Your 2013 Plan for the White Sox

[NorthSideSox72]

These discussions are popping up in other threads, so, let's start a discussion here. What would be your plan, if you were the GM of the Sox?

 

I am going to make an ASSUMPTION here, that payroll will remain similar to last year (which started at about $98M, and ended around $104M).

 

OBLIGATED FOR 2013 BY CONTRACT (TOTAL: $72.25M):

Alex Rios: $12.5M

Adam Dunn: $15M

Paul Konerko: $13.5M

Jesse Crain: $4.5M

Matt Thornton; $5.5M

Alexei Ramirez: $7M

John Danks: $14.25M

 

CONTRACT OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS (TOTAL: $8M to $54.5M):

Jake Peavy: $22M TO or $4M BO

Kevin Youkilis: $13M TO or $1M BO (Boston sent money as salary offset, but buy-out is naked, I believe)

Gavin Floyd: $9.5M TO, no BO

Randy Myers: $10M TO or $3M BO (also a naked option I believe)

 

FREE AGENTS (NO OBLIGATION AGAINST):

Orlando Hudson

AJ Pierzynski

Francisco Liriano

Jose Lopez

Brian Bruney

Dewayne Wise

Dan Johnson

Ray Olmedo

Deunte Heath

 

ARB ELIGIBLE:

Phil Humber

Gordon Beckham

Alejandro De Aza

 

PRE-ARB:

Chris Sale

Brent Morel

Tyler Flowers

Nate Jones

Addison Reed

Hector Santiago

Dylan Axlerod

Jordan Danks

Hector Gimenez

Jhan Marinez

Brian Omogrosso

Jose Quintana

Leyson Septimo

Donnie Veal

 

--

 

So, you've got $72.25M under contract, and at least $8M more in obligations, taking you to $80.25M minimum. Let's assume that $100M is the ceiling.

 

Here is what I'd do...

 

OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS: Buy out Youkilis, Myers and Peavy, for $8M (so that puts the team at $80.25M at this point).

 

FREE AGENTS TO GO: Everyone in the above FA list, except AJP (to be addressed below)

 

DFA/RELEASE: Phil Humber, Leyson Septimo

 

OPTION TO MINORS: Brent Morel, Hector Gimenez, Leyson Septimo

 

PRE-ARB: Offer contracts to Sale, Flowers, Jones, Reed, Quintana, Santiago, Veal, Omogrosso, Marinez, JorDanks and Axelrod . All around half a million each, so that's $5M, taking the team to $85.25M

 

ARBITRATION: Keep De Aza and Beckham around. This is purely a guess, but I'm thinking Beckham will cost $2M, and De Aza $3M, for a total of $5M, putting the team at $89.75M. Might want to consider giving De Aza a multi-year deal to buy out Arb and a year or two of FA.

 

TRADE AWAY: Trade Matt Thornton. Probably will only get a mid-level prospect for him, but that's fine, as salary relief is the key factor here. That saves you $5.5M, so you go back down to $84.25M.

 

SIGN: AJP first, and I'm again guessing here, but I think you can get him (given his performance, but also his age at C, and his history making the FA market narrower) for a 2+1 year deal, at about $7M per. So that takes you to $91.25M.

 

I'd try to sign Wise to a cheap short deal for the OF, I think having that vet there has been a good thing. Can probably be had for $1M or less, call it $1M for now. That's $92.25M

 

The other two slots you now face dealing with are 3B (or 2B if beckham can be moved over), and possibly one SP (you already have Danks, Sale, Quintana and Santiago penciled in). With $10M to work with, unless you want to trade someone like Rios or a top flight prospect, you can really only get one or the other that is any good for that money. So you are either starting someone like Leesman/Axelrod/Shirek/Castro, or you are bringing up Carlos Sanchez. I would rather shore up pitching, and go with the latter. So, use the $10M or so to do one of the following: first try to sign Peavy to a $9M-$12M a year deal (which I think is ppossible, with his injury history), or second try to find the best FA out there at that level of money, or third take Floyd's option. All costing the same, all getting you to around $100M.

 

One hole to fill is the bench IF guy, not sure who that might be, but would be cheap.

