Predict the Election

[mr_genius]

Right now it's not looking too good for mittens. Trails by a couple points in a bunch of states he needs to win.

[bmags]

Right now it's not looking too good for mittens. Trails by a couple points in a bunch of states he needs to win.

 

But is leading by a point nationally.

 

I don't believe this will be a pop vote diff. than state vote election. So either the state polls or the national polls are wrong. Typically it's the national, but I think it's closer for Romney than the state polls indicate.

[mr_genius]

looks like the experts are following my lead by calling into question Nate Silver's brilliance.

 

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/1...win-147618.html

 

Nate Silver: One-term celebrity?

 

For all the confidence Silver puts in his predictions, he often gives the impression of hedging. Which, given all the variables involved in a presidential election, isn't surprising. For this reason and others — and this may shock the coffee-drinking NPR types of Seattle, San Francisco and Madison, Wis. — more than a few political pundits and reporters, including some of his own colleagues, believe Silver is highly overrated.

[mr_genius]

But is leading by a point nationally.

 

I don't believe this will be a pop vote diff. than state vote election. So either the state polls or the national polls are wrong. Typically it's the national, but I think it's closer for Romney than the state polls indicate.

 

Supposedly, there are a couple new polls out that show Ohio a tie, or a Romney lead. It was reported on FOX therefore one of the polls was Rasmussen, so who knows.

Edited October 29, 2012 by mr_genius

[StrangeSox]

looks like the experts are following my lead by calling into question Nate Silver's brilliance.

 

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/1...win-147618.html

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/20...e-silver/58460/

[StrangeSox]

Supposedly, there are a couple new polls out that show Ohio a tie, or a Romney lead. It was reported on FOX therefore one of the polls was Rasmussen, so who knows.

 

There was the Rasmussen poll today but I think that's it

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/20...obama-1860.html

[Soxbadger]

looks like the experts are following my lead by calling into question Nate Silver's brilliance.

 

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/1...win-147618.html

 

lol

 

All stats are nothing more than hedges. Silver (whether right or wrong) uses multiple polls and weighs them based on a subjective standard, so his method is just simply more data with his subjective bias.

 

I dont think anyone followed your lead on this, its just what you should learn in grade school stats.

 

Just because the coin should land heads 50% of the time, doesnt mean it will.

 

For a more complex example, even if the Sox are leading by 10 runs in the 9th and the probability of their winning is 99.9%, it doesnt mean the model is wrong if they win that game. It just means that it was a very unlikely outcome given the CURRENT data.

 

If Romney were to win, Silver's subjective model would change.

 

Seems like everyone is agreeing with me these days:

 

Statistic models are built to predict the more likely outcome, predicting the actual outcome is fortunetelling and I assume if Nate Silver was a fortuneteller he wouldnt need to write to make a living.

 

Models are always evolving. And none of this matters, the game is going to be played, well find out soon enough.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Soxbadger

[mr_genius]

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/20...e-silver/58460/

 

well, from the people i know, the Conservatives all have engineering, math, business, or tech degrees. But I suppose no of us are mad at Silver and my anecdotal evidence may be worse than Silver's statistics.

 

 

Also, my brilliant liberal friends have no degree, or arts degree, and definitely can't solve a math problem. but they have lots of books in their house (the books are there to prove how smart they are)

[mr_genius]

Just because the coin should land heads 50% of the time, doesnt mean it will.

 

oh well look who's back, the coin flip expert.

[MexSoxFan#1]

http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/20...e-silver/58460/

Silver has O winning 296 EVs while RCP has him winning 290 on the no toss ups map...

[mr_genius]

I dont think anyone followed your lead on this, its just what you should learn in grade school stats.

 

[Soxbadger]

oh well look who's back, the coin flip expert.

 

When someone cant grasp the difficult concept, I have to start at the most basic.

 

I liked your comment about all your conservative friends are math/science and all your liberal cant do a math problem.

 

Your bias is hilarious.

 

 

[Soxbadger]

 

Did you just meme yourself?

 

Because you are the one who is acting like understanding math is some difficult concept.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Soxbadger

[mr_genius]

Because you are the one who is acting like understanding math is some difficult concept.

 

no, actually, i'm not. but if you must know i have actually taken plenty of mathematics back in the day while navigating my way through school. but that's irrelevant. we want to hear about how smart you are.

[mr_genius]

When someone cant grasp the difficult concept, I have to start at the most basic.

 

 

thank you for your kindness and patience while sharing your most exceptional wisdom and intellect.

[Soxbadger]

no, actually, i'm not. but if you must know i have actually taken plenty of mathematics back in the day while navigating my way through school. but that's irrelevant. we want to hear about how smart you are.

 

yeah actually you are

 

looks like the experts are following my lead by calling into question Nate Silver's brilliance.

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/1...win-147618.html

 

 

You didnt even get that my comment was nothing more than a joke about you patting yourself.

 

(edit)

 

Do you really not get that I am only saying those things because you keep claiming to be some sort of expert because of your anecdotal relationships?

Edited October 29, 2012 by Soxbadger

[mr_genius]

you keep claiming to be some sort of expert because of your anecdotal relationships?

 

anecdotal evidence is the most reliable. as a high powered lawyer you should know this.

 

Edited October 29, 2012 by mr_genius

[Soxbadger]

Hearsay (without an exception) is not considered reliable.

 

Much like statistics.

 

Hiyooo

 

 

[mr_genius]

You didnt even get that my comment was nothing more than a joke about you patting yourself.

 

any post that calls Joe Scarborough an expert is very likely to be joke post in itself. even better if it's a joke that is worked into a Nate Silver critique.

[Soxbadger]

any post that calls Joe Scarborough an expert is very likely to be joke post in itself. even better if it's a joke that is worked into a Nate Silver critique.

 

Dont know who Joe Scarborough is. I hate political commentary.

[Cknolls]

Hey regardless what you think about Rasmussen, give the man some props for giving us ESPN.

[bmags]

Hey regardless what you think about Rasmussen, give the man some props for giving us ESPN.

 

Yay ESPN, thank you for filling my life with terrible Football Pregame Segments (WHERE YOU AT! STOP IT! ALL CLASSIC) and Tebowmania. And Heat Index.

[HuskyCaucasian]

Obama wins. Not because I am a supporter, but because a lot of the prediction models agree it will be him. He takes Ohio and PA.

[cabiness42]

Yay ESPN, thank you for filling my life with terrible Football Pregame Segments (WHERE YOU AT! STOP IT! ALL CLASSIC) and Tebowmania. And Heat Index.

 

Nobody forces you to watch ESPN if you don't like their content. My life is filled with other channels or stuff from the DVR while ESPN is running Tebowmania and Heat Index.

[bmags]

Nobody forces you to watch ESPN if you don't like their content. My life is filled with other channels or stuff from the DVR while ESPN is running Tebowmania and Heat Index.

 

Okay, so why are we giving him props?