AL records since June 22

[Greg Hibbard]

OAK 24-13
DET 24-14
CHW 23-14
NYY 22-16
SEA 21-17
TEX 19-17
LAA 19-19

MIN 19-20
BOS 18-21
TB  18-21
TOR 17-21
BAL 17-21


KC  14-25
CLE 13-26

 

This underscores a few things about this season that aren't immediately apparent from the regular standings:

 

1) The AL is chock full of teams that can play very competitive baseball for an extended stretch of the season. For the last several weeks, it seemed as though the Sox were either: playing a contender, playing a team hovering around .500, or playing a road series at a division opponent that was going to potentially give us trouble. Even though Cleveland has lost 9 in a row, they obviously played very good baseball through the end of July. Even Seattle and Minnesota have been playing better ball of late, as these standings indicate. KC has obviously slipped (they way they usually do midseason), but that's not really a surprise. There really aren't any "easy" stretches to anyone's schedule recently, and the fact that our Sox have gone through it as one of the best teams is truly remarkable.

 

2) Contrary to what I've heard many pundits say (Detroit just can't seem to get anything really GOING for an extended stretch), the Tigers have been the second best team in the AL since late June, just behind the A's, and our White Sox have hung RIGHT WITH THEM. That's very encouraging for our long term prospects.

 

3) The A's series is IMO one of the most important series this month. If you asked me to pick 4 games I'd like to win of these 6, I'd choose to lose 2/3 to the Royals and sweep the A's. If we can do some damage to their fragile playoff psyche, we might send them into a tailspin that renders the second WC out of the Tigers/Sox loser. Although we'd certainly prefer to win the division, it would be nice to have that as a safety valve.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[BFirebird]

OAK 24-13
DET 24-14
CHW 23-14
NYY 22-16
SEA 21-17
TEX 19-17
LAA 19-19

MIN 19-20
BOS 18-21
TB  18-21
TOR 17-21
BAL 17-21


KC  14-25
CLE 13-26

 

This underscores a few things about this season that aren't immediately apparent from the regular standings:

 

1) The AL is chock full of teams that can play very competitive baseball for an extended stretch of the season. For the last several weeks, it seemed as though the Sox were either: playing a contender, playing a team hovering around .500, or playing a road series at a division opponent that was going to potentially give us trouble. Even though Cleveland has lost 9 in a row, they obviously played very good baseball through the end of July. Even Seattle and Minnesota have been playing better ball of late, as these standings indicate. KC has obviously slipped (they way they usually do midseason), but that's not really a surprise. There really aren't any "easy" stretches to anyone's schedule recently, and the fact that our Sox have gone through it as one of the best teams is truly remarkable.

 

2) Contrary to what I've heard many pundits say (Detroit just can't seem to get anything really GOING for an extended stretch), the Tigers have been the second best team in the AL since late June, just behind with the A's, and our White Sox have hung RIGHT WITH THEM. That's very encouraging for our long term prospects.

 

3) The A's series is IMO one of the most important series this month. If you asked me to pick 4 games I'd like to win of these 6, I'd choose to lose 2/3 to the Royals and sweep the A's. If we can do some damage to their fragile playoff psyche, we might send them into a tailspin that renders the second WC out of the Tigers/Sox loser. Although we'd certainly prefer to win the division, it would be nice to have that as a safety valve.

 

Nice work. Like everyone has already said on this site...the Sox really need to get some distance when Detroit has their rough part of their schedule. The last part is a cake walk.

[balfanman]

I really don't look at it like one stretch of games or another is key to winning the division. I think that the key is going to be playing a little better than 500 ball against everyone, in other words, just keeping up the same pace. But we must beat Detroit when we play them.

 

Unless we totally start sucking against everyone else the Detroit games are going to decide the division. If we do start sucking against everyone else, the Detroit games won't matter anyway. Whether we are ahead of Detroit when we play them, or behind them, really the only thing that matters is beating Detroit.

Edited August 6, 2012 by balfanman

[Cali]

The 4 game series at home with the Tigers September 10-13 may decide the Division.

[balfanman]

The 4 game series at home with the Tigers September 10-13 may decide the Division.

 

And in other news.

[Cali]

And in other news.

 

As close as they've been this whole time they probably wind up splitting it and then it comes down to the last freakin' day of the season haha

[Greg Hibbard]

I really don't look at it like one stretch of games or another is key to winning the division. I think that the key is going to be playing a little better than 500 ball against everyone, in other words, just keeping up the same pace. But we must beat Detroit when we play them.

 

Unless we totally start sucking against everyone else the Detroit games are going to decide the division. If we do start sucking against everyone else, the Detroit games won't matter anyway. Whether we are ahead of Detroit when we play them, or behind them, really the only thing that matters is beating Detroit.

 

Well, certainly it helps if you're keeping pace when your main rival is pretty hot, and that was my main point. Kind of quietly (mostly because they had a REALLY hot stretch of 15 games and then lost a few in a row), the Tigers have put together a very nice extended run.

 

The Tigers also finished last year with that remarkable 40-17 clip, which apparently informed everyone to expect it again (the ones that feel the Tigers still prevail especially). I think people are forgetting one crucial detail - The Tigers treaded water at .500 for the better part of three months leading up to that. It's one thing for a team to get really hot over a 57 games stretch like that, after mostly treading water. However, the Tigers have already had a 24-14 stretch, and are still in second place. They have a lot more work to do at a similar clip to take the lead, and potentially put themselves in a position to win this division. The White Sox clearly aren't fading or going away - and are coming up on a stretch where they play most of their games at home. For Tigers fans, it's gotta be coming up on "what do we have to do" - after all, you swept the Sox at home and are 10 over in the last 38 - and you've made up exactly .5 games.

