White Sox Re-Sign Jake Peavy

[greg775]

I haven't checked, but I recall Harrelson several times saying Dunn was hitting "important" home runs during the first half.

 

He blasted so many when the game was close I'd rate his season a success despite the batting average. I'd actually give him a B but wouldn't be totally against an A-.

Like I said though, I think he, like the rest of the hitters, sucked the last 2-3 weeks. Forgive me if I'm mistaken on that. I'd be more comfortable with a grade of B for Dunn, but wouldn't balk at A-.

I still don't like him for some reason, though. Call me crazy.

[witesoxfan]

Good f***ing lord, quit going based on feel. Hundreds of sites keep statistics on a yearly basis, and one in particular lists every single player that has ever played a game of baseball and lists their splits (as far as they are aware) at Baseball Reference. (HINT: They also do this with other sports, though less comprehensive)

 

Here's Dunn's splits from 2012:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/...ar=2012&t=b

 

Accounting for lefty/righty bias, he was about the same between the two

Actually hit better on the road - perhaps puts too much pressure on himself in front of the home crowd

Great in the first half, terrible in the second half

Hit better in wins (doesn't everybody???)

Hit better and walked more playing first base (whereas the DH statistics are similar to last year)

Knows how to leadoff (.344 OBP, 9 "lead-off" home runs)

Kept innings going with RISP - .212 AVG, .349 OBP

Walked, swung for the fences, or struck out with no one one

THE REST OF HIS AT BATS WITH RUNNERS ON OR NOT (your judgment call, either way, there's still no worthy sample size)

Most of his plate appearances came with two outs, where he struggled

 

 

But here follows the 2 most important statistic groups of Adam Dunn's season (coming from Dunn's biggest fan)

 

#1

WHEN THE WHITE SOX WERE WINNING: .202/.371/.486/.857

WHEN THE WHITE SOX WERE LOSING: .202/.307/.514/.820

 

This tells me two things: teams don't want to pitch to Dunn when the Sox are winning, because in one pitch, he has the chance to increase the deficit. In the same regard, teams aren't afraid to pitch to him when they are winning because, even though he can change that score in a second, you are far, far, far likelier to get him out. Teams aren't afraid to pitch to Dunn, which speaks to not only his ability but the hitters in front of and behind him as well.

 

#2

 

ADAM DUNN IN HIGH LEVERAGE SITUATIONS: .186/.254/.382/.637

 

He's great everywhere else. He had some big hits, but he wasn't clutch last year. I'm sure you can dive back into his data and find a point when he was good in those situations, but this was the closest he's ever been to the playoffs in his life, and he (er HERM) struck out, like the rest of the Sox.

 

You can deduce whatever else you'd like out of them. s***, look around all the splits. You'll be surprised. Not counting Hector Gimenez, bet you'd never guess which player had the best OPS with RISP. Or who had the highest average. Or the second highest average. Or the fifth highest average. (ANSWERS: Orlando Hudson; Alex Rios; Alexei Ramirez; Dayan Viciedo).

 

I'll put the link in my signature if it helps people from making these sorts of projections based off of goddamn "feelings." YOU DON'T FEEL STATISTICS, YOU FEEL BOOBS

[Dick Allen]

Someone's walks can be overrated? Now I've heard everything.

 

Walks are overrated in a game that is based around getting on base and not making the next out. Brilliant.

A walk to Adam Dunn and a walk to Mike Trout are 2 very different things. You can blame the rest of the line up for Dunn not scoring when he walks, but it happens every year of his career. The game is based on scoring runs., not necessarily getting on base, that's why players get intentionally walked every game. For all his walks and high career OBP, The fact remains, if Adam Dunn doesn't hit a home run, he scores about as often as Gordon Beckham. Walking Mike Trout or Rickey Henderson the same amount with the same cast of characters hitting behind them would create more runs.

 

Homers are his game. He scored only 46 when he didn't drive himself home and drove in only 28 when he did't homer. The walks in reality in his case are more stat padders than actually creating runs.

Edited November 2, 2012 by Dick Allen

[cabiness42]

My problem with Adam Dunn is that he is strong enough to hit it out of the park in any direction. If the guy would just hit what the pitchers give him he'd still put up 40 bombs, but he could up his productive outs and his average. A 390 foot fly ball to straight away LF is worth just much as a 440 foot fly to straight away RF.

 

That's just not true. I don't know why people think that. Yes, he's strong enough to hit it out the opposite way, but he wouldn't hit it out nearly as often. Not all of Dunn's HR to RF are 440 feet. Some of them are only 360 feet and those would be 320 or whatever the opposite way which makes them outs.

