In typical KW fashion, will his big offseason move be A-Rod?

[southsider2k5]

Over Dunn's last 1145 PA's he's hitting .181. Think about that for a second. He still has power, but a drop in BA like that is a huge sign a guy's losing bat speed. He can still get the bat through the zone occasionally, but not consistently.

 

He tore his oblique and lost bat speed, imagine that.

[Dick Allen]

He tore his oblique and lost bat speed, imagine that.

I don't know about his bat speed per se, but when he originally hurt his oblique he was hitting .205 with an .820 OPS, and was on pace to shatter the single season strikeout record. If anyone wants his contrct, the Sox would be foolish not to oblige. He can have all the bat speed in the world, if you swing and miss, it doesn't matter.

[LittleHurt05]

I don't know about his bat speed per se, but when he originally hurt his oblique he was hitting .205 with an .820 OPS, and was on pace to shatter the single season strikeout record. If anyone wants his contrct, the Sox would be foolish not to oblige. He can have all the bat speed in the world, if you swing and miss, it doesn't matter.

 

 

Exactly. Everyone got so excited because he was "back", but his numbers were still worse than his average season in Cincinnati.

[TaylorStSox]

b****esname='southsider2k5' date='Oct 24, 2012 -> 07:56 AM' post='2718711']

He tore his oblique and lost bat speed, imagine that.

So now you're saying he did lose bat soeed? Which is it?

[southsider2k5]

b****esname='southsider2k5' date='Oct 24, 2012 -> 07:56 AM' post='2718711']

He tore his oblique and lost bat speed, imagine that.

 

So now you're saying he did lose bat soeed? Which is it?

 

???

[2nd_city_saint787]

b****esname='southsider2k5' date='Oct 24, 2012 -> 07:56 AM' post='2718711']

He tore his oblique and lost bat speed, imagine that.

 

So now you're saying he did lose bat soeed? Which is it?

 

 

What happened there?

 

You try tearing your oblique and swing a bat with the same torque and speed as before, it's not gonna happen.

[southsider2k5]

What happened there?

 

You try tearing your oblique and swing a bat with the same torque and speed as before, it's not gonna happen.

 

Exactly. His bat speed for fine for about the first half of the season. He tore his oblique and that went away. It isn't a complex statement here. It would be like judging Derrick Rose's breakaway speed based on how he looked during his rehab.

[TaylorStSox]

What happened there?

 

You try tearing your oblique and swing a bat with the same torque and speed as before, it's not gonna happen.

Quote fail. He knew what I was asking.

[NorthSideSox72]

Quote fail. He knew what I was asking.

I can't speak for him, but I am saying that prior to the injury, he had no trouble catching up to fastballs. After that, it was hit and miss (figuratively and literally), based on the injury.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

I can't speak for him, but I am saying that prior to the injury, he had no trouble catching up to fastballs. After that, it was hit and miss (figuratively and literally), based on the injury.

He still was having the second worst season of his career pre-injury, and was on apace to fan 240 times.

[TaylorStSox]

I can't speak for him, but I am saying that prior to the injury, he had no trouble catching up to fastballs. After that, it was hit and miss (figuratively and literally), based on the injury.

There's simply a direct correlation between bat speed and BA. Dunn's hitting. 181 over his last 1100+ at bats. It's not some coincidence and the problem was apparent well before his oblique tear. Catching up to fastballs has more to do with guessing right than bat speed. Bat speed allows a hitter to make adjustments when he's fooled and still generate hits.

 

It happens to everyone. It's happening to Dunn earlier than most. It's cause for concern. Well, obviously there's concern when a guy is hitting. 181 over 1145 at bats. God, that's awful.

 

I forgot to add that it's also why he misses balls by a foot. He has to get started early. When he's fooled, it's ugly.

Edited October 24, 2012 by TaylorStSox

[cabiness42]

He still was having the second worst season of his career pre-injury, and was on apace to fan 240 times.

 

Stop comparing the 2012 Adam Dunn and start making more relevant comparisons:

 

Even with the injury, the 2012 Adam Dunn had an OPS that was 231 points higher than the 2011 Adam Dunn.

 

Even with the injury, the 2012 Adam Dunn had an OBP that was only one point below Rios, a little bit better than AJ, and a lot better than Viciedo, Beckham, and Ramirez.

 

I get that Dunn isn't producing like we expect for somebody with his salary, but the reality is that the 2013 Sox are worse without him than with him, unless there is some really dumb GM out there that will make some insane kind of deal. Yes, you can probably unload him and most or maybe even all of his salary, but that isn't going to make the team better in 2013.

 

[Dick Allen]

Stop comparing the 2012 Adam Dunn and start making more relevant comparisons:

 

Even with the injury, the 2012 Adam Dunn had an OPS that was 231 points higher than the 2011 Adam Dunn.

 

Even with the injury, the 2012 Adam Dunn had an OBP that was only one point below Rios, a little bit better than AJ, and a lot better than Viciedo, Beckham, and Ramirez.

 

I get that Dunn isn't producing like we expect for somebody with his salary, but the reality is that the 2013 Sox are worse without him than with him, unless there is some really dumb GM out there that will make some insane kind of deal. Yes, you can probably unload him and most or maybe even all of his salary, but that isn't going to make the team better in 2013.

If you can unload him and spend the money on alternative players. Would it shock anyone If Dunn hit .170 next season? The injury is a great excuse but he wasn't all that great from late May on.

[cabiness42]

If you can unload him and spend the money on alternative players. Would it shock anyone If Dunn hit .170 next season? The injury is a great excuse but he wasn't all that great from late May on.

 

There aren't 'alternative players' you can get for that money that will be any better and yes, it would shock me if he hit .170 next season. Not only did Dunn get worse due to his own ailments, but he got worse when his protection behind him in the order went downhill in the second half.

