-12-32

 

A's (31-36-67):

Top: 3-10-13

Bottom: 6-6-12

HTH: 22-20-42

 

Orioles (36-31-67):

Top: 4-12-16

Bottom: 7-3-10

HTH: 25-16-41

 

White Sox (35-32-67):

Top: 7-6-13

Bottom: 15-12-27

HTH: 13-14-27

 

Rays (28-38-66):

Top: 6-6-12

Bottom: 3-6-9

HTH: 19-26-45

 

Blue Jays (36-31-67):

Top: 12-9-21

Bottom: 6-3-9

HTH: 18-19-37

 

Red Sox (28-38-66):

Top: 9-12-21

Bottom: 8-3-11

HTH: 11-23-34

 

Indians (33-34-67):

Top: 12-9-21

Bottom: 9-16-25

HTH: 12-9-21

 

Just looking at this, the Sox are in good position playing the worst teams the most, and the best teams only 13 games.

 

The Rays only have 6 left with NY and 6 left with the Rangers....they can play their way back into it, but they have a ton on the road.

 

The A's have been pulling games out at the end, and I don't see that continuing for the next 10 weeks.

 

The Orioles, I expect to hit the skids, but who knows.

 

The Red Sox are getting offensive players back, but will the pitching ever hit a groove?

 

The Angels are a good team, and they'll be there at the end.

 

The Indians are under .500, and I hesitated even including them. Same with the Blue Jays who have injury problems.

 

I hope this makes you feel better about the Sox chances. The 67-Game sprint begins tomorrow. I think if the Sox can go 39-28, they'll make it to the extra game.

Edited July 23, 2012 by flavum

[justBLAZE]

I'm not worried about Indians and AL East teams will stay average because of tough divison (hard to go on a run there, it's been the case all year besides the Yankees).

 

Angels and A's have been hot but I think we play those guys at home as well.

[claydude14]

I think the Wild Card division will come down to us and the Angels. Red Sox and Rays have it tougher playing in the East, but they could certainly be in play for the cards too.

[SOXOBAMA]

Sox will win the AL Central.

[Knackattack]

Yeah I don't see the Tigers sustaining this level of play TBH, and if Danks returns/Kenny acquires another starter, I think we will come roaring back.

[mgaughan09]

Sox will win the AL Central.

 

[Jake]

Sox will win the AL Central.

 

[Rowand44]

Sox will win the AL Central.

 

[flavum]

39-28 the rest of the season starts tonight.

 

vs Min 2-1

at Tex 1-2

at Min 2-1

vs LAA 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Oak 2-1

at Tor 2-2

at KC 2-1

vs NY 2-1

vs Sea 2-1

at Bal 2-2

at Det 1-2

vs Min 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Det 2-2

at Min 2-1

at KC 2-1

at LAA 1-2

vs Cle 2-1

vs TB 2-2

at Cle 2-1

[caulfield12]

39-28 the rest of the season starts tonight.

 

vs Min 2-1

at Tex 1-2

at Min 2-1

vs LAA 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Oak 2-1

at Tor 2-2

at KC 2-1

vs NY 2-1

vs Sea 2-1

at Bal 2-2

at Det 1-2

vs Min 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Det 2-2

at Min 2-1

at KC 2-1

at LAA 1-2

vs Cle 2-1

vs TB 2-2

at Cle 2-1

 

The question is does 88-74 get the 2nd wild card? 75% chance, probably.

[flavum]

The question is does 88-74 get the 2nd wild card? 75% chance, probably.

 

39-28 would get the sox to 89 wins, which historically is the average 2nd wildcard number.

 

What these teams would have to do to get to 89:

 

Bal 51-44 (38-29)

Oak 51-44 (38-29)

Sox 50-45 (39-28)

TB 49-47 (40-26)

Tor 48-47 (41-26)

Bos 48-48 (41-25)

Cle 47-48 (42-25)

 

I'm thinking the Angels are going to separate themselves a little, and probably get to 90-92 wins.

 

These remaining teams...it may only take 87 or 88.

Edited July 23, 2012 by flavum

[caulfield12]

39-28 would get the sox to 89 wins, which historically is the average 2nd wildcard number.

 

What these teams would have to do to get to 89:

 

Bal 51-44 (38-29)

Oak 51-44 (38-29)

Sox 50-45 (39-28)

TB 49-47 (40-26)

Tor 48-47 (41-26)

Bos 48-48 (41-25)

Cle 47-48 (42-25)

 

I'm thinking the Angels are going to separate themselves a little, and probably get to 90-92 wins.

 

These remaining teams...it may only take 87 or 88.

 

Pretty amazing Oakland's in there, with all the players they've dumped like Gio.

