Post your Top 10 Sox Prospects

[QuickJones81]

1. Courtney Hawkins

2. Trayce Thompson

3. Erik Johnson

4. Andre Rienzo

5. Carlos Sanchez

6. Keenyn Walker

7. Keon Barnum

8. Scott Snodgress

9. Joey DeMichele

10. Jared Mitchell

11. Brandon Short

12. Kevin Vance

13. Nestor Molina

14. Tyler Saladino

15. Darwin Matos

16. Jose Bautista

17. Marcus Semien

18. Euclides Leyer

19. Chris Beck

20. Eric Grabe

 

[NorthSideSox72]

1. Courtney Hawkins

2. Trayce Thompson

3. Erik Johnson

4. Andre Rienzo

5. Carlos Sanchez

6. Keenyn Walker

7. Keon Barnum

8. Scott Snodgress

9. Joey DeMichele

10. Jared Mitchell

11. Brandon Short

12. Kevin Vance

13. Nestor Molina

14. Tyler Saladino

15. Darwin Matos

16. Jose Bautista

17. Marcus Semien

18. Euclides Leyer

19. Chris Beck

20. Eric Grabe

Welcome to the board!

 

Brandon Short and Kevin Vance are pretty big surprises to me on your list. Same with Leyer and Grabe, though to lesser extents. Would you care to expound on your thinking on them? And what info do you have on Bautista?

 

 

[QuickJones81]

Welcome to the board!

 

Brandon Short and Kevin Vance are pretty big surprises to me on your list. Same with Leyer and Grabe, though to lesser extents. Would you care to expound on your thinking on them? And what info do you have on Bautista?

 

Thanks for the welcome! Here were my thoughts:

 

Grabe: Has been doing pretty good for Bristol this year, in the ~80th percentile for rookie league. From the numbers he can hit for average, has some pop in his bat, strikes out only 18% of the time, and has a decent walks to strikeouts ratio. He’s a dark horse for me.

 

Leyer: Under 20 and already to low A. He yields a high strikeout rate, with a decent walk rate. He appears to leave the ball in the zone too often as evidenced by his high BAA.

 

Short: Injured for most of the year with the torn labrum but he’s off to a great start at high A in 7 games back. Strikeouts are a problem, but he does show pop and has demonstrated it as high as AA in previous seasons. His walk rate leaves something to be desired as well. He could contribute off the bench as early as next year in my mind.

 

Bautista: Currently out for the year with an arm injury, but had two good starts at Bristol and in previous seasons at DSL showed himself to be a very hard pitcher to make contact on, with a high strikeout rate. His control looks to need work, as his walks/ip is not great. Plus at the age of 20, he’s a good project to stash near the bottom of the list. We’ll have to wait and see how he bounces back from injury.

 

Vance: Young, high K / low walk guy. Can start, but could also be valuable bullpen arm some day, and has held a closers role in the past. Has seemingly done better with each progression in the organization.

 

I struggle putting people like Petricka on the list who have great stuff, but can’t seem to put it together on the field. I’m more about letting the data speak. I also probably should place Castro a lot higher, but something leaves me apprehensive after his numbers have fallen a bit going to AAA. I'm big on how a guy does when he gets promoted, I believe that says a lot about career projection and ceilings.

 

[danman31]

I can't say I agreed with much in the above post. Leyer is the only prospect of the bunch you named.

 

Short seems fringy because of his mostly mediocre numbers throughout his career. He had one good season in 2011 with Winston-Salem. Other than that fairly average. He had a .318 OBP in AA last year, that's not good enough.

 

I don't like jumping on the rookie ball guys yet. Remember Kevan Smith?

 

The thing with Petricka is that you can make him a reliever where his secondary stuff is less important and his fastball can receive a velocity jump.

 

I don't get how a guy like Castro, who has shown good walk and groundball rates in AAA, sits below a 23 year old in rookie ball (Grabe). Also, what does Kevin Vance have that another A ball reliever like Terance Marin doesn't?