 

--

 

That gives you a ~$100M roster as follows:

 

LINEUP:

De Aza, 8

Sanchez, 5

Rios, 9

Dunn, 0

PK14, 3

AJP, 2

Viciedo, 7

Ramirez, 6

Beckham, 4

 

BENCH:

JorDanks, OF

Wise, OF

Flowers, C

????, 3B-SS-2B

 

ROTATION:

Sale

Danks

Peavy/Floyd/Other

Quintana

Santiago

 

BULLPEN:

Reed CL/SU

Jones CL/SU

Crain SU

Omogrosso SU

Veal SPEC

Marinez SPEC

Axelrod LR

 

--

 

OTHER POSSIBILITIES: If you trade Rios, you can probably get something good back, but you also now have to start someone like Jordan Danks in the OF until Mitchell or Thompson or somoene else are ready, which is not right away (IMO). You can maybe trade Floyd and his option year, but then you still have a pitching hole to fill. You may also want to flip Sanchez and Beckham on the infield. THE ONLY WAY I'd TRADE RIOS, is if it can result in a significant help at 3B, directly or indirectly.

 

IF THERE IS MORE MONEY AVAILABLE: Then do something about 3B with it. That is the weak spot, with a 20 year old rookie playing there, who I'd rather see developing at AAA.

 

This is a very similar team to this year, except the youngsters have had time to stretch out and develop. Sanchez and a couple rotation slots are the biggest changes.

 

[The Ginger Kid]

Make a run at Greinke.

[fathom]

Trade for Matt Carpenter (STL) and put him at 3rd base

[Eminor3rd]

That's a realistic scenario, but that's a slightly worse team than this year.

[Wanne]

Not seeing Viciedo on the list...is he arb eligible?

 

Besides these guys...I'm open to deals for anybody on the roster (keeping De Aza)

 

Chris Sale

Nate Jones

Jose Quintana

Donnie Veal

[Brian]

Too.much.math

[Eminor3rd]

1. Decline Peavy's option, make qualifying offer, collect draft pick

 

2. Decline Floyd's option, no qualifying offer

 

3. Exercise Youkilis' option (Morel sucks and the next best FA 3B is Ronny Cedeno)

 

4. Let AJ walk if he wants a market-rate deal (no chance he repeats this year), re-sign if a hometown discount.

 

5. Let Liriano walk, no qualifying offer

 

6. Go hard for Greinke

 

7. Try to bring back Brett Myers on something affordable

 

---

 

1. Greinke

2. Sale

3. Danks

4. Quintana

5. Santiago

 

1. Reed ®

2. Thornton (L)

3. Myers ®

4. Veal/Septimo (L)

5. Jones ®

6. Crain ®

 

1. De Aza

2. Youkilis

3. Dunn

4. Konerko

5. Rios

6. Viciedo

7. Ramirez

8. Flowers

9. Beckham

 

Lose some dingers, gain a veteran, ace-type starter. The lineup still has big pop. We got lucky with the young pitching this year and can't expect it to repeat. I fear for Quintana, specifically. Reed will be better, though.

Edited October 2, 2012 by Eminor3rd

[NorthSideSox72]

That's a realistic scenario, but that's a slightly worse team than this year.

I was thinking it was better, but only a little. Kind of hard to find away to make it a lot better with the salary restrictions that I am guessing are there. Maybe they aren't, I don't really know.

 

Honestly, another $10M to sign or trade for a serious 3B could make the team I built there a lot better than this year's. I personally think the starting pitching could improve a lot, when guys like Sale and Quintana don't hit a wall, and Danks is healthy. If you have Peavy or Floyd in there, and Santiago replaces Liriano, that seems like an improvement overall. And the bullpen should be more mature, and better. Sanchez improves your defense.

 

The place you probably get worse though, is overall hitting replacing Youkilis/Hudson with Sanchez. Rios and AJ are likely to not have as good a year next year, but I think PK14, Beckham, Ramirez and Viciedo are all likely to do better for various reasons.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

Not seeing Viciedo on the list...is he arb eligible?

 

Besides these guys...I'm open to deals for anybody on the roster (keeping De Aza)

 

Chris Sale

Nate Jones

Jose Quintana

Donnie Veal

Viciedo actually reverts to pre-Arb, I believe, but I may have forgotten him on my list.

 

They may decide to give him a new deal too, hard to say.

