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On Base Percentage f***ing Matters


cabiness42

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On a scale of 1 to 10 on defending Kenny Williams, with 1 being Greg, I generally rate about a 9. I generally think KW has done a good job with what he's had to work with. I think his moves involving pitchers have been especially good.

 

His epic failure is in putting together a lineup that works. I don't mean the manager's job of making out the lineup card, I mean the job of getting 9 position players who can be arranged into an effective lineup.

 

A free-swinging, low OBP, decent SLG, good glove player isn't by himself a bad thing, but the last 10 days are the prime example of why having a lot of them is a terrible idea. Guys with low OBP are either not good at working walks, not good at slapping a good pitcher's pitch the other way for a single, or both. They don't have the skill to find a way to get on base when that's what is really needed. They strike out a lot and hit lots of popups, which isn't a good thing when they are batting with the bases loaded. They fall victim to no-name, no-stuff pitchers who have ERAs that begin with 5.

 

Alexei Ramirez is never going to have a good OBP.

Dayan Viciedo is never going to have a good OBP.

Beckham had a very good OBP his rookie season but hasn't been close since.

AJ Pierzynski and Alex Rios had career years and their OBPs are still only in the .320s, which is decent but not great.

 

Dunn rebounded to have a .338 OBP which is good for most guys but nowhere near Dunn-like.

 

Three guys have had a good year at getting on base: De Aza (.350), Youkilis (.354 with Sox), and Konerko (.371)

 

This lineup needs a major overhaul, but not in the way I expect most people think. Youkilis needs to be back, and if paying his $13M option is the only way to do it, then do it. You can't afford to get rid of a .354 OBP from a team that is sorely lacking in OBP.

 

From the block of Rios-AJ-Viciedo-Ramirez-Beckham, at least two of the five need to be gone. It won't be an easy decision to make: Rios and AJ just had career years, Viciedo is cheap with tons of upside, Ramirez and Beckham provide gold glove defense. I don't know the trade value of each player and who is available to replace them, so I can't really say which two need to go, but the reality remains that this team is not going to win a championship with all five of them in the lineup.

 

Also, it isn't that KW hasn't tried to get guys with the needed OBP. He did get Swisher and Quentin, but for reasons of chemistry and recurring injury, those guys didn't work out.

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If a decent offer came for Rios, he'd be gone in a second if I was in charge. Too much salary, and history shows he'll regress big time next year. I'd then slide De Aza to left, Viciedo to right, and go after another CF if I didn't get one in return.

 

 

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 09:29 AM)
Are there really? I'm not certain of that. Please let me know who is available to provide that kind of OBP for less.

 

Ok, lets say you're right for a second - couldn't you get two .340 OBP guys for 13 million combined?

 

I mean, IIRC Juan Pierre still has an OBP around .340.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 07:26 AM)
This lineup needs a major overhaul, but not in the way I expect most people think. Youkilis needs to be back, and if paying his $13M option is the only way to do it, then do it. You can't afford to get rid of a .354 OBP from a team that is sorely lacking in OBP.

I think Youkilis is in permanent decline and his best days are way behind him. No way I would pay $13 million for just one season of him now. $13 million is what All-Stars get paid and he most definitely is not an All-Star anymore.

 

Plus, even though his OBP is good his BA sucks hard. He's only hitting .230. We need some balance between batting average and OBP.

 

He's not that good defensively at 3B either.

 

Figuring out an answer to 3B has to be one of Kenny's priorities for 2013. I sincerely doubt that he's going to pick up Youkilis' option.

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We need more hit for average contact players. All these guys swinging for the fences is absolutely pathethic. There are only two players that should be doing that at this point and that's Dunn and Konerko if the man can ever find his power.

 

Yeah, a couple guys whose .350 OBP is driven by a .290-.300 BA would be nice, but at this point, any way the OBP adds up to .350 is better than nothing.

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QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 07:26 AM)
On a scale of 1 to 10 on defending Kenny Williams, with 1 being Greg, I generally rate about a 9. I generally think KW has done a good job with what he's had to work with. I think his moves involving pitchers have been especially good.

 

His epic failure is in putting together a lineup that works. I don't mean the manager's job of making out the lineup card, I mean the job of getting 9 position players who can be arranged into an effective lineup.

 

A free-swinging, low OBP, decent SLG, good glove player isn't by himself a bad thing, but the last 10 days are the prime example of why having a lot of them is a terrible idea. Guys with low OBP are either not good at working walks, not good at slapping a good pitcher's pitch the other way for a single, or both. They don't have the skill to find a way to get on base when that's what is really needed. They strike out a lot and hit lots of popups, which isn't a good thing when they are batting with the bases loaded. They fall victim to no-name, no-stuff pitchers who have ERAs that begin with 5.

 

Alexei Ramirez is never going to have a good OBP.

Dayan Viciedo is never going to have a good OBP.

Beckham had a very good OBP his rookie season but hasn't been close since.

AJ Pierzynski and Alex Rios had career years and their OBPs are still only in the .320s, which is decent but not great.

 

Dunn rebounded to have a .338 OBP which is good for most guys but nowhere near Dunn-like.

 

Three guys have had a good year at getting on base: De Aza (.350), Youkilis (.354 with Sox), and Konerko (.371)

 

This lineup needs a major overhaul, but not in the way I expect most people think. Youkilis needs to be back, and if paying his $13M option is the only way to do it, then do it. You can't afford to get rid of a .354 OBP from a team that is sorely lacking in OBP.