[OilCan]

1) Courtney Hawkins

2) Trayce Thompson

3) Keon Barnum

4) Keenyn Walker

5) Carlos Sanchez

6) Jared Mitchell

7) Erik Johnson

8) Simon Castro

9) Nestor Molina

10) Chris Beck

 

I can see flip flopping Mitchell and Johnson, but Jared's power numbers are his saving grace. He won't be a prototypical home run hitter but he'll hit a few. The K's will always be there.

I still have faith in Nestor Molina. Marco Paddy must have seen something in the kid to have KW want to trade for him. I'll give him a chance.

[oldsox]

OF instead of 1B, and now playing at AA... so he's higher up the food chain.

Exactly. Age is not the end of all things of course, and Dan Black may end up making it. Shoemaker is in a similar category, though with better hitting numbers, playing

 

Dan Black is also a first baseman, and generally you are only going to get somewhere at that position if you are a seriously premium bat. He doesn't have that at this point. If he goes to AA next year and demolishes the ball, maybe gets to AAA in 2013 as well, then it might be time to start talking about him being a top propsect. Heck, look at a guy on his own team, Michael Earley... who is putting up better hitting numbers, almost a year younger, playing OF instead of 1B, and having fewer development years to do it... and even he is a marginal prospect.

 

Also, oldsox, what would your top 10 be?

When I mentioned Dan Black, I knew you guys would bring up the age thing. Not much I can do to refute it. But if I sign a player like Black or Kevin Smith out of college, which means they are older, I would be inclined to start them higher and/or promote them faster just to see what shakes out. I would be more patient with younger players. But if they can hit, they will hit. I guess I am not so inclined to punish a prospect who has 3-4 yrs of college experience. I wish Black were promoted. Now. Something about high average with power intrigues me. I don't care if he is a first baseman -- as long as he can hit, there is real value there.

 

I think I am pretty good at evaluating a player if I get to see him play, but my only means of evaluating Sox prospects here is through FS. So I'm grateful to those who give us this daily info. Putting a number on them and ranking them is guesswork, but I do like to see what you and a few others put out there. Since you asked me.....

 

1. Sanchez (only 20)

2. Snodgrass

3. E Johnson

 

After that in no particular order

 

Walker

Earley

Black

Maren

Kussmaul

Rienzo

Hawkins

Thompson (next year he is either off my list or near the top)

Phegley

Semien (I like middle infielders with some power)

J Danks

K Smith

Hankerd (old, I know. Move him up until he stops hitting)

 

We have four veteran minor league pitchers in Santiago, Axelrod, Shirek, and Leesman. There are pitchers currently in the bigs who are not as good as these four. Keep working them and one or two will make the majors for someone.

 

Hawkins is the only one there who has not yet done much, but there is a ton of ability there. There are several high school draftees from 2012 draft who have done much better, however.

[danman31]

Hawkins is the only one there who has not yet done much, but there is a ton of ability there. There are several high school draftees from 2012 draft who have done much better, however.

Do you mean from the White Sox draft class or from the draft in general?

[fathom]

Do you mean from the White Sox draft class or from the draft in general?

 

I assume he means guys like Dahl and Gallo

[oldsox]

Do you mean from the White Sox draft class or from the draft in general?

in general. Don't get me wrong, I am not second guessing this pick of Hawkins. Next year will be big for him.

[QuickJones81]

I can't say I agreed with much in the above post. Leyer is the only prospect of the bunch you named.

 

Short seems fringy because of his mostly mediocre numbers throughout his career. He had one good season in 2011 with Winston-Salem. Other than that fairly average. He had a .318 OBP in AA last year, that's not good enough.

 

I don't like jumping on the rookie ball guys yet. Remember Kevan Smith?

 

The thing with Petricka is that you can make him a reliever where his secondary stuff is less important and his fastball can receive a velocity jump.

 

I don't get how a guy like Castro, who has shown good walk and groundball rates in AAA, sits below a 23 year old in rookie ball (Grabe). Also, what does Kevin Vance have that another A ball reliever like Terance Marin doesn't?

 

Short actually had his best year with WS in 2010, and his year last year is the latest we have to go off of except for the few game this season. He maxes out as a role player to me, which is a testament to the state of the system.

