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AJ files for FA


2nd_city_saint787

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 01:58 PM)
Serious question... how big a hole is that in your lineup, really?

 

In AJ's Sox years, his OPS was in a range from .688 to .769, until his breakout 2012 season. Given his age and just plain regression to the mean, it seems likely (not set in stone) that he will be back in that range again. And he doesn't bring any speed to the offense, nor any ability for small ball to speak of. He is a smart baserunner, but that only adds so much value.

 

If Flowers hits, say, .240... and draws walks at his AAA pace (about .100 Iso)... and hits 20 home runs to help his SLG, which seems like a reasonable number for him... he's going to have an OPS in the high .700's. Even if he falls a bit below that, that's low to mid .700's, and pretty much in line with what AJ gives you in almost any season.

 

But Flower is younger, has shown he is a better defender and better baserunning controller. And oh by the way would cost about half a million for the next few years, as opposed to $6-$8M a year for AJ.

 

I love AJ, he's been great here, but I honestly have changed my mind on this - I think the team is better served with Flowers in there. Get a LH hitting backup C on the FA market who doesn't completely suck, if you can. If not, Phegley. I think you end up with an overall comparable offensive player with better defense, for a lot less money.

 

Thats the problem right there. For me thats a big what if. From what Ive seen from him he has a long way to go offensively. If you have Flowers starting I want him platooned because I think its more likely he gets exposed than him breaking out.

 

The rest is on point though. The problem is he isnt someone we can say for sure we can put up those numbers. If he was more consistent this wouldnt even be a question.

Edited by Baron
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I love AJ, he's been great here, but I honestly have changed my mind on this - I think the team is better served with Flowers in there. Get a LH hitting backup C on the FA market who doesn't completely suck, if you can. If not, Phegley. I think you end up with an overall comparable offensive player with better defense, for a lot less money.

 

I think the #1 priority is to either retain Youkilis or find a good replacement and the #2 priority is to retain Peavy. If there is enough dough left in the cash register to pay AJ after those two things are done, that's great. If not, I'm OK with taking a chance on Flowers.

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QUOTE (Baron @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 02:01 PM)
Thats the problem right there. For me thats a big what if. From what Ive seen from him he has a long way to go offensively. If you have Flowers starting I want him platooned because I think its more likely he gets exposed than him breaking out.

 

The rest is on point though. The problem is he isnt someone we can say for sure we can put up those numbers. If he was more consistent this wouldnt even be a question.

It is definitely a question mark, as all young players like him are. No such thing as a sure-fire prospect. But... he hasn't even had a chance to BE consistent in the majors yet, because he hasn't played regularly. His minor league track record shows a guy who hit .261/.390/.500 in AAA in 2011, his last year in the minors, for an .890 OPS. And even this season, with very limited playing time, he put up a .708 OPS that is only a smidge below what AJ typically gives you.

 

I just think, assuming the team has some money restrictions, the $7M or so difference isn't worth the zero to 100 OPS points (probably on the lower end of that range, and with poorer defense) that AJ gives you, and could be better-used at 3B or on starting pitching.

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 02:09 PM)
It is definitely a question mark, as all young players like him are. No such thing as a sure-fire prospect. But... he hasn't even had a chance to BE consistent in the majors yet, because he hasn't played regularly. His minor league track record shows a guy who hit .261/.390/.500 in AAA in 2011, his last year in the minors, for an .890 OPS. And even this season, with very limited playing time, he put up a .708 OPS that is only a smidge below what AJ typically gives you.

 

I just think, assuming the team has some money restrictions, the $7M or so difference isn't worth the zero to 100 OPS points (probably on the lower end of that range, and with poorer defense) that AJ gives you, and could be better-used at 3B or on starting pitching.

 

If the team has money restrictions then I have no problem with this proposal. My priorities would completely change then.

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 11:58 AM)
If Flowers hits, say, .240... and draws walks at his AAA pace (about .100 Iso)... and hits 20 home runs to help his SLG, which seems like a reasonable number for him... he's going to have an OPS in the high .700's. Even if he falls a bit below that, that's low to mid .700's, and pretty much in line with what AJ gives you in almost any season.

 

But Flower is younger, has shown he is a better defender and better baserunning controller. And oh by the way would cost about half a million for the next few years, as opposed to $6-$8M a year for AJ.

 

I'd take that in a second. And I think he could do it...

 

I love AJ but the time has come to move on, he'll be forever remembered by Sox fans and the organization for 2005 and onward, but it's time to get the fresh young blood in here...

 

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QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 02:09 PM)
It is definitely a question mark, as all young players like him are. No such thing as a sure-fire prospect. But... he hasn't even had a chance to BE consistent in the majors yet, because he hasn't played regularly. His minor league track record shows a guy who hit .261/.390/.500 in AAA in 2011, his last year in the minors, for an .890 OPS. And even this season, with very limited playing time, he put up a .708 OPS that is only a smidge below what AJ typically gives you.

