Your 2013 Plan for the White Sox

[2nd_city_saint787]

Olt or Beltre wont be available will they?? Dont they plan to move Olt to 1B or the OF??

 

If not, if they don't get Hamilton back maybe they'd be interested in Rios to take his place??

 

They have Joey Gallo as a 3B prospect who might be ready to go by the time Beltre is gone so it might make Olt expendable?

[maggsmaggs]

Quintana is tricky. No one can be sure if him fading down the stretch was fatigue or regression to the mean.

I would guess probably a little of both. But making the league minimum and in the rotation at the back end, that is a pretty solid bargain even if he throws a 4.25 ERA.

 

I would like our rotation to be:

 

1. Sale

2. Peavy

3. Danks

4. Santiago

5. Quintana

 

Trade Gavin and free up his $10 million salary to re-sign Peavy to a more market friendly two-year deal at let's say $12 million. If you can sign him for that, you have a, what seems like, solid rotation making a combined $26 million and have saved nearly $15 million.

Edited October 6, 2012 by maggsmaggs

[nitetrain8601]

I would guess probably a little of both. But making the league minimum and in the rotation at the back end, that is a pretty solid bargain even if he throws a 4.25 ERA.

 

I would like our rotation to be:

 

1. Sale

2. Peavy

3. Danks

4. Santiago

5. Quintana

 

Trade Gavin and free up his $10 million salary to re-sign Peavy to a more market friendly two-year deal at let's say $12 million. If you can sign him for that, you have a, what seems like, solid rotation making a combined $26 million and have saved nearly $15 million.

 

Problem is, Santiago has shown you very little that suggests he can actually pitch. He can throw, but can he pitch? Coop makes it sound like he's not confident in John Danks for 2013 either. The Sox essentially need Peavy and to probably go after 1 more starter if they don't keep Floyd. I'd also try and re-sign Youk, but if not, sending Beckham back to third base may not be a bad option to be honest until you can find a real solution.

[fathom]

What did Cooper say about Danks?

[JoshPR]

.281 / .348 / .496 this year in 313 PA. Oft injured for sure. Not worthless.

 

Not here to defend Chavez. Lots of bad options for 3B. You got a better one?

I would bring back youk, but no more than a one year deal and maybe an option, he does well and were out if it early you get something for him, he sucks you just let him go.

[Rowand44]

But that's just it, he doesn't have better stuff. His fastball is faster and that's all I can see that he has over Quintana. That screwball isn't anything impressive. Hitters aren't supposed to be able to sit on your offspeed pitch and hit it 5 miles out, especially while still covering the fastball, and that's what happened during a good portion of his time spent on the roster this season. IMO fans are making way too much both of Quintana's fade after a heavy workload & Hector's Charlotte stats + performance in a couple of starts, 3 of which (vs. KC, CLE, MIN) were against bad teams in garbage time. Hector is a nice young player but let's not forget why he sat in the pen so long earlier in the season, why he was used the way he was after losing the closer's job & also how Leyson Septimo took his roster spot.

 

All the Quintana trade stuff is kind of absurd, I mean, all people b**** about is how we don't have enough good young players, and then as soon as you get one you want to "sell high." WTF? Was he supposed to throw 200IP of strong baseball in his first full season? After having spent the previous season in A+ ball? LOL, this guy has 300 career MiLB IP and his MiLB career high came last year at a whopping 102 IP. Yeah, sell high. My ass.

Hector clearly has better stuff than Q, the strike out numbers will tell you that.

[BlackBetsy]

I would bring back youk, but no more than a one year deal and maybe an option, he does well and were out if it early you get something for him, he sucks you just let him go.

Youk ain't coming back. He's said that family is now his #1 concern (just got married, just had kid) and he lives in Los Gatos (near San Jose). You know Billy Beane would love having him on the A's.

 

I also don't think moving Gordon to 3rd and signing someone to play 2B is an option either. Gordon, while he plays plus defense at 2B, is not an asset at 3B (he's barely an asset at 2B with his marginal stick). The Sox need production from that spot.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Youk ain't coming back. He's said that family is now his #1 concern (just got married, just had kid) and he lives in Los Gatos (near San Jose). You know Billy Beane would love having him on the A's.

