Predict the Election

[Jake]

not sure what's going on in that video. Hugo Chavez bad and Obama bad? is that the narrative?

 

 

Chavez says that he would support/vote for Obama if he were American. Then it cuts to Fidel Castro's daughter, who I believe is actually an American citizen, saying she would vote for Obama. It then mentions that the EPA sent out an email that had a picture of Che Guevara in it (this actually happened, some "rogue" staffer sent it out as a joke without permission). Then it cuts back to Hugo Chavez claiming that if Obama were Venezuelan, Obama would vote Chavez.

 

Then Romney says he approves the message in a fairly heavily American accent, lol (I am just a tick short of fluent in Spanish now 8))

 

 

With a few days remaining, does Romney truly have a shot at this?

 

I have a gut feeling that as bad as Obama is, Romney might be the worst president ever, even worse than Quayle would have been. And I'm a lifelong Republican saying this.

 

Romney has a shot, but not much of one. If Rasmussen is the lone correct polling service, like many in certain echo chambers believe, then Romney will have a great Tuesday. However, it doesn't have a great track record, despite putting more resources into their polls than just about anyone not named Gallup. They have had 4+ point Republican leans in a couple elections. There was one election when they came out looking decent, at least in the choosing of winners, though.

 

I don't think at this point anything could change much voter-wise, so the only way Romney has a chance is if all of our information has been incorrect or something random happens -- it won't really be possible to know if he won because of the 10-20% chance he does happens or if the polling data was incorrect. It's the toughest part of political science, there are very few events to judge your models against.

[GoSox05]

You can. Or you can write someone else in, which is a favorite of mine.

 

 

Cool. I just wanted to make sure they wouldn't toss my ballot for missing a spot.

 

I will now vote for me for Congress.

[Jake]

Cool. I just wanted to make sure they wouldn't toss my ballot for missing a spot.

 

I will now vote for me for Congress.

 

Unfortunately, your vote won't be counted

 

Your ballot will count, but no one will know that you voted for yourself -- they don't tabulate write-ins unless there are enough write-ins cast that if they were all the same person, they'd win.

 

[Brian]

Voted early a few days ago. Didnt know their would be 4 candidates for president. Was just expecting the 3.

[southsider2k5]

Cool. I just wanted to make sure they wouldn't toss my ballot for missing a spot.

 

I will now vote for me for Congress.

 

Your ballot is still valid, even it contains an "undervote" (a blank vote in a particular race). You could literally go in and vote for one single race (say just for President) and it would be a valid ballot.

[JPN366]

My guess is at the end...

 

Link

[MexSoxFan#1]

<!--quoteo(post=2721485:date=Nov 1, 2012 -> 07:00 PM:name=MexSoxFan#1)-->

<!--quotec-->The thing I want to know is, do we have a 3 pt lead with the ball or on defense. Makes a world of difference.

 

with ads like this, Romney will surely win the coveted Hispanic vote

 

Wait what? That's actually a real Romney ad? I thought it was a spoof or something, lol. Romney's got my vote now after watching that clip...SMH.

 

Professor Wang over at Princeton Election Consortium has it Obama 319 to Romney 219. This guy got the exact EV count for Bush/Kerry and was 1 EV off in Obama/McCain.

 

http://election.princeton.edu/

[greg775]

Isn't it true that the candidates will know who won even before Election Day begins?

I read somewhere that candidates know exactly what is going to happen at 5 a.m. on Election Day.

[StrangeSox]

...no??

[Reddy]

Isn't it true that the candidates will know who won even before Election Day begins?

I read somewhere that candidates know exactly what is going to happen at 5 a.m. on Election Day.

that, my friend, is what's called a conspiracy theory.

[NorthSideSox72]

Isn't it true that the candidates will know who won even before Election Day begins?

I read somewhere that candidates know exactly what is going to happen at 5 a.m. on Election Day.

Are Mitt and Barack going to spend Monday night hanging out in a Hot Tub Time Machine?

 

WTF?

 

[clyons]

Are Mitt and Barack going to spend Monday night hanging out in a Hot Tub Time Machine?

 

Of course not. Those only go backwards. They will use a DeLorean.

 

[Jake]

Nate Silver's article today basically lays out the current status of the election. If polls are reliable at all, Obama is about to win. Maybe not by a ton, but he will win. The uncertainty in his model is almost solely the off chance that most polls are leaning Democrat by >1 point.

[greg775]

Are Mitt and Barack going to spend Monday night hanging out in a Hot Tub Time Machine?

 

WTF?

 

I swear I read a book once that said some candidate knew from advance polling he'd lost when he was on his way to vote and had to put on a happy face. He knew he had lost.

