2013 Rotation

[Quin]

Choose five.

 

I'm going Sale, Quintana, Peavy, Liriano and an new RH (I'll take a shot in the dark and say E-Jax).

 

I feel Sale and Quintana are the two locks.

 

I think Peavy and the Sox come together on a deal in the $13M-$15M range for three years, plus his buy out.

 

I think Liriano pitches fantastically down the stretch and Coop wants him to stick around.

 

Then, I think Humber/Floyd/Danks are all gone via trade. Floyd in a Quentinesque dump. For some reason, I also feel some team would just take Danks + Humber for another Quentin type deal.

 

Then I feel Coop would try to get E-Jax back as the right hander...him or McCarthy.

 

I'd like a five of Sale-Peavy-Liriano-Jackson-Quintana. Four pitchers with nasty stuff and Buehrle Jr.

[justBLAZE]

I voted the same 5 as you, just because I have no idea when/if Danks comes back.

[witesoxfan]

It's very hard not to like Francisco Liriano, especially at the price at which it's possible he could be resigned. However, with the somewhat girth of (relatively mediocre) starting pitching that the White Sox have accumulated in the last few years, it's hard to assume or have any idea as to what the rotation is going to look like going into next season. And, even though the Royals did it with 4 terrible left handed starting pitchers in 2004 (Darrell May, Brian Anderson, Jimmy Gobble, and Jeremy Affeldt), it's generally not a good idea to have 4 left handed starting ptichers. So, if you have Sale, Quintana, and Liriano in the rotation, you are assuming either that you are going to go with a 6 man rotation or that you assume Danks simply won't be back next year.

 

Now, considering Danks underwent this shoulder surgery in August, it doesn't rule out the possibility of him coming back mid-year. If that's the case, I actually want him as a bullpen arm down the stretch. It's not something he's ever done before, but that will build up the strength in his shoulder relatively quickly and will put him at a spot come the offseason of 13-14 where he can move back into the rotation, and the Sox can then make a decision on Sale/Quintana/Liriano, if one of them doesn't crap the bed before that (which, knowing the inexperience of the middle and the inconsistency of the latter, is likely to happen anyways).

 

All we can do is hope that it all comes after the Sox win a World Series. They're hanging blow-for-blow with what I believe to be the best team in the league right now.

[Soxfest]

Floyd not being in rotation is addition by subtraction!

[Rowand44]

, it's generally not a good idea to have 4 left handed starting ptichers.

Can I ask why on this? I feel like besides that awful Royals staff we have no precedent for this. If they're 4 good starters I don't see why this would be a problem.

 

Also, imo Castro is either going to be in the rotation next season or used as bait to bring in a top of the rotation starter.

 

Floyd not being in rotation is addition by subtraction!

Ridiculous. I get that Gavin is frustrating but he's become so freakin underrated on this site.

[johnnymick]

Floyd not being in rotation is addition by subtraction!

 

Since 2008, he has given us at least 185 innings with an ERA lower than 4.4 every year. There is value in having a guy like that in your rotation. It is not easy to find someone to pitch those innings that well. Just look to when we had no 5th starter in the first few years of the 2000s.

Edited August 5, 2012 by johnnymick

[flavum]

Floyd had a 1.33 ERA in his previous 3 starts. He's been incredibly durable in his career too. The frustrating part about him is his stuff is top of the rotation quality. But he's a quality #4 starter. Win some. Lose some. At the end of the year, he's around .500 with close to 200 innings. When you have Peavy and Sale doing the heavy lifting, guys like Liriano, Floyd and Quintana are good enough. And if you get a hot streak out of them, they can win a championship.

[SOXOBAMA]

Sale, Lohse, Danks, Liriano and Quintana.

[maggsmaggs]

Since 2008, he has given us at least 185 innings with an ERA lower than 4.4 every year. There is value in having a guy like that in your rotation. It is not easy to find someone to pitch those innings that well. Just look to when we had no 5th starter in the first few years of the 2000s.

He is just frustrating to everyone because he has ACE stuff, but never can figure out how to be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter. You're right though, he has tremendous value as a 4 or 5, but with his salary at $10 million next year, it's money that probably can be better spent.

[caulfield12]

Is Floyd worth $9.5 million?

 

If we had to choose between him and Liriano for the same amount of money (or less), you probably go with the potential of Liriano.

 

There's more risk on both sides, but it would be worth it.

[fathom]

It will be interesting to view this thread in 2 months if Liriano struggles the rest of the year.

[SOXOBAMA]

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien

Francisco Liriano has given up only 6 HRs to lefty batters in his whole career; lowest total in baseball since 2005

 

[daggins]

Sale/Quintana/Leeryanno/Floyd/Righty FA

 

Castro is likely bullpen fodder at this point but maybe Molina can turn it around. I believe KW when he says he has the highest ceiling in our system.

[southsider2k5]

Chuck Garfien ‏@ChuckGarfien

Francisco Liriano has given up only 6 HRs to lefty batters in his whole career; lowest total in baseball since 2005

IIRC, two of them were in his last start against the White Sox.

[johnnymick]

He is just frustrating to everyone because he has ACE stuff, but never can figure out how to be more than a back-of-the-rotation starter. You're right though, he has tremendous value as a 4 or 5, but with his salary at $10 million next year, it's money that probably can be better spent.

 

$10 million is expensive for him, but with Sale and Quintana on cheaper contracts, I think we can afford to overpay to know we have a solid back-end starter who will eat a lot of innings.

