Jump to content

Hurricane Sandy thread


southsider2k5

Recommended Posts

Here is a 2004 paper that examined the hurricane data from 1970-2003:

 

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full

 

We deliberately limited this study to the satellite era because of the known biases before this period (28), which means that a comprehensive analysis of longer-period oscillations and trends has not been attempted. There is evidence of a minimum of intense cyclones occurring in the 1970s (11), which could indicate that our observed trend toward more intense cyclones is a reflection of a long-period oscillation. However, the sustained increase over a period of 30 years in the proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes indicates that the related oscillation would have to be on a period substantially longer than that observed in previous studies.

 

We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment (29). This trend is not inconsistent with recent climate model simulations that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones (18, 30), although attribution of the 30-year trends to global warming would require a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes in the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, even in the present climate state.

 

They specifically chose 1970 as that's when satellite tracking began, so it eliminated the under-reported potential bias. What they could not eliminate was the possibility that hurricanes fluctuate on a greater-than-30-years cycle, though I don't believe there's any proposed mechanism for how that would happen. Still, given that caveat, they found that the intensity of hurricanes over the past 30 years has increased globally, and that this is consistent with the predictive models that project even more increases in the future.

 

*What they've also found is that the total number of hurricanes outside of the North Atlantic basin has actually decreased. So we have less storms per year, but these storms are stronger. The absolute maximum intensity has also remained static.

Edited by StrangeSox
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 138
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 01:34 PM)
Yeah, again, tell me where i'm denying global warming would have any effect. I'm saying it's not the end of the world prophecy that was predicted.

 

Edit: And feel free to ignore my post on this very page in which I said my point wasn't to deny the impact, but to poke fun at the overreaction.

 

But stronger storms are becoming the norm. Your post was a bit of overreaction itself.

 

I was wrong to say earlier that the frequency of hurricanes has increased. It hasn't, but the frequency of intense hurricanes has.

 

F4.large.jpg

Edited by StrangeSox
Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Oct 31, 2012 -> 11:07 PM)
So not much looting right? Is that because this storm happened to hit a civilized part of the country?

there's been a bit in the more ghetto-y areas. but on the whole not so bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've read at least 2 stories of people dieing when they were trying to leave their house or get to higher ground after it started flooding. One hand, it's horrible to hear stories like this but on the other hand, why didn't these people listen when they were told to evactuate a week prior?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 10:00 AM)
I've read at least 2 stories of people dieing when they were trying to leave their house or get to higher ground after it started flooding. One hand, it's horrible to hear stories like this but on the other hand, why didn't these people listen when they were told to evactuate a week prior?

While to a certain extent I agree, there may be a lot of factors in individual cases we may not know about. What if the person or family doesn't have much money to begin with and nowhere to go? What if they have no family or friends elsewhere to stay with? What if they don't speak good English and didn't realize they were told to evacuate? What if they don't own a car in order to drive away? It may not be as easy as "Why didn't they just leave?"

Edited by BigSqwert
Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 11:27 AM)
While to a certain extent I agree, there may be a lot of factors in individual cases we may not know about. What if the person or family doesn't have much money to begin with and nowhere to go? What if they have no family or friends elsewhere to stay with? What if they don't speak good English and didn't realize they were told to evacuate? What if they don't own a car in order to drive away? It may not be as easy as "Why didn't they just leave?"

 

it was that easy - people just didn't listen. in NYC there was public transit. In NJ, everyone has a car. If they didn't, they had friends with cars. It was typical NY/NJ machismo and the fact that Irene wasn't as bad as people hyped it to be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 12:27 PM)
While to a certain extent I agree, there may be a lot of factors in individual cases we may not know about. What if the person or family doesn't have much money to begin with and nowhere to go? What if they have no family or friends elsewhere to stay with? What if they don't speak good English and didn't realize they were told to evacuate? What if they don't own a car in order to drive away? It may not be as easy as "Why didn't they just leave?"

 

I realize there are extenuating circumstances for each case, but one of the stories the woman was leaving the house in her car when the car got stuck in flood waters and her kids got swept away.

 

So she obviously had a way to get out and had someplace in mind to go. She just made the decision to leave much too late.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 09:42 AM)
Yet the New York marathon must go on! (I believe it starts on Staten Island)

beyond f***ed up. they're evicting evacuees from hotels so that runners will have rooms. ridiculous.

