Cali Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I looked back on the Sox record all season after a series loss to either KC or Detroit (aka most of them) and found an interesting trend in the first series after: (Side note: two times in the season they played KC and Detroit back-to-back so I combined them, both losses --what new?) In 7 series post-loss the Sox won 5, split 2, and lost ZERO. 3 or those series were sweeps. Their record combined in those 7 series' : 16-5 Ironically in the 2 series the Sox did win vs. KC and Detroit both times they lost the next series. 3 out of 4 (Boston and Baltimore) So again... I'm feeling pretty good right now. They've been dominated by 2 rivals and have remained in first place most of the year. It's a symptom of the Central but ill take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) I'm sick of people saying "not beating KC will be the reason we lost this division" if we end up second. We're 5-13 against KC and done with them (and Detroit), and we're 2 games up in the division. If you want to cherry pick the 18 KC games out of the schedule, you'd have to change every other result as well, because after certain losing streaks/games the team got up/down for the next one. It's akin to saying "if we had that hit he would have scored". You can't cherry pick like that. Maybe if we won 2/3 in the trip to KC we have a let down somewhere else. This season will be won/lost @Anaheim, vs. TB/Cle and @Cle. Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 11:28 AM) I'm sick of people saying "not beating KC will be the reason we lost this division" if we end up second. We're 5-13 against KC and done with them (and Detroit), and we're 2 games up in the division. If you want to cherry pick the 18 KC games out of the schedule, you'd have to change every other result as well, because after certain losing streaks/games the team got up/down for the next one. It's akin to saying "if we had that hit he would have scored". You can't cherry pick like that. Maybe if we won 2/3 in the trip to KC we have a let down somewhere else. This season will be won/lost @Anaheim, vs. TB/Cle and @Cle. Sox went 6-12 against the Tigers and Royals. If they lose the division, of course it has a lot to do with losing to these teams. They shouldn't HAVE to go to Anaheim in late September and win 2 of 3. They shouldn't HAVE to beat the Rays 3 of 4 if the Tigers sweep the Twins and/or Royals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 09:28 AM) I'm sick of people saying "not beating KC will be the reason we lost this division" if we end up second. We're 5-13 against KC and done with them (and Detroit), and we're 2 games up in the division. If you want to cherry pick the 18 KC games out of the schedule, you'd have to change every other result as well, because after certain losing streaks/games the team got up/down for the next one. It's akin to saying "if we had that hit he would have scored". You can't cherry pick like that. Maybe if we won 2/3 in the trip to KC we have a let down somewhere else. This season will be won/lost @Anaheim, vs. TB/Cle and @Cle. Completely agree. The sox have played well against the West this season and against the Angels in recent years. Cleveland is awful and the Sox have taken care of business against them the last few years and Tampa might be eliminated by the time that series comes up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 11:45 AM) Sox went 6-12 against the Tigers and Royals. If they lose the division, of course it has a lot to do with losing to these teams. No, it doesn't. Changing those results changes every other result in the season as well. They completely control their own destiny and the only teams standing in their way are not named the Royals or the Tigers. Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 btw Cali I also feel pretty good. I don't think Detroit will go better than 9-4 and I like our chances to go 8-5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 11:59 AM) No, it doesn't. Changing those results changes every other result in the season as well. They completely control their own destiny and the only teams standing in their way are not named the Royals or the Tigers. Maybe you can say, the Sox went 14-4 against the Twins and 6-12 against the Royals, and that's baseball. Stuff happens. When it comes to a division where high-80's wins it, and you go 6-12 against that team, you pretty much blew it by losing to them. When I set up the Division thread (Road to 91 wins), I had the Tigers winning two more games than the Sox in the final 13 games. So right now I have them both going 88-74. Hopefully the Twins and Royals help us out, and the Sox win tonight. But I don't think the entire season is all about how they play these final two weeks. It's a collective thing, but how you play against teams in your division, particularly the one chasing you or ahead of you does matter because they're twice as important as the rest of the games. Edited September 21, 2012 by flavum Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (flavum @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 12:13 PM) Maybe you can say, the Sox went 14-4 against the Twins and 6-12 against the Royals, and that's baseball. Stuff happens. When it comes to a division where high-80's wins it, and you go 6-12 against that team, you pretty much blew it by losing to them. When I set up the Division thread (Road to 91 wins), I had the Tigers winning two more games than the Sox in the final 13 games. So right now I have them both going 88-74. Hopefully the Twins and Royals help us out, and the Sox win tonight. But I don't think the entire season is all about how they play these final two weeks. It's a collective thing, but how you play against teams in your division, particularly the one chasing you or ahead of you does matter because they're twice as important as the rest of the games. With respect to the division, Id' say playing over .500 is the desired result, and we will play well over .500 if we handle the Indians. In fact, we'll have a winning percentage that hopefully nearly mirrors our overall winning percentage. Divisional opponents see you more