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

Definitely traded:

Gavin Floyd

Jessie Crain

Matt Thornton

 

Nontender/trade:

Phil Humber

 

On the block & heavily shopped for very good prospects/young 1st year MLB players:

Alejandro DeAza

Alexei Ramirez

 

Heavily shopped as part of a deal for a team controllable, MLB-proven starting pitcher or starting position player:

Addison Reed

Hector Santiago

Trayce Thompson

 

Salary dump deal:

Adam Dunn

 

On the block for full salary relief + 1 good prospect/reclamation projects + 1 decent piece:

Paul Konerko

Alex Rios

 

Definitely core pieces:

Chris Sale

Dayan Viciedo

Gordon Beckham

Jose Quintana

Nate Jones

John Danks

Donnie Veal

Tyler Flowers (if AJ isn't back)

 

Try like hell to bring him back:

Brett Myers as a setup man on a 2-year deal (makes it easier to trade Crain, closer insurance)

Jake Peavy

 

See what they have/No point in trying to move for obvious reasons:

Leyson Septimo

Brian Omogrosso

Jhan Marinez

 

Major (youth) targets in any deal/through the Rule-5/MiLB FA:

Starting SS

Starting 3B

LH power hitter, wherever he plays

Contact-based OF with power + range, wherever he plays

 

I go into the offseason with this thinking process & see what I can get done. At the end, if I still have holes to fill that I kind fill with possible/probable 3-5 year window players, then I hunt for bargains on the FA market.

Edited October 2, 2012 by The Ultimate Champion

[fathom]

If you're going to trade nearly all of the veterans for prospects/young players, then there is no reason in the world to bring Peavy back.

[Eminor3rd]

I was thinking it was better, but only a little. Kind of hard to find away to make it a lot better with the salary restrictions that I am guessing are there. Maybe they aren't, I don't really know.

 

Honestly, another $10M to sign or trade for a serious 3B could make the team I built there a lot better than this year's. I personally think the starting pitching could improve a lot, when guys like Sale and Quintana don't hit a wall, and Danks is healthy. If you have Peavy or Floyd in there, and Santiago replaces Liriano, that seems like an improvement overall. And the bullpen should be more mature, and better. Sanchez improves your defense.

 

The place you probably get worse though, is overall hitting replacing Youkilis/Hudson with Sanchez. Rios and AJ are likely to not have as good a year next year, but I think PK14, Beckham, Ramirez and Viciedo are all likely to do better for various reasons.

 

Yeah, I'm just afraid that Quintana just flat out regresses. Sale will have more endurance though. I say you just keep Youkilis. I don't wanna pay $13m, but there's nothing better you can get for that money at the moment. Headley is about to get filthy rich.

 

But right, the salary restrictions are the problem. I like the idea of trading Rios at peak value (maybe to the Giants?), but you have to replace that value too, unless you go for prospects and go into the season projecting another 84-ish win season.

[Eminor3rd]

Definitely traded:

Gavin Floyd

Jessie Crain

Matt Thornton

 

Nontender/trade:

Phil Humber

 

On the block & heavily shopped for very good prospects/young 1st year MLB players:

Alejandro DeAza

Alexei Ramirez

 

Heavily shopped as part of a deal for a team controllable, MLB-proven starting pitcher or starting position player:

Addison Reed

Hector Santiago

Trayce Thompson

 

Salary dump deal:

Adam Dunn

 

On the block for full salary relief + 1 good prospect/reclamation projects + 1 decent piece:

Paul Konerko

Alex Rios

 

Definitely core pieces:

Chris Sale

Dayan Viciedo

Gordon Beckham

Jose Quintana

Nate Jones

John Danks

Donnie Veal

Tyler Flowers (if AJ isn't back)

 

Try like hell to bring him back:

Brett Myers as a setup man on a 2-year deal (makes it easier to trade Crain, closer insurance)

Jake Peavy

 

See what they have/No point in trying to move for obvious reasons:

Leyson Septimo

Brian Omogrosso

Jhan Marinez

 

Major (youth) targets in any deal/through the Rule-5/MiLB FA:

Starting SS

Starting 3B

LH power hitter, wherever he plays

Contact-based OF with power + range, wherever he plays

 

I go into the offseason with this thinking process & see what I can get done. At the end, if I still have holes to fill that I kind fill with possible/probable 3-5 year window players, then I hunt for bargains on the FA market.

 

I don't see the benefit of dealing cost-friendly Alexei and trying to find another SS. Even with his bat down, his defense is elite, and he is likely to have a substantially better season hitting next year, even if it doesn't match his peak.

