In typical KW fashion, will his big offseason move be A-Rod?

[spiderman]

Here's the issue that no one seems to be covering. Ok, so you get the Yanks to pick up all but say $5 million per for the next 5 seasons. A-Rod will get $6M each for his 660th, 714th, 755th, 762nd, and 763rd career homers. He’s at 647 dongs right now.

 

So if he hits just 13 whopping homers in 2013, and the Yankees cover all but $5 million of his contract, he becomes an $11 million player. At his current pace, he likely doesn't sniff any of those other milestones, but that is an extra thing to think about when it comes to the White Sox.

 

My assumption is that any team trading for ARod will know details of his contract, and will demand that NY takes on a certain percentage, if not all, of his bonuses.

[oldsox]

These players have nothing in common

Sure they do. They are all in sharp decline. Jones knows it and admits it, even if you don't.

[southsider2k5]

Philly? WTF? How would they have payroll room?

 

http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/...amp;eref=fromSI

 

It can't hurt to ask about Alex Rodriguez, right? [The] fact that a player who was considered one of the best in baseball as recently as a few years ago might be available is at least interesting. The fact that said player happens to play third base is at least intriguing if you're the Philadelphia Phillies. In case you've managed to forget all about the 2012 season - which might be a good thing -- you might recall that third base was a black hole in the infield at Citizens Bank Park this season. If you knew New York was shopping Rodriguez -- and that the deep-pocketed Yanks were willing to eat a large portion of the contract -- would you place a call if you were Ruben Amaro Jr.? Of course you would.

 

Philadelphia Daily News

[NorthSideSox72]

Sure they do. They are all in sharp decline. Jones knows it and admits it, even if you don't.

Dunn is in the opposite of sharp decline - the guy just won comeback player of the year.

 

Also, if you watched Dunn this year, it wasn't that he was behind on fastballs. He's still got plenty of bat speed. For him, that is clearly not the issue.

 

[southsider2k5]

Dunn is in the opposite of sharp decline - the guy just won comeback player of the year.

 

Also, if you watched Dunn this year, it wasn't that he was behind on fastballs. He's still got plenty of bat speed. For him, that is clearly not the issue.

 

Dunn was fine until he pulled his oblique. After that he was worthless.

[NorthSideSox72]

Dunn was fine until he pulled his oblique. After that he was worthless.

He did fall off after that. Which is not the same as being sharp decline.

 

Now, if you want to say you are worried about his health as he goes forward, that makes sense. But when healthy, he has no problem whatsoever catching up to strong fastballs.

 

[southsider2k5]

He did fall off after that. Which is not the same as being sharp decline.

 

Now, if you want to say you are worried about his health as he goes forward, that makes sense. But when healthy, he has no problem whatsoever catching up to strong fastballs.

 

I was agreeing with you, if not very clearly.

[Marty34]

He did fall off after that. Which is not the same as being sharp decline.

 

Now, if you want to say you are worried about his health as he goes forward, that makes sense. But when healthy, he has no problem whatsoever catching up to strong fastballs.

 

Why did he hit .204 and strike out 222 times then?

[NorthSideSox72]

Why did he hit .204 and strike out 222 times then?

Why has he hit low 200's and struck out around 200 every season in his career, nearly? Take out the last few weeks with the oblique injury, and he had almost exactly his career norm year. That just reinforces what your eyes will tell you if you watch him hit - he strikes out a lot, but always has, and hasn't lost any noticeable bat speed.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

I was agreeing with you, if not very clearly.

I figured, but it gave a nice segue into a reason that really is valid to worry about Dunn - he's a big dude getting older, and injuries may become more of an issue as time goes on.

 

[Dick Allen]

I figured, but it gave a nice segue into a reason that really is valid to worry about Dunn - he's a big dude getting older, and injuries may become more of an issue as time goes on.

He did have the second lowest OPs of his career. iMO, he is definitely on the downside, injuries or not.

[TaylorStSox]

Dunn is in the opposite of sharp decline - the guy just won comeback player of the year.

