Post your Top 10 Sox Prospects

[hammerhead johnson]

I doubt the Sox will have any in the top 100

 

Haha, weak!

 

Good answer on Trayce - I just have a hard time trusting a guy who exhibits such poor plate discipline and only manages to put up an OBP north of .320 because he can leg out hits. I try not to dwell on what that could translate to in the major leagues.

Edited August 19, 2012 by hammerhead johnson

[danman31]

Good answer on Trayce - I just have a hard time trusting a guy who exhibits such poor plate discipline and only manages to put up an OBP north of .320 because he can leg out hits. I try not to dwell on what that could translate to in the major leagues.

Combine the fact that the Sox probably don't have any top 100 prospects with Trayce's abilities and that's why he's so high within this system. He still has big upside if he keeps improving. He's the kind of prospect to get excited about, but not count on.

[Rowand44]

Depending on who KW deals(which could be everyone for all I know) I'm thinking the overall system ranking will rise dramatically within the next year or two. The last 2 drafts have been impressive.

[Dizzy Sox]

Trayce Thompson has an .800 OPS and a batting average in the .240s (despite BABIPs over .320) between A and AA. Why are people ranking him so high? Honest question.

 

Who would be a top 100 prospect aside from Hawkins?

 

Check this out:

 

Year Age Level OPS HR SB

2009 18 Rookie .510 0 3

2010 19 Low A .735 8 6

2011 20 Low A .785 24 8

2012 21 A+ .810 22 18

2012 21 AA 1.277 2 0

 

Notice a trend? Keep in mind Trayce was considered very raw coming out of high school...he didn't concentrate on baseball until his Sr. year, IIRC. Add in his bloodlines, his ability to hit for power, field, run, and throw...he's a good prospect and getting better. While perhaps he is not a top 100 prospect right now, he isn't that far away and if he can continue the same growth in AA next year (I assume the Sox will send him back to B-ham) he certainly will, and maybe even crack the top 50.

Edited August 20, 2012 by Dizzy Sox

[maggsmaggs]

Because he might hit 30 HR this year, he's 21 in AA, he plays good defense in the outfield and has above average speed. His power potential is massive and really there isn't a lot of competition from within the system. Most importantly, he's shown improvement this season.

 

I'm not sure Hawkins is a top 100 prospect yet. I doubt the Sox will have any in the top 100 unless one of the top few prospects finishes on a serious hot streak or shows well in the AFL.

I like Hawkins long-term potential, but at this point, Trayce not only has the potential, he also has the solid production. Like you said, his power potential is enormous. He would hit 30 HRs this year in the minors with a 162-game schedule. Plus, he has the ability to steal at least 20 bags, maybe 30, if he improves his jumps. He is arguably as talented as Hawkins, but he is way further along. Gotta go Trayce as the No. 1 in my opinion. Also walks at a pretty solid clip.

Edited August 20, 2012 by maggsmaggs

[danman31]

I like Hawkins long-term potential, but at this point, Trayce not only has the potential, he also has the solid production. Like you said, his power potential is enormous. He would hit 30 HRs this year in the minors with a 162-game schedule. Plus, he has the ability to steal at least 20 bags, maybe 30, if he improves his jumps. He is arguably as talented as Hawkins, but he is way further along. Gotta go Trayce as the No. 1 in my opinion. Also walks at a pretty solid clip.

On the flip side we've seen him strikeout a ton. I think that offsets his advancement. Hawkins still has the fresh slate. He hasn't really done any wrong yet because he's barely played whereas we see a serious red flag with Thompson going forward. That said, I can see preferring Thompson.

[oldsox]

I don't see the logic in comparing Thompson to Hawkins. Hawkins is brand new, just out of high school. Thompson has over 1300 professional AB's in 4+ seasons, and he'll probably get several hundred more. I hope the Sox don't expect Hawkins to get another 1200 AB's before they can make a decision on him.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

I don't see the logic in comparing Thompson to Hawkins. Hawkins is brand new, just out of high school. Thompson has over 1300 professional AB's in 4+ seasons, and he'll probably get several hundred more. I hope the Sox don't expect Hawkins to get another 1200 AB's before they can make a decision on him.

 

What does that mean?

 

That means he will be 21 years old and probably (hopefully) in AA ball. Hawkins has years before "a decision" has to be made on him

[scenario]

I don't see the logic in comparing Thompson to Hawkins. Hawkins is brand new, just out of high school. Thompson has over 1300 professional AB's in 4+ seasons, and he'll probably get several hundred more. I hope the Sox don't expect Hawkins to get another 1200 AB's before they can make a decision on him.