 

[shago]

$7mm for AJP? Buh-bye ... it's been fun

 

While this is a very realistic outcome, the team will be mediocre again and would do nothing to make the team younger / closer to a WS....

 

Would completely re-build, keep Paulie around to retire here, keep a fan favorite. Get rid of Peavy, Youk, Dunn, Rios, Beckham, AJ, Gavin (dude is never going to be a winner) for whatever you can get back, even if you eat a bunch of their contracts, in the form of prospects / don't re-sign free agents like AJ. Keep DeAza and Dayan around, cheap fillers with some potential. Danks could be worth a lot at trade deadline next year, if healthy, keep him around unless a good off-season offer comes-in.

 

Sign Sale to a real contract extension. Moneyball the rest of the line-up. Build for the future. 2013 is a lost cause...

[fathom]

Sign Sale to a real contract extension.

 

No way, you want to make sure his arm doesn't fall off next year.

[Marty34]

Shed as much payroll as possible, protect the arms of Sale, Danks, and Quintana.

[fathom]

Shed as much payroll as possible, protect the arms of Sale, Danks, and Quintana.

 

If you can get a good deal for Konerko, Dunn, Rios, Floyd or Thornton, then you should aggressively try to get rid of them. This doesn't mean just giving them away for salary relief though, and it also doesn't mean going after the 20th ranked prospect in the Blue Jays system. I'm anxiously awaiting someone to mention trading Alexei and then trying to trade for Profar

[Eminor3rd]

$7mm for AJP? Buh-bye ... it's been fun

 

While this is a very realistic outcome, the team will be mediocre again and would do nothing to make the team younger / closer to a WS....

 

Would completely re-build, keep Paulie around to retire here, keep a fan favorite. Get rid of Peavy, Youk, Dunn, Rios, Beckham, AJ, Gavin (dude is never going to be a winner) for whatever you can get back, even if you eat a bunch of their contracts, in the form of prospects / don't re-sign free agents like AJ. Keep DeAza and Dayan around, cheap fillers with some potential. Danks could be worth a lot at trade deadline next year, if healthy, keep him around unless a good off-season offer comes-in.

 

Sign Sale to a real contract extension. Moneyball the rest of the line-up. Build for the future. 2013 is a lost cause...

 

Trust me, I fall well into the 'rebuilder' side of fandom, but even I don't think this team needs to be completely dismantled.

 

I do, however, think it needs to go one way or the other.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If you're going to trade nearly all of the veterans for prospects/young players, then there is no reason in the world to bring Peavy back.

Peavy wanted to stay in SD even though they sucked.

 

You need someone to help anchor the rotation along with Sale & Danks. That leaves Quintana as the #4 and a legitimate competition between several players for the #5 slot. Lots of competition is a good thing, that way you don't end up with Dylan Axelrod going out there every 5th day. Also it's nice to have both a veteran clubhouse influence and a possible veteran SP to use as trade bait over the deadline if we're out of it. Danks & Peavy would mean 1 could go while still keeping a vet.

 

And if you're reasonable in your expectations, IMO trading a bunch of vets isn't necessarily a bad idea. Alexei's deal might not look so decent a year from now; Pauile is up there in age; Alex & Dunn can take year-long mental vacations, so now is the time to deal them if you want to guard against that; and there's no reason not to shop expensive setup men in the last years of their deals.

 

I don't think it's out of the question to see this team deal away a couple vets, refrain from bringing back a couple other vets, and yet still win more than 85 games next season. I don't want to see a Cubs-style full rebuild, but adding some more youth is the right course of action, and just getting a couple nice, younger pieces in there over the offseason ala 2007 with Floyd/Gavin, 2008 with CQ/Alexei, etc. could go a long way.

[greg775]

First thing you do is trade Rios and Dunn. It pains me to add Paulie to that list but I guess I could be convinced all three should go. I am of the opinion Rios and Dunn remain untradeable. Nobody wants all those Dunn K's and nobody is gonna touch Rios with the proverbial 10 foot pole only because of the cost involved. They make too much loot.

If some team is dumb enough to take them off your hands, then you got some money to talk about a significant rebuild. If you can't get rid of them you can't do much money wise with the roster. Just my opinion.

 

So in summary see what the market is for Rios and Dunn and gulp, maybe Paulie.

Edited October 2, 2012 by greg775

[cabiness42]

Transactions:

 

Decline option on Myers

Exercise option on Youkilis

Decline option on Peavy but re-sign

Exercise option on Floyd but trade

Re-sign AJ, Wise, Heath

Do not re-sign Hudson, Liriano, Lopez, Bruney, Johnson, Olmedo

Option to Minors: Morel, Giminez, Marinez, Danks, Omogrosso, Septimo

 

Sign Mike Fontenot to back up 2B/3B and possibly platoon with Beckham if he struggles and Fontenot does well.

Sign Lillibridge if Cleveland doesn't keep him, otherwise, find some other utility player or at last resort re-sign Olmedo.

 

Lineup:

 

DH - Dunn

C - AJ

1B - Konerko

2B - Beckham

SS - Ramirez

3B - Youkilis

CF - De Aza

LF/RF - (see below)

 

Bench: Flowers, Wise, Lillibridge, Fontenot

 

Starting pitchers: Sale, Peavy, Danks, Santiago, Quintana/Axelrod/Humber

 

Bullpen: Reed, Thornton, Crain, Jones, Veal, Heath, Axelrod/Humber

 

Now, for LF/RF. Viciedo and Rios are fine players in their own right, but this team needs some OBP, so between the two of them and Gavin Floyd, I'm trying to trade them for some corner outfielders that can get on base. As I noted in the OBP thread, this team can't win with a bottom half of the order of Rios/AJ/Viciedo/Ramirez/Beckham, and the corner OF is the best chance of finding more OBP for the lineup. I'm not saying to just give Viciedo or Rios away for nothing, but if there is a guy out there via free agency or trade that can bring a .350 OBP with at least a little bit of pop, the trigger has to be pulled.

Edited October 2, 2012 by HickoryHuskers

[Marty34]

The problem with the Sox needs is that they are expensive ones, starting pitching and OBP. That's why this is going to take a while.

[2nd_city_saint787]

This is all a long shot/BS randomly thrown together as everything will be.

 

Though I'm not convinced having 4 LHers in the rotation is a bad thing I'd look for a RHer to balance it out. The Diamondbacks have 4 RHers Trevor Cahill, Ian Kennedy, Josh Collmenter, and some guy named Daniel Hudson, I think one of them could be had at the right price. They already have Miley, and need spots for Skaggs and or Bauer.

 

If Carlos Sanchez is ready I'd dangle Lexi+ out out there for preferably Cahill or Hudson.

 

Pick up Floyds option, trade Q and go with a rotation of Sale-Cahill/Hudson-Danks-Floyd-Santiago.

 

Trade Tank/Q/Jones/Thornton/prospects for David Wright.

 

Tank, Q, Jones, and Matty would all play big roles on that team for now and the future, Wright would more than likely be gone after next season (if they even pick up his option).

 

Pick up a veteran OFer to hopefully just hold down Trayce Thompsons spot while he gets some seasoning down in AAA. Someone like a Johnny Gomes.

 

Lineup would set up as

 

ADA

Rios

Wright

Dunn

Konerko

AJP

Gomes/Thompson

Beckham

Sanchez

 

 

Bullpen

 

Closer-Myers/Reed (doesnt Myers have a cheaper option for next year?)

LH SU Veal

RH SU Myers/Reed

RH MR Crain

LH MR Septimo

RH LR Omogrosso

LH LR Leesman

 

I did no calculating as far as money goes so thats probably unrealistic but it'd be pretty fun

 

[bigruss]

Trade Rios for 'spects

Trade Thornton for 'spects

Trade Floyd for 'spects

 

^Any of these may spects or trades may be altered for acquisitions below.

 

Don't bring back Peavy, Youk, Hudson, Myers, Liriano, etc.

 

Sign BJ Upton

Sign Reed Johnson

Trade for Chase Headley

Sign a reliever or two on the cheap, Coop-like projects

Trade for Ryan Doumit

Sign SP (Guthrie, A. Sanchez, Jackson)

 

Also, shop around Viciedo for SP or 2b/OF upgrade.

 

Roughly $105mm

Edited October 2, 2012 by bigruss22

[fathom]

I'm surprised so many people want Myers back. From what I see, his stuff has deteriorated significantly the past few years. I'd definitely pass on him, and if they don't trade Jones and Reed (as closer), try to find another righty specialist (someone like Neshek/O'Day).