So they can't beat KC and Detroit...

[Greg Hibbard]

If the Sox come up short, I'm going to look at the collective choke of not being able to go 25-20 the final 45 games for 90 wins.

 

So, go 9-4 and we're all good.

 

Because the preceding 16-7 stretch before the final 45 didn't overvalue this team at all, right?

 

The final 45 games of the Sox' schedule also features 21 games against teams that are as of today 10 or more games over .500.

 

Of the other 24 games, 12 of them are on the road. Of the 12 home games against teams that are not 10 or more games over .500, 9 of them are against divisional opponents.

 

They also have 3 days off in the last 48 days of the season - one of which was a rainout where they were at the ballpark waiting all night.

 

How many easy games do you think this team has really had, recently?

 

Are we also gonna blame De Aza, Dunn and Konerko for being injured while we're at it

Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[greg775]

I'm sick of people saying "not beating KC will be the reason we lost this division" if we end up second.

 

We're 5-13 against KC and done with them (and Detroit), and we're 2 games up in the division.

 

If you want to cherry pick the 18 KC games out of the schedule, you'd have to change every other result as well, because after certain losing streaks/games the team got up/down for the next one. It's akin to saying "if we had that hit he would have scored". You can't cherry pick like that. Maybe if we won 2/3 in the trip to KC we have a let down somewhere else.

 

This season will be won/lost @Anaheim, vs. TB/Cle and @Cle.

 

There's one problem with your theory. With your theory a team can never have a great year, that it all balances out and the team finishes 8-10 games over .500. No, to have a playoff caliber team you have to do better than 5-13 against one of the worst franchises in baseball the last 20 years. You don't win every series, but you have to do better than that against division rivals to have a team worthy of the playoffs.

[Jake]

In the world in which we always beat the teams that are worse than us, we probably also lose all the games against teams that are better than us.

[Greg Hibbard]

There's one problem with your theory. With your theory a team can never have a great year, that it all balances out and the team finishes 8-10 games over .500. No, to have a playoff caliber team you have to do better than 5-13 against one of the worst franchises in baseball the last 20 years. You don't win every series, but you have to do better than that against division rivals to have a team worthy of the playoffs.

 

Just like Texas and Oakland, right?

[greg775]

The Sox are great at playing on a high. All good teams are supposed to be that way & even a lot of bad teams are like that. The problem is we have trouble coming back from the lows, and when the pressure is on it it's even worse. You always hear Hawk talk about how important it is for baseball players to have a short memory & not to take their gloves to the plate or bats to the field; we seem to take the events of a past series with us, and when we get in a tough spot, we can't relax and so we try to do too much.

 

Perfect example was last night. We won 5 in a row and then drop a game to KC. Last night we had the chance to take the series & start a new streak while picking back up that game the Tigers took. KC only scored 4 runs all game & they gave us 3. That's only 2 runs we need to score on our own to win, and we can't do it. Now, instead of heading into Anaheim to play a tough, extremely talented team on the road on a high, we have to right the ship there. That's the sign of a fading team, it's just that Detroit is also fading, and if you're an honest outside observer, neither team should be good enough to force either the Yankees or Baltimore to play a WC game.

 

 

Just like Texas and Oakland, right?

 

That first post seems rock solid to me.

 

As far as my responses to Hibbard ...

I'm basing this on actually having a very good season. To have a very good season you have to hold your own against the Texas and Oakland's but you simply must combine that with .500 ball at the worst against the pathetic teams, the Kansas City's. 5-13 signifies a huge problem toward having a playoff caliber season.

Now I could look at this season two ways. 1.) I have no problem conceding the playoffs and saying Robin still deserves manager of the year for keeping an injury-decimated team in contention all year, playing meaningful games all year. I could say the horrific record vs. KC shows we're not that good and Robin is a brilliant leader in keeping us in the race at all. Tons of injuries make our record a successful one no matter what, really.

 

2.) The other way to look at it is we got career years out of AJ, Rios and Dunn and step-up, excellent fill in performances from a batch of pitchers that had us right there 8-12 games over .500 most of the way, taking advantage of a pathetic season by runaway favorite Detroit. But because of unacceptable play against KC and inability to play .500 ball vs. KC and Detroit, we blew an opporunity to win the division. I have no problem with scenario No. 1, but I was hopeful we'd make the playoffs. Sox still can make them, but the odds are against them looking at comparative schedules IMO.

 

To make it clear, I have no problem with Robin being named manager of the year because of all the injuries.

Edited September 21, 2012 by greg775

[Greg Hibbard]

You know what guys

 

Sox are gonna win 87, 88 or 89 games.

 

I'm confident Detroit will win either 1 or 2 games less.

 

If you don't believe it, don't worry, I got this one.

[Princess Dye]

Sox are good, not amazing. Get into the playoffs and it's chaotic enough where any team has a chance. That's basically all one has to visualize.

[Greg Hibbard]

Greg, my point was that Oakland and Texas cannot handle their own divisions either.

[greg775]

You know what guys

 

Sox are gonna win 87, 88 or 89 games.