 

I also don't think moving Gordon to 3rd and signing someone to play 2B is an option either. Gordon, while he plays plus defense at 2B, is not an asset at 3B (he's barely an asset at 2B with his marginal stick). The Sox need production from that spot.

 

It wouldn't be the worst idea if they cant swing a trade for a 3B but can get a 2B...Like an Ian Kinsler maybe, the Rangers have Jurrickson Prufair (or whatever his name is) who seems ready to produce. Maybe Kinsler might be available and they might want Rios as a return is Hamilton leaves.

 

Or maybe even Michael Young who can play some 3B or 2B.

[The Ultimate Champion]

Hector clearly has better stuff than Q, the strike out numbers will tell you that.

Yeah well my own eyes tell me different so I guess we'll just disagree. Jose pitches to contact & throws fewer pitches. Santiago OTOH pitches for the K and his pitch count shows it, along with his career BB numbers. K total doesn't always correlate to raw stuff. Neither pitcher is really a "stuff" pitcher anyway. Both are deceptive lefthanders. That screwball isn't going to work over a full MLB season, just my opinion, and if Santiago stays here and works a full season as a starter than I certainly hope I'm wrong.

[southsider2k5]

I don't know who Sox will go after in the FA market, but I sure hope it is NOT Josh Hamilton.

 

Yeah, um. Don't worry yourself there.

[caulfield12]

It wouldn't be the worst idea if they cant swing a trade for a 3B but can get a 2B...Like an Ian Kinsler maybe, the Rangers have Jurrickson Prufair (or whatever his name is) who seems ready to produce. Maybe Kinsler might be available and they might want Rios as a return is Hamilton leaves.

 

Or maybe even Michael Young who can play some 3B or 2B.

 

 

Look at Young's contract. We improved in 2012 partly because of our defense. The last thing you want is Young playing anywhere but DH or 1B.

 

I would imagine they would be more likely to trade Andrus (to make room for Profar) than Kinsler (being pushed out with Andrus going to 2B), but it's just a guess.

 

 

[caulfield12]

Yeah well my own eyes tell me different so I guess we'll just disagree. Jose pitches to contact & throws fewer pitches. Santiago OTOH pitches for the K and his pitch count shows it, along with his career BB numbers. K total doesn't always correlate to raw stuff. Neither pitcher is really a "stuff" pitcher anyway. Both are deceptive lefthanders. That screwball isn't going to work over a full MLB season, just my opinion, and if Santiago stays here and works a full season as a starter than I certainly hope I'm wrong.

 

 

If you define "stuff" as someone who consistently pitches at 95+, then you're only going to be talking guys like Scherzer and Verlander.

 

When they're on, Gavin Floyd has the best overall stuff on the staff (and clearly, many would argue a healthy and rested Chris Sale still has the better overall arsenal), but his fastball is about the same velocity as Santiago's.

 

The main difference with Santiago and Quintana is the same thing we've seen with Danks recently, or even Matt Thornton...they have a hard time fooling hitters with the stuff they do have, they don't get nearly as many swings and misses. Lacking a true put-away pitch, Santiago's essentially another Mark Buehrle with a tick faster FB but obviously you need to have pinpoint control to get away with that consistently. Quintana did have an extended string of great pitching, until he faded down the stretch. So is he Humber or Buehrle? Probably something in between.

 

But yeah, one thing that was impressive about Quintana in the first half of his starts was keeping his pitch count so low and not extending the game into the bullpen in the 5th and 6th innings.

Edited October 6, 2012 by caulfield12

[TaylorStSox]

Jones, Crain and Veal have the best "stuff" on the team IMO. Obviously it's subjective though.

[caulfield12]

Jones, Crain and Veal have the best "stuff" on the team IMO. Obviously it's subjective though.

 

 

We're talking starters, though, at least I thought.

 

Jones still has struggled against RHB'ers and while he pitched well in stretches, he also doesn't get nearly as many swings and misses on his fastball as one would expect.

