King Felix to the Sox??

[SOXOBAMA]

The signing of Cole Hamels on Wednesday to a six-year, $144-million contract was great news for Phillies fans. But for Mariners fans, it was an ominous development.

 

Not that anyone thought locking up Felix Hernandez was going to be cheap. Not when in April, the Giants' Matt Cain signed an extension for six years and $127 million. But the Hamels' signing is just another reminder of what sort of commitment -- financial, and in years -- it's going to take for whomever winds up signing Hernandez to his next deal. Because here's the bottom line: Hernandez is arguably better than both those pitchers, not to mention almost every other one in MLB. And in 2015, when he starts his next deal, Hernandez will turn 29 in April -- the same age Hamels will be next year when his deal kicks in.

 

Right now, of course, there is considerable debate over whether the Mariners should trade Hernandez, perhaps as soon as next week's non-waiver deadline. But perhaps the more pertinent debate is whether it would be wise for the Mariners to give Hernandez the contract he has coming to him, by virtue of established industry standards and his own body of work. Because, obviously, the two debates are intertwined. If the Mariners conclude, for whatever reason, that they can't, or won't, re-sign Felix, then it would be incumbent upon them to pursue a trade

 

Mariners are paying Hernandez $18.5 million, and until Monday, were paying Ichiro $17 million. That's $35.5 million out of a total payroll of about $84 million -- 42 percent. History has shown that devoting that much to one or two players is not conducive to building a winning team. But to bring Felix back would likely require, based on the progression of salaries we've seen given to elite pitchers -- Hamels' being the latest example -- a deal that averages at least $25 million a season, almost certainly for at least six years.

 

Would that be wise for a team like the Mariner, who unlike the Yankees or Red Sox, can't afford a whiff on a contract that large? As great as Hernandez has been and continues to be, he has been a workhorse in his six-plus seasons. That's part of what makes him great. But you also have to wonder how much of a toll all those 200-innings seasons will take on his arm. Already this year, we've seen decreased velocity, though it hasn't seemed to affect his performance. But those are legitimate questions to ask as you ponder whether to give out an astronomical contract. And they are questions that have to be answered soon, because with Hernandez's current deal ending after the 2014 season, the time to begin negotiations on an extension -- or ponder the dreaded trade -- are rapidly approaching.

 

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The signing of Cole Hamels on Wednesday to a six-year, $144-million contract was great news for Phillies fans. But for Mariners fans, it was an ominous development.

 

Not that anyone thought locking up Felix Hernandez was going to be cheap. Not when in April, the Giants' Matt Cain signed an extension for six years and $127 million. But the Hamels' signing is just another reminder of what sort of commitment -- financial, and in years -- it's going to take for whomever winds up signing Hernandez to his next deal. Because here's the bottom line: Hernandez is arguably better than both those pitchers, not to mention almost every other one in MLB. And in 2015, when he starts his next deal, Hernandez will turn 29 in April -- the same age Hamels will be next year when his deal kicks in.

 

Right now, of course, there is considerable debate over whether the Mariners should trade Hernandez, perhaps as soon as next week's non-waiver deadline. But perhaps the more pertinent debate is whether it would be wise for the Mariners to give Hernandez the contract he has coming to him, by virtue of established industry standards and his own body of work. Because, obviously, the two debates are intertwined. If the Mariners conclude, for whatever reason, that they can't, or won't, re-sign Felix, then it would be incumbent upon them to pursue a trade

 

Mariners are paying Hernandez $18.5 million, and until Monday, were paying Ichiro $17 million. That's $35.5 million out of a total payroll of about $84 million -- 42 percent. History has shown that devoting that much to one or two players is not conducive to building a winning team. But to bring Felix back would likely require, based on the progression of salaries we've seen given to elite pitchers -- Hamels' being the latest example -- a deal that averages at least $25 million a season, almost certainly for at least six years.

 

Would that be wise for a team like the Mariner, who unlike the Yankees or Red Sox, can't afford a whiff on a contract that large? As great as Hernandez has been and continues to be, he has been a workhorse in his six-plus seasons. That's part of what makes him great. But you also have to wonder how much of a toll all those 200-innings seasons will take on his arm. Already this year, we've seen decreased velocity, though it hasn't seemed to affect his performance. But those are legitimate questions to ask as you ponder whether to give out an astronomical contract. And they are questions that have to be answered soon, because with Hernandez's current deal ending after the 2014 season, the time to begin negotiations on an extension -- or ponder the dreaded trade -- are rapidly approaching.

 

Please provide links/cites for external material.

 

[Jake]

Can't give up both Quintana and Viciedo.

 

 

Quintana, ADA, Beckham, Mitchell. Go.

[scenario]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/theh...ifications.html

 

[fathom]

Can't give up both Quintana and Viciedo.

 

 

Quintana, ADA, Beckham, Mitchell. Go.

 

For Felix? Not a chance in hell would Seattle do that.

[WHarris1]

I would gladly include both Viciedo and Quintana, and anything the hell else they want.