 

It's quite likely that it will take 90, 91, 92 games to win the AL Central. For the Tigers to win 91 games, they would have to go 57-35 from June 22nd through October 1st. The Tigers are a talented team, but I just don't see this roster playing .620 ball for the last 92 games this season. They just aren't capable of being that consistent. The league, as I've pointed out in the above standings, seems to also have more competitive teams than last year.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[YASNY]

Well, certainly it helps if you're keeping pace when your main rival is pretty hot, and that was my main point. Kind of quietly (mostly because they had a REALLY hot stretch of 15 games and then lost a few in a row), the Tigers have put together a very nice extended run.

 

The Tigers also finished last year with that remarkable 40-17 clip, which apparently informed everyone to expect it again (the ones that feel the Tigers still prevail especially). I think people are forgetting one crucial detail - The Tigers treaded water at .500 for the better part of three months leading up to that. It's one thing for a team to get really hot over a 57 games stretch like that, after mostly treading water. However, the Tigers have already had a 24-14 stretch, and are still in second place. They have a lot more work to do at a similar clip to take the lead, and potentially put themselves in a position to win this division. The White Sox clearly aren't fading or going away - and are coming up on a stretch where they play most of their games at home. For Tigers fans, it's gotta be coming up on "what do we have to do" - after all, you swept the Sox at home and are 10 over in the last 38 - and you've made up exactly .5 games.

 

It's quite likely that it will take 90, 91, 92 games to win the AL Central. For the Tigers to win 91 games, they would have to go 57-35 from June 22nd through October 1st. The Tigers are a talented team, but I just don't see this roster playing .620 ball for the last 92 games this season. They just aren't capable of being that consistent. The league, as I've pointed out in the above standings, seems to also have more competitive teams than last year.

 

A very nice, well thought out analysis but I'm going to put it in a different perspective for you. This Tigers are 1.5 games back with 2 months of baseball left. .620 ball or not, they have to make up an average of one measly game a month.

[The Ginger Kid]

Just need to get Cabrera drunk again. That'll clinch it.

[Greg Hibbard]

A very nice, well thought out analysis but I'm going to put it in a different perspective for you. This Tigers are 1.5 games back with 2 months of baseball left. .620 ball or not, they have to make up an average of one measly game a month.

 

Thanks for the kudos.

 

You're right, but here's the thing - they haven't even been able to make up 1 measly game, despite playing BETTER than .630, over the past 45 days.

Edited August 6, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[balfanman]

Thanks for the kudos.

 

You're right, but here's the thing - they haven't even been able to make up 1 measly game, despite playing BETTER than .630, over the past 45 days.

 

I agree, and thank you, you do have a well thought out post. I just think that it doesn't really matter at this point. As long as the Sox & Tigers play everyone else about equal (no more than 2 -3 games difference either way), and the track record this season says that this should happen, then the only thing that really matters is who wins when they play head to head. Another stinker of a series like the last time they played and the Sox are done.

[RME JICO]

This underscores a few things about this season that aren't immediately apparent from the regular standings:

 

1) The AL is chock full of teams that can play very competitive baseball for an extended stretch of the season. For the last several weeks, it seemed as though the Sox were either: playing a contender, playing a team hovering around .500, or playing a road series at a division opponent that was going to potentially give us trouble. Even though Cleveland has lost 9 in a row, they obviously played very good baseball through the end of July. Even Seattle and Minnesota have been playing better ball of late, as these standings indicate. KC has obviously slipped (they way they usually do midseason), but that's not really a surprise. There really aren't any "easy" stretches to anyone's schedule recently, and the fact that our Sox have gone through it as one of the best teams is truly remarkable.

 

2) Contrary to what I've heard many pundits say (Detroit just can't seem to get anything really GOING for an extended stretch), the Tigers have been the second best team in the AL since late June, just behind the A's, and our White Sox have hung RIGHT WITH THEM. That's very encouraging for our long term prospects.

 

3) The A's series is IMO one of the most important series this month. If you asked me to pick 4 games I'd like to win of these 6, I'd choose to lose 2/3 to the Royals and sweep the A's. If we can do some damage to their fragile playoff psyche, we might send them into a tailspin that renders the second WC out of the Tigers/Sox loser. Although we'd certainly prefer to win the division, it would be nice to have that as a safety valve.

 

1) The AL has less bad teams this year compared to the NL. There are 10 teams with realistic playoff hopes.

 

2) I think what most are talking about is that the Tigers have been really streaky. During that stretch, they were 6-5-1 in series, and during the same stretch, the Sox went 9-2-1, yet we had a worse overall record. Interleague play also hurt us when we only went 6-9. We split with NYY and have beat LAA and TEX during that stretch, which shows we can beat those teams in a series.

 

3) I would never sacrifice a Division win over a non-Divisional win. Either way, they both count towards AL wins for the WC. That almost seems like a defeatist attitude. I don't see Oakland as a threat. Just like the Orioles, they have won a bunch of Extra Innings and 1-run games. Eventually that will correct itself. They have great pitching, but the worst offense in the league. I would say the two 4-game series are more important. Both are away vs WC teams as well. We can't afford to split or lose those series, because a series loss is 2 games, not one like a 3-game series. So @TOR and @BAL seem to be more important.