Predict the Election

[mr_genius]

links to the early voting numbers you are talking about?

 

I found this

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fi...tperforms-2008/

 

 

[Soxbadger]

According to people with knowledge, early voting favors Democrats. So they should see leads early.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

The only place where the early voting party affiliation is meaningful, IMO, is in the states heavily effected by Sandy. The storm obviously throws a wrench in things for some people in some key swing states, particularly VA, PA and NH. In the case of PA and VA, the storm more directly impacted voting capacity in the areas of the state (SE PA and NE VA) that are precisely where the Dems get their votes in each. That might have an effect.

 

 

[StrangeSox]

I thought Philly was largely unscathed while the more rural counties were hit harder with power outages? PA doesn't allow early voting, anyway, but Sandy is an excellent argument for greatly increased voting opportunities. What if this storm had struck next Monday or Tuesday? Should the results of so many elections hinge on who happened to be able to make it to the polls on that one particular day in the middle of a huge storm?

[NorthSideSox72]

I thought Philly was largely unscathed while the more rural counties were hit harder with power outages? PA doesn't allow early voting, anyway, but Sandy is an excellent argument for greatly increased voting opportunities. What if this storm had struck next Monday or Tuesday? Should the results of so many elections hinge on who happened to be able to make it to the polls on that one particular day in the middle of a huge storm?

I read the storm center went right over central Philly.

 

But I didn't know that PA didn't allow early voting, so that is interesting.

 

And I agree, by the way, I think the best way to handle voting is over a 2 week block of time (give or take), not 1 day.

 

[StrangeSox]

It got hit by the storm for sure, but I don't think they had anything like the problems New York had.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/mo...-fortunate.html

 

Meanwhile, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter is "breathing a sigh of relief."

[NorthSideSox72]

It got hit by the storm for sure, but I don't think they had anything like the problems New York had.

 

http://www.bizjournals.com/philadelphia/mo...-fortunate.html

Well yeah, obviously the Jersey and NY shore areas were what got it the worst. I don't remember indicating otherwise.

 

 

[mr_genius]

Well yeah, obviously the Jersey and NY shore areas were what got it the worst. I don't remember indicating otherwise.

 

New Jersey got messed up!

[Jake]

According to people with knowledge, early voting favors Democrats. So they should see leads early.

 

Almost had to be the case with BO carrying 10+ point leads. It's funny how Democrats seem to carry high-priority, habitual voters (research shows that early voting attracts almost solely habitual voters) but also rely heavily on low-priority voters that show up sporadically, especially low incomes

[Jake]

We have basically the worst turnout of any country and while much of that has to do with our antiquated "winner-take-all" system, most countries with far better turnouts make election day a national holiday (some fine you a small amount for not voting, which I'm truly not against if nobody is working that day anyway)

[StrangeSox]

Well yeah, obviously the Jersey and NY shore areas were what got it the worst. I don't remember indicating otherwise.

I'm just saying that i don't think pa was heavily affected, at least relatively.

[bmags]

This is a great quote of explanation of probability by Nate Silver:

Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will.

 

But it turns out that an N.F.L. team that leads by a field goal with three minutes left to go winds up winning the game 79 percent of the time. Those were Mr. Obama’s chances in the FiveThirtyEight forecast as of Wednesday: 79 percent.

[MexSoxFan#1]

This is a great quote of explanation of probability by Nate Silver:

The thing I want to know is, do we have a 3 pt lead with the ball or on defense. Makes a world of difference.

[Jake]

The thing I want to know is, do we have a 3 pt lead with the ball or on defense. Makes a world of difference.

with ads like this, Romney will surely win the coveted Hispanic vote

[mr_genius]

<!--quoteo(post=2721485:date=Nov 1, 2012 -> 07:00 PM:name=MexSoxFan#1)-->

<!--quotec-->The thing I want to know is, do we have a 3 pt lead with the ball or on defense. Makes a world of difference.

 

with ads like this, Romney will surely win the coveted Hispanic vote

 

 

not sure what's going on in that video. Hugo Chavez bad and Obama bad? is that the narrative?

[BigSqwert]

not sure what's going on in that video. Hugo Chavez bad and Obama bad? is that the narrative?

No. The narrator explains that the earth was created 4000 years ago, gays are evil, raped women should have no right to an abortion, Hispanics are unwelcome in America, and that Romney will declare war on Iran during his inauguration speech. All of this is said with random video clips of controversial figures from the Latin world.

[mr_genius]

No. The narrator explains that the earth was created 4000 years ago, gays are evil, raped women should have no right to an abortion, Hispanics are unwelcome in America, and that Romney will declare war on Iran during his inauguration speech. All of this is said with random video clips of controversial figures from the Latin world.

 

haha Mittens, thinks he will lose and puts out a sarcastic joke political ad. maybe he's not so bad afterall. too bad i already early voted for Obama

Edited November 2, 2012 by mr_genius

[greg775]

With a few days remaining, does Romney truly have a shot at this?

 

I have a gut feeling that as bad as Obama is, Romney might be the worst president ever, even worse than Quayle would have been. And I'm a lifelong Republican saying this.

[southsider2k5]

With a few days remaining, does Romney truly have a shot at this?

 

I have a gut feeling that as bad as Obama is, Romney might be the worst president ever, even worse than Quayle would have been. And I'm a lifelong Republican saying this.

 

Dan Quayle at least had a set of clearly defined principals.

[Reddy]

With a few days remaining, does Romney truly have a shot at this?

 

I have a gut feeling that as bad as Obama is, Romney might be the worst president ever, even worse than Quayle would have been. And I'm a lifelong Republican saying this.

Romney does not. All the polling is trending back towards Obama. RealClearPolitics has Obama up in 9 of 12 swing states. All that matters at this point is voter turnout.

[NorthSideSox72]

With a few days remaining, does Romney truly have a shot at this?

 

I have a gut feeling that as bad as Obama is, Romney might be the worst president ever, even worse than Quayle would have been. And I'm a lifelong Republican saying this.

It is awfully late in the game, and the electoral math means that Romney needs to win almost every one of the 10-or-so swing states. He is behind in virtually all of them right now, in the polls at least.

 

I suppose there is a chance that the hurricane recovery story turns bad in a serious hurry, making Obama look bad... or maybe some other huge event occurs that we aren't anticipating... but barring something like that, Romney has no real shot at it.

 

If you want evidence, look at what the Romney campaign has been doing the past week or two. It is textbook desperation stuff. They are throwing money at states where Obama has double digit leads or close to it... they are putting up ads that are so patently false, that they make the other ads from the rest of the campaigns to date look like well-researched scientific works. These are death throes. The Romney campaign firing money in every direction while on its last gasp.

 

[bmags]

With a few days remaining, does Romney truly have a shot at this?

 

I have a gut feeling that as bad as Obama is, Romney might be the worst president ever, even worse than Quayle would have been. And I'm a lifelong Republican saying this.

 

Yes. If he outperforms Obama by 2% nationally then that outperforms enough that he will have probably overcome most of the tight races. This is entirely possible.

 

 

[clyons]

I voted early today. Usually, it makes me feel proud and patriotic. Today, it made me feel like I wanted to take a shower.

[GoSox05]

If you don't like either of the candidates on the ballot can you leave it blank?

 

 

[southsider2k5]

If you don't like either of the candidates on the ballot can you leave it blank?

 

You can. Or you can write someone else in, which is a favorite of mine.