 

Also, if you watched Dunn this year, it wasn't that he was behind on fastballs. He's still got plenty of bat speed. For him, that is clearly not the issue.

The guy hit .159 and .204 in the last 2 years. The year before that, he hit .260. From '10 to this year, his OPS dropped almost 100 points. Come on. When was the oblique injury? He was awful after May, absolutely dreadful. If you don't think that's a sharp decline, I don't know what the hell one is. I'm not a Dunn hater by any means, but let's get back to reality. If you don't think he's lost bat speed, then you're in complete denial.

 

That Comeback Player of the Year award's an absolute joke. Rios had such a better year than Dunn it's laughable to even compare.

[Marty34]

Why has he hit low 200's and struck out around 200 every season in his career, nearly? Take out the last few weeks with the oblique injury, and he had almost exactly his career norm year. That just reinforces what your eyes will tell you if you watch him hit - he strikes out a lot, but always has, and hasn't lost any noticeable bat speed.

 

Dunn was 30 K's above and 35 points below his career averages in K's and AVG respectively. I think it's wishful thinking to believe he "hasn't lost any noticeable bat speed."

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The guy hit .159 and .204 in the last 2 years. The year before that, he hit .260. From '10 to this year, his OPS dropped almost 100 points. Come on. When was the oblique injury? He was awful after May, absolutely dreadful. If you don't think that's a sharp decline, I don't know what the hell one is. I'm not a Dunn hater by any means, but let's get back to reality. If you don't think he's lost bat speed, then you're in complete denial.

 

That Comeback Player of the Year award's an absolute joke. Rios had such a better year than Dunn it's laughable to even compare.

 

 

Dunn was 30 K's above and 35 points below his career averages in K's and AVG respectively. I think it's wishful thinking to believe he "hasn't lost any noticeable bat speed."

 

People like easy solutions. Loss of bat speed would seem to be. But if you actually watched him hit, you would see he was rarely behind the fastball.

 

And I think its interesting you two seem to be able to ignore the fact that his OPS jumped 200+ points, and all his other stats of value went up so much since last year. Clearly not a player in decline.

 

You don't think is oblique injury in August had an effect? His OPS numbers were .881, .976, .769 and .789 in april, May, June and July. August and September he was in the high 600's. Plus, again, if you actually watched the games instead of just looking at numbers, you could SEE it on him when he was playing hurt... then was out... then came back and still looked not quite right.

 

Also worth noting... who else dropped off in offensive numbers after May or June? Was it the guy hitting right behind him? You don't think that had an effect?

 

Look, he may fall off next year, I don't pretend to know. But the evidence all suggests he is anything but a guy losing bat speed.

 

[Marty34]

Look, he may fall off next year, I don't pretend to know. But the evidence all suggests he is anything but a guy losing bat speed.

 

In the end, quibbling over bat speed is silly. His contract is a detriment to the team for its duration.

 

[southsider2k5]

In the end, quibbling over bat speed is silly. His contract is a detriment to the team for its duration.

 

The reverberations from Ozzie's time here are amazing. We are still suffering because he wanted Mark f***ing Kotsay instead of Jim Thome.

[NorthSideSox72]

In the end, quibbling over bat speed is silly. His contract is a detriment to the team for its duration.

Now that I might agree with. Maybe. After last year, he needed to come back big, and he did. He now needs to show he's back to more or less "normal" Adam Dunn, which would mean further (but smaller) improvement from 2012. If he does that, the contract is a heavy weight, but he earns it more or less. If he falls short, it starts to become a bigger problem.

 

And I am actually concerned about injuries with him.

 

[Marty34]

The reverberations from Ozzie's time here are amazing. We are still suffering because he wanted Mark f***ing Kotsay instead of Jim Thome.

 

I'll accept that, but he had more to do with Freddy Garcia being in a Sox uniform than he did Mark Kotsay.

Edited October 23, 2012 by Marty34

[NorthSideSox72]

I'll accept that, but he had more to do with Freddy Garcia being in a Sox uniform than he did Mark Kotsay.