[Jake]

For Felix? Not a chance in hell would Seattle do that.

 

Remember we're saving them 45+ million dollars too.

[fathom]

I would gladly include both Viciedo and Quintana, and anything the hell else they want.

 

If the Sox wanted Felix Hernandez, it would probably have to be a deal involving Sale and Viciedo.

[Jake]

I would gladly include both Viciedo and Quintana, and anything the hell else they want.

 

You just have to think about winning this year and how hard that may be if JorDanks plays left and only drives in 15-20 runs the remainder of the season.

[Andy the Clown]

This thread is dumb. Felix isn't going anywhere.

 

Even if he was, most other teams would be able to offer more than the White Sox.

 

Sometimes KW can work magic, but he's not divine.

[Jake]

If the Sox wanted Felix Hernandez, it would probably have to be a deal involving Sale and Viciedo.

 

Sale for Felix would be a huge loss for the Sox.

 

You'd get far more in return for Sale than Felix with all that money owed.

[fathom]

Remember we're saving them 45+ million dollars too.

 

And so would any of the other teams that could offer them significantly better prospects/young MLB talent than what the Sox could. Just like with the Greinke deal I commented on earlier, could you imagine what the reaction on here would be if KW traded the best pitcher in baseball for two guys that were minor league free agents, a 2nd baseman that's been a bust and a non-top 100 outfield prospect?

[fathom]

You'd get far more in return for Sale than Felix with all that money owed.

 

I couldn't disagree more. It's not like Felix is signed to a bad contract, and with Sale's stamina/injury/longevity concerns, I'd be stunned if Felix didn't have significantly more trade value.

[Jake]

And so would any of the other teams that could offer them significantly better prospects/young MLB talent than what the Sox could. Just like with the Greinke deal I commented on earlier, could you imagine what the reaction on here would be if KW traded the best pitcher in baseball for two guys that were minor league free agents, a 2nd baseman that's been a bust and a non-top 100 outfield prospect?

 

Greinke is worth very little to them at this point. The goal is getting a return better than a draft pick. Many of our proposed deals are a ton better than the odds on a comp round pick. The other bidders are also wary of the value of 10 starts from any pitcher.

[southsider2k5]

Can't give up both Quintana and Viciedo.

 

 

Quintana, ADA, Beckham, Mitchell. Go.

 

If that package were good enough to get Felix, there would be plenty of teams who would beat it.

[southsider2k5]

I couldn't disagree more. It's not like Felix is signed to a bad contract, and with Sale's stamina/injury/longevity concerns, I'd be stunned if Felix didn't have significantly more trade value.

 

In this day and age, that contract is an asset, not a detriment. He is probably underpaid by at least $10 million a year based on what other guys are getting.

[Chicago White Sox]

In this day and age, that contract is an asset, not a detriment. He is probably underpaid by at least $10 million a year based on what other guys are getting.

If Hernandez is underpaid by $10 million, then Sale is underpaid by $28 million.

 

The fact is Hernandez makes $18 million more than Sale. I don't care about the injury conerns, four years of Sale at a fraction of the cost is worth a lot more than Hernandez's two years of control.

[southsider2k5]

If Hernandez is underpaid by $10 million, then Sale is underpaid by $28 million.

 

The fact is Hernandez makes $18 million more than Sale. I don't care about the injury conerns, four years of Sale at a fraction of the cost is worth a lot more than Hernandez's two years of control.

 

If Chris Sale were on the open market right now, I shutter to think at what teams would be willing to pay him.

[Jake]

So now Felix Hernandez is a $30M/year pitcher. Say what you want about the fairness of the contract, but very few teams can stand to simply add that much to their payroll for any reason.

[Kyyle23]

If Chris Sale were on the open market right now, I shutter to think at what teams would be willing to pay him.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

If KW was willing to trade Sale right now for prospects, the White Sox minor league system wouldn't be ranked near the bottom anymore.

[Wanne]

I predicted long ago that we'd wind up with Vargas.

 

He's definitely one of the guys I thought of early on in the process of who could be had. That's just waaaaay too much quiche and what to give up of Hernandez.

[southsider2k5]

So now Felix Hernandez is a $30M/year pitcher. Say what you want about the fairness of the contract, but very few teams can stand to simply add that much to their payroll for any reason.

 

If Cole Hamels is $24 million pitcher, while not even on the open market, Felix has to be worth millions a year more.

[southsider2k5]

 

Far right.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Vargas + League is a nice package regardless of what happens with the pursuit of an ace. 3? years team control of Humber has to be at least somewhat appealing for Z in Seattle, provided a couple nice prospects finished out the package. Humber is a change of scenery guy who could maybe get his confidence back by returning to a low expectation, non-contending situation and doing so in a pitcher's park. Humber + Mitchell/Thompson is a potentially great deal for Seattle given that the players they would be acquiring have higher ceilings than the players they'd be trading and also would be controllable for longer. And if it's me I'd throw in a lil extra to just to keep Mitchell and ditch Joe Borchard Jr.