Your 2013 Plan for the White Sox

[Jerksticks]

The man nearly has 100 RBIs and is 3rd in HR, most any team would like to have him....We knew all along that he was gonna K a lot and wasn't gonna have a high BA yet most here loved the signing when it happened.

 

How do you plan on replacing close to 100 RBIs?? There are only 15 guys in the MLB with more.

 

It's all phony to me. That 2-homer game last week was the only time I can think of him playing like a superstar for us. It's not just the Ks. It's the fact that he's not a feared hitter. Sure he can bat fifth or lower next year, but c'mon, we need a legit #3 hitter. Most of our problems go away if we add that one guy.

 

 

[Jerksticks]

On what?

 

We do need a RHP that can throw harder than 91-92. Aren't you surprised Jake was able to do as we'll as he did with his weak stuff? Dude learned how to pitch a little bit, but good hitters could smack him around.

[BigSqwert]

It's all phony to me. That 2-homer game last week was the only time I can think of him playing like a superstar for us. It's not just the Ks. It's the fact that he's not a feared hitter. Sure he can bat fifth or lower next year, but c'mon, we need a legit #3 hitter. Most of our problems go away if we add that one guy.

I agree. I know he had quite a few timely hits this year but they seem so spread out. He never seems to carry the team on his back for long stretches of time like other star hitters do. But then again, how many guys are out there who can do that? Not many.

[southsider2k5]

NO way. NO WAY. YOU don't think they should bring back the same team? I'm SHOCKED!!!! We didn't get that from your last 2,839 posts or anything.

 

[bigruss]

On what?

You have to be kidding me.

 

I guess we don't have holes at:

 

3B

C

UTIL

RP

SP (depending on options)

 

He fills in 1 hole, for the amount of money we probably have to fill all 5.

[caulfield12]

These discussions are popping up in other threads, so, let's start a discussion here. What would be your plan, if you were the GM of the Sox?

 

I am going to make an ASSUMPTION here, that payroll will remain similar to last year (which started at about $98M, and ended around $104M).

 

OBLIGATED FOR 2013 BY CONTRACT (TOTAL: $72.25M):

Alex Rios: $12.5M

Adam Dunn: $15M

Paul Konerko: $13.5M

Jesse Crain: $4.5M

Matt Thornton; $5.5M

Alexei Ramirez: $7M

John Danks: $14.25M

 

CONTRACT OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS (TOTAL: $8M to $54.5M):

Jake Peavy: $22M TO or $4M BO

Kevin Youkilis: $13M TO or $1M BO (Boston sent money as salary offset, but buy-out is naked, I believe)

Gavin Floyd: $9.5M TO, no BO

Randy Myers: $10M TO or $3M BO (also a naked option I believe)

 

FREE AGENTS (NO OBLIGATION AGAINST):

Orlando Hudson

AJ Pierzynski

Francisco Liriano

Jose Lopez

Brian Bruney

Dewayne Wise

Dan Johnson

Ray Olmedo

Deunte Heath

 

ARB ELIGIBLE:

Phil Humber

Gordon Beckham

Alejandro De Aza

 

PRE-ARB:

Chris Sale

Brent Morel

Tyler Flowers

Nate Jones

Addison Reed

Hector Santiago

Dylan Axlerod

Jordan Danks

Hector Gimenez

Jhan Marinez

Brian Omogrosso

Jose Quintana

Leyson Septimo

Donnie Veal

 

--

 

So, you've got $72.25M under contract, and at least $8M more in obligations, taking you to $80.25M minimum. Let's assume that $100M is the ceiling.

 

Here is what I'd do...

 

OPTIONS AND BUY-OUTS: Buy out Youkilis, Myers and Peavy, for $8M (so that puts the team at $80.25M at this point).

 

FREE AGENTS TO GO: Everyone in the above FA list, except AJP (to be addressed below)

 

DFA/RELEASE: Phil Humber, Leyson Septimo

 

OPTION TO MINORS: Brent Morel, Hector Gimenez, Leyson Septimo

 

PRE-ARB: Offer contracts to Sale, Flowers, Jones, Reed, Quintana, Santiago, Veal, Omogrosso, Marinez, JorDanks and Axelrod . All around half a million each, so that's $5M, taking the team to $85.25M

 

ARBITRATION: Keep De Aza and Beckham around. This is purely a guess, but I'm thinking Beckham will cost $2M, and De Aza $3M, for a total of $5M, putting the team at $89.75M. Might want to consider giving De Aza a multi-year deal to buy out Arb and a year or two of FA.

 

TRADE AWAY: Trade Matt Thornton. Probably will only get a mid-level prospect for him, but that's fine, as salary relief is the key factor here. That saves you $5.5M, so you go back down to $84.25M.

 

SIGN: AJP first, and I'm again guessing here, but I think you can get him (given his performance, but also his age at C, and his history making the FA market narrower) for a 2+1 year deal, at about $7M per. So that takes you to $91.25M.

 

I'd try to sign Wise to a cheap short deal for the OF, I think having that vet there has been a good thing. Can probably be had for $1M or less, call it $1M for now. That's $92.25M

 

The other two slots you now face dealing with are 3B (or 2B if beckham can be moved over), and possibly one SP (you already have Danks, Sale, Quintana and Santiago penciled in). With $10M to work with, unless you want to trade someone like Rios or a top flight prospect, you can really only get one or the other that is any good for that money. So you are either starting someone like Leesman/Axelrod/Shirek/Castro, or you are bringing up Carlos Sanchez. I would rather shore up pitching, and go with the latter. So, use the $10M or so to do one of the following: first try to sign Peavy to a $9M-$12M a year deal (which I think is ppossible, with his injury history), or second try to find the best FA out there at that level of money, or third take Floyd's option. All costing the same, all getting you to around $100M.

 

One hole to fill is the bench IF guy, not sure who that might be, but would be cheap.

 

--

 

That gives you a ~$100M roster as follows:

 

LINEUP:

De Aza, 8

Sanchez, 5

Rios, 9

Dunn, 0

PK14, 3

AJP, 2

Viciedo, 7

Ramirez, 6

Beckham, 4

 

BENCH:

JorDanks, OF

Wise, OF

Flowers, C

????, 3B-SS-2B

 

ROTATION:

Sale

Danks

Peavy/Floyd/Other

Quintana

Santiago

 

BULLPEN:

Reed CL/SU

Jones CL/SU

Crain SU

Omogrosso SU

Veal SPEC

Marinez SPEC

Axelrod LR

 

--

 

OTHER POSSIBILITIES: If you trade Rios, you can probably get something good back, but you also now have to start someone like Jordan Danks in the OF until Mitchell or Thompson or somoene else are ready, which is not right away (IMO). You can maybe trade Floyd and his option year, but then you still have a pitching hole to fill. You may also want to flip Sanchez and Beckham on the infield. THE ONLY WAY I'd TRADE RIOS, is if it can result in a significant help at 3B, directly or indirectly.

 

IF THERE IS MORE MONEY AVAILABLE: Then do something about 3B with it. That is the weak spot, with a 20 year old rookie playing there, who I'd rather see developing at AAA.

 

This is a very similar team to this year, except the youngsters have had time to stretch out and develop. Sanchez and a couple rotation slots are the biggest changes.

 

 

Agree with almost everything here, with one big exception, Sanchez.

 

And the idea of moving Beckham to stick Sanchez in the line-up.

 

The AFL will provide some further clues, but my guess is we're going to find out he's further away that we're imagining. We'll just have to wait and see how the walks and OBP hold up against stiff competition. And he's got to provide absolutely premium defense and 20+ steals if he's going to be a single and doubles hitter and not hitting over .300.

 

Peavy and AJP are large parts of the problem over the last 3-4 seasons, Jake in particular, against the Tigers. There's just zero reason for one to believe that will change.

 

Maybe the "mindset" of this roster and organization CAN'T truly change with Konerko and AJP still around...until every single veteran connected to 2005 is gone.

 

But I'm in agreement with many that $13 million for YOUK is crazy, because it's not building anything lasting for the future...it's just a stop-gap solution, and this year proved that we were more than just 3-4 players (Myers, Liriano, Youk) away from having a legit playoff team.

[caulfield12]

In my opinion, none of Konerko, Dunn, Rios, or Ramirez are going to be solid contributors to the next Sox postseason team. Therefore let someone else pay the remainder of their contracts. With some of the savings sign an innings-eater to a short-term small money deal (Blanton, Guthrie) to protect Sale, Danks, and Quintana while at the same time setting yourself up payroll wise for 2014+

 

I'm not sure how good Quintana will be, but he's worth developing. It wouldn't surprise me eventually if he's a #3 starter, I just do not think he will reach that in 2013.

 

This is typical "Royals Thinking" for the past 20 years.

 

It's very hard to "band aid" a bridge to your contention window.

 

People argued at mid-season how terrible Guthrie was...now he will be overpaid based on an outlier of a 2 month sample (most of his wins are against the Sox and ALCD), so you're going to be buying extremely high with lots of downside risk.

 

If you want to take a moderate risk, then you re-sign Liriano and try to fix him. Better than giving that money to a Joe Blanton or Jeremy Guthrie type that will end up giving you a 76-84 win team again, or even worse, go Phil Humber 2012 on you.