Mark Kotsay being a starter and main DH was 100% Ozzie. KW specifically wanted Thome, Ozzie said no I want a guy who plays the field, so Kotsay was his DH and occasional 1B.

 

[Marty34]

Mark Kotsay being a starter and main DH was 100% Ozzie. KW specifically wanted Thome, Ozzie said no I want a guy who plays the field, so Kotsay was his DH and occasional 1B.

 

Absolve KW of any blame for Thome, but Guillen gets the credit for Garcia then.

[southsider2k5]

Mark Kotsay being a starter and main DH was 100% Ozzie. KW specifically wanted Thome, Ozzie said no I want a guy who plays the field, so Kotsay was his DH and occasional 1B.

 

Yep. And his flop forced Kenny to go out and chase Dunn, both at the trading deadline, which led to the Edwin Jackson/Hudson debacle, and then to give him a 4 year contract to fill the hole at DH.

[LittleHurt05]

Absolve KW of any blame for Thome, but Guillen gets the credit for Garcia then.

 

Ozzie was involved in the negotiations with Seattle to trade for Freddy Garcia?

[LittleHurt05]

He did have the second lowest OPs of his career. iMO, he is definitely on the downside, injuries or not.

 

 

I'm with you. At the All-Star break his OPS was still only .859, and I believe that was pre-injury. In the last 8 seasons before 2011, he only had one season worse than that, and then it was only at .855. He's not done for, but I don't think we can expect all that much more than he did last year.

[Jake]

Dunn's run/RBI production last year made his contract fair. If all he does is have similar seasons, I'm honestly okay with that. In the end, my philosophy is that your typical metrics like BA, OPS, K's are just things we used to project someone's potential to contribute runs to the team (either by scoring them or driving them in). Those metrics are cause for concern, but if he wants to hit 40+ HR and 95+ RBI along with being 2nd on the team in runs scored (I think) then I'm okay with his contract, especially considering that it isn't real long term at this point.

 

As for his bat speed, not the issue. He isn't behind fastballs, he just misses them often. It's arguably a more fixable problem.

 

Absolve KW of any blame for Thome, but Guillen gets the credit for Garcia then.

 

O RLY?

 

Ozzie was involved in the negotiations with Seattle to trade for Freddy Garcia?

 

Exactly.

 

To say "dump player X because I like player Y on our own roster better" is an easily executable move. To say "Freddy Garcia the All-Star and ace pitcher is worth trading for, go get him" is super easy to say. Hey Kenny, dream big! Get Mike Trout! See, I have great trade ideas too. KW still gets a good share of the credit for Freddy because he negotiated the trade, managed to give away nothing, then robbed the Phillies blind when we dealt Freddy away.

 

[TaylorStSox]

Dunn's run/RBI production last year made his contract fair. If all he does is have similar seasons, I'm honestly okay with that. In the end, my philosophy is that your typical metrics like BA, OPS, K's are just things we used to project someone's potential to contribute runs to the team (either by scoring them or driving them in). Those metrics are cause for concern, but if he wants to hit 40+ HR and 95+ RBI along with being 2nd on the team in runs scored (I think) then I'm okay with his contract, especially considering that it isn't real long term at this point.

 

As for his bat speed, not the issue. He isn't behind fastballs, he just misses them often. It's arguably a more fixable problem.

 

 

 

O RLY?

 

 

 

Exactly.

 

To say "dump player X because I like player Y on our own roster better" is an easily executable move. To say "Freddy Garcia the All-Star and ace pitcher is worth trading for, go get him" is super easy to say. Hey Kenny, dream big! Get Mike Trout! See, I have great trade ideas too. KW still gets a good share of the credit for Freddy because he negotiated the trade, managed to give away nothing, then robbed the Phillies blind when we dealt Freddy away.

Over Dunn's last 1145 PA's he's hitting .181. Think about that for a second. He still has power, but a drop in BA like that is a huge sign a guy's losing bat speed. He can still get the bat through the zone occasionally, but not consistently.