White Sox projected payroll

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I am pretty sure there is a chart somewhere of all the 2013 and future obligations, but I can't remember where it is. I am just wondering what our 2013 payroll is currently at, so we know how much left he have to spend. I'm guessing a slight bump in payroll, from $97M to about $100M, so I wonder how far away we are from that. I feel like our payroll is going to exceed that without signing anyone new, just based off pay raises.

[southsider2k5]

I think I read somewhere that we are sitting right about $90 with this Peavy deal and Floyd option being picked up.

[Jake]

We have said it will be about the same as last year, though I have some suspicion that if we planned to increase it...we wouldn't say. You know, leverage and stuff.

[NorthSideSox72]

Hahn has said he can win with a 9 figure number. So that means $100M plus.

 

Using the breakdown I had in the other thread and updating it for the Peavy deal, Floyd option and Youk/Myers declines, it looks like this (I think)...

 

OBLIGATED FOR 2013 BY CONTRACT (TOTAL: $96.25M):

Alex Rios: $12.5M

Adam Dunn: $15M

Paul Konerko: $13.5M

Jesse Crain: $4.5M

Matt Thornton; $5.5M

Alexei Ramirez: $7M

John Danks: $14.25M

Jake Peavy: $14.5M

Gavin Floyd: $9.5M

 

BUYOUTS (TOTAL: $4M):

Kevin Youkilis: $1M

Randy Myers: $3M

 

That is $100.25M in obligations for 2013, at this point, by my math. That is without players eligible for arbitration (De Aza, Beckham), and any players in pre-Arb, that will cost about half a million each (Sale, Morel, Flowers, Jones, Reed, Santiago, Axelrod, JorDanks, Marinez, Omogrosso, Quintana, Veal, etc.).

 

Correct me if I am missing anything here.

 

The Sox will either need to boost payroll from last year, or trade some player(s). No other alternative at this point, unless they plan to drop most of those Arb and Pre-Arb guys, which clearly they will not do.

 

 

[Leonard Zelig]

What about Viciedo?

[Jake]

Hahn has said he can win with a 9 figure number. So that means $100M plus.

 

Using the breakdown I had in the other thread and updating it for the Peavy deal, Floyd option and Youk/Myers declines, it looks like this (I think)...

 

OBLIGATED FOR 2013 BY CONTRACT (TOTAL: $96.25M):

Alex Rios: $12.5M

Adam Dunn: $15M

Paul Konerko: $13.5M

Jesse Crain: $4.5M

Matt Thornton; $5.5M

Alexei Ramirez: $7M

John Danks: $14.25M

Jake Peavy: $14.5M

Gavin Floyd: $9.5M

 

BUYOUTS (TOTAL: $4M):

Kevin Youkilis: $1M

Brett Myers: $3M

 

That is $100.25M in obligations for 2013, at this point, by my math. That is without players eligible for arbitration (De Aza, Beckham), and any players in pre-Arb, that will cost about half a million each (Sale, Morel, Flowers, Jones, Reed, Santiago, Axelrod, JorDanks, Marinez, Omogrosso, Quintana, Veal, etc.).

 

Correct me if I am missing anything here.

 

The Sox will either need to boost payroll from last year, or trade some player(s). No other alternative at this point, unless they plan to drop most of those Arb and Pre-Arb guys, which clearly they will not do.

 

While this is trifling a bit, I am fairly certain we are not on the hook for Youk's buyout and perhaps not Myers' either.

 

[Jake]

Hahn has said he can win with a 9 figure number. So that means $100M plus.

 

That's such a funny statement. "I can win with a payroll of less than a billion!"

[NorthSideSox72]

While this is trifling a bit, I am fairly certain we are not on the hook for Youk's buyout and perhaps not Myers' either.

Why not? Boston sent money with Youk, to offset total cost, but I assume that hit the books during the season to offset current obligations. It would be accounting-stupid to hold it with no return then use it on the buyout later, instead of offsetting immediately. Same with Myers.

 

The only way the team isn't on the hook for the buyouts is if the trade SPECIFIED that was the case. Or, if the money sent with the players was MORE than the remaining in-season salary obligations.

