Your 2013 Plan for the White Sox

[Harry Chappas]

With having four lefties potentially able to be in the rotation next year (Danks, Sale, Santiago, and Quintana) could Kenny look to sell high on Jose Quintana?

 

We all saw what happened with Phil Humber this year, and guys like Gavin Floyd who never took that next big step. If the Sox could bring back Peavy that would set the Sox up with six men in the rotation (without even talking about someone like Axelrod). If you trade Quintana, it resets the rotation with only three lefties and two righties. Outside of Sale, Quintana might well have the highest trade value of any pitcher on this team because of his age and his contract status. Thinking out loud here, but could a team out there be interested in selling on a young/cheap 3B in a package for Quintana? If so, should Kenny be interested?

 

I don't think Quintana has the "stuff" and pedigree to get the return that would make the risk worth trading.

[southsider2k5]

I can see some reasons - Santiago has nastier stuff and more velocity, so he might be better in the long run.

 

That said, I don't see wanting to get rid of either of them.

 

It isn't a 'want to get rid of' thing, it is a making the overall team better thing. Also throw in a bit of trying to think like Kenny Williams.

[VAfan]

1. Unload Thornton. His 10 losses were death to this season.

 

2. Keep Floyd, not Peavy. Peavy pitched just well enough to look good, but not well enough to win games. Floyd may look horrible for stretches, but he also pitches lights out for stretches. I worry about the elbow problems that cut his innings, but we need a solid right-handed starter and would likely have to pay as much for an alternative.

 

3. Re-sign AJ for two years. At his age, he'll be cheaper than you think. We need lefties for our lineup.

 

4. Sign Eric Chavez for 3B. He's had a very nice bounce back year for the Yankees, with 16 HRs in 250 ABs. Gives us another lefty power bat with good on-base numbers, which would allow us to unload Dunn. However ...

 

5. I'm afraid we're likely stuck with Adam Dunn. Not sure the front office will move him after 41 HRs, and not sure there will be any takers. I would trade him in a second, however, if I didn't have to eat any of his contract, and/or if I could get young pitching in return. Baltimore? (If we unload Dunn, we could keep Johnson, though I don't trust him as a full-time player.)

 

6. Find another right-hander for the rotation. Sale is our frontliner, followed by Danks and Floyd. I see Quintana battling Santiago for the #4 hole, with the loser in the pen. The fifth guy could be a reclamation project like Humber was.

 

7. Hope ... a) Gordon Beckham figures out how to hit consistently. b) Alexei Ramirez goes back to hitting like 2008 or 2010. c) Paul Konerko stays healthy all year. d) Our bullpen doesn't blow so many games. e) Gavin Floyd's new delivery holds and makes him a consistent pitcher. f) Alex Rios repeats his 2012 season.

 

If the Sox could unload Dunn, it would give them much more financial flexibility. They could spend more on starting pitching, or shore up the bullpen. BUT, my guess is it's not happening.

 

Look at how Baltimore won. By having a lights-out bullpen. Our bullpen, in contrast, was terrible. We could gain 5+ games with better pitching on the back end.

 

Oakland, on the other hand, won with great young starting pitching. We are there with Sale. Possibly there with Quintana/Santiago. We need more of that. Keeping Floyd for his option year is a bridge.

Edited October 4, 2012 by VAfan

[Doc Edwards Shot]

I can understand the Thornton hate, though I think its overblown but why the Crain hate??? A 2.44 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP isn't good enough for you?

I'll second this bewilderment. Crain was our most steady, reliable veteran reliever.

 

Besides the young studs like Reed and Jones who aren't going anywhere, he's the last guy in our pen that I'm thinking about getting rid of.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I can see some reasons - Santiago has nastier stuff and more velocity, so he might be better in the long run.

 

That said, I don't see wanting to get rid of either of them.

Santiago throws his fastball a couple ticks harder but it's just as hittable as Quintana's is when left out over the plate; actually since Jose mixes it up more Santiago's fastball is even more hittable most of the time since it's easier for hitters to guess on. Quintana's assortment of pitches is much more impressive to me than Santiago's. I think both have ceilings as #3s but Santiago I think is a lot farther away than Quintana, who is close to being a finished product.

