Post your Top 10 Sox Prospects

[southsider2k5]

Competent GMs can find good hitters beyond the first few rounds of a draft.

 

Also, he can't scout international hitters worth a s***. Alexei and Dayan both have poor plate discipline. The former can stay because of his defensive impact, but Tank is looking like a career scrub.

 

The track record is inexcusable, and so is the lack of outrage on these here boards.

 

Agenda much?

[NorthSideSox72]

Competent GMs can find good hitters beyond the first few rounds of a draft.

 

Also, he can't scout international hitters worth a s***. Alexei and Dayan both have poor plate discipline. The former can stay because of his defensive impact, but Tank is looking like a career scrub.

 

The track record is inexcusable, and so is the lack of outrage on these here boards.

Using Alexei and Dayan as reasons the Sox don't do well with Cuban or international scouting is a little like saying McDonald's is healthy food and pointing to a Big Mac. Um, what? Alexei is having a down year but is still in the grand scheme an above average player at his position, and signed for relatively cheap. Viciedo is doing pretty nicely in his first full year. Where do you get the scrub thing?

 

And while the track record has been bad, if you actually did follow things, you'd see their whole approach and methodology has changed dramatically in the past few years. And some dividends are already coming out of that.

 

Nobody is under the delusion that the Sox system is very good. It is among the bottom teams in terms of high end talent depth. But guys like Alexei and Dayan from international scouting... the 12 rookies that have played on the Sox this year on a first place team, not a disaster like the Cubs or Astros... and some of the great scouting pickups like Quintana and De Aza... are all indications the system's method is improving, a lot.

 

[hammerhead johnson]

And this is where any credibility goes completely out the window

 

That's not a counter-argument, son. Dayan Viciedo will never put up a good enough OBP to justify having a starting gig on a major league roster.

[danman31]

That's not a counter-argument, son. Dayan Viciedo will never put up a good enough OBP to justify having a starting gig on a major league roster.

He's going to hit ~25 HR in his first full season in MLB and he's got a plus arm in the OF. He'll be a starter for a long time on a Major League roster.

[hammerhead johnson]

And while the track record has been bad, if you actually did follow things, you'd see their whole approach and methodology has changed dramatically in the past few years. And some dividends are already coming out of that.

 

Yeah, you said that before. Not buying it.

 

And the big picture discussion is hitting talent. Kenny Williams is good at finding pitching, but it's all for not if Chris Young and Chris Getz are the best hitters you can draft in 11 years time.

 

[southsider2k5]

That's not a counter-argument, son. Dayan Viciedo will never put up a good enough OBP to justify having a starting gig on a major league roster.

 

Answering hyperbole with hyperbole is an absolutely appropriate counter-argument.

[hammerhead johnson]

He's going to hit ~25 HR in his first full season in MLB and he's got a plus arm in the OF. He'll be a starter for a long time on a Major League roster.

 

He's killing us with that .294 OBP. 25 HR is nowhere near enough to make up for it, and left field is not an important defensive position by any means.

 

His walk rate has actually gotten worse since last year. That's not very encouraging.

[hammerhead johnson]

Answering hyperbole with hyperbole is an absolutely appropriate counter-argument.

 

That wasn't hyperbole, though.

[NorthSideSox72]

Yeah, you said that before. Not buying it.

 

And the big picture discussion is hitting talent. Kenny Williams is good at finding pitching, but it's all for not if Chris Young and Chris Getz are the best hitters you can draft in 11 years time.

Not buying it simply means you are unwilling to accept that things change. they clearly have.

 

So we're adjusting the goal posts? OK. The sox system is one of the worst in baseball in terms of hitting talent. No one is arguing otherwise. But, first off, I could care less if he drafts them or gets them from other teams or signs them as free agents. Viciedo, Ramirez, De Aza were all brought in as minor leaguers (essentially) because Sox scouting found them. Second, relative to a few years ago, the Sox system now has more hitting talent than it did then. That is called improvement. The outfield picture in particular looks pretty promising right now.

 

[Balta1701]

I'd love to hear some examples.

 

Maybe you're looking at the wrong numbers?

Seriously, how many guys have put up amazing numbers at AAA and never cut it at the big leagues when given a shot? I can think of a couple examples currently playing in Charlotte. How many guys put up average or even mediocre numbers in lower levels and then wound up excelling in the Show? John Danks is a great example. Never put up an ERA below 4 in the minors, then has been an above average starter in the big leagues...because you take things like age into account, which you're failing to do.

 

Then even once you get to the big leagues, the numbers can continue to lie. Anyone remember Chris Shelton, who came up for the Tigers and became the fastest guy in AL history to 13 homers, then was without a roster spot 2 years later? Or the time when Kevin Mench changed shoe sizes and hit like 5 home runs in 4 days and then was never heard from again?

 

Heck, if the concept of BABIP has taught us anything, it's that the numbers can certainly lie. Guys can have success via luck, guys can fail by being unlucky.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

That's not a counter-argument, son. Dayan Viciedo will never put up a good enough OBP to justify having a starting gig on a major league roster.

 

Because a 23 year old already on pace for 20+HR and 75+ RBI in his first full major league season has zero room for growth. Nice insight champ

[Balta1701]

That's not a counter-argument, son. Dayan Viciedo will never put up a good enough OBP to justify having a starting gig on a major league roster.

Just as another example, at age 22, Jose Reyes was in his first full MLB season, with almost exactly the same number of minor league PA's as Viciedo had. He put up a .300 OBP that season, taking only 27 walks in 733 PA's. The next year, he nearly doubled that number of walks.

 

This doesn't guarantee Viciedo will improve on OBP, but from the standard you're using to cast him overboard, you'd have cast over that all star as well.

[caulfield12]

This is like the argument that we should have benched Viciedo for Juan Pierre simply because of Viciedo's OPS against RHP.

 

You can do that with practically every player on the team. AJ/DeAza/Dunn against LHP, etc.

 

If you can put up an above league average OPS (for your position) at age 23, what's the PROBLEM here exactly?

 

If you want to focus on problems, start looking at the positions where we're getting below league average results, such as Morel to start the year, Ramirez for most of this season (although his defense smooths the offense out, and he's been at very least productive for a SS since late May/early June) and Beckham.

 

To just focus on ONE element of his total performance, OBP...doesn't paint the whole picture, by a long shot. And we all expect his BA to be in the .270-.290 vicinity as he matures, so that OBP will naturally come up with it, regardless of the walk numbers.

 

He showed definite signs of progress in terms of his walks/OBP in Charlotte for 2011, so there's no reason to believe we're "stuck" with his current statistical baseline for the next 3-5 years. That's limited thinking, to believe he doesn't have the potential to improve.

 

Sure, Alexei regressed from an offensive standpoint, but Dayan's much younger with less wear on his tires, so to speak.

[Marty34]

Yeah, you said that before. Not buying it.

 

And the big picture discussion is hitting talent. Kenny Williams is good at finding pitching, but it's all for not if Chris Young and Chris Getz are the best hitters you can draft in 11 years time.

 

Hammerhead Johnson is speaking the truth in this thread.

[OilCan]

[Chicago White Sox]

Hammerhead Johnson is speaking the truth in this thread.

No he's not, he said "stats don't lie' which is completely absurd, especially for minor leaguers. Scouting is at least equally if not more important than stats when analyzing young players. Most of these guys are working on specific things and making adjustments and their stats will suffer as a result. Taking those stats in aggregate often tells very little. Breaking those stats into smaller pieces and looking for trends is much more valuable IMO, especially when scouting can be used to help explain the change in production.