 

I'm confident Detroit will win either 1 or 2 games less.

 

If you don't believe it, don't worry, I got this one.

 

That would be nice. I don't want a playoff vs. Detroit. I really don't want to lead the division almost all season and not complete the deal.

[flavum]

Because the preceding 16-7 stretch before the final 45 didn't overvalue this team at all, right?

 

The final 45 games of the Sox' schedule also features 21 games against teams that are as of today 10 or more games over .500.

 

Of the other 24 games, 12 of them are on the road. Of the 12 home games against teams that are not 10 or more games over .500, 9 of them are against divisional opponents.

 

They also have 3 days off in the last 48 days of the season - one of which was a rainout where they were at the ballpark waiting all night.

 

How many easy games do you think this team has really had, recently?

 

Are we also gonna blame De Aza, Dunn and Konerko for being injured while we're at it

 

A team that wins its division, unless they had a huge lead to work with, should be able to go 25-20 in its last 45 games, largely weighted by division games. And not just division games--games against teams from a weak division. Good teams win. Bad teams lose. Slightly better than mediocre teams like the White Sox should be able to 25-20 down the stretch. Hell, 24-21 should have been good enough, and they may not even do that.

 

What are we arguing here again? How it's not the Sox fault if they don't win the division?

[Greg Hibbard]

A team that wins its division, unless they had a huge lead to work with, should be able to go 25-20 in its last 45 games, largely weighted by division games. And not just division games--games against teams from a weak division. Good teams win. Bad teams lose. Slightly better than mediocre teams like the White Sox should be able to 25-20 down the stretch. Hell, 24-21 should have been good enough, and they may not even do that.

 

What are we arguing here again? How it's not the Sox fault if they don't win the division?

 

I think my main point is that the Sox have been fairly consistent and so are the Tigers, and the teams are who they are.

 

I don't really expect either team to do anything differently than they've done it for the first 149 games of the season

 

I really dont get why anyone thinks the tigers are going to go on some unrealistic tear AND the sox are gonna swoon

[The Ultimate Champion]

prior to August

 

56-47 = .543 winning percentage

 

August 1st on

 

25-21 = .543 winning percentage

 

.543 winning percentage = 88 win season.

 

Exactly what drop off is there from whatever you expected

 

I also like the way you conveniently disregard some sort of dropoff/statistical correction to variance after a 6 game winning streak

If your point is that this team isn't fading because they're still on track for the playoffs then I disagree. They beat a team that they've destroyed all year, a bad team that has rolled over for us time and again. When facing good teams in tight situations we haven't been able to get it done in weeks. Sale & Quintana need the rest, and with rosters expanded now would be a great time to set the playoff roster. The Tigers have pretty much done everything they can to give us a comfortable lead and we can't take it. We've been playing like crap under pressure. Play under pressure vs. quality opposition is much more indicative of team quality than just record, and at this point I really don't care about winning the division, I expect it, I want a team that is going to do something in the playoffs. These guys are faders until they prove they're not. Finish very strong & I'll feel good about this team, but right now these guys have no gumption, no sac, no nuts, no nothing.

[flavum]

I think my main point is that the Sox have been fairly consistent and so are the Tigers, and the teams are who they are.

 

I don't really expect either team to do anything differently than they've done it for the first 149 games of the season

 

I really dont get why anyone thinks the tigers are going to go on some unrealistic tear AND the sox are gonna swoon

 

Is it unrealistic to think that against the competition both teams are playing over these last four series, that the Tigers could go 8-5 and the Sox could go 5-8, and the Tigers take it with 87 wins? Could happen. Might not. Nothing will surprise me these next two weeks, but by no means do I think the Sox have this even close to locked up.

[Greg Hibbard]

Ultimate - I don't know at what point in this season you thought the sox were some sort of world beaters, but I never really drank that kool aid. They've been streaky all year - not as great as their 16-4 runs but obviously not as bad as their 3-11 runs either.

 

I never thought this team had what it took to compete with New York and Texas, in particular, even though we've handled them head to head all year.

 

However, I do feel a division title would be a nice thing and playoff revenue would be even better, would set up next year as an improvement to the attendance and further sell the sox as the legitimate baseball team in this city, which I feel is somewhat crucial. I feel as though the past 8 years or so the Sox have made great strides compared to the cubs in generating interest in young fans/kids, as the cubs just keep treading water when they're good and bumbling toward disaster when they're bad.

Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[Greg Hibbard]

Is it unrealistic to think that against the competition both teams are playing over these last four series, that the Tigers could go 8-5 and the Sox could go 5-8, and the Tigers take it with 87 wins? Could happen. Might not. Nothing will surprise me these next two weeks, but by no means do I think the Sox have this even close to locked up.

 

Do I think the sox are going to go just 3-3 against the Indians, get swept in Anaheim, AND merely split against the fading rays at the Cell, where they are much better and the Rays are much worse?

 

No, no I don't.

Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[cabiness42]

Is it unrealistic to think that against the competition both teams are playing over these last four series, that the Tigers could go 8-5 and the Sox could go 5-8, and the Tigers take it with 87 wins? Could happen. Might not. Nothing will surprise me these next two weeks, but by no means do I think the Sox have this even close to locked up.

