Baron Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 (edited) QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 01:58 PM) Serious question... how big a hole is that in your lineup, really? In AJ's Sox years, his OPS was in a range from .688 to .769, until his breakout 2012 season. Given his age and just plain regression to the mean, it seems likely (not set in stone) that he will be back in that range again. And he doesn't bring any speed to the offense, nor any ability for small ball to speak of. He is a smart baserunner, but that only adds so much value. If Flowers hits, say, .240... and draws walks at his AAA pace (about .100 Iso)... and hits 20 home runs to help his SLG, which seems like a reasonable number for him... he's going to have an OPS in the high .700's. Even if he falls a bit below that, that's low to mid .700's, and pretty much in line with what AJ gives you in almost any season. But Flower is younger, has shown he is a better defender and better baserunning controller. And oh by the way would cost about half a million for the next few years, as opposed to $6-$8M a year for AJ. I love AJ, he's been great here, but I honestly have changed my mind on this - I think the team is better served with Flowers in there. Get a LH hitting backup C on the FA market who doesn't completely suck, if you can. If not, Phegley. I think you end up with an overall comparable offensive player with better defense, for a lot less money. Thats the problem right there. For me thats a big what if. From what Ive seen from him he has a long way to go offensively. If you have Flowers starting I want him platooned because I think its more likely he gets exposed than him breaking out. The rest is on point though. The problem is he isnt someone we can say for sure we can put up those numbers. If he was more consistent this wouldnt even be a question. Edited October 30, 2012 by Baron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 I love AJ, he's been great here, but I honestly have changed my mind on this - I think the team is better served with Flowers in there. Get a LH hitting backup C on the FA market who doesn't completely suck, if you can. If not, Phegley. I think you end up with an overall comparable offensive player with better defense, for a lot less money. I think the #1 priority is to either retain Youkilis or find a good replacement and the #2 priority is to retain Peavy. If there is enough dough left in the cash register to pay AJ after those two things are done, that's great. If not, I'm OK with taking a chance on Flowers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 QUOTE (Baron @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 02:01 PM) Thats the problem right there. For me thats a big what if. From what Ive seen from him he has a long way to go offensively. If you have Flowers starting I want him platooned because I think its more likely he gets exposed than him breaking out. The rest is on point though. The problem is he isnt someone we can say for sure we can put up those numbers. If he was more consistent this wouldnt even be a question. It is definitely a question mark, as all young players like him are. No such thing as a sure-fire prospect. But... he hasn't even had a chance to BE consistent in the majors yet, because he hasn't played regularly. His minor league track record shows a guy who hit .261/.390/.500 in AAA in 2011, his last year in the minors, for an .890 OPS. And even this season, with very limited playing time, he put up a .708 OPS that is only a smidge below what AJ typically gives you. I just think, assuming the team has some money restrictions, the $7M or so difference isn't worth the zero to 100 OPS points (probably on the lower end of that range, and with poorer defense) that AJ gives you, and could be better-used at 3B or on starting pitching. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baron Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 02:09 PM) It is definitely a question mark, as all young players like him are. No such thing as a sure-fire prospect. But... he hasn't even had a chance to BE consistent in the majors yet, because he hasn't played regularly. His minor league track record shows a guy who hit .261/.390/.500 in AAA in 2011, his last year in the minors, for an .890 OPS. And even this season, with very limited playing time, he put up a .708 OPS that is only a smidge below what AJ typically gives you. I just think, assuming the team has some money restrictions, the $7M or so difference isn't worth the zero to 100 OPS points (probably on the lower end of that range, and with poorer defense) that AJ gives you, and could be better-used at 3B or on starting pitching. If the team has money restrictions then I have no problem with this proposal. My priorities would completely change then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cali Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 11:58 AM) If Flowers hits, say, .240... and draws walks at his AAA pace (about .100 Iso)... and hits 20 home runs to help his SLG, which seems like a reasonable number for him... he's going to have an OPS in the high .700's. Even if he falls a bit below that, that's low to mid .700's, and pretty much in line with what AJ gives you in almost any season. But Flower is younger, has shown he is a better defender and better baserunning controller. And oh by the way would cost about half a million for the next few years, as opposed to $6-$8M a year for AJ. I'd take that in a second. And I think he could do it... I love AJ but the time has come to move on, he'll be forever remembered by Sox fans and the organization for 2005 and onward, but it's time to get the fresh young blood in here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TaylorStSox Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 02:09 PM) It is definitely a question mark, as all young players like him are. No such thing as a sure-fire prospect. But... he hasn't even had a chance to BE consistent in the majors yet, because he hasn't played regularly. His minor league track record shows a guy who hit .261/.390/.500 in AAA in 2011, his last year in the minors, for an .890 OPS. And even this season, with very limited playing time, he put up a .708 OPS that is only a smidge below what AJ typically gives you. I just think, assuming the team has some money restrictions, the $7M or so difference isn't worth the zero to 100 OPS points (probably on the lower end of that range, and with poorer defense) that AJ gives you, and could be better-used at 3B or on starting pitching. I completely agree. I'm also of the opinion that Flowers plays much better defense, calls a better game and may improve team chemistry. For me it's a no brainer. AJ is a more versatile hitter and obviously left handed, but that doesn't outweigh the advantages Flowers has the potential to provide. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted October 30, 2012 Share Posted October 30, 2012 QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 11:29 PM) The main reason I want AJ back is because he's a LH bat. If they give Tyler the starting job then the Sox are left with De Aza and Dunn as the only LH bats in the lineup and they're top of the order bats. Unless Hahn does some movin and shakin, they need his LH bat....Chase Headley sure would look nice taking his spot from the left side (well both sides actually) I couldn't agree with you more. This team has been overly weighted with RH hitting for a long time. I've said many times that they need to balance the line up with a few LH bats. A. J. helped enormously in that regard last season, and if they don't replace his left handed offense, they better bring him back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justBLAZE Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 (edited) Hahn also said there's a chance, although probably not as great, that A.J. Pierzynski will return. "There's absolutely a chance," Hahn said. "Given the history and level of communication, there's certainly a chance until he's elsewhere. We had A.J. for eight years, which I think is a lot longer than people expected. "He's been fantastic for us, just like Mark Buehrle was. ... Unfortunately we had to watch Mark walk out of the door, because it was the best thing for Mark and the best thing for the organization given his market at the time. That could well happen again. But we signed A.J. for eight years. We had three multi-year deals in the mix, and we've got a good relationship with him and his agent, so at least each side is going to make a decision with their eyes wide open. If this is the end, it was a great run. If not, hopefully we can continue it." Rick Hahn on AJ Pierzynski via ESPN.com/Chicago Edited November 1, 2012 by justBLAZE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
witesoxfan Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 They are miniscule sample sizes, but it's worth noting nonetheless Flowers' first half - .164/.250/.295/.545, 68 PAs Flowers' second half - .253/.333/.507/.840, 85 PAs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baines3 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I hope we can resign AJ some how. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve9347 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 QUOTE (Baines3 @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 11:04 AM) I hope we can resign AJ some how. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cabiness42 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I understand that AJ would probably cost less than Youkilis to re-sign, and also that there is value in AJ batting lefty, but the internal option for replacing AJ is far better than the internal option for replacing Youk, so unless there is a very creative 3B solution in the works, I'd spend the money on Youk before I'd spend it on AJ, and this is coming from somebody who like AJ a lot and doesn't particularly care for Youk. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Princess Dye Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 11:15 AM) I understand that AJ would probably cost less than Youkilis to re-sign, Really? Anyone else thinking this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthSideSox72 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 01:15 PM) Really? Anyone else thinking this? I certainly am. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 01:15 PM) Really? Anyone else thinking this? I'm with you. I really could see AJ commanding something close to $10 million annually if he squeezes the market. Plus any AJ deal won't be super-long term, which makes it easier to swallow for a team. You are looking at two years, three tops. I think Youk ends up in the 4-5 million dollar range. If I had to predict, AJ will end up at 2/20. Youk will end up at 1/4.5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Whatever happens this was one of K-Dubs better moves adding AJ. The move helped both. He managed to rehab his reputation (although not totally). He'll have more interest than before he came here. I don't like to even consider hometown discount unless there are hometown bonuses, and that hasn't happened. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lemon_44 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I could see AJ signing with the Yankees. His LH bat would be nice fit for their short right field. He'd probably have to platoon with Martin(I assume he'll be back) but he's getting up there and may be okay with a platoon situation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 (edited) Do the Sox really expect to have an effective offense with Adam Dunn and de Aza as their only two left handed hitters? The Tigers will have Fielder, Martinez, Dirks, Avila, Boesch and are said to be considering Melky Cabrera as a free agent to replace Young. The Royals will have Moustakas, Hosmer and Gordon. The Twins have Mauer, Morneau, Doumit and Span The Indians have Choo, Hafner, Santana, Kotchman, Cabrera, Brantley and Kipnis. You would be hard pressed to find a competitive offense in the Majors which consisted of just two left handed hitters, especially the caliber of Dunn and de Aza. "Baseball is a left handed game". It favors left handed hitters. At the very least, it dictates reasonable balance of righties and lefties in the line up. The Sox will almost certainly add one left handed bat to their roster, if they don't bring A. J. back. The question is who. Maybe they will do something creative like move Beckham or Viciedo back to 3RD, and find a left handed hitting left fielder or second baseman. Edited November 3, 2012 by Lillian Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 3, 2012 -> 06:16 AM) Do the Sox really expect to have an effective offense with Adam Dunn and de Aza as their only two left handed hitters? The Tigers will have Fielder, Martinez, Dirks, Avila, Boesch and are said to be considering Melky Cabrera as a free agent to replace Young. The Royals will have Moustakas, Hosmer and Gordon. The Twins have Mauer, Morneau, Doumit and Span The Indians have Choo, Hafner, Santana, Kotchman, Cabrera, Brantley and Kipnis. You would be hard pressed to find a competitive offense in the Majors which consisted of just two left handed hitters, especially the caliber of Dunn and de Aza. Baseball is a left handed game. The Sox will almost certainly add one left handed bat to their roster, if they don't bring A. J. back. The question is who. If baseball was a left handed game then it would be a right handed game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lillian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Nov 3, 2012 -> 06:36 AM) If baseball was a left handed game then it would be a right handed game. Thanks. I fixed it, by putting it in quotes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southsider2k5 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Interesting look at 2012 for AJ http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php...ski-whats-next/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Bump for laughs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Texsox Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Laughs for precisely your point. You can't take it too seriously. It also highlights the difficulty in being a GM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knightni Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Flowers - 11 R 24 H 4 HR 12 RBI 10 BB .610 OPS 7 CS - 31 ATT - $510,000 A.J. - 10 R 31 H 4 HR 14 RBI 5 BB .710 OPS 2 CS - 15 ATT - $7,500,000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elrockinMT Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 QUOTE (knightni @ May 28, 2013 -> 09:56 PM) Flowers - 11 R 24 H 4 HR 12 RBI 10 BB .610 OPS 7 CS - 31 ATT - $510,000 A.J. - 10 R 31 H 4 HR 14 RBI 5 BB .710 OPS 2 CS - 15 ATT - $7,500,000 but it is the intangibles Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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