 

Castro has a fine walk rate, but his BAA is horrible (.317, .333, .333 in 3 AAA stints in 3 years) bringing his WHIP up too high, and he can't back it up with the strikeout rate that originally got him noticed in his younger days, which leads me to believe he will have a hard time getting out of jams at the next level. If he doesn't get promoted this year, you're looking at 25+ yr old AA pitcher. He's lost prospect status in my eyes and will max out as a call up spot starter to temporarily fill a gap due to injury.

 

I'm a Marin fan as well, and his numbers are extremely similar to Vance. Vance gets the nod from me because he's almost a full year younger and has history as a starter, which is far more valuable.

 

Unfortunately for us if we're going to look for talent we have to do a lot of trolling through rookie league and A. Charlotte is nearly void of any real prospects and birmingham only has about 6 guys who I have much interest in.

[danman31]

Short actually had his best year with WS in 2010, and his year last year is the latest we have to go off of except for the few game this season. He maxes out as a role player to me, which is a testament to the state of the system.

 

Castro has a fine walk rate, but his BAA is horrible (.317, .333, .333 in 3 AAA stints in 3 years) bringing his WHIP up too high, and he can't back it up with the strikeout rate that originally got him noticed in his younger days, which leads me to believe he will have a hard time getting out of jams at the next level. If he doesn't get promoted this year, you're looking at 25+ yr old AA pitcher. He's lost prospect status in my eyes and will max out as a call up spot starter to temporarily fill a gap due to injury.

 

I'm a Marin fan as well, and his numbers are extremely similar to Vance. Vance gets the nod from me because he's almost a full year younger and has history as a starter, which is far more valuable.

 

Unfortunately for us if we're going to look for talent we have to do a lot of trolling through rookie league and A. Charlotte is nearly void of any real prospects and birmingham only has about 6 guys who I have much interest in.

I meant 2010, I said with WS after all. He does max out as a role player, which is exactly why he's not a well-rated prospect and shouldn't be in the top 20.

 

Castro is already in AAA, which I said, so he wouldn't be a 25 year old AA pitcher. None of his 3 AAA stints have reached 30 innings, it's not fair to judge his career worth on short stints like that.

 

Vance's "history" as a starter is irrelevant because he doesn't profile as a starter and won't remain one. They're just giving him more innings. I don't see how that makes him more valuable.

 

I also think you're fundamentally viewing prospects incorrectly if you're referring to it as 'trolling through rookie league and A.' The level of a player doesn't say anything about talent by itself. In most cases it just means the player is younger. When you factor in age, talent and performance the level matters, but by itself it doesn't say a lot.

[QuickJones81]

I meant 2010, I said with WS after all. He does max out as a role player, which is exactly why he's not a well-rated prospect and shouldn't be in the top 20.

 

Castro is already in AAA, which I said, so he wouldn't be a 25 year old AA pitcher. None of his 3 AAA stints have reached 30 innings, it's not fair to judge his career worth on short stints like that.

 

Vance's "history" as a starter is irrelevant because he doesn't profile as a starter and won't remain one. They're just giving him more innings. I don't see how that makes him more valuable.

 

I also think you're fundamentally viewing prospects incorrectly if you're referring to it as 'trolling through rookie league and A.' The level of a player doesn't say anything about talent by itself. In most cases it just means the player is younger. When you factor in age, talent and performance the level matters, but by itself it doesn't say a lot.

 

I guess my choice of words was wrong, but what I meant by needing to look at rookie and A is that is where the new faces are at. The system hasn't been strong for years, and the players at the upper levels for the most part are products of this poor system. The new faces are the chances for improvement and future strength. That is what I meant by trolling through the low levels. I am a bit of a stats/data nerd because of my background in engine development, and I have taken some of the methods for data reduction and second and third level statistics and applied it to baseball, specifically white sox prospects. Needless to say my wife things I'm a giant loser, but i get enjoyment out of it, so i really don't care. In essence the spreadsheet I have set up takes in the statistics, factors in age, hysteresis/trajectory including a subjective bias towards improvement with progression, as well as a model for comparison against peers at their level so that I don't fall prey to the biasing that some leagues and levels naturally bring (i.e. DSL being completely dominated by pitching). It ends up grounding a low level player for a quick comparison to how another player is performing at say AAA. It's my own way of assessing the talent without being able to see them with my eyes. It's definitely a work in progress, but it's how I came to my top 20.