 

From the block of Rios-AJ-Viciedo-Ramirez-Beckham, at least two of the five need to be gone. It won't be an easy decision to make: Rios and AJ just had career years, Viciedo is cheap with tons of upside, Ramirez and Beckham provide gold glove defense. I don't know the trade value of each player and who is available to replace them, so I can't really say which two need to go, but the reality remains that this team is not going to win a championship with all five of them in the lineup.

 

Also, it isn't that KW hasn't tried to get guys with the needed OBP. He did get Swisher and Quentin, but for reasons of chemistry and recurring injury, those guys didn't work out.

 

What is Konerko's OBP since June 1? I know we have to look at numbers over a full season, but I do worry about his age/injuries. I don't see how he can bat #3 or #4 in next year's lineup unless the Sox are confident he can rebound from his injuries.

 

Good post - there are too many players who dont' get on base.

 

Rios is a guy who I think would make sense to move - however, can they get value in return considering his contract and his penchant for good/bad years? Would they have to eat money to move him?

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I don't get it...You give Kenny a rating of 9 out of 10, yet you cite, correctly so, a critical deficiency in the low OBP of the players Kenny selects.

Correct me if I am wrong but if putting together a team of players with the necessary skills to win, like OBP for example, why would you rate Williams so high?

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None of this would even be an issue if the White Sox hadn't collapsed hitting with RISP the last 6 weeks.

 

Actually, you could say hitting with runners on base has been a bigger problem than low OBP guys, as most of our runs have scored on solo homers.

 

We need "clutch" hitters (and we had plenty of them until we didn't, Alexei Ramirez being a prime example recently) who won't "choke" or tighten up suddenly when the season's on the line.

 

Or at least can hit against the Royals.

Edited by caulfield12
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None of this would even be an issue if the White Sox hadn't collapsed hitting with RISP the last 6 weeks.

 

Actually, you could say hitting with runners on base has been a bigger problem than low OBP guys, as most of our runs have scored on solo homers.

 

These are connected issues. High OBP guys are more likely to either get a hit or a walk with RISP. Someone like AJ, Tank, Alexei, and to a lesser extent Rios, is going to be more likely to strike out or pop up in any given at bat, even though they might be fairly productive over the long term.

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QUOTE (chisoxt @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 10:30 AM)
I don't get it...You give Kenny a rating of 9 out of 10, yet you cite, correctly so, a critical deficiency in the low OBP of the players Kenny selects.

Correct me if I am wrong but if putting together a team of players with the necessary skills to win, like OBP for example, why would you rate Williams so high?

He didn't rate Kenny at a 9. He said he defends Kenny at a 9. Basically, he was trying to set some back story for his post. "I usually defend Kenny, but...."

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The worst thing with this Sox lineup is that the 5-9 hitters don't have a hint of patience. Just loop at the OBPs...

 

Rios - .330

A.J. - .325

Viciedo - .295

Alexei - .290

Beckham - .295

 

Our 1-4 has the ability to draw a walk and get on base, but the rest of the lineup never does any of that.

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QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 09:50 AM)
We need more hit for average contact players. All these guys swinging for the fences is absolutely pathethic. There are only two players that should be doing that at this point and that's Dunn and Konerko if the man can ever find his power.

 

This was tried when we dumped guys like Thome-which led to signing Adam Dunn

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QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 02:32 PM)
Unless they trade for a 3B or they somehow get David Wright (which would be awesome) then Youk pretty much has to be back...There are literally no other starting 3B available.

Chase Headley please.

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QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 02:17 PM)
The worst thing with this Sox lineup is that the 5-9 hitters don't have a hint of patience. Just loop at the OBPs...

 

Rios - .330

A.J. - .325

Viciedo - .295

Alexei - .290

Beckham - .295

 

Our 1-4 has the ability to draw a walk and get on base, but the rest of the lineup never does any of that.

 

That's another problem too, this a huge reason why we have so many solo shots. Top of the order comes back on no one is on ahead of them mostly.

 

Its sad when in a game you can hit 3 home runs and still lose and only score 3 runs.

Edited by whitesox901
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QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 01:17 PM)
The worst thing with this Sox lineup is that the 5-9 hitters don't have a hint of patience. Just loop at the OBPs...

 

Rios - .330

A.J. - .325

Viciedo - .295

Alexei - .290

Beckham - .295

 

Our 1-4 has the ability to draw a walk and get on base, but the rest of the lineup never does any of that.

 

Rios and AJ are tolerable the next three, not so much.

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I'd hate to have to pick up Youk's option, because he isn't worth it, but I don't know if we could get another third baseman with similar production.

 

I guess you could bring back Morel and look for high OBP player for another position, but that means having to move guys around, etc.

 

 

I guess I hope they can work out a 2 year deal with Youk that is reasonable, but I doubt he sticks around if they decline his option.

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QUOTE (bigruss22 @ Sep 28, 2012 -> 03:53 PM)
Chase Headley please.

 

That certainly would be nice but I'm not sure SD would give him up....If they did wanna give him up maybe theyre still interested in Beckham and would want Tank to replace Will Turrable..I mean Venable....Plus maybe Q or Santiago and prospects

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