 

Hammerhead needs to check out Trayce Thompson's stats the last few months and then check his age versus the league and then read a scouting report to understand just how raw this kid was coming out of high school. The kid is progressing well and has plus power potential and athletesism. There are reasons people are excited about him, as he has a legit all-star ceiling, but everyone on this website knows he's far from a sure thing. Most systems have a prospect or two with both a high floor and a high ceiling. We do not have such player, which makes Thompson one of our top 2-3 prospects. That doesn't mean he sucks though and it definitively doesn't mean he has no chance of making it.

[caulfield12]

I'm going to make a guess that Hammerhead has never seen Trayce Thompson play once in his entire life.

 

 

[Marty34]

No he's not, he said "stats don't lie' which is completely absurd, especially for minor leaguers. Scouting is at least equally if not more important than stats when analyzing young players. Most of these guys are working on specific things and making adjustments and their stats will suffer as a result. Taking those stats in aggregate often tells very little. Breaking those stats into smaller pieces and looking for trends is much more valuable IMO, especially when scouting can be used to help explain the change in production.

 

Hammerhead needs to check out Trayce Thompson's stats the last few months and then check his age versus the league and then read a scouting report to understand just how raw this kid was coming out of high school. The kid is progressing well and has plus power potential and athletesism. There are reasons people are excited about him, as he has a legit all-star ceiling, but everyone on this website knows he's far from a sure thing. Most systems have a prospect or two with both a high floor and a high ceiling. We do not have such player, which makes Thompson one of our top 2-3 prospects. That doesn't mean he sucks though and it definitively doesn't mean he has no chance of making it.

 

Hammerhead is right in not being excited about Thompson in my opinion because of the incredibly poor track record that organization in developing hitters. Thompson has shown nothing in his development to make me believe he's the guy they got right.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

Hammerhead is right in not being excited about Thompson in my opinion because of the incredibly poor track record that organization in developing hitters. Thompson has shown nothing in his development to make me believe he's the guy they got right.

 

You must not be paying attention to him then.

[Marty34]

You must not be paying attention to him then.

 

So you are willing to go on record and say they got it right with Thompson?

[ChiSox_Sonix]

So you are willing to go on record and say they got it right with Thompson?

 

At this point? No, that would be as stupid as going on record and saying they didn't.

 

Making a judgement on a 21 year old player in AA who came into the organization out of high school is silly, whatever your opinion on him is.

Edited August 22, 2012 by ChiSox_Sonix

[Marty34]

At this point? No, that would be as stupid as going on record and saying they didn't.

 

Making a judgement on a 21 year old player in AA who came into the organization out of high school is silly, whatever your opinion on him is.

 

When will you go on record? You prospect guys slay me, take a stand.

[ChiSox_Sonix]

When will you go on record? You prospect guys slay me, take a stand.

 

Take a stand on what? He's 21 years old. How many players have definitively defined their careers by then? He's not Mike Trout. There, that's my stand on it.

 

It must be enjoyable screaming negatives constantly from your little mountain top.

[NorthSideSox72]

When will you go on record? You prospect guys slay me, take a stand.

 

And that is where you make it clear you don't get how this part of baseball works. Excluding maybe a half dozen guys among ALL teams who are nearly sure things at any given time... and excluding the minor league bench filler guys who are 100% sure not to make the majors... everyone else in between, by nature, is a percentage game. There is no "take a stand".

 

And you guys who keep saying, well, Thompson is a failure because previous players have been failures... on what planet does that logic make any sense? The development guys under KW have pretty much entirely turned over in the past few years. Drawing any conclusions at all from anything pre-2009 to today, in terms of how players will develop, is groundless.

 

[Marty34]

Take a stand on what? He's 21 years old. How many players have definitively defined their careers by then? He's not Mike Trout. There, that's my stand on it.

 

It must be enjoyable screaming negatives constantly from your little mountain top.

 

The most likely outcome for ANY prospect is to fail. I don't understand the optimism for Thompson given his K rate and the Sox track record for developing hitters. If that's negative so be it.