 

For a long time, you've wanted to trade Viciedo and Ramirez. That much was/is clear.

 

The problem is that Viciedo's value is down, and one of our other four "youngish" position players in DeAza is no longer an ideal CFer.

 

The other two guys we're relying on are Beckham and Flowers, and who knows what they'll give us in 2013.

Edited October 3, 2012 by caulfield12

[caulfield12]

We do need a RHP that can throw harder than 91-92. Aren't you surprised Jake was able to do as we'll as he did with his weak stuff? Dude learned how to pitch a little bit, but good hitters could smack him around.

 

 

DET certainly had his number all season long.

[caulfield12]

The man nearly has 100 RBIs and is 3rd in HR, most any team would like to have him....We knew all along that he was gonna K a lot and wasn't gonna have a high BA yet most here loved the signing when it happened.

 

How do you plan on replacing close to 100 RBIs?? There are only 15 guys in the MLB with more.

 

 

I'm guessing the argument will be the Moneyball approach....except with better platoon candidates than Kotsay and Jones.

 

For example, trading Dunn, getting a new CFer, moving DeAzo to LF and a DH platoon of Dayan and ????.

The problem is that I'm not sure that Viciedo will continue to 1) develop and 2) rake against LHP if he's only getting playing time once every 3-4 games.

 

So let's just argue for our current roster's sake it would be Wise or Dan Johnson paired with Dayan. Then Dunn's money would be reinvested in 3B, C, pitching, CF, etc.

 

You'd also improve the outfield defense by quite a bit, essentially having 3 CFer's out there.

 

 

Edited October 3, 2012 by caulfield12

[Eminor3rd]

You have to be kidding me.

 

I guess we don't have holes at:

 

3B

C

UTIL

RP

SP (depending on options)

 

He fills in 1 hole, for the amount of money we probably have to fill all 5.

 

You can't magically create players in those positions. Who would you sign? Youkilis is the only thing resembling a decent 3B available in FA. AJ is the best FA C. You're joking if you think we should spend money on a UTIL or RP instead of a frontline starter.

[caulfield12]

You can't magically create players in those positions. Who would you sign? Youkilis is the only thing resembling a decent 3B available in FA. AJ is the best FA C. You're joking if you think we should spend money on a UTIL or RP instead of a frontline starter.

 

If anything, we should be cutting payroll in the form of Thornton, not adding.

 

Crain's not tradeable until he proves he can stay 100% healthy for at least a 3-4 month stretch.

[Eminor3rd]

I don't understand the tweener mentality -- it seems like most of you want to see the Sox go into 2013 with a marginally worse team. If you think it's a lost cause, fine, but then why not blow it up? I say shore it up or tear it down.

Edited October 3, 2012 by Eminor3rd

[bigruss]

You can't magically create players in those positions. Who would you sign? Youkilis is the only thing resembling a decent 3B available in FA. AJ is the best FA C. You're joking if you think we should spend money on a UTIL or RP instead of a frontline starter.

It may not be much per player, but those lesser salaries add up. And Im not saying sign someone for $5m for the bench, just that we have to be wary with what money we do have to spend to fill out the roster. One of the biggest things that got us this year is depth, and I'm sure KW/Hahn will be avoiding that again, and it was really because not many people thought we would be in first place with 2 weeks to go in the season and depth guys weren't as important then.

 

There are also things called trades, and FA or Trades will require cash for those players. Using our $15mm or so in open cash on 1 player is f***ing stupid when you have 2-3 big holes to fill.

 

Especially on one that could so easily blow up in your face.

Edited October 3, 2012 by bigruss22

[bigruss]

I don't understand the tweener mentality -- it seems like most of you want to see the Sox go into 2013 with a marginally worse team. If you think it's a loss cause, fine, but then why not blow it up? I say shore it up or tear it down.

The Sox don't do tear it down, they say that they evaluated doing that last summer but didn't get enough potential return, and it will most likely never be enough return for them to do such a move.

 

And they went the way of spending it up in 2011, and won't take that risk again for awhile. They'll stay around $100mm, because they can afford it, and they'll hope they can get some career years and some great acquisitions to once again make a run.

[kitekrazy]

Hopefully they can find another GM who will be impressed with Dunn's HR and RBIs and ignore his low BA and high K rate. I got a good laugh last night when someone on WSI thought the Yankees would be interested. They probably would if they have another Wilson Betimit to give away.

[Eminor3rd]

That may be correct, but it doesn't sound like the best way to do it. The thread was about YOUR plan, not a prediction.

 

I get what you mean about trades, but you aren't naming any targets, so my original point still stands regarding the players available. Who are you targeting at those positions? What are you paying? Headley's value is premium and we won't be able to get him.