 

Cespedes and Reddick (especially) were huge finds, if they can keep both of them healthy for the rest of the season.

[flavum]

7/23 - 10/3

 

vs Min 2-1 (3-0) +1

at Tex 1-2

at Min 2-1

vs LAA 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Oak 2-1

at Tor 2-2

at KC 2-1

vs NY 2-1

vs Sea 2-1

at Bal 2-2

at Det 1-2

vs Min 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Det 2-2

at Min 2-1

at KC 2-1

at LAA 1-2

vs Cle 2-1

vs TB 2-2

at Cle 2-1

39-28

[flavum]

10 weeks left:

 

A's would be hosting the Angels.

 

Oak 53 44 -

LAA 54 45 -

Det/

Sox 53 45 0.5

Bal 51 47 2.5

TB 51 47 2.5

Cle 49 49 4.5

Bos 49 50 5.0

Tor 48 49 5.0

 

We're getting some separation.

[cabiness42]

Yankees and Rangers are locks. It's going to come down to the Sox, Tigers, Angels, and A's for three spots. Sox and Tigers have the advantage of two terrible teams in their division while the Angels and A's only have one.

 

Of course, the Red Sox finishing 5th in the WC standings will prompt MLB to expand to 5 WC teams per league in 2013.

[caulfield12]

Break up the A's!!!

 

Sets up an interesting mid-August home series against them.

 

Former White Sox prospect Chris Carter just his his 6th home for them in less than 50 AB's.

 

Baltimore does seem to be fading....but we should never ever count the Rays out. They're like the Twins of the last decade in terms of their resiliency.

 

 

[justBLAZE]

Break up the A's!!!

 

Sets up an interesting mid-August home series against them.

 

Former White Sox prospect Chris Carter just his his 6th home for them in less than 50 AB's.

 

Baltimore does seem to be fading....but we should never ever count the Rays out. They're like the Twins of the last decade in terms of their resiliency.

 

A's are at their peak right now, bound to cool off.

[flavum]

What's up with the A's?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/wildcard.jsp?ymd=20120728

[flavum]

7/23 - 10/3- to win 89 games

 

vs Min 2-1 (3-0) +1

at Tex 1-2 (2-1) +2

at Min 2-1 (2-1) +2

vs LAA 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Oak 2-1

at Tor 2-2

at KC 2-1

vs NY 2-1

vs Sea 2-1

at Bal 2-2

at Det 1-2

vs Min 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Det 2-2

at Min 2-1

at KC 2-1

at LAA 1-2

vs Cle 2-1

vs TB 2-2

at Cle 2-1

39-28

Edited August 1, 2012 by flavum

[justBLAZE]

7/23 - 10/3- to win 89 games

 

vs Min 2-1 (3-0) +1

at Tex 1-2 (2-1) +2

at Min 2-1 (2-1) +2

vs LAA 2-1 (2-1) +2

vs KC 2-1

vs Oak 2-1

at Tor 2-2

at KC 2-1

vs NY 2-1

vs Sea 2-1

at Bal 2-2

at Det 1-2

vs Min 2-1

vs KC 2-1

vs Det 2-2

at Min 2-1

at KC 2-1

at LAA 1-2

vs Cle 2-1

vs TB 2-2

at Cle 2-1

39-28

[scenario]

Cleveland was 3.5 games out on July 26th...

 

They are 9.5 games out as of today (August 5th).

 

 

[flavum]

I'm bumping that 89 for the second wild card up to 90.

 

I think the Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, and Yankees will all win over 90 games.

[Greg Hibbard]

I'm bumping that 89 for the second wild card up to 90.

 

I think the Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, and Yankees will all win over 90 games.

 

Why do you think the Angels win 90? They've been 9-12 since the break - and they have a brutal last 6 weeks of their schedule. I can't see them going 11 over down that stretch.

 

Every series is either on the road or at home vs. a contender from late August on, except for 1 september series against SEA.

Edited August 7, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[BFirebird]

I'm bumping that 89 for the second wild card up to 90.

 

I think the Sox, Tigers, Angels, Rangers, and Yankees will all win over 90 games.

If that happens..there are your 5 playoff teams. Lets just hope we at least finish 1 ahead of Det so we don't have to play the extra game.

[flavum]

Why do you think the Angels win 90? They've been 9-12 since the break - and they have a brutal last 6 weeks of their schedule. I can't see them going 11 over down that stretch.

 

Every series is either on the road or at home vs. a contender from late August on, except for 1 september series against SEA.

 

I hear you, and maybe the Rays and Angels only end up with 88-89 wins. I just think with that starting pitching, the Angels are eventually going to peel off a 16-4 stretch.

 

As far as the Sox, I just want them to get to 91 wins. If they win the division, great. If that's not enough for the division, then tip your cap to the Tigers.