 

Trayce

2009 - 106 at-bats in a half season of rookie ball (32 games)

2010 - 235 at-bats in 58 A-league games before getting hurt

2011 - full season In A-ball (519 at-bats)

2012 - will be a full season between high A and AA (500+ at-bats)

 

So...

Two full seasons for development. (A full season is 500+ at bats).

In those two seasons, he's come a long way. Especially this year. Seems like mid-season a light switch flicked on.

With the power numbers he's putting up... at 21 years old... definitely strong potential.

 

 

Also want to point out... Mike Trout had over 1,100 at-bats in the minors.

It's not unusual for top talent to have 1500 or more minor league at-bats before they reach MLB.

 

 

Edited August 20, 2012 by scenario

[southsider2k5]

I like Hawkins long-term potential, but at this point, Trayce not only has the potential, he also has the solid production. Like you said, his power potential is enormous. He would hit 30 HRs this year in the minors with a 162-game schedule. Plus, he has the ability to steal at least 20 bags, maybe 30, if he improves his jumps. He is arguably as talented as Hawkins, but he is way further along. Gotta go Trayce as the No. 1 in my opinion. Also walks at a pretty solid clip.

 

That is exactly what I felt in saying that Thompson could be my #1. The fact he is in AA, and doing what we hope that Hawkins will do is huge.

[hammerhead johnson]

Notice a trend? Keep in mind Trayce was considered very raw coming out of high school...he didn't concentrate on baseball until his Sr. year, IIRC. Add in his bloodlines, his ability to hit for power, field, run, and throw...he's a good prospect and getting better. While perhaps he is not a top 100 prospect right now, he isn't that far away and if he can continue the same growth in AA next year (I assume the Sox will send him back to B-ham) he certainly will, and maybe even crack the top 50.

 

His numbers indicate very poor plate discipline.

 

I've followed baseball long enough to know that it probably won't work out in the majors.

 

Sorry, fellas. I guess that life is better when you lie to yourselves.

 

If we're talking about high school/college hitters, Kenny is the blind squirrel that has yet to find even a single nut. Deny it all you want. It's the truth.

[danman31]

His numbers indicate very poor plate discipline.

 

I've followed baseball long enough to know that it probably won't work out in the majors.

 

Sorry, fellas. I guess that life is better when you lie to yourselves.

 

If we're talking about high school/college hitters, Kenny is the blind squirrel that has yet to find even a single nut. Deny it all you want. It's the truth.

First off, he walks a lot so the numbers indicate problems with contact, not poor plate discipline. Second, Kenny doesn't do the drafting. He may provide input on the first couple picks, but it's not his responsibility to draft and develop players.

[NorthSideSox72]

His numbers indicate very poor plate discipline.

 

I've followed baseball long enough to know that it probably won't work out in the majors.

 

Sorry, fellas. I guess that life is better when you lie to yourselves.

 

If we're talking about high school/college hitters, Kenny is the blind squirrel that has yet to find even a single nut. Deny it all you want. It's the truth.

Who do you think is lying to themselves? I mean, you jump into this discussion, ask what people think and say you don't follow things much... then have apparently decided that everyone you asked is delusional and you obviously know better. Not many people will want to engage you in discussion if that is your style.

 

Thompson has had the same scouting report for a long time. Came in raw, strikes out a lot, has a ton of physical tools, has plus potential for power, speed and defense, and is now starting to translate his tools into baseball skills. No one here is saying he is a future all star - but they are saying a guy with his raw talent, he does have an all star ceiling, so it is exciting to see that he MIGHT be turning a corner.

 

[southsider2k5]

Who do you think is lying to themselves? I mean, you jump into this discussion, ask what people think and say you don't follow things much... then have apparently decided that everyone you asked is delusional and you obviously know better. Not many people will want to engage you in discussion if that is your style.

 

Thompson has had the same scouting report for a long time. Came in raw, strikes out a lot, has a ton of physical tools, has plus potential for power, speed and defense, and is now starting to translate his tools into baseball skills. No one here is saying he is a future all star - but they are saying a guy with his raw talent, he does have an all star ceiling, so it is exciting to see that he MIGHT be turning a corner.

 

I guess that life is better when you lie to yourself.

[NorthSideSox72]

I guess that life is better when you lie to yourself.

Don't make me come over there old man.

 

[southsider2k5]

Don't make me come over there old man.

 

You and what wheelchair?

