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AJ files for FA


2nd_city_saint787

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I'd certainly take him back on the deal we gave him last time. I'm willing to let things play out, for sure.

 

If we're choosing between a reasonable Peavy deal or AJ, I'm probably taking Peavy at double the price (say, $6M for AJ vs $12M for Peavs....both of those numbers may prove too low though)

 

I really love AJ though, I hope he comes back. If not, I'm going to get myself real excited about T-Flow. I think Tyler could be a very productive everyday player, and I like the defender he's become. I can also see a scenario in which he can't be an everyday batter. Thus is the issue with unproven (can't quite call him young) players.

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QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 10:21 PM)
AJ said no hometown discount, so my guess is see ya.

 

Paulie will reign as the last piece from 2005, which is at it should be.

 

time to get younger

 

I don't have any faith in Flowers because of his enormous K rate. But it's time to try Plan B.

 

Can we get a link where he 'said' that.

 

He's coming off a career year, it's smart for him to test out free agency.

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The main reason I want AJ back is because he's a LH bat. If they give Tyler the starting job then the Sox are left with De Aza and Dunn as the only LH bats in the lineup and they're top of the order bats.

 

Unless Hahn does some movin and shakin, they need his LH bat....Chase Headley sure would look nice taking his spot from the left side (well both sides actually)

 

 

 

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I'm fine letting him go if he doesn't wanna sign cheap.

 

I want to get younger and cheaper. Cant be overly loyal to aging players just because theyre fan favorites.

 

Flowers starting maybe Olivo as a back-up... Flowers can defend better than AJ and honestly I'm fine having a defense/calling a good game first kind of catcher.

 

 

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If you go into the season with Tyler as your starter, that's fine. But you MUST have a left-handed hitting backup who can at least bat his weight against right-handed pitching...e.g. someone with experience. I wouldn't platoon Tyler from the start, but you have to hedge your bets in case he has a 2012 showing against righties.

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As for Flowers being exposed, I think the opposite may actually happen. He may benefit from playing more. If he can draw a lot of walks (like he did in most of his minor league career), hit 20+ home runs, and continue to show he's a defensive upgrade over AJ... he might actually be a wash with AJ, but for a heck of a lot cheaper. The only thing he's missing, are the intangibles - and it is hard to say what impact those have.

 

QUOTE (knightni @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 04:13 AM)
So, a weaker armed Karkovice?

Eh? Karko was never that good a hitter, he was usually .210's or .220's as a full time player, with about half that much power (except one season). Karko was a defensive catcher who tried to, but never really did, learn to become a hitter. Flowers is the opposite.

 

 

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He's as good as gone, and it will be a sad day. Keeping him is worth the money. No one around seems to be one play ahead in the game like AJ. I like a guy who gets mad when he don't get a hit, gives you good at bats when it is needed, and can be counted on to play every day. Sorry, but Flowers does not have those intangibles, and we take another step back at a vital position without AJ.

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It wouldn't surprise anyone. I think in the end, he will be 20-25 HR hitting catcher with a .230-.240 average next year, 150+ Ks and .325 OBP.

 

20-25 HRs probably puts his SLG at about .425 so that's an OPS of about .750 which isn't terrible for a catcher.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Flowers did that, I wouldn't be surprised if he was 100 points worse than that, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was 100 points better than that. He clearly has the potential, but potential isn't a sure thing.

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QUOTE (klaus kinski @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 09:15 AM)
He's as good as gone, and it will be a sad day. Keeping him is worth the money. No one around seems to be one play ahead in the game like AJ. I like a guy who gets mad when he don't get a hit, gives you good at bats when it is needed, and can be counted on to play every day. Sorry, but Flowers does not have those intangibles, and we take another step back at a vital position without AJ.

 

I don't think you know either of those two.

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QUOTE (klaus kinski @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 03:15 PM)
He's as good as gone, and it will be a sad day. Keeping him is worth the money. No one around seems to be one play ahead in the game like AJ. I like a guy who gets mad when he don't get a hit, gives you good at bats when it is needed, and can be counted on to play every day. Sorry, but Flowers does not have those intangibles, and we take another step back at a vital position without AJ.

 

 

I agree with you on this. AJP brings a lot to the table. I hope we make an honest effort to resign him. I am guessing he will be in demand though. Everyone calling for these FA's of ours to sign for the cheap or give the Sox a hometown discount... why would they?

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QUOTE (Baron @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 12:43 PM)
I will be really upset if we dont make an attempt to resign him. Tyler Flowers starting everyday scares me. By making that switch you just made a hole in your lineup. Thats not the way to go forward.

Serious question... how big a hole is that in your lineup, really?

 

In AJ's Sox years, his OPS was in a range from .688 to .769, until his breakout 2012 season. Given his age and just plain regression to the mean, it seems likely (not set in stone) that he will be back in that range again. And he doesn't bring any speed to the offense, nor any ability for small ball to speak of. He is a smart baserunner, but that only adds so much value.

 

If Flowers hits, say, .240... and draws walks at his AAA pace (about .100 Iso)... and hits 20 home runs to help his SLG, which seems like a reasonable number for him... he's going to have an OPS in the high .700's. Even if he falls a bit below that, that's low to mid .700's, and pretty much in line with what AJ gives you in almost any season.

 

But Flower is younger, has shown he is a better defender and better baserunning controller. And oh by the way would cost about half a million for the next few years, as opposed to $6-$8M a year for AJ.

 

I love AJ, he's been great here, but I honestly have changed my mind on this - I think the team is better served with Flowers in there. Get a LH hitting backup C on the FA market who doesn't completely suck, if you can. If not, Phegley. I think you end up with an overall comparable offensive player with better defense, for a lot less money.

 

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