 

I just think, assuming the team has some money restrictions, the $7M or so difference isn't worth the zero to 100 OPS points (probably on the lower end of that range, and with poorer defense) that AJ gives you, and could be better-used at 3B or on starting pitching.

I completely agree. I'm also of the opinion that Flowers plays much better defense, calls a better game and may improve team chemistry. For me it's a no brainer. AJ is a more versatile hitter and obviously left handed, but that doesn't outweigh the advantages Flowers has the potential to provide.

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QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 11:29 PM)
The main reason I want AJ back is because he's a LH bat. If they give Tyler the starting job then the Sox are left with De Aza and Dunn as the only LH bats in the lineup and they're top of the order bats.

 

Unless Hahn does some movin and shakin, they need his LH bat....Chase Headley sure would look nice taking his spot from the left side (well both sides actually)

 

I couldn't agree with you more. This team has been overly weighted with RH hitting for a long time. I've said many times that they need to balance the line up with a few LH bats. A. J. helped enormously in that regard last season, and if they don't replace his left handed offense, they better bring him back.

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Hahn also said there's a chance, although probably not as great, that A.J. Pierzynski will return.

 

"There's absolutely a chance," Hahn said. "Given the history and level of communication, there's certainly a chance until he's elsewhere. We had A.J. for eight years, which I think is a lot longer than people expected.

 

"He's been fantastic for us, just like Mark Buehrle was. ... Unfortunately we had to watch Mark walk out of the door, because it was the best thing for Mark and the best thing for the organization given his market at the time. That could well happen again. But we signed A.J. for eight years. We had three multi-year deals in the mix, and we've got a good relationship with him and his agent, so at least each side is going to make a decision with their eyes wide open. If this is the end, it was a great run. If not, hopefully we can continue it."

 

Rick Hahn on AJ Pierzynski via ESPN.com/Chicago

 

 

Edited by justBLAZE
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I understand that AJ would probably cost less than Youkilis to re-sign, and also that there is value in AJ batting lefty, but the internal option for replacing AJ is far better than the internal option for replacing Youk, so unless there is a very creative 3B solution in the works, I'd spend the money on Youk before I'd spend it on AJ, and this is coming from somebody who like AJ a lot and doesn't particularly care for Youk.

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QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Nov 2, 2012 -> 01:15 PM)
Really? Anyone else thinking this?

 

I'm with you. I really could see AJ commanding something close to $10 million annually if he squeezes the market. Plus any AJ deal won't be super-long term, which makes it easier to swallow for a team. You are looking at two years, three tops. I think Youk ends up in the 4-5 million dollar range.

 

If I had to predict, AJ will end up at 2/20. Youk will end up at 1/4.5.

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Whatever happens this was one of K-Dubs better moves adding AJ. The move helped both. He managed to rehab his reputation (although not totally). He'll have more interest than before he came here. I don't like to even consider hometown discount unless there are hometown bonuses, and that hasn't happened.

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Do the Sox really expect to have an effective offense with Adam Dunn and de Aza as their only two left handed hitters?

 

The Tigers will have Fielder, Martinez, Dirks, Avila, Boesch and are said to be considering Melky Cabrera as a free agent to replace Young.

The Royals will have Moustakas, Hosmer and Gordon.

The Twins have Mauer, Morneau, Doumit and Span

The Indians have Choo, Hafner, Santana, Kotchman, Cabrera, Brantley and Kipnis.

 

You would be hard pressed to find a competitive offense in the Majors which consisted of just two left handed hitters, especially the caliber of Dunn and de Aza. "Baseball is a left handed game". It favors left handed hitters. At the very least, it dictates reasonable balance of righties and lefties in the line up.

The Sox will almost certainly add one left handed bat to their roster, if they don't bring A. J. back. The question is who.

Maybe they will do something creative like move Beckham or Viciedo back to 3RD, and find a left handed hitting left fielder or second baseman.

Edited by Lillian
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QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 3, 2012 -> 06:16 AM)
Do the Sox really expect to have an effective offense with Adam Dunn and de Aza as their only two left handed hitters?

 

The Tigers will have Fielder, Martinez, Dirks, Avila, Boesch and are said to be considering Melky Cabrera as a free agent to replace Young.

The Royals will have Moustakas, Hosmer and Gordon.

The Twins have Mauer, Morneau, Doumit and Span

The Indians have Choo, Hafner, Santana, Kotchman, Cabrera, Brantley and Kipnis.

 

You would be hard pressed to find a competitive offense in the Majors which consisted of just two left handed hitters, especially the caliber of Dunn and de Aza. Baseball is a left handed game. The Sox will almost certainly add one left handed bat to their roster, if they don't bring A. J. back. The question is who.

 

If baseball was a left handed game then it would be a right handed game.

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