Peavy's future here

[LittleHurt05]

Even if 25 is an arbitrary number, Sale's going to throw close to 100 more innings this year than last year. Sale will be at the top of that list.

 

Sale's body size & throwing motion are worrisome, but CJ Wilson improved after an increase that big, so it doesn't have to go badly.

[Balta1701]

Sale's body size & throwing motion are worrisome, but CJ Wilson improved after an increase that big, so it doesn't have to go badly.

Oh I know it doesn't "Have" to go badly...in fact I think my original point was that if Sale was already stretched out he could be even more dominant than he's been this year, but I can't say that without the caveat of "100 inning boost" thrown in, because it's true.

[Lillian]

Here's the problem...unless Sale hits the DL with a serious problem before the end of this year, you cannot spend $10-$20 million on a 6th starter as "Insurance" for him. You're not going to give Peavy $18 million to be insurance for Sale and then consign yourself to putting Gavin Floyd in the bullpen in case Sale gets hurt (or in case Danks can't come back despite what doctors say).

 

If you're signing Peavy, it's because you think it's a good investment of resources, not to cover yourself in case Sale can't go.

 

Apparently you misunderstood my previous post. My point about Sale's durability had nothing to do with Peavy. I think Peavy would be a good risk on the one year option, for the marginal difference of $18 million over the buy out. I was talking about what to do with Sale, if he can't remain a starter. The two topics were not really directly related

[caulfield12]

We also can't be 100% sure about Quintana sticking long-term, because we would have said the same about Humber being a cost-controlled part of the rotation for the next 3-4 years and now, not so much.

 

Whether he's a one-year wonder or not, we'll find out soon enough...plus he's going to be in that Verducci effect territory as well.

 

1. Sale

2. Liriano

3. Peavy

4. Floyd/Danks

5. Quintana

6. Humber

 

The way I look at it, if you ranked them in order by "ace" potential, then it would go something like this. The key is we already know the limitations of Floyd working with Cooper, but the Liriano/Coop partnership is an unknown.

 

If any of you would feel more comfortable, for instance, with Floyd or Quintana, going Friday night against Greinke instead of Liriano...well, everyone has their opinions.

 

But if Liriano can master that change, he has the 92-96 MPH fastball (might actually throw a tick or two harder than Sale as a starter) and the slider, which doesn't have to be (and can't ever be again) the 2006 slider that ripped his elbow apart because of the torque of 89-91 MPH on that pitch tearing ligaments from bone.

 

The Twins called him "The Franchise" for a reason, that was his nickname.

 

Plus, the synergy of having Liriano, Sale, Quintana, Danks...working together and teaching/coaching each other, it's reminiscent of when Buehrle was around to tutor Danks...and makes us miss Mark being around to help Quintana and Sale and even Francisco. Of course, if Mark was around, that would mean Danks wouldn't be.

 

[Melissa1334]

We also can't be 100% sure about Quintana sticking long-term, because we would have said the same about Humber being a cost-controlled part of the rotation for the next 3-4 years and now, not so much.

 

Whether he's a one-year wonder or not, we'll find out soon enough...plus he's going to be in that Verducci effect territory as well.

 

1. Sale

2. Liriano

3. Peavy

4. Floyd/Danks

5. Quintana

6. Humber

 

The way I look at it, if you ranked them in order by "ace" potential, then it would go something like this. The key is we already know the limitations of Floyd working with Cooper, but the Liriano/Coop partnership is an unknown.

 

If any of you would feel more comfortable, for instance, with Floyd or Quintana, going Friday night against Greinke instead of Liriano...well, everyone has their opinions.

 

But if Liriano can master that change, he has the 92-96 MPH fastball (might actually throw a tick or two harder than Sale as a starter) and the slider, which doesn't have to be (and can't ever be again) the 2006 slider that ripped his elbow apart because of the torque of 89-91 MPH on that pitch tearing ligaments from bone.

 

The Twins called him "The Franchise" for a reason, that was his nickname.

 

Plus, the synergy of having Liriano, Sale, Quintana, Danks...working together and teaching/coaching each other, it's reminiscent of when Buehrle was around to tutor Danks...and makes us miss Mark being around to help Quintana and Sale and even Francisco. Of course, if Mark was around, that would mean Danks wouldn't be.

i agree with you.we have to see how peavy, liriano and quintana perform the rest of the way. same with youk. im not ready to just hand him 2,3 years at about 10per either

[elrockinMT]

I can't imagine any team giving him $22M to pick up next year, but if he is willing to negotiate I think the Sox and Peavy are a good fit

[iamshack]

So, do you pay for performance or do you pay even more for potential?

 

If Liriano comes out and continues walking 5 per 9 IP the rest of the year, you can say all the same things about "perhaps Coop will help him", but we're still right there with that same question.

Let's just see what Cooper can do with him.

 

Coop has had 4.5 years with Floyd and his problems still persist. Has he made a huge jump from where he was in Philly? Of course.