 

[cabiness42]

But here follows the 2 most important statistic groups of Adam Dunn's season (coming from Dunn's biggest fan)

 

#1

WHEN THE WHITE SOX WERE WINNING: .202/.371/.486/.857

WHEN THE WHITE SOX WERE LOSING: .202/.307/.514/.820

 

This tells me two things: teams don't want to pitch to Dunn when the Sox are winning, because in one pitch, he has the chance to increase the deficit. In the same regard, teams aren't afraid to pitch to him when they are winning because, even though he can change that score in a second, you are far, far, far likelier to get him out. Teams aren't afraid to pitch to Dunn, which speaks to not only his ability but the hitters in front of and behind him as well.

 

#2

 

ADAM DUNN IN HIGH LEVERAGE SITUATIONS: .186/.254/.382/.637

 

He's great everywhere else. He had some big hits, but he wasn't clutch last year. I'm sure you can dive back into his data and find a point when he was good in those situations, but this was the closest he's ever been to the playoffs in his life, and he (er HERM) struck out, like the rest of the Sox.

 

You can deduce whatever else you'd like out of them. s***, look around all the splits. You'll be surprised. Not counting Hector Gimenez, bet you'd never guess which player had the best OPS with RISP. Or who had the highest average. Or the second highest average. Or the fifth highest average. (ANSWERS: Orlando Hudson; Alex Rios; Alexei Ramirez; Dayan Viciedo).

 

I'll put the link in my signature if it helps people from making these sorts of projections based off of goddamn "feelings." YOU DON'T FEEL STATISTICS, YOU FEEL BOOBS

 

To point #1: That pitchers aren't afraid to pitch to Adam with a lead is very much about the hitters in front of and behind him. Teams also don't use their LOOGY on him nearly as much when behind than when ahead.

 

To point #2: A lefty slugger is always going to bet the other team's best LOOGY in high leverage situations and the numbers are going to reflect that. Contract dollars aside, everybody would welcome Prince Fielder or Alex Gordon on this team but they were terrible in high leverage situations against the Sox because of Donnie Veal. A lefty slugger's job isn't to get clutch hits, it's to absolutely mash the steady diet of righty starters that come before the situation gets clutch.

[cabiness42]

A walk to Adam Dunn and a walk to Mike Trout are 2 very different things. You can blame the rest of the line up for Dunn not scoring when he walks, but it happens every year of his career. The game is based on scoring runs., not necessarily getting on base, that's why players get intentionally walked every game. For all his walks and high career OBP, The fact remains, if Adam Dunn doesn't hit a home run, he scores about as often as Gordon Beckham. Walking Mike Trout or Rickey Henderson the same amount with the same cast of characters hitting behind them would create more runs.

 

Homers are his game. He scored only 46 when he didn't drive himself home and drove in only 28 when he did't homer. The walks in reality in his case are more stat padders than actually creating runs.

 

Until 2012, Adam Dunn had never played a full season for a team that finished with a winning record. How many runs he scores is 100% reflective of that fact and 0% reflective of the value in him taking walks.

 

Oh, and players don't get intentionally walked every game. It happens on average one of every three games.

 

[Dick Allen]

Until 2012, Adam Dunn had never played a full season for a team that finished with a winning record. How many runs he scores is 100% reflective of that fact and 0% reflective of the value in him taking walks.

 

Oh, and players don't get intentionally walked every game. It happens on average one of every three games.

If you pay someone $15 million a year, the thought is for him to do the damage, not try leave it up to someone else. If it doesn't translate into runs, its a pretty meaningless event. Not all walks are created equal. If you think with the same line ups if every player walked the exact same time Adam Dunn walked, the runs created would be the same, I think you're way off.

You can get hung up Dunn's walks all you want, but the truth is for most slow footed guys, walks aren't nearly as productive as they are for others. Not that they are totally unproductive, but Adam Dunn walking 105 times isn't nearly as valuable as say Alejandro De Aza walking 105 times.

[cabiness42]

If you pay someone $15 million a year, the thought is for him to do the damage, not try leave it up to someone else. If it doesn't translate into runs, its a pretty meaningless event. Not all walks are created equal. If you think with the same line ups if every player walked the exact same time Adam Dunn walked, the runs created would be the same, I think you're way off.

 

Walking is part of doing the damage. When you walk, you put a runner on base and you don't make an out. I'm not sure I understand your second point. Are you saying that if a different batter had been batting 3rd and had walked the same as Dunn, he would have scored more? I don't even see how that's possible. If Dunn's only chance to score is to drive himself in, then he's on a pretty lousy team that isn't going anywhere with or without him.