[danman31]

My experience is that there are too many other factors for a model like that to be consistent. I'd be curious what other factors are included. Park factors for example can be extremely important on a player's season.

 

Then you have a guy like Jose Bautista, who managed to have a high walk rate in the DSL, a league that typically does not have a lot of patient hitters. That's another league factor like you mentioned. He had major control problems in his short Bristol stint. How does he slide in just one spot behind Leyer who showed solid control with Bristol?

[QuickJones81]

My experience is that there are too many other factors for a model like that to be consistent. I'd be curious what other factors are included. Park factors for example can be extremely important on a player's season.

 

Then you have a guy like Jose Bautista, who managed to have a high walk rate in the DSL, a league that typically does not have a lot of patient hitters. That's another league factor like you mentioned. He had major control problems in his short Bristol stint. How does he slide in just one spot behind Leyer who showed solid control with Bristol?

 

Control is a problem for Bautista, but he has a high strikeout rate, and gives up few hits. Leyer doesn't have great control either, but gives up more hits, though he does have a betterr go/ao. Hits are more damaging then walks, so that is part of what brings the two closer together.

 

Park factor isn't directly addressed. I accounted for that by using the league level model with the theory that if you are first comparing the prospect to other peers who play in the same parks, park factor isn't as big of a player and is essentially cancelled out. Then comparing historical models across leagues I translate stats from any league up to AAA.

[danman31]

Control is a problem for Bautista, but he has a high strikeout rate, and gives up few hits. Leyer doesn't have great control either, but gives up more hits, though he does have a betterr go/ao. Hits are more damaging then walks, so that is part of what brings the two closer together.

 

Park factor isn't directly addressed. I accounted for that by using the league level model with the theory that if you are first comparing the prospect to other peers who play in the same parks, park factor isn't as big of a player and is essentially cancelled out. Then comparing historical models across leagues I translate stats from any league up to AAA.

Hits are less consistent year to year. There are many factors not in the pitcher's control with hits, defense being a big one. C'mon this is like sabermetrics 101. Most major pitching stats, like FIP for example, disregard hits.

 

I don't see how you addressed park factor. A player's home park is the only thing that matters for that, not comparing a player against the rest of the same league. That's a massive difference. Look at anyone on the Dash. Their home OPS is 100 points higher or more than their away OPS.

[Balta1701]

Having actually seen Castro, I'd also like to add that I don't think the defense behind him has helped him much this season. He got eaten alive by hits that I thought could have been fielded in the game that I saw, slow rollers on the infield that either were beaten out or just missed.

[cabiness42]

I know very little about prospects, but I'm good at math, so here's a composite of everybody's rankings, with 10 points for first down to 1 point for tenth:

 

1 Hawkins 118

2 Thompson 110

3 Johnson 85

4 Walker 78

5 Barnum 61

6 Sanchez 49

7 Rienzo 42

8 Castro 28

9 Snodgress 28

10 Mitchell 26

11 Beck 18

12 Molina 5

13 Phegley 3

14 Saladino 3

15 Petricka 3

16 DeMichele 3

17 Leesman 1

Edited August 17, 2012 by HickoryHuskers

[southsider2k5]

Interesting. Thanks for compiling that.

[NorthSideSox72]

I know very little about prospects, but I'm good at math, so here's a composite of everybody's rankings, with 10 points for first down to 1 point for tenth:

 

1 Hawkins 118

2 Thompson 110

3 Johnson 85

4 Walker 78

5 Barnum 61

6 Sanchez 49

7 Rienzo 42

8 Castro 28

9 Snodgress 28

10 Mitchell 26

11 Beck 18

12 Molina 5

13 Phegley 3

14 Saladino 3

15 Petricka 3

16 DeMichele 3

17 Leesman 1

 

Very nice, thanks. Looking at the list, I really think people are jumping from Mitchell to Walker too quickly. I like the year Walker has had, and Mitchell has struggled since coming out of the gate strong... but I have a hard time flipping those two all the way like that based on, really, just the past few months' performance. Walker may end up better than Mitchell, but I don't think he's more valuable as a prospect, yet. 2013, and even the last month of 2012, could change everything.

 

 

 

[southsider2k5]

Very nice, thanks. Looking at the list, I really think people are jumping from Mitchell to Walker too quickly. I like the year Walker has had, and Mitchell has struggled since coming out of the gate strong... but I have a hard time flipping those two all the way like that based on, really, just the past few months' performance. Walker may end up better than Mitchell, but I don't think he's more valuable as a prospect, yet. 2013, and even the last month of 2012, could change everything.

 

I think for me, the K rate is the big difference between the two. While both are high, Mitchell is Adam Dunn high, without the power. Mitchell also seems more prone to long slumps (I am guessing a really long swing).

[NorthSideSox72]

Short actually had his best year with WS in 2010, and his year last year is the latest we have to go off of except for the few game this season. He maxes out as a role player to me, which is a testament to the state of the system.

 

Castro has a fine walk rate, but his BAA is horrible (.317, .333, .333 in 3 AAA stints in 3 years) bringing his WHIP up too high, and he can't back it up with the strikeout rate that originally got him noticed in his younger days, which leads me to believe he will have a hard time getting out of jams at the next level. If he doesn't get promoted this year, you're looking at 25+ yr old AA pitcher. He's lost prospect status in my eyes and will max out as a call up spot starter to temporarily fill a gap due to injury.

 

I'm a Marin fan as well, and his numbers are extremely similar to Vance. Vance gets the nod from me because he's almost a full year younger and has history as a starter, which is far more valuable.

 

Unfortunately for us if we're going to look for talent we have to do a lot of trolling through rookie league and A. Charlotte is nearly void of any real prospects and birmingham only has about 6 guys who I have much interest in.

Also, I wouldn't read anything at all (good or bad) into Short's stats at W-S this year. The guy didn't see live pitching all season until recently, and he's a AAA-level player (at this point) rehabbing in High A. I was just happy to see him healthy enough to play this year, that was unexpected. 2013 he'll be in Charlotte, and we'll see where he stands, as the stats at that level and his age become more meaningful.

 

[Y2Jimmy0]

I have not seen many of these guys but here it goes.

 

 

1. Courtney Hawkins OF

2. Trayce Thompson OF

3. Erik Johnson RHP

4. Keon Barnum 1B

5. Keenyn Walker OF

6. Carlos Sanchez IF

7. Chris Beck RHP

8. Andre Rienzo RHP

9. Scott Snodgress LHP

10. Jacob Petricka RHP

 

 

Notes: Molina has been disappointing. Castro may be an effective #4 starter but drops out of the top 10. I don't believe Mitchell is ever going to hit "enough". I do like some of the middle IF guys in the system though, specifically DeMichele.

[hammerhead johnson]

Trayce Thompson has an .800 OPS and a batting average in the .240s (despite BABIPs over .320) between A and AA. Why are people ranking him so high? Honest question.

 

Who would be a top 100 prospect aside from Hawkins?

[danman31]

Trayce Thompson has an .800 OPS and a batting average in the .240s (despite BABIPs over .320) between A and AA. Why are people ranking him so high? Honest question.

 

Who would be a top 100 prospect aside from Hawkins?

Because he might hit 30 HR this year, he's 21 in AA, he plays good defense in the outfield and has above average speed. His power potential is massive and really there isn't a lot of competition from within the system. Most importantly, he's shown improvement this season.

 

I'm not sure Hawkins is a top 100 prospect yet. I doubt the Sox will have any in the top 100 unless one of the top few prospects finishes on a serious hot streak or shows well in the AFL.

[maxjusttyped]

Trayce Thompson has an .800 OPS and a batting average in the .240s (despite BABIPs over .320) between A and AA. Why are people ranking him so high? Honest question.

 

Who would be a top 100 prospect aside from Hawkins?

Scouts have always raved about his "raw power". That, plus his speed and ability to player center makes him an intriguing prospect. He certainly wouldn't be #2 in any other system in baseball, though. As for Hawkins, I'd be surprised if he makes any Top 100's. Most years only a handful of players that were just drafted make those types of lists. And it's not like he's been killing the ball since he debuted.