 

Liriano, on the other hand, is coming to us in a much better spot than Floyd, so perhaps the incremental change Cooper can make on him will put him at a spot where he is pitching much better than Floyd is.

 

I certainly believe he will.

[GreatScott82]

obviously we have to see how liriano pitches the rest of the way but if he does well, i rather have liriano. i dont really like our chances with floyd against a big time starter like weaver,verlander,etc but liriano can shut down any lineup and id take my chances with him. but it is a tough decision with the 4 lefties though

Makes me wonder if KW will use one of those lefties in a trade to acquire a right handed ACE. If Quintana can finish the year strong, there will be a lot of teams salivating for his services this winter. It appears to be me that Seattle is going into a solid rebuilding mode, King Felix has 2 years left on his contract after this year..... (I love Quintana and think he has a BRIGHT future, but for the King- i'd gladly say goodbye!)

 

My ideal offseason:

Let Floyd walk, Let Peavy walk. Re-sign Liriano to a 2 year deal w/ a 3rd year option. Trade Quintana, Reed and prospects for King Felix.

 

Rotation:

Sale

King Felix

Danks

Liriano

Humber/ Axelrod/ Castro to battle it out in ST 2013

 

I wouldn't mind keeping Jake after what he has done for the team this year, but the guy is still an injury risk. Now if he would give the Sox a discount for maybe 9-10 mill/ season for 2-3 years, i'd say go for it. If thats the case than i would not mind seeing both Liriano and Floyd go. I'd still make that King Felix deal though

[Melissa1334]

Makes me wonder if KW will use one of those lefties in a trade to acquire a right handed ACE. If Quintana can finish the year strong, there will be a lot of teams salivating for his services this winter. It appears to be me that Seattle is going into a solid rebuilding mode, King Felix has 2 years left on his contract after this year..... (I love Quintana and think he has a BRIGHT future, but for the King- i'd gladly say goodbye!)

 

My ideal offseason:

Let Floyd walk, Let Peavy walk. Re-sign Liriano to a 2 year deal w/ a 3rd year option. Trade Quintana, Reed and prospects for King Felix.

 

Rotation:

Sale

King Felix

Danks

Liriano

Humber/ Axelrod/ Castro to battle it out in ST 2013

 

I wouldn't mind keeping Jake after what he has done for the team this year, but the guy is still an injury risk. Now if he would give the Sox a discount for maybe 9-10 mill/ season for 2-3 years, i'd say go for it. If thats the case than i would not mind seeing both Liriano and Floyd go. I'd still make that King Felix deal though

could they exercise floyds option and then trade him? if so, that would make more sense. he still has value since he pitches 200+ innings every year, im sure they could probably get something for him

[Lillian]

Gavin Floyd's mechanical issues are just maddening. How does a guy who has been pitching all of his life, frequently forget how to throw?

If he were injured, or had a little problem with control, that would be understandable, but his inability to remember to stay back, or "closed" as Cooper would say, must be very perplexing to the coaching staff.

[cabiness42]

could they exercise floyds option and then trade him? if so, that would make more sense. he still has value since he pitches 200+ innings every year, im sure they could probably get something for him

 

Yes, barring injury, it's a foregone conclusion that the Sox will pick up Floyd's option, regardless of whether they keep him or trade him.

 

[LittleHurt05]

My ideal offseason:

Let Floyd walk, Let Peavy walk. Re-sign Liriano to a 2 year deal w/ a 3rd year option. Trade Quintana, Reed and prospects for King Felix.

 

What prospects? I think Seattle is way more interested in hitters than pitching.

[cabiness42]

The good thing for the Sox is that they have 3 more months to evaluate the performance and health of the pitchers before making any decisions, but as of right now, my confidence level in their 2013 performance is in this order:

 

1) Peavy

2) Sale

3) Liriano

4) Quintana

5) Floyd

6) Danks

7) Humber

 

Sale and Quintana figure to get spots because they are cheap. Danks gets a spot if healthy because nobody is taking his contract plus he can block trades to 6 teams. That leaves two slots open among Peavy/Liriano/Floyd. However, if Humber has a great end to this season, he probably bumps his way into one of those spots due to cost. I think in any case Floyd is probably the odd man out, and it comes down to how much more the Sox like Peavy over Liriano and how much each of them would cost.

[Melissa1334]

What prospects? I think Seattle is way more interested in hitters than pitching.

i think people are overvaluing Q (right now). hes still a question mark and the mariners would ask for sale, viciedo,reed+ of course the sox dont make that trade but thats what it would take imo

[ewokpelts]

considering that the sox are contending, but the pitching staff has question marks for 2013(will danks be 100%, will sale and quintana be overworked and regress, ect), i see kenny picking up jake's option. but i dont see them giving jake a long term deal, especially at the $ he's earning now

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Absolutely do NOT pick up that option, and hope he will sign a team-friendly 3 yr/$36 deal because he feels bad about never being healthy while with us.

[Balta1701]

Absolutely do NOT pick up that option, and hope he will sign a team-friendly 3 yr/$36 deal because he feels bad about never being healthy while with us.