 

He throws a very "light" fastball. You watch lots of other guys throwing 97-100 MPH, they're totally dominant with the fastball alone. Jones can't get away without having a breaking pitch he can get over.

 

Crain's lost something off his fastball from 3-5 years ago, probably due to overuse by the Twins.

 

 

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

We're talking starters, though, at least I thought.

 

Jones still has struggled against RHB'ers and while he pitched well in stretches, he also doesn't get nearly as many swings and misses on his fastball as one would expect.

 

He throws a very "light" fastball. You watch lots of other guys throwing 97-100 MPH, they're totally dominant with the fastball alone. Jones can't get away without having a breaking pitch he can get over.

 

Crain's lost something off his fastball from 3-5 years ago, probably due to overuse by the Twins.

Jones doesn't get swings and misses on the fastball because he doesn't know how to pitch yet. He needs to elevate it more. AJ's pitch calling isn't helping either.

 

Crain's lost some velocity, but his breaking stuff is nasty when he's on and he can throw it for strikes.

[caulfield12]

Jones doesn't get swings and misses on the fastball because he doesn't know how to pitch yet. He needs to elevate it more. AJ's pitch calling isn't helping either.

 

Crain's lost some velocity, but his breaking stuff is nasty when he's on and he can throw it for strikes.

 

 

We'll see.

 

Remember when Jenks came up in 2005, he didn't know how to pitch yet either but his raw stuff carried the day.

 

Same catcher as today.

 

With AJ likely gone, we'll find out the affect he really had (or didn't) on this pitching staff in 2013, in all likelihood.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Look at Young's contract. We improved in 2012 partly because of our defense. The last thing you want is Young playing anywhere but DH or 1B.

 

I would imagine they would be more likely to trade Andrus (to make room for Profar) than Kinsler (being pushed out with Andrus going to 2B), but it's just a guess.

 

Ill gladly take Andrus if he wants to play 2B or 3B.

[TaylorStSox]

We'll see.

 

Remember when Jenks came up in 2005, he didn't know how to pitch yet either but his raw stuff carried the day.

 

Same catcher as today.

 

With AJ likely gone, we'll find out the affect he really had (or didn't) on this pitching staff in 2013, in all likelihood.

Jenks had some of the best stuff I've ever seen. 100+ FB, 2+Curves, +Slider, +Change and a Cutter. Dude was just flat out unfair.

 

There are too many variables to determine how much of an effect a catcher has from one year to the next. I do know that his pitch calling was predictable and he didn't like to change eye levels enough. He also didn't call for enough pitches in the dirt with 2 strikes. I'm not going to speculate why, but I have a feeling of what it was.

[Baines3]

I hope Liriano goes some place else next season.

[caulfield12]

Jenks had some of the best stuff I've ever seen. 100+ FB, 2+Curves, +Slider, +Change and a Cutter. Dude was just flat out unfair.

 

There are too many variables to determine how much of an effect a catcher has from one year to the next. I do know that his pitch calling was predictable and he didn't like to change eye levels enough. He also didn't call for enough pitches in the dirt with 2 strikes. I'm not going to speculate why, but I have a feeling of what it was.

 

 

He's never been good at blocking pitches...whether it's laziness or just poor technique or a combination of both.

 

The "changing eye level" thing was thrown out there a lot with Addison Reed, as well.

 

Just like changing managers was largely credited as a plus (getting rid of the Ozzie distractions and having a level-headed manager in the Bob Melvin mold), we'll have lots of theories next year if the pitching staff struggles WITHOUT AJ.

 

 

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

If you define "stuff" as someone who consistently pitches at 95+, then you're only going to be talking guys like Scherzer and Verlander.

 

When they're on, Gavin Floyd has the best overall stuff on the staff (and clearly, many would argue a healthy and rested Chris Sale still has the better overall arsenal), but his fastball is about the same velocity as Santiago's.