often, are more familiar with your strengths and weaknesses and generally play you tougher. Is it surprising that one or two of them would disproportionately handle you better? Not to me. Every year this happens with one team or another. Some say the '03 Tigers were allegedly responsible for us being in the position we were in that year by going 7-11 against us despite a 43 win season. I prefer to say that it was the final 5 games against the Twins that we lost. The Twins for years owned us. It's the nature of divisional play. We're 34-32 and I expect us to be 38-34 at season's end. A .530 divisional record is perfectly acceptable. There are examples of teams who are contenders who do great against their division, examples of teams that will fall short and struggled against divisional teams, but also examples of teams who struggled and it doesn't matter (Texas, Oakland, for example). I agree and disagree. It's about how you play for the entire year for every team - except the ones who control their own destiny in a playoff race in late September. For those teams, it comes down to the final few games where that team controls their own destiny. I don't see how anyone could have any other perspective. If the Sox win an above average number of divisional games they'll win their division. Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melissa1334 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 11:28 AM) I'm sick of people saying "not beating KC will be the reason we lost this division" if we end up second. We're 5-13 against KC and done with them (and Detroit), and we're 2 games up in the division. If you want to cherry pick the 18 KC games out of the schedule, you'd have to change every other result as well, because after certain losing streaks/games the team got up/down for the next one. It's akin to saying "if we had that hit he would have scored". You can't cherry pick like that. Maybe if we won 2/3 in the trip to KC we have a let down somewhere else. This season will be won/lost @Anaheim, vs. TB/Cle and @Cle. such as losing to travis wood/cubs 2-1 , losing the series to the astros, etc, plenty of other games we should have won Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) I wonder if people look at our schedule and also say "well, there's a game we should have lost but didn't" with the same zeal I guess we're too busy with the "worst. 2 game lead. ever." rhetoric Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dick Allen Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 On the bright side if first place isn't bright enough for you, if the Sox make the playoffs, and I think they will, Detroit and KC are 2 teams they won't have to face. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LittleHurt05 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 12:49 PM) I wonder if people look at our schedule and also say "well, there's a game we should have lost but didn't" with the same zeal I guess we're too busy with the "worst. 2 game lead. ever." rhetoric I don't think the Sox should have gone 11-5 vs. Texas & the Yankees, so we should probably give a few of those games back, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 The inability to beat KC & Detroit (and Baltimore also) pretty much removes that "resiliency" tag that has been on the team most of the year. And yes, it's true that everyone is 0-0 when postseason play starts, but given the way we can enter a series we're supposed to win already mentally defeated, does anyone really believe these guys can come back from an 0-1 deficit in the ALDS, or even win a second game after taking the first? This club is much more 2008 back-into-the-playoffs Sox than 2005 great baseball team Sox, and the Sox play under pressure shows it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 12:59 PM) The inability to beat KC & Detroit (and Baltimore also) pretty much removes that "resiliency" tag that has been on the team most of the year. And yes, it's true that everyone is 0-0 when postseason play starts, but given the way we can enter a series we're supposed to win already mentally defeated, does anyone really believe these guys can come back from an 0-1 deficit in the ALDS, or even win a second game after taking the first? This club is much more 2008 back-into-the-playoffs Sox than 2005 great baseball team Sox, and the Sox play under pressure shows it. You mean under the pressure, for example, to win the last game of the year against Detroit? You mean the '05 team that let a 15 game divisional lead dwindle down to a point that game 159 was still meaningful? I think people forget that the '05 team was exactly 1 game over .500 in August and September combined. This White Sox team is 3 games over .500 since August 1st - and likely to be 5-6 games over at season's end for the last two months. I can't remember a team I can say that about. Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 12:53 PM) I don't think the Sox should have gone 11-5 vs. Texas & the Yankees, so we should probably give a few of those games back, right? The Sox are great at playing on a high. All good teams are supposed to be that way & even a lot of bad teams are like that. The problem is we have trouble coming back from the lows, and when the pressure is on it it's even worse. You always hear Hawk talk about how important it is for baseball players to have a short memory & not to take their gloves to the plate or bats to the field; we seem to take the events of a past series with us, and when we get in a tough spot, we can't relax and so we try to do too much. Perfect example was last night. We won 5 in a row and then drop a game to KC. Last night we had the chance to take the series & start a new streak while picking back up that game the Tigers took. KC only scored 4 runs all game & they gave us 3. That's only 2 runs we need to score on our own to win, and we can't do it. Now, instead of heading into Anaheim to play a tough, extremely talented team on the road on a high, we have to right the ship there. That's the sign of a fading team, it's just that Detroit is also fading, and if you're an honest outside observer, neither team should be good enough to force either the Yankees or Baltimore to play a WC game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:04 PM) You mean under the pressure, for example, to win the last game of the year against Detroit? You mean the '05 team that let a 15 game divisional lead dwindle down to a point that game 159 was still meaningful? I think people forget that the '05 team was exactly 1 game over .500 in August and September combined. This White Sox team is 3 games over .500 since August 1st. Cleveland played out of their minds, the Sox never faded. We won 99 games that year. This year we'll be lucky to win 88. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:09 PM) The Sox are great at playing on a high. All good teams are supposed to be that way & even a lot of bad teams are like that. The problem is we have trouble coming back from the lows, and when the pressure is on it it's even worse. You always hear Hawk talk about how important it is for baseball players to have a short memory & not to take their gloves to the plate or bats to the field; we seem to take the events of a past series with us, and when we get in a tough spot, we can't relax and so we try to do too much. Perfect example was last night. We won 5 in a row and then drop a game to KC. Last night we had the chance to take the series & start a new streak while picking back up that game the Tigers took. KC only scored 4 runs all game & they gave us 3. That's only 2 runs we need to score on our own to win, and we can't do it. Now, instead of heading into Anaheim to play a tough, extremely talented team on the road on a high, we have to right the ship there. That's the sign of a fading team, it's just that Detroit is also fading, and if you're an honest outside observer, neither team should be good enough to force either the Yankees or Baltimore to play a WC game. Let me get this straight. This team just had a 5 game winning streak against three different divisional opponents, featuring 4 road games and zero days off... and losing two road games in a row to a divisional team directly after that is a sign of a "fading team"? Whatever, man. I guess nothing can convince you otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:12 PM) Cleveland played out of their minds, the Sox never faded. We won 99 games that year. This year we'll be lucky to win 88. Um, that's delusional. The Sox nearly choked the division away. We were on pace to win a lot more than 99. I remember the atmosphere on this board quite well. Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 I'm sorry, I'm just not going to feel badly about a week with zero days off where we went 5-2 with 6 road games, and the only home game being a crucial win against detroit. That's just flat out insane. I chalked up two road losses to the royals before the series. I think we win the series 2-1 in anaheim, go 4-3 at home and 2-1 in cleveland. 8-5, baby. Just do it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali Posted September 21, 2012 Author Share Posted September 21, 2012 Also my memory might be hazy, but in my mind down he stretch the '05 Sox played like crap against possible playoffs opponents like the Yankees/Red Sox and I thought "well this will be a quick exit from the playoffs." But I could be wrong... Someone let me know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 16-12 in August 9-9 in September That's 4 over .500 since July, which IMO says more bad about the Tigers than good about us Since our last 6 game win streak Aug 20-26 we lost 3 of 4 to Baltimore, went 2-5 against the Tigers and 2-4 against the Royals. The only thing we've done right is go 5-1 vs. the Twins over that span. But yeah, great team here. I guess I'm just a pessimist. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flavum Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 If the Sox come up short, I'm going to look at the collective choke of not being able to go 25-20 the final 45 games for 90 wins. So, go 9-4 and we're all good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Hibbard Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:24 PM) 16-12 in August 9-9 in September That's 4 over .500 since July, which IMO says more bad about the Tigers than good about us Since our last 6 game win streak Aug 20-26 we lost 3 of 4 to Baltimore, went 2-5 against the Tigers and 2-4 against the Royals. The only thing we've done right is go 5-1 vs. the Twins over that span. But yeah, great team here. I guess I'm just a pessimist. prior to August 56-47 = .543 winning percentage August 1st on 25-21 = .543 winning percentage .543 winning percentage = 88 win season. Exactly what drop off is there from whatever you expected I also like the way you conveniently disregard some sort of dropoff/statistical correction to variance after a 6 game winning streak Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ultimate Champion Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:17 PM) Um, that's delusional. The Sox nearly choked the division away. We were on pace to win a lot more than 99. I remember the atmosphere on this board quite well. Yeah like it's normal for teams to have 110 win seasons. Sox had one bad month where they went 12-16 in August. They played 7 over ball from September on. Cleveland played 38-16 ball through August & September. The Sox had one 7-game losing streak in August that hurt their record. They didn't choke, they cooled off, and Cleveland turned it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyyle23 Posted September 21, 2012 Share Posted September 21, 2012 QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 21, 2012 -> 01:41 PM) Yeah like it's normal for teams to have 110 win seasons. Sox had one bad month where they went 12-16 in August. They played 7 over ball from September on. Cleveland played 38-16 ball through August & September. The Sox had one 7-game losing streak in August that hurt their record. They didn't choke, they cooled off, and Cleveland turned it up. a 15 game lead to a 1 1/2 game lead, with one fly ball in the sun away from a 1/2 game lead was a pretty big choke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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