 

Jose IMO just needs the experience and MLB conditioning. Santiago OTOH needs all that plus a better slider since that screwball doesn't do a whole lot. Quintana's fade I think had a lot more to do with his physical strength/durability along with some questionable advice from the dugout on pitch calls and sequence than anything else. If he throws good strikes & mixes it up he'll be a good pitcher. I like Santiago too but if 1 lefty has to go (as part of a package for someone good) I think it's an easy choice.

[The Ultimate Champion]

I don't think Quintana has the "stuff" and pedigree to get the return that would make the risk worth trading.

I agree.

 

Teams don't like having to overpay for an overachiever type, and since you'd have to overpay the Sox to force them into trading away 5 years of a good, cost-effective player, a deal is probably unlikely.

[BlackBetsy]

The pieces I would keep are:

 

Paul Konerko ($13.5)

Adam Dunn ($15)

Alejandro De Aza ($2.5 ARB)

AJ Pierzynski ($8 / 1 year)

Alexei Ramirez ($7 )

Flowers ($0.5)

Beckham ($2 ARB)

Viciedo ($2.5) (not clear what his salary will be)

 

Sale ($0.5)

Danks ($14.25)

Floyd ($9.5)

Santiago ($0.5)

 

Crain ($4.5)

Reed ($0.5)

Jones ($0.5)

Veal ($0.5)

 

16 guys, $81.75 million.

 

I would trade Rios. I think we sell high on him to a contender that believes in him. I think he brings a good return.

I would trade Quintana. I think this is another sell high situation. At the end of the day, I just think he doesn't have the stuff. Second time around the league, not so good.

I would trade Thornton as a salary dump. He really did well for a lot of years but he doesn't have much left. The decline in K/9 and increase in hits is a glaring warning sign. Maybe some team will take a flyer on him.

 

I would not pick up options on Youkilis or Peavy. Hudson, Olmedo and the other chaff - gone.

 

Obviously, the holes I leave are 3B, CF (Moving De Aza to LF and Viciedo to RF) and one starting slot. Other 6 spots (4th OF, backup infielder, two bullpen spots) can be filled for roughly $6-$12 million.

 

3B is the biggest quandary. It probably will have to be filled through free agency as a stop gap. Eric Chavez is a free agent and you'd have to consider a 1-year deal from him. $3-4 million may even do it for him (he made $500k this year). Unless you can pry Chase Headley away from the Padres (you won't), it's stop gap city until the Sox can either develop a 3B man (STOP LAUGHING) or pick one up on the free agent market.

 

CF I think you target Victorino for a turnaround. Given his poor 2012, his market value may be lower. I wouldn't go more than 2 years on him and maybe someone makes him a crazy offer. But he's an attractive choice.

 

I think you could package Rios and Quintana for a solid starter. Take your pick. Oakland could use the offense and they have extra starters. Assuming they could take on a bit of salary, it's a good take for them. Maybe even you get B-Mac back to the Sox.

 

A hypothetical lineup would be:

 

De Aza LF

Victorino CF

Dunn DH

Konerko 1B

Chavez 3B

Viciedo RF

Pierzysnki C

Ramirez SS

Beckham 2B

 

Rotation

 

Sale

B-Mac

Danks

Floyd

Santiago

 

Pen

 

Jones

Reed

Crain

Veal

LH TBD

RH TBD

RH TBD

 

Bench of Flowers, 4th OF, Middle IF, Corner IF.

 

 

 

 

 

[Eminor3rd]

I like the idea of trading Rios and signing Victorino as a reclamation project.

[bigruss]

I like the idea of trading Rios and signing Victorino as a reclamation project.

BJ Upton is more intriguing to me, depending on the price of the two players.

[JoshPR]

Eric Chavez? Ummmmm no

[LittleHurt05]

BJ Upton is more intriguing to me, depending on the price of the two players.

 

Can you imagine the strikeout potential of a lineup with BJ Upton & Dunn in your top three? I can feel the breeze from here.