Is 3/$36 really that "Team friendly"?

 

If you go to the fangraphs world, ever since his cy young year, he's been a $12 million-$17 million a year pitcher outside of the year he tore apart his shoulder.

 

At his current pace he'll put up $16 million in value this year, so compared to this year that's slightly team friendly, but he's been a $12 million a year pitcher on average since the end of his cy young year.

 

People are talking about the Dodgers paying him more than that...because the Dodgers might overpay anyone who can fill their holes right now and make them a winner next year, even if it's not a smart financial move. See: Andre Etheir's contract for an example.

[iamshack]

Is 3/$36 really that "Team friendly"?

 

If you go to the fangraphs world, ever since his cy young year, he's been a $12 million-$17 million a year pitcher outside of the year he tore apart his shoulder.

 

At his current pace he'll put up $16 million in value this year, so compared to this year that's slightly team friendly, but he's been a $12 million a year pitcher on average since the end of his cy young year.

 

People are talking about the Dodgers paying him more than that...because the Dodgers might overpay anyone who can fill their holes right now and make them a winner next year, even if it's not a smart financial move. See: Andre Etheir's contract for an example.

I'd go 2/$22...take it or leave it, Jakemeister.

[Balta1701]

I'd go 2/$22...take it or leave it, Jakemeister.

I'd probably go to that level too, and that's after writing the skeptical post.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

Is 3/$36 really that "Team friendly"?

 

If you go to the fangraphs world, ever since his cy young year, he's been a $12 million-$17 million a year pitcher outside of the year he tore apart his shoulder.

 

At his current pace he'll put up $16 million in value this year, so compared to this year that's slightly team friendly, but he's been a $12 million a year pitcher on average since the end of his cy young year.

 

People are talking about the Dodgers paying him more than that...because the Dodgers might overpay anyone who can fill their holes right now and make them a winner next year, even if it's not a smart financial move. See: Andre Etheir's contract for an example.

 

Team friendly = He could get more elsewhere.

 

You don't think he can get more than $12M AAV with another team? A healthy Peavy, as we see in 2012, is a VERY good pitcher. Cole Hamels just got $25M a year, I think half of that is very team friendly.

[caulfield12]

Heck, Cliff Lee is getting $25 million, and he's older than Peavy and doesn't even have Jake's (now diminished) repertoire.

 

But no way to $15 million or more.

 

I think the consensus is $11-12-13 million per year and 2 years, no way more than 3.

 

Or two years and an option year with a fairly significant buyout again.

[Balta1701]

Team friendly = He could get more elsewhere.

 

You don't think he can get more than $12M AAV with another team? A healthy Peavy, as we see in 2012, is a VERY good pitcher. Cole Hamels just got $25M a year, I think half of that is very team friendly.

I think team friendly = paid less than his production is worth to this team.

 

He could definitely get more than $12 million salary from another team based on his performance this year. But it's not very team friendly if he gets 3/$45 and then pitches like a $12 million pitcher every year.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I think team friendly = paid less than his production is worth to this team.

 

He could definitely get more than $12 million salary from another team based on his performance this year. But it's not very team friendly if he gets 3/$45 and then pitches like a $12 million pitcher every year.

 

Maybe "hometown discount" is a more accurate phrase for what I was trying to say, although it's not his hometown.

 

But anyway, I'm speaking in terms of taking less money to stay with the team.

[Chicago White Sox]

Is 3/$36 really that "Team friendly"?

 

If you go to the fangraphs world, ever since his cy young year, he's been a $12 million-$17 million a year pitcher outside of the year he tore apart his shoulder.

 

At his current pace he'll put up $16 million in value this year, so compared to this year that's slightly team friendly, but he's been a $12 million a year pitcher on average since the end of his cy young year.

 

People are talking about the Dodgers paying him more than that...because the Dodgers might overpay anyone who can fill their holes right now and make them a winner next year, even if it's not a smart financial move. See: Andre Etheir's contract for an example.

Yes, that's a team friendly contract. I'm not sure why you think a 25% discount over his actual value is only "slightly" team friendly. That's a pretty significant discount.

 

Regardless, he's going to be one of the top starters in free agency and someone will give him $15 million or more a year. I don't think he'd take a 3/36 offer from us not should he. If you want to keep him, either you pick up his option or make a legitimate multi-year offer. I'd much rather go 1/18 with him then 3/45, which is probably closer to what he'd accept.

[Balta1701]

Yes, that's a team friendly contract. I'm not sure why you think a 25% discount over his actual value is only "slightly" team friendly. That's a pretty significant discount.

 

Regardless, he's going to be one of the top starters in free agency and someone will give him $15 million or more a year. I don't think he'd take a 3/36 offer from us not should he. If you want to keep him, either you pick up his option or make a legitimate multi-year offer. I'd much rather go 1/18 with him then 3/45, which is probably closer to what he'd accept.

Because that's a 25% discount over his performance this year, but its right in line with what he's been worth for 2008-on .