[knightni]

Alabama beat LSU yesterday. Hisorically, that means that Obama should defeat Romney.

 

http://keepingscore.blogs.time.com/2012/11...ntial-election/

[Y2HH]

My prediction is an Obama win.

 

I do, however, also predict Romney wins the popular vote, which will be hilarious when all the democrat drones who wanted to do away with the electoral college suddenly and silently come to its defense this time around. I love it when people turn themselves into hypocrites years later when the very thing they were vehemently outspoken against suddenly helps their cause.

 

For the record, I'm in favor of the electoral college, but for reasons to be discussed in another thread at another time.

 

For full disclosure I hope neither Obama nor Romney win, despite knowing one of them will.

[SOXOBAMA]

As of 8:30 this morn, Obama is ahead or tied in every national or tracking poll. Romney has no lead in any national poll.

[Reddy]

As of 8:30 this morn, Obama is ahead or tied in every national or tracking poll. Romney has no lead in any national poll.

game. set. match.

[Reddy]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/la...olls/elections/

 

just start scrolling and lemme know what you notice. color-wise.

[StrangeSox]

I swear I read a book once that said some candidate knew from advance polling he'd lost when he was on his way to vote and had to put on a happy face. He knew he had lost.

 

Well plenty of candidates have been down huge in the polls and know that there's no real chance of them winning. That probably applies to McCain in 2008, but not 2005 or 2000.

[StrangeSox]

My prediction is an Obama win.

 

I do, however, also predict Romney wins the popular vote, which will be hilarious when all the democrat drones who wanted to do away with the electoral college suddenly and silently come to its defense this time around. I love it when people turn themselves into hypocrites years later when the very thing they were vehemently outspoken against suddenly helps their cause.

 

For the record, I'm in favor of the electoral college, but for reasons to be discussed in another thread at another time.

 

For full disclosure I hope neither Obama nor Romney win, despite knowing one of them will.

 

The electoral college is s*** and should be abolished.

 

But it's existence has an impact on the national vote totals. You can't assume that what happens on Tuesday is the same voting pattern that would emerge in a true national vote.

[Reddy]

The electoral college is s*** and should be abolished.

 

But it's existence has an impact on the national vote totals. You can't assume that what happens on Tuesday is the same voting pattern that would emerge in a true national vote.

the electoral college has problems, but a pure popular vote isn't the answer either, because it disenfranchises people in rural areas. i'm not sure what the answer is though.

[Jake]

the electoral college has problems, but a pure popular vote isn't the answer either, because it disenfranchises people in rural areas. i'm not sure what the answer is though.

 

You'll have to tell me how my vote counts less in Pontiac, Illinois in a popular vote versus the electoral college

[SouthsideDon48]

Wait what? That's actually a real Romney ad? I thought it was a spoof or something, lol. Romney's got my vote now after watching that clip...SMH.

 

Professor Wang over at Princeton Election Consortium has it Obama 319 to Romney 219. This guy got the exact EV count for Bush/Kerry and was 1 EV off in Obama/McCain.

 

http://election.princeton.edu/

Professor Wang predicted Obama 319 to Romney 219??? LMAO. That's the same thing I predicted. Lol, I love how a Princton guy predicted the same thing I did, lol.

 

319-219, book it!

[Y2HH]

The electoral college is s*** and should be abolished.

 

But it's existence has an impact on the national vote totals. You can't assume that what happens on Tuesday is the same voting pattern that would emerge in a true national vote.

 

I disagree, completely.

 

If you thought about it -- at all -- you'd realize why a pure popular vote is a terrible idea. Then again, most people haven't bothered to think about it, because it's not popular to think for yourself these days, but repeat what others tell you. Just so happens that the current Democrat montra is electoral college = bad, because massive expanding population of voters on your side = good, at least while it's in their favor, that is. I'm not saying the electoral college is perfect, and perhaps a better system could replace it, but I am saying moving to a pure popular vote opens elections up to a multitude of problems, including what they call in corporate world, a hostile takeover. If you spent any amount of time *truly* thinking about it, you'd realize how bad of an idea this is.

 

A pure popular vote would silence minority populations, be they white, black, catholic, jewish, etc...and make it so only the vast majority is heard -- and in a more dangerous yet conceivable situation -- even if it's a specific majority that rises, be it based on race or religion.

 

That's NOT what we do here anymore, and for good reason. I thought we've learned what this can do to a nation already? Need people see signs such as 'whites only' again in order to remind you what happens when a single majority rises and can control elections? Like I said, think about it.

Edited November 4, 2012 by Y2HH