[southsider2k5]

Apparently Kevin Goldstein featured Trayce in his 10 pack the other day. Anyone who has a BP account want to provide a summary (not copying of course)?

[hammerhead johnson]

First off, he walks a lot so the numbers indicate problems with contact, not poor plate discipline. Second, Kenny doesn't do the drafting. He may provide input on the first couple picks, but it's not his responsibility to draft and develop players.

 

According to his fangraphs page, he doesn't draw very many walks - a 9% BB rate is decent. He also strikes out in 30% of his at bats, which indicates to me that he's misjudging a lot of pitches. That's a pretty important aspect of plate discipline, is it not? You know, judging pitches?

 

Again, a .240 batting average with a .320 BABIP. That's what he was able to accomplish in Single A. People have him down as our #2 prospect. That's great.

 

When I say that Kenny sucks at drafting college/high school hitters, it should go without saying that I'm talking about him and his camp.

[hammerhead johnson]

Who do you think is lying to themselves? I mean, you jump into this discussion, ask what people think and say you don't follow things much... then have apparently decided that everyone you asked is delusional and you obviously know better. Not many people will want to engage you in discussion if that is your style.

 

I said I don't follow things much? I have access to fangraphs, just like everyone else. That's the beautiful thing about baseball. The numbers don't lie.

 

There's not much to go on with Hawkins, but I figured that the consensus top prospect in the organization as voted on by Soxtalk members would at least have a shot at making someone's Top 100 prospects list. That was a leap of faith - I guess I should have known better.

Edited August 21, 2012 by hammerhead johnson

[Balta1701]

I said I don't follow things much? I have access to fangraphs, just like everyone else. That's the beautiful thing about baseball. The numbers don't lie.

 

There's not much to go on with Hawkins, but I figured that the consensus top prospect in the organization as voted on by Soxtalk members would at least have a shot at making someone's Top 100 prospects list. That was a leap of faith - I guess I should have known better.

The numbers can lie all the bloody time.

[hammerhead johnson]

The numbers can lie all the bloody time.

 

I'd love to hear some examples.

 

Maybe you're looking at the wrong numbers?

[Y2Jimmy0]

According to his fangraphs page, he doesn't draw very many walks - a 9% BB rate is decent. He also strikes out in 30% of his at bats, which indicates to me that he's misjudging a lot of pitches. That's a pretty important aspect of plate discipline, is it not? You know, judging pitches?

 

Again, a .240 batting average with a .320 BABIP. That's what he was able to accomplish in Single A. People have him down as our #2 prospect. That's great.

 

When I say that Kenny sucks at drafting college/high school hitters, it should go without saying that I'm talking about him and his camp.

 

 

Kenny drafting them is not completely the problem though. Kenny loves those high upside guys. Reinsdorf does not like spending money. If you draft cheap high upside guys, you end up with the Mitchells, Thompsons, and Keenyn Walkers of the world.

[hammerhead johnson]

Kenny drafting them is not completely the problem though. Kenny loves those high upside guys. Reinsdorf does not like spending money. If you draft cheap high upside guys, you end up with the Mitchells, Thompsons, and Keenyn Walkers of the world.

 

Competent GMs can find good hitters beyond the first few rounds of a draft.

 

Also, he can't scout international hitters worth a s***. Alexei and Dayan both have poor plate discipline. The former can stay because of his defensive impact, but Tank is looking like a career scrub.

 

The track record is inexcusable, and so is the lack of outrage on these here boards.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I'd love to hear some examples.

 

Maybe you're looking at the wrong numbers?

Determining talent in the minors isn't all about stats - it can't be. Stats, even advanced ones, are good tools, but they have limits. And they mean more at higher levels, more service time and older ages. Less in the opposites. Hawkins' numbers, for example, especially in such a small sample, mean only a little. Thompson's mean more of course, but he's still young and relatively raw compared to other guys at his level of play (AA). You have to also look at tools, and further from that, skills. And make-up. And actually seeing them play, which few people here actually do (for obvious practical reasons)... so you look at scouting information about them when you can. And video.

 

If it were all about stats, Dan Black would be in the top 5 prospects in the Sox system. Do you think he belongs there?

 

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Competent GMs can find good hitters beyond the first few rounds of a draft.

 

Also, he can't scout international hitters worth a s***. Alexei and Dayan both have poor plate discipline. The former can stay because of his defensive impact, but Tank is looking like a career scrub.

 

The track record is inexcusable, and so is the lack of outrage on these here boards.

 

And this is where any credibility goes completely out the window