 

With that being said, if Kenny is confident he can replace Floyd with a better starter, particularly one with a reasonable contract, I have no problems seeing Floyd walk. It would be interesting to see what contract he would get on the open market.

Edited August 5, 2012 by johnnymick

[Balta1701]

Sale/Quintana/Leeryanno/Floyd/Righty FA

 

Castro is likely bullpen fodder at this point but maybe Molina can turn it around. I believe KW when he says he has the highest ceiling in our system.

Zero reason to think Castro is bullpen fodder IMO.

[Balta1701]

Is Floyd worth $9.5 million?

 

If we had to choose between him and Liriano for the same amount of money (or less), you probably go with the potential of Liriano.

 

There's more risk on both sides, but it would be worth it.

In the fangraphs world, Floyd's been worth $11 million to $20 million since 2008. Fangraphs isn't liking his peripherals yet this year, but otherwise, he's been worht more than $9.5 million by a lot.

[Quin]

I don't think Floyd is god-awful (he is certainly the most frustrating though, because he's either brilliant or cannon fodder), but I do think he can be shipped in a deal similar to Quentin's if Kenny goes after another righty.

 

It's also worth noting there's a SMALL precedent. If the quartet of Peavy-Sale-Quintana-Liriano goes all '05 Postseason for us, I can see Kenny bringing them all back and then doing a big splash type move, such as the Thome and Vazquez moves combined for another ace. It'd be insane, but I could still see it happening.

Edited August 5, 2012 by Quinarvy

[daggins]

Zero reason to think Castro is bullpen fodder IMO.

 

You mean beyond the fact that even when healthy he has been hammered by AAA teams, repeatedly? Also he is going to be 25 next year and has had two down years in a row?

[Balta1701]

You mean beyond the fact that even when healthy he has been hammered by AAA teams, repeatedly? Also he is going to be 25 next year and has had two down years in a row?

Yes, considering that he hasn't really had a down year this year, he was solid at AA, he had a short DL stint, he's started 5 games at Charlotte total, 2 of which gave up 6 runs and 3 of which gave up 0 runs? Yes.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Can't really answer the question until we know the outcome of Danks' surgery. Sale is going nowhere (although given his tremendous value I'd shop him and see if someone makes a stupid good offer), Quintana shouldn't be either given performance vs. cost + control, and it's hard to have 4 lefties in a rotation. Danks vs. Liriano is the question I think since you don't need 2 expensive lefties when you already have 2 good, cheap ones.

 

I think Floyd is gone for sure. Kenny has been shopping him for a long time now and he hasn't done enough to warrant an extension. Humber will likely be moved and I'd expect Peavy is a good bet to come back on a reworked deal.

 

Actually, the more I think about it, I'd definitely shop Sale. He'll be getting to arb quickly and he'll be worth a ton there, and the innings & durability questions would make me pull the trigger if some GM offered a sick package of prospects headed by an MLB-ready All-Star caliber position player, specifically a 3B. I wouldn't move him though unless I got a package of players that made me think I had at least one MLB-ready All-Star and 2 near-ready above average starting pitchers or position players. And at least 2 of the 3 would have to have high floors. In fact, if you trade Sale I'd try to get Liriano on a nice deal to kind of replace that top-of-the-rotation kind of lefty and then market Danks if he comes back strong. Lots of possibilities exist with the Sox current rotation depth.

[cabiness42]

Sale, Liriano, Quintana, Danks, Humber

[The Ultimate Champion]

You mean beyond the fact that even when healthy he has been hammered by AAA teams, repeatedly? Also he is going to be 25 next year and has had two down years in a row?

Age means next to nothing for a pitcher. If the stuff is there and he's throwing good strikes with it then he has a chance.

[caulfield12]

Can't really answer the question until we know the outcome of Danks' surgery. Sale is going nowhere (although given his tremendous value I'd shop him and see if someone makes a stupid good offer), Quintana shouldn't be either given performance vs. cost + control, and it's hard to have 4 lefties in a rotation. Danks vs. Liriano is the question I think since you don't need 2 expensive lefties when you already have 2 good, cheap ones.

 

I think Floyd is gone for sure. Kenny has been shopping him for a long time now and he hasn't done enough to warrant an extension. Humber will likely be moved and I'd expect Peavy is a good bet to come back on a reworked deal.

 

Actually, the more I think about it, I'd definitely shop Sale. He'll be getting to arb quickly and he'll be worth a ton there, and the innings & durability questions would make me pull the trigger if some GM offered a sick package of prospects headed by an MLB-ready All-Star caliber position player, specifically a 3B. I wouldn't move him though unless I got a package of players that made me think I had at least one MLB-ready All-Star and 2 near-ready above average starting pitchers or position players. And at least 2 of the 3 would have to have high floors. In fact, if you trade Sale I'd try to get Liriano on a nice deal to kind of replace that top-of-the-rotation kind of lefty and then market Danks if he comes back strong. Lots of possibilities exist with the Sox current rotation depth.

 

 

Except you're not going to get that offer on Sale for the same reason KW would be scared to death to extend him 1-2 years into FA instead of going year by year on him.

 

You'll get a very nice package, but it's always going to be mitigated by those underlying injury/durability concerns. He's probably worth a lot more to us than other teams at this point.

 

I mean....imagine you're the GM of another team, would you trade them your own equivalent of 2008-2009 Gordon Beckham, another Top 50-100 prospect and something along the lines of a Simon Castro or Mitchell? That's a hell of a risk there.

[Cali]

I'm 95% sure Kenny will sell high on Q this off-season (Assuming he doesn't completely implode here down the stretch...which is looking likely after his last few starts)

 

I also think Liriano is back.