[daggins]

Let walk/ buyout - Peavy, AJP, Myers, Youk

 

Pick up option - Floyd

 

Trade - Rios, to Angels, for Conger

Crain to anybody for anything

Quintana to someone for 3B prospect/project and SP depth

 

Sign - B-MAC or Marcum, and hope Herm can keep em healthy

Scott Hairston

 

C Conger

3B Some Guy

SS Alexei

2B Beckham

1B Paulie

LF Hairston/Danks

CF De Aza

RF Viciedo

DH - Dunn

 

Sale/Floyd/Danks/Bmacormarcum/Santiago or SP Depth

Bullpen - whatever, we've got guys.

 

No use getting too specific before stuff even gets started. This team is fairly cheap and not very good offensively but has the potential to be a very good rotation. Basically, just like how the Sox were coming in to this season. Hope you get a few more career years, some bottled lightning and go to it.

[Marty34]

And they went the way of spending it up in 2011, and won't take that risk again for awhile. They'll stay around $100mm, because they can afford it, and they'll hope they can get some career years and some great acquisitions to once again make a run.

 

I don't know if you are advocated this approach or if you are saying this is what they will do. Either way, building a middle-of-the-pack team inspires nobody.

[Marty34]

I don't understand the tweener mentality -- it seems like most of you want to see the Sox go into 2013 with a marginally worse team. If you think it's a lost cause, fine, but then why not blow it up? I say shore it up or tear it down.

 

+1

[daggins]

The reason most people don't want to see that is because "rebuilding" doesn't usually work. How many teams have been stuck in perpetual rebuild mode?

 

Also, watching terrible baseball is boring, and the Sox have no financial wiggle room already. They have to live and die by the margins and that is what fielding a maybe-competitive team helps them do.

[Cali]

All I know is who I don't want back and that is weak minded players who have a losers mentality.

 

Beckham and Floyd are #1 and 2 on the list.

 

I'm also trading Quintana while his stock is at its highest, and listening to offers on Rios and Konerko and if I'm blown away I make the trade.

[2nd_city_saint787]

The reason most people don't want to see that is because "rebuilding" doesn't usually work. How many teams have been stuck in perpetual rebuild mode?

 

Also, watching terrible baseball is boring, and the Sox have no financial wiggle room already. They have to live and die by the margins and that is what fielding a maybe-competitive team helps them do.

 

People already wanna cast off/dont trust Quintana, Santiago, Tank and Reed lol if the Sox go into a total rebuild mode I can't imagine how terrible this board will be.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Hopefully they can find another GM who will be impressed with Dunn's HR and RBIs and ignore his low BA and high K rate. I got a good laugh last night when someone on WSI thought the Yankees would be interested. They probably would if they have another Wilson Betimit to give away.

 

lol people forget Dunn was an all star this year....voted by his peers...ya his peers are idiots and know nothing about baseball right

[NorthSideSox72]

The way I see it, if I'm Rick Hahn (and we did graduate from the same high school only a year apart), I give Jerry a three scenario presentation....

 

1. Tear it Down - trade away everything that you can get something of value for that has a contract for 7 figures. Acquire all prospects possible. Shoot for 2014 or 2015. Payroll cost: $50-$90M.

 

2. Tweak to improve - this is the plan I started the thread with, basically. Try to get just a little better, which combined with some maturing young players and stretched out pitchers, might give the team the +5 games it needs to get there. Payroll cost: $95M-$105M

 

3. Go for it - need enough money for the Tweak scenario, plus enough to go get a 3B, and a few mill for a better pitcher pickup. This puts the team in the best spot, competitively. Payroll cost: $110-$120M.

 

Which do you think Jerry would want?

 

[LittleHurt05]

The way I see it, if I'm Rick Hahn (and we did graduate from the same high school only a year apart), I give Jerry a three scenario presentation....

 

1. Tear it Down - trade away everything that you can get something of value for that has a contract for 7 figures. Acquire all prospects possible. Shoot for 2014 or 2015. Payroll cost: $50-$90M.

 

2. Tweak to improve - this is the plan I started the thread with, basically. Try to get just a little better, which combined with some maturing young players and stretched out pitchers, might give the team the +5 games it needs to get there. Payroll cost: $95M-$105M

 

3. Go for it - need enough money for the Tweak scenario, plus enough to go get a 3B, and a few mill for a better pitcher pickup. This puts the team in the best spot, competitively. Payroll cost: $110-$120M.

 

Which do you think Jerry would want?

 

I think Jerry would go for #2 right now. He's not the type of person to support #1 unless it got real bad. After the disappointment of "All In", I don't think he would be willing to spend enough for option #3 either.