 

[Dick Allen]

There aren't 'alternative players' you can get for that money that will be any better and yes, it would shock me if he hit .170 next season. Not only did Dunn get worse due to his own ailments, but he got worse when his protection behind him in the order went downhill in the second half.

Sure blame Konerko for Dunn. Check Dunn's numbers for June, July and August. He got hurt August 31st he was hitting .205 with an ,820 Ops on pace to shatter the steikeout record. He finished at .204 with a .800 ops. He is nowhere near worth what he is paid. If the Sox could reinvest that $15 million a year wisely, they would be a better team.

[witesoxfan]

Why did he hit .204 and strike out 222 times then?

 

He hit .204 because he had the 2nd worst BABIP of his career at .246, which is way below his career norm of .288. USCF typically suppresses BABIP some, but not 40 points of average worth. He also had the 2nd highest line drive rate of his career at 22.4% (highest was 23.5% in 2006, when he hit .236). Line drives really aren't great for Dunn though, because he typically hits 1 of every 5 flyballs out of the park. If he's hitting line drives, it generally means he's hitting the piss out of the balls into the shift. They are obviously preferable to ground balls, but that seems obvious to me.

 

Oh, and he struck out 222 times because he swings as hard as he can pretty much at all times. He's going to miss the ball a lot.

[NorthSideSox72]

There's simply a direct correlation between bat speed and BA. Dunn's hitting. 181 over his last 1100+ at bats. It's not some coincidence and the problem was apparent well before his oblique tear. Catching up to fastballs has more to do with guessing right than bat speed. Bat speed allows a hitter to make adjustments when he's fooled and still generate hits.

 

It happens to everyone. It's happening to Dunn earlier than most. It's cause for concern. Well, obviously there's concern when a guy is hitting. 181 over 1145 at bats. God, that's awful.

 

I forgot to add that it's also why he misses balls by a foot. He has to get started early. When he's fooled, it's ugly.

Correlation would indicate two strings of data. You have one - batting average. Show me how he does on fastballs at various velocities, then you can call it a correlation.

 

Catching up with fastballs was just not his issue.

 

[TaylorStSox]

Correlation would indicate two strings of data. You have one - batting average. Show me how he does on fastballs at various velocities, then you can call it a correlation.

 

Catching up with fastballs was just not his issue.

I actually came up with 2. His swings and misses are a result of starting early to compensate for his lack of bat speed.

[2nd_city_saint787]

http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-...-fastballs.html

 

END DISCUSSION

[TaylorStSox]

http://www.baseballanalytics.org/baseball-...-fastballs.html

 

END DISCUSSION

That's from May. As I said before, for Dunn, hitting fastballs has more to do with getting started early than bat speed.

[NorthSideSox72]

I actually came up with 2. His swings and misses are a result of starting early to compensate for his lack of bat speed.

 

I think you don't understand what correlation means.

 

That's from May. As I said before, for Dunn, hitting fastballs has more to do with getting started early than bat speed.

 

So he suddenly lost bat speed after May? Why?

[TaylorStSox]

I think you don't understand what correlation means.

 

 

 

So he suddenly lost bat speed after May? Why?

I don't think you know what it takes to hit a fastball. I'm not going to repeat myself. If you can think of a plausible reason for Dunn hitting. 181 in over 1100 plate appearances I'm all ears. Don't bring up an injury from the end of the year. Maybe 1100+ plate appearances is too small a sample size.

[NorthSideSox72]

I don't think you know what it takes to hit a fastball. I'm not going to repeat myself. If you can think of a plausible reason for Dunn hitting. 181 in over 1100 plate appearances I'm all ears. Don't bring up an injury from the end of the year. Maybe 1100+ plate appearances is too small a sample size.

My explanation for the fact that his OPS went up 200 points over last year? That he had one of the biggest comebacks of the year? I don't have one, I think its complicated.

 

My explanation for why he dropped off late in the season? The injury is certainly part of it. June and July? Hard to say, but there is exactly zero evidence that it was him not catching up to fastballs. If you can find some, let me know.

 

 

[TaylorStSox]

My explanation for the fact that his OPS went up 200 points over last year? That he had one of the biggest comebacks of the year? I don't have one, I think its complicated.

 

My explanation for why he dropped off late in the season? The injury is certainly part of it. June and July? Hard to say, but there is exactly zero evidence that it was him not catching up to fastballs. If you can find some, let me know.

That's has nothing to do with my argument.

 

All these things are related.

A. Adam Dunn has lost bat speed.

B. Adam Dunn compensates by starting his swing early.

C. Adam Dunn can't adjust when he starts early.

D. Adam Dunn doesn't get many cheap hits and can't fight pitches off.

E. Adam Dunn has seen his BA drop. 060 from his career norms over the last 1100+ plate appearances.

 

Players with similar drop offs after losing bat speed, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, Frank Thomas.

[NorthSideSox72]

That's has nothing to do with my argument.

 

All these things are related.

A. Adam Dunn has lost bat speed.

B. Adam Dunn compensates by starting his swing early.

C. Adam Dunn can't adjust when he starts early.

D. Adam Dunn doesn't get many cheap hits and can't fight pitches off.

E. Adam Dunn has seen his BA drop. 060 from his career norms over the last 1100+ plate appearances.

 

Players with similar drop offs after losing bat speed, Alex Rodriguez, Andruw Jones, Frank Thomas.

A is an assumption you are making with no data to back it up. How do you know he isn't missing more change ups? Breaking pitches? Slower fastballs? The guy said himself he was out ahead too often at one point, and you could see that if you watched him hit. Everything after A is a possible scenario, if A is true, which there is no data to say is the case.