[Y2Jimmy0]

If you pay someone $15 million a year, the thought is for him to do the damage, not try leave it up to someone else. If it doesn't translate into runs, its a pretty meaningless event. Not all walks are created equal. If you think with the same line ups if every player walked the exact same time Adam Dunn walked, the runs created would be the same, I think you're way off.

You can get hung up Dunn's walks all you want, but the truth is for most slow footed guys, walks aren't nearly as productive as they are for others. Not that they are totally unproductive, but Adam Dunn walking 105 times isn't nearly as valuable as say Alejandro De Aza walking 105 times.

\

 

 

Did it bother you when Frank Thomas did it? Frank would frequently take a walk instead of driving in a run. I suppose Frank should have been giving himself up to drive and drive in the runs?

[Dick Allen]

Walking is part of doing the damage. When you walk, you put a runner on base and you don't make an out. I'm not sure I understand your second point. Are you saying that if a different batter had been batting 3rd and had walked the same as Dunn, he would have scored more? I don't even see how that's possible. If Dunn's only chance to score is to drive himself in, then he's on a pretty lousy team that isn't going anywhere with or without him.

Dunn can't steal bases and doesn't take extra bases on hits as much as some, therefore, it takes more for him to score than other players with more speed and/or better baserunning instincts and abilities.

 

If the walk doesn't ultimately result in a run or runs, the only damage being done is running up a pitch count and/or turning over a line up, again, not useless, but not as valuable as a better baserunner drawing walks resulting in scoring. Adam Dunn is paid to produce runs. If the walks don't result in runs, they really aren't that big of deal, kind of like having an in his prime Mariano Rivera on the 2012 Astros. And ultimately Dunn's OBP is lacking despite his walks which only get him to first base and only score a run if the bases are loaded.

[bigruss]

Dunn can't steal bases and doesn't take extra bases on hits as much as some, therefore, it takes more for him to score than other players with more speed and/or better baserunning instincts and abilities.

 

If the walk doesn't ultimately result in a run or runs, the only damage being done is running up a pitch count and/or turning over a line up, again, not useless, but not as valuable as a better baserunner drawing walks resulting in scoring. Adam Dunn is paid to produce runs. If the walks don't result in runs, they really aren't that big of deal, kind of like having an in his prime Mariano Rivera on the 2012 Astros. And ultimately Dunn's OBP is lacking despite his walks which only get him to first base and only score a run if the bases are loaded.

If Dunn walks and doesn't score, it isn't his damn fault that the players behind him couldn't capitalize.

[Dick Allen]

\

 

 

Did it bother you when Frank Thomas did it? Frank would frequently take a walk instead of driving in a run. I suppose Frank should have been giving himself up to drive and drive in the runs?

Any comparison between Frank Thomas and Adam Dunn is a joke.

 

Frank was a far better hitter than Adam Dunn, and produced far more runs during his non walk at bats.

 

Personally, I always enjoyed watching Frank hit more than he walked, but the walks were the product of his eye, and other teams' fear

 

Again, I don't think walks are a bad thing, but in the case of Adam Dunn, they aren't nearly as valuable as some make them out to be.

[cabiness42]

Dunn can't steal bases and doesn't take extra bases on hits as much as some, therefore, it takes more for him to score than other players with more speed and/or better baserunning instincts and abilities.

 

If the walk doesn't ultimately result in a run or runs, the only damage being done is running up a pitch count and/or turning over a line up, again, not useless, but not as valuable as a better baserunner drawing walks resulting in scoring. Adam Dunn is paid to produce runs. If the walks don't result in runs, they really aren't that big of deal, kind of like having an in his prime Mariano Rivera on the 2012 Astros. And ultimately Dunn's OBP is lacking despite his walks which only get him to first base and only score a run if the bases are loaded.

 

Running up a pitch count and turning over a lineup is very valuable. Look at how many teams struggle with their bullpens. Also, Dunn bats 3rd instead of 5th or 6th specifically because he walks a lot and needs people behind him to drive him in. You're essentially saying Dunn's value is wasted if the rest of the lineup sucks, which is true. The fix, however, isn't to get rid of Dunn but to have a lineup that doesn't suck.

[Dick Allen]

If Dunn walks and doesn't score, it isn't his damn fault that the players behind him couldn't capitalize.

Maybe not, but then his walks really aren't valuable if they don't result in runs. And it didn't just happen in Chicago. The same thing occurred in Cincinatti, Arizona and Washington. He didn't score much if he didn't drive himself in. The other thing, he doesn't get as many doubles as he used to either. His slugging is down even with the 41 homers. His OBP is down even with leading the league in walks.