[bigruss]

Can you imagine the strikeout potential of a lineup with BJ Upton & Dunn in your top three? I can feel the breeze from here.

Upton wouldn't be a top 3 hitter for me until he got the OBP above .330 again. His power got better this past year but he took a step back in walks. Still, he would fit nicely as a replacement for Rios for less money.

[BlackBetsy]

Eric Chavez? Ummmmm no

3B Market is awful. Here are the 3B options:

 

Morel...worst offensive player in baseball this year when he was playing.

Youkilis - $13 million option for basically average performance in 2012 after he fizzled down the stretch.

Rushing Sanchez up to the majors (and he has very little power)

???

 

Chavez as a stop gap until another 3B option becomes available is not a great option but there just is nothing out there....

[fathom]

Carpenter on StL is someone that I want the Sox to consider acquiring in order to play 3rd.

[BlackBetsy]

Carpenter on StL is someone that I want the Sox to consider acquiring in order to play 3rd.

Cheap talent will be hard to pry out of their hands but luckily they have 1B and 3B covered. Not sure he's 100% legit but I agree he's worth a flier. I'd deal Quintana straight up for him. I might even throw in Jared Mitchell.

[Springfield Soxfan]

I really do not think AJ is back. My gut tells me if he was to be back he would be signed already. Some team is going to give him a three year deal. I hate to say it.

[JoshPR]

3B Market is awful. Here are the 3B options:

 

Morel...worst offensive player in baseball this year when he was playing.

Youkilis - $13 million option for basically average performance in 2012 after he fizzled down the stretch.

Rushing Sanchez up to the majors (and he has very little power)

???

 

Chavez as a stop gap until another 3B option becomes available is not a great option but there just is nothing out there....

Oft injured, not good any more not worth the money

[BlackBetsy]

Oft injured, not good any more not worth the money

 

.281 / .348 / .496 this year in 313 PA. Oft injured for sure. Not worthless.

 

Not here to defend Chavez. Lots of bad options for 3B. You got a better one?

[Andy the Clown]

Maybe it's just me, but I have no idea why anyone would ever choose to keep Hector Santiago over Jose Quintana.

 

Much better stuff = better upside.

 

In theory.

[oldsox]

I don't know who Sox will go after in the FA market, but I sure hope it is NOT Josh Hamilton.

[Bubba Philips]

.281 / .348 / .496 this year in 313 PA. Oft injured for sure. Not worthless.

 

Not here to defend Chavez. Lots of bad options for 3B. You got a better one?

 

sure, put gordon back at third and find 2nd baseman that can field and hit. Get Get Getz back and we have another lefty in the line up.

[Marty34]

What's the goal for 2013?

[The Ultimate Champion]

Much better stuff = better upside.

 

In theory.

But that's just it, he doesn't have better stuff. His fastball is faster and that's all I can see that he has over Quintana. That screwball isn't anything impressive. Hitters aren't supposed to be able to sit on your offspeed pitch and hit it 5 miles out, especially while still covering the fastball, and that's what happened during a good portion of his time spent on the roster this season. IMO fans are making way too much both of Quintana's fade after a heavy workload & Hector's Charlotte stats + performance in a couple of starts, 3 of which (vs. KC, CLE, MIN) were against bad teams in garbage time. Hector is a nice young player but let's not forget why he sat in the pen so long earlier in the season, why he was used the way he was after losing the closer's job & also how Leyson Septimo took his roster spot.

 

All the Quintana trade stuff is kind of absurd, I mean, all people b**** about is how we don't have enough good young players, and then as soon as you get one you want to "sell high." WTF? Was he supposed to throw 200IP of strong baseball in his first full season? After having spent the previous season in A+ ball? LOL, this guy has 300 career MiLB IP and his MiLB career high came last year at a whopping 102 IP. Yeah, sell high. My ass.

[caulfield12]

What's the goal for 2013?

 

Surely it's to please/placate/appease the fanbase.

[Rowand44]

Quintana is tricky. No one can be sure if him fading down the stretch was fatigue or regression to the mean.