 

Yes, it's pretty unrealistic for the Sox to win less than 6 games when they have 6 with Cleveland and 4 with Tampa Bay at home.

 

[Greg Hibbard]

If the Sox win even one game at Anaheim its a crushing blow for detroits chances IMO

 

Two or three wins in LA locks this thing up

Edited September 21, 2012 by Greg Hibbard

[The Ultimate Champion]

Ultimate - I don't know at what point in this season you thought the sox were some sort of world beaters, but I never really drank that kool aid. They've been streaky all year - not as great as their 16-4 runs but obviously not as bad as their 3-11 runs either.

 

I never thought this team had what it took to compete with New York and Texas, in particular, even though we've handled them head to head all year.

 

However, I do feel a division title would be a nice thing and playoff revenue would be even better, would set up next year as an improvement to the attendance and further sell the sox as the legitimate baseball team in this city, which I feel is somewhat crucial. I feel as though the past 8 years or so the Sox have made great strides compared to the cubs in generating interest in young fans/kids, as the cubs just keep treading water when they're good and bumbling toward disaster when they're bad.

I agree that a division title is a big plus for this organization ATM no matter what the circumstances are.

 

Here's what gets me: earlier this season (and well through July) this team, at least to me, had the feel of something special. I'll liken it to a magic potion by a wizard, in that you (as KW) put on a sparkly hat adorned with little stars, grab some toads feet and dragons blood and lizard tongue and so on and you just starting mixing this crap together. KW is like an alchemist with really no idea WTF he's mixing (grab a vet here, a rookie there, a minor league A-baller here, a potential washed-up veteran there, etc.) but he just mixes this stuff together in his big cauldron, year after year, without rhyme or reason, allthewhile hoping for gold. This year I thought he had maybe found that gold, that magic mix that fails horribly 95% of the time but, every blue moon, creates something special. I have that feeling about Baltimore & Washington this year, and it's a feeling I had about the Sox. I **expect** a division title this year simply because the Tigers aren't good enough to get there, but what I **want** as a fan is another feel good season capped by a legitimate run in the playoffs. What made that '05 team so special, and what made us so special earlier on, was that we'd end those bad feelings & get on a good roll. We can't do that anymore. We almost did, ending the Tigers part of the season with a nice win in a playoff type atmosphere, and then back it up with a win in KC, but instead of winning that series and putting all that bad behind us, we go and give another game away. That's the sign of a nothing special playoff team. I think we can be better than that & that's what is driving me crazy. I don't want to just take a division title the Tigers gave us, I want us to win it on our own, and then carry some momentum into the postseason.

 

End rant.

[Greg Hibbard]

Ultimate - the one thing I'd say in response is that if the sox lose another game or two this weekend, that these are the easiest games remaining for Detroit and the toughest by far for the sox

[Cali]

So if we're all in agreement that the records against KC and Detroit show this team has certain mental handicaps and after all that they are STILL in first and STILL control their destiny, if they make the playoffs wouldn't the 11-4 record against the Yankees and Texas being a mental advantage? I'd take that trade any day of the week.

 

Or does certain records against certain teams only work if its a negative?

[LittleHurt05]

So if we're all in agreement that the records against KC and Detroit show this team has certain mental handicaps and after all that they are STILL in first and STILL control their destiny, if they make the playoffs wouldn't the 11-4 record against the Yankees and Texas being a mental advantage? I'd take that trade any day of the week.

 

Or does certain records against certain teams only work if its a negative?

 

Welcome to Soxtalk. When it comes to the White Sox, there only are negatives.

[southsider2k5]

This is a completely circular thread with no right answer.

[nickofypres]

In the second half team is 27-12 vs non Royals or Tigers teams.

 

I'm not as worried as I was.

[Cali]

This is a completely circular thread with no right answer.

 

Fun Police

[The Ultimate Champion]

So if we're all in agreement that the records against KC and Detroit show this team has certain mental handicaps and after all that they are STILL in first and STILL control their destiny, if they make the playoffs wouldn't the 11-4 record against the Yankees and Texas being a mental advantage? I'd take that trade any day of the week.

 

Or does certain records against certain teams only work if its a negative?

I think that helps a TON in Game 1.

 

What worries me is Game 2, if Game 1 doesn't go they way they'd like it to.

 

I also think it's great if you're in the 2nd inning down 1-2 runs, but it's a bad thing if you're in a tie game in the 7th with runners on 2nd & 3rd with 1 out, and you're at the plate but the momentum is on the other side.

 

AJ said earlier in an interview that there are no more moral victories, all that matters now are wins and losses. I disagree. There are definitely moral victories & the Sox own play indicates that. I mean, there must be moral victories if there are morally devastating losses, right?

 

The one big positive going forward is that we are done with KC, Detroit, and Baltimore. A very strong finish that includes good baseball through and through with minimal mental mistakes by both our players and coaching staff could get us on the right kind of roll we need to be on to have success in the postseason.