 

Adam Dunn is not worth anything near what the Sox are paying him.

[Dick Allen]

Running up a pitch count and turning over a lineup is very valuable. Look at how many teams struggle with their bullpens. Also, Dunn bats 3rd instead of 5th or 6th specifically because he walks a lot and needs people behind him to drive him in. You're essentially saying Dunn's value is wasted if the rest of the lineup sucks, which is true. The fix, however, isn't to get rid of Dunn but to have a lineup that doesn't suck.

He shouldn't be batting 3rd, and if you think Adam Dunn is worth $15 million a year, you should be an agent.

[southsider2k5]

Any comparison between Frank Thomas and Adam Dunn is a joke.

 

Frank was a far better hitter than Adam Dunn, and produced far more runs during his non walk at bats.

 

Personally, I always enjoyed watching Frank hit more than he walked, but the walks were the product of his eye, and other teams' fear

 

Again, I don't think walks are a bad thing, but in the case of Adam Dunn, they aren't nearly as valuable as some make them out to be.

 

If you are comparing the results of their walks, it actually is a valid comparison. They are both very big guys who were very slow. If they are/were going to score after a walk, it will be because the guys hitting behind them drive them in.

[cabiness42]

He shouldn't be batting 3rd, and if you think Adam Dunn is worth $15 million a year, you should be an agent.

 

You could not, right now, sign a free agent who would be more productive than Dunn for $15M a year, whether you like that or not.

 

Somebody who walks as much as Dunn has to bat 3rd, especially in a Sox lineup that is very deficient in OBP.

[IlliniKrush]

Unless you are really really fast, walks don't mean anything. Got it.

[bigruss]

Maybe not, but then his walks really aren't valuable if they don't result in runs. And it didn't just happen in Chicago. The same thing occurred in Cincinatti, Arizona and Washington. He didn't score much if he didn't drive himself in. The other thing, he doesn't get as many doubles as he used to either. His slugging is down even with the 41 homers. His OBP is down even with leading the league in walks.

 

Adam Dunn is not worth anything near what the Sox are paying him.

Right, Dunn needs to steal 2nd, 3rd, and home for a walk to mean something. Stop blaming Dunn for something out of his control.

 

 

[Dick Allen]

Unless you are really really fast, walks don't mean anything. Got it.

You're not paying any attention, but again, that's what you do.

[Dick Allen]

You could not, right now, sign a free agent who would be more productive than Dunn for $15M a year, whether you like that or not.

 

Somebody who walks as much as Dunn has to bat 3rd, especially in a Sox lineup that is very deficient in OBP.

If Adam Dunn were a free agent right now, he would get nowhere near $15 million the next 2 seasons. BTW his .333 OBP you think is so wonderful, is .014 higher than the major league average. So with all his walks, he gets on base 7 times more per 500 plate appearances than the average major leaguer. Not really a 3 hole hitter.

Edited November 2, 2012 by Dick Allen

[bigruss]

If Adam Dunn were a free agent right now, he would get nowhere near $15 million the next 2 seasons.

And if the Sox tried trading Dunn they wouldn't get near his production in replacement.

[Y2Jimmy0]

He shouldn't be batting 3rd, and if you think Adam Dunn is worth $15 million a year, you should be an agent.

 

 

I am assuming you would have Rios bat 3rd then correct? Dunn was on base 220 times in 649 PA's. He made 429 outs on the season. Hit 41 homers and walked 108 times. Rios was on base 219 times in 640 PA's. He made 421 outs on the season. Rios had 184 hits and walked 29 times. Dunn on the other hand only had 110 hits. This is where the walks and HR's come into play. Dunn had a down year and his OBP and OPS were way down. But he still was on base about as much as Rios.

[Dick Allen]

Right, Dunn needs to steal 2nd, 3rd, and home for a walk to mean something. Stop blaming Dunn for something out of his control.

All I have said is walking Adam Dunn isn't as damaging as walking other players. His walk numbers don't translate to as many runs as some would believe. His walks aren't as valuable as when some others walk because it takes more to score him. Walks are the second biggest part of Dunn's offensive arsenal.

Edited November 2, 2012 by Dick Allen

[bigruss]

All I have said is walking Adam Dunn isn't as damaging as walking other players. His walk numbers don't translate to as many runs as some would believe. His walks aren't as valuable as when some others walk because it takes more to score him. Walks are the second biggest part of Dunn's offensive arsenal.

You know what makes Dunn more dangerous when walked? Better hitters behind him.