 

The main difference with Santiago and Quintana is the same thing we've seen with Danks recently, or even Matt Thornton...they have a hard time fooling hitters with the stuff they do have, they don't get nearly as many swings and misses. Lacking a true put-away pitch, Santiago's essentially another Mark Buehrle with a tick faster FB but obviously you need to have pinpoint control to get away with that consistently. Quintana did have an extended string of great pitching, until he faded down the stretch. So is he Humber or Buehrle? Probably something in between.

 

But yeah, one thing that was impressive about Quintana in the first half of his starts was keeping his pitch count so low and not extending the game into the bullpen in the 5th and 6th innings.

I agree with this post.

 

Stuff to me isn't necessarily velocity on the fastball; to me it's hard, late break on a breaking ball, fade & sink on a change, speed differential/movement(especially late) on the fastball, etc. The fastball is the most important pitch but the secondary offering(s) dictate to a large degree the effectiveness of the fastball. Your Thornton point is an excellent example of this, i.e. he doesn't really have the "stuff" he just has a hard fastball that hitters can sit on when he's not locating and popping the glove with it.

 

Neither Santiago nor Quintana are "stuff" pitchers. Both are deceptive lefties that need to get ahead with the fastball to be effective, and when the bench has them inexplicably trying to pitch backwards it just doesn't work. The idea that Santiago has better "stuff" IMO is just all screwball hype and the fact that his fastball speed is higher. But if you watch Santiago theres no sharp break on anything he seems to throw, the slider doesn't have much bite, the fastball is pretty straight, and the screwball IMO would be better as a straight change. I'm not standing in the batters box so I obviously don't know, but to me it seems like the speed of the screwball is what is getting the hitters, not the movement, and the fastball is the effective pitch (aided by deception) and actually, I think the movement on the change/screwball is helping the hitters identify it earlier which allows them to hit it easily when he leaves it up. Santiago doesn't really have more than 1 good pitch IMO. Q OTOH I see as having far better command, but he just lost strength as the year went on and left a lot more pitches over the plate. IMO Quintana's change is better than Santiago's screwball, his slider is better, his 4-seam and cutter command is better, etc. and all together it makes him harder to square up the ball on, therefore he has better stuff. But the FB is the best pitch for both pitchers, and neither have any kind of knockout secondary pitch, so both are deception-based lefties who need to overachieve basically. To that end, Q is farther along, closer to a finished product, has more tools in the shed, etc. and if you have to keep one I think it's very easy to pick.

 

What I like about both pitchers is the mentality they have. Santiago has a nice floor also, being that (IMO) if he can't be a #3 type in the end, you can think of him as a #5, and if he can't be that then he can be a lefty setup man, and worst case scenario assuming he stays healthy he is at least an effective lefty specialist. So if you're a team looking to acquire a package of young players for your proven vet, Santiago is the type of guy you want, ala pretty good ceiling, very nice floor, MLB ready right now, definitely going to contribute, overachiever type mentally, hard worker, etc.

 

I do think Santiago is definitely traded this offseason. You can't run out 4 lefties, and Danks and Sale are sticking. Q is closer to being ready I think, and with Santiago you're selling his potential short if you keep him and move him to the pen. IMO Q slots as the ideal #5 in a 3-lefty rotation because with Sale as your #1 you can go from a deceptive pitch to contact lefty on one day to a legitimate wipe-out machine the next. It's hard to justify throwing 2 similar types of lefties after each other to the same hitters on consecutive days, and it's just as hard to justify going from a "stuff" guy first to a Buehrle type second, but Quintana to Sale IMO would work very well. Add Santiago in the mix and one of the lefties is going to get lit up a bit I think.

[DukeNukeEm]

Sale clearly has the best stuff on the staff. He struck out 15 Yankees on less than 110 pitches, THAT HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE. Read the quotes form guys who had to face him, Josh Willingham (who doesn't suck) said he was basically unhittable and dreads facing him. When it comes to White Sox pitchers there's Chris Sale, a huge gap, then the other guys.

[BlackBetsy]

It wouldn't be the worst idea if they cant swing a trade for a 3B but can get a 2B...Like an Ian Kinsler maybe, the Rangers have Jurrickson Prufair (or whatever his name is) who seems ready to produce. Maybe Kinsler might be available and they might want Rios as a return is Hamilton leaves.

 

Or maybe even Michael Young who can play some 3B or 2B.

Ian Kinsler owed $75 million through 2017. He had a 95 OPS+ this year and next year he will be 31 and clearly on the downslope of his career....so I wouldn't take him on. Michael Young is 36 next year and had a 78 OPS+ this year...pass as well.

[caulfield12]

I agree with this post.

 

Stuff to me isn't necessarily velocity on the fastball; to me it's hard, late break on a breaking ball, fade & sink on a change, speed differential/movement(especially late) on the fastball, etc. The fastball is the most important pitch but the secondary offering(s) dictate to a large degree the effectiveness of the fastball. Your Thornton point is an excellent example of this, i.e. he doesn't really have the "stuff" he just has a hard fastball that hitters can sit on when he's not locating and popping the glove with it.

 

Neither Santiago nor Quintana are "stuff" pitchers. Both are deceptive lefties that need to get ahead with the fastball to be effective, and when the bench has them inexplicably trying to pitch backwards it just doesn't work. The idea that Santiago has better "stuff" IMO is just all screwball hype and the fact that his fastball speed is higher. But if you watch Santiago theres no sharp break on anything he seems to throw, the slider doesn't have much bite, the fastball is pretty straight, and the screwball IMO would be better as a straight change. I'm not standing in the batters box so I obviously don't know, but to me it seems like the speed of the screwball is what is getting the hitters, not the movement, and the fastball is the effective pitch (aided by deception) and actually, I think the movement on the change/screwball is helping the hitters identify it earlier which allows them to hit it easily when he leaves it up. Santiago doesn't really have more than 1 good pitch IMO. Q OTOH I see as having far better command, but he just lost strength as the year went on and left a lot more pitches over the plate. IMO Quintana's change is better than Santiago's screwball, his slider is better, his 4-seam and cutter command is better, etc. and all together it makes him harder to square up the ball on, therefore he has better stuff. But the FB is the best pitch for both pitchers, and neither have any kind of knockout secondary pitch, so both are deception-based lefties who need to overachieve basically. To that end, Q is farther along, closer to a finished product, has more tools in the shed, etc. and if you have to keep one I think it's very easy to pick.

 

What I like about both pitchers is the mentality they have. Santiago has a nice floor also, being that (IMO) if he can't be a #3 type in the end, you can think of him as a #5, and if he can't be that then he can be a lefty setup man, and worst case scenario assuming he stays healthy he is at least an effective lefty specialist. So if you're a team looking to acquire a package of young players for your proven vet, Santiago is the type of guy you want, ala pretty good ceiling, very nice floor, MLB ready right now, definitely going to contribute, overachiever type mentally, hard worker, etc.

 

I do think Santiago is definitely traded this offseason. You can't run out 4 lefties, and Danks and Sale are sticking. Q is closer to being ready I think, and with Santiago you're selling his potential short if you keep him and move him to the pen. IMO Q slots as the ideal #5 in a 3-lefty rotation because with Sale as your #1 you can go from a deceptive pitch to contact lefty on one day to a legitimate wipe-out machine the next. It's hard to justify throwing 2 similar types of lefties after each other to the same hitters on consecutive days, and it's just as hard to justify going from a "stuff" guy first to a Buehrle type second, but Quintana to Sale IMO would work very well. Add Santiago in the mix and one of the lefties is going to get lit up a bit I think.

 

 

Agree, in general.

 

FWIW, Cooper is a huge Santiago fan. I always thought of Hector as Johan Santana Lite, IF he could develop an effective off-speed pitch, like Johan's deadly change.

 

And the lefty I think MOST in danger of getting lit up by following Quintana is probably Danks.

 

We can probably agree Sale is quite unique and the other 3 (Q/Santiago/Danks, even Buehrle) have more similarities, making repeating them in a rotation, particularly in a four game series (haven't checked the schedule to see how many of these we have for 2013) particularly troublesome.

Edited October 7, 2012 by caulfield12

[flippedoutpunk]

So cleveland hires Francona, and we have our best third baseman playing manager. Oy vey!!