 

this is turning into Katrina quick in SI, Brooklyn and Lower Manhattan. Sadly that's not an overstatement.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Reddy @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 01:23 PM)
it was that easy - people just didn't listen. in NYC there was public transit. In NJ, everyone has a car. If they didn't, they had friends with cars. It was typical NY/NJ machismo and the fact that Irene wasn't as bad as people hyped it to be.

Not sure how you could state that with certainty as if you polled each individual who decided to stay. *shrugs*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

'Sons of Anarchy' star: Storm aftermath 'a lot worse than how it's being portrayed by media'

EW spoke to Sons of Anarchy – and Staten Island native — Theo Rossi (Juice Ortiz), who was home visiting family and friends when Sandy hit. He's remained there ever since and gave us this first-hand account of the devastation. "It's so bad here, a lot worse than how its being portrayed by the media. They are finding bodies left and right, elderly people who don't even watch the news or who knew the storm was coming. I was just with one of my best friends from high school and college, and his house is completely gone. One story I heard was about this one guy who evacuated his house during Hurricane Irene but then it got looted. So when they told him to evacuate for Sandy, he said, 'I'm not leaving.' Now they can't find him, his 13-year-old daughter is dead, and his wife is in critical condition at the hospital. These are the stories. My stepfather and my mother, I love them to death. But when they heard the storm was coming, they said, 'It's not going to be that bad. Irene didn't do anything.' They had two flashlights and a couple of scented candles. Little did they know. It's just not worth it. If you're told to evacuate, you need to get out.

 

The one weird thing is how there is no power. The other weird thing is how there's no gas. To get gas requires a three-and-a-half hour wait. It's like this odd, post-apocalyptic kind of thing. Most trees are down. Power lines are down. It's like a movie, or like The Walking Dead. You can't believe it. Especially when you grow up here. I moved to Los Angeles in 1999, but this has always been my home. There's the place I kissed a girl, that's the place I played handball. I know this island in and out. To see it completely destroyed is bizarre.

 

I've been trying to hit every shelter on Staten Island to do what I can, just to make people smile. A lot of people know me and know I'm from here. My flight has been changed six times now. Finally, I got a flight for Sunday. Then, the city decides they are going ahead with the New York City Marathon. The bridges will be closed, so I can't get to the airport. How are they doing a marathon when most people don't have power? On top of it, the hotels in Manhattan have been nice enough to put up people who have no homes. They are charging them $200 as opposed to $700 a night. But now they are throwing these people out because they've got people from all over the world coming to run the marathon. They are throwing out the survivors! So I call Jet Blue and say I can't fly Sunday because I can't get from Staten Island to JFK Airport. And they said 'Okay Theo.' They know me know because I've been calling them every 15 minutes. They say, 'Theo, we can get you on a flight Friday.' I say book it! I call up the car service, and they say, 'We can't pick you up, we have no gas.' All my friends on Staten Island say, 'How are we going to get you there? We have no gas.' And the people who do have gas, don't want to waste it going to JFK. So I've got to call and change my flight again. Now I'm leaving Monday. Everybody says if we don't have gas in our cars by Monday, if the roads aren't clear by Monday, that's it … we're throwing in the towel.

 

I'm really glad I'm here to help and do anything, but I've never seen anything like this. I'm just glad I'm here with my family. A shout out and thank you to all the amazing city workers who have been working around the clock. Police, fire, sanitation. You all are the true fabric of this city

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One story I heard was about this one guy who evacuated his house during Hurricane Irene but then it got looted. So when they told him to evacuate for Sandy, he said, 'I'm not leaving.' Now they can't find him, his 13-year-old daughter is dead, and his wife is in critical condition at the hospital.

 

Given the choice between staying and dying or leaving and maybe having to replace a few material possessions, they pick the former.

 

I don't get it.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It sounds easy to evacuate. Just leave and go somewhere. Now put that in realistic terms. You have less than $100 to your name and no car. Hell even with a car, how much gas will you buy? Where will you stay? And the problem just scales from there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

QUOTE (Iwritecode @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 04:31 PM)
Given the choice between staying and dying or leaving and maybe having to replace a few material possessions, they pick the former.

 

I don't get it.

He had what was coming to him then, hard to feel bad.

 

QUOTE (Tex @ Nov 3, 2012 -> 08:26 AM)
It sounds easy to evacuate. Just leave and go somewhere. Now put that in realistic terms. You have less than $100 to your name and no car. Hell even with a car, how much gas will you buy? Where will you stay? And the problem just scales from there.

Leave or possibly die? I'll figure out a way to leave.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...