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

Alex Rios: $12.5M - also 2013:$12.5M, 2014:$12.5M, 2015:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Adam Dunn: $15M - also 2013:$15M, 2014:$15M

Jesse Crain: $4.5M

Matt Thornton; $5.5M

Alexei Ramirez: $7M - also 2014:$9.5M, 2015:$10M, 2016:$10M club option ($1M buyout)

Gavin Floyd: $9.5M

 

I would be very surprised (and very disappointed as well) if 3 or more of these 6 salaries are still scheduled to be paid in full by the Sox come January. IMO 3 need to be gone, I would hope for at least 4, and in a perfect world we have dropped 5 of the 6 with prospects coming back and with money spent on either a longterm really good FA and/or shorter term reclamation type deals.

 

I think we can definitely contend next year regardless of what we do over the offseason since we're going to have pitching and we'll probably have defense too, but IMO it would be a big mistake to not continue ahead in the same direction we've gone in since the dreaded "all in" debacle.

 

[lasttriptotulsa]

Alex Rios: $12.5M - also 2013:$12.5M, 2014:$12.5M, 2015:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Adam Dunn: $15M - also 2013:$15M, 2014:$15M

Jesse Crain: $4.5M

Matt Thornton; $5.5M

Alexei Ramirez: $7M - also 2014:$9.5M, 2015:$10M, 2016:$10M club option ($1M buyout)

Gavin Floyd: $9.5M

 

I would be very surprised (and very disappointed as well) if 3 or more of these 6 salaries are still scheduled to be paid in full by the Sox come January. IMO 3 need to be gone, I would hope for at least 4, and in a perfect world we have dropped 5 of the 6 with prospects coming back and with money spent on either a longterm really good FA and/or shorter term reclamation type deals.

 

I think we can definitely contend next year regardless of what we do over the offseason since we're going to have pitching and we'll probably have defense too, but IMO it would be a big mistake to not continue ahead in the same direction we've gone in since the dreaded "all in" debacle.

 

You expect to still be able to contend if we dropped 5 of those 6? No chance.

[Jake]

Alex Rios: $12.5M - also 2013:$12.5M, 2014:$12.5M, 2015:$13.5M club option ($1M buyout)

Adam Dunn: $15M - also 2013:$15M, 2014:$15M

Jesse Crain: $4.5M

Matt Thornton; $5.5M

Alexei Ramirez: $7M - also 2014:$9.5M, 2015:$10M, 2016:$10M club option ($1M buyout)

Gavin Floyd: $9.5M

 

I would be very surprised (and very disappointed as well) if 3 or more of these 6 salaries are still scheduled to be paid in full by the Sox come January. IMO 3 need to be gone, I would hope for at least 4, and in a perfect world we have dropped 5 of the 6 with prospects coming back and with money spent on either a longterm really good FA and/or shorter term reclamation type deals.

 

I think we can definitely contend next year regardless of what we do over the offseason since we're going to have pitching and we'll probably have defense too, but IMO it would be a big mistake to not continue ahead in the same direction we've gone in since the dreaded "all in" debacle.

 

I have no idea how you plan on us having a good team without most of those guys. Thornton clearly the most expendable, but each one after him gets very difficult to replace

[2nd_city_saint787]

I have no idea how you plan on us having a good team without most of those guys. Thornton clearly the most expendable, but each one after him gets very difficult to replace

 

Depends on what they get back.

 

If they got back cheap MLB ready talent for say Gavin, Rios, and Matt (3 of the 6 as the previous poster mentioned) then you can still put out a contender.

 

 

 

[The Ultimate Champion]

I have no idea how you plan on us having a good team without most of those guys. Thornton clearly the most expendable, but each one after him gets very difficult to replace

Thornton replaced by Veal

Veal replaced by Septimo/Rodriguez/Leesman/trade/FA/minor league FA/ST invite

Crain at $4.5M replaced by Jones

Jones replaced by a stopgap 1-year cheaper signing that costs nothing in terms of talent; Crain traded for a prospect or other piece

 

The bullpen I wouldn't worry about.

 

Alex & Dunn are no guarantees to be good again, which is why you trade them. You could easily keep both players and have them fail to replace their own 2012 production.

 

Alexei is going to get expensive very quickly, so trading him now would avoid possibly being stuck with a bad immovable contract. Alexei has become more of an Uribe type, i.e. his defense is huge and when he's hot he can carry the team for a while at the bottom of the order, but logic says he'll be losing a step as he gets older, and an average defensive SS who endures major hot and cold spells isn't worth his salary. The question re: Alexei is whether or not Alexei will be worth his contract on the next really good Sox team, and if I had to bet, I'd say no. Just business.

 

I think you could replace all 6 and still contend, definitely. The Royals and Tigers are the only scary teams in the division, but the Royals are buffoons who will mismanage their best players right into trades/free agency, while the Tigers have their own heavy lifting to do and are no guarantee to be some juggernaut.

 

If you cut about $30-35M in those salaries, bring in prospects & projects in those trades, and then sign a couple free agents, you could easily come up with a better team.

 

Perfect example: how about signing Haren to a multi-year deal with Floyd & Thornton's money, and since you have SP locked up for several years now, you can use Santiago + Molina etc. in a deal for an MLB-ready pre-arb SS or 3B to replace what you got offensively & defensively at those positions.

 

With Dunn's money & Alex's money you sign, or take on via trade, a big bat that you can slot in theoretically in either OF corner, 1B or DH. Or, you use Dunn's cash to bring back AJ, have AJ & Tyler & Pauilie split duties at C/1B/DH. You then pick up a couple prospects to deepen the farm for Alex, sign Torii Hunter as a stopgap, and maybe go after a piece like a Cody Ross or Ryan Sweeney as insurance.

 

What about Victorino? Pence? There are lots of options, and Pence, Hunter, and Victorino are noted KW targets. We can get 1 IMO.

 

There are tons of possibilities. We have major, major flexibility this offseason but we need to make smart decisions.

[Leonard Zelig]

Is that spreadsheet Kalapse used to make still up to date and accessible?

Edited October 31, 2012 by Leonard Zelig

[Jake]

It is more uncertain that we could find replacements for those big $ players' production (Dunn, Rios, Alexei) than the uncertainty about whether they'll be as good next year. Especially in the case of Dunn, it is not a stretch to say that he could do better next year. Same with Alexei, though last year turned out not to be a huge departure from his past like it felt it was at first.

 

And no, I don't want Dan Haren and his aching back. We have enough aging injury risks for one staff. With the uncertainty surrounding a bullpen on any yearly basis, I'm not eager to gut it for very marginal cost cutting either. You can hope Jones can match Crain, or you can have both and have very good odds that at least one of them will hold things down late in games. Same with Veal, Thornton on the left side.

[ChiliIrishHammock24]

I'd love to trade Thornton and Floyd, and I wouldn't be against trading Crain. But those are really the only pricey players I wouldn't mind losing.

[cabiness42]

I know Matt Thornton makes a lot for a non-closer, but he's not easily replaceable. His ERA+ the last five seasons: 172, 172, 161, 131, 126. Also, his numbers against righty batters aren't much worse than against lefty batters, so he's that rare lefty reliever who isn't just a LOOGY. Someone said replace Thornton with Veal and that's just silly. Veal will never be anywhere near as valuable as Thornton.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't part with him for the right return, but I'm certainly going to be looking to unload him just to ditch his salary.

 

Of the "big" salaries, the first two I'm looking to unload are Rios and Floyd. Rios because corner OF is one of the easier holes to fill via trade/free agency, and Floyd because there are internal options.

[balfanman]

It is more uncertain that we could find replacements for those big $ players' production (Dunn, Rios, Alexei) than the uncertainty about whether they'll be as good next year. Especially in the case of Dunn, it is not a stretch to say that he could do better next year. Same with Alexei, though last year turned out not to be a huge departure from his past like it felt it was at first.

 

And no, I don't want Dan Haren and his aching back. We have enough aging injury risks for one staff. With the uncertainty surrounding a bullpen on any yearly basis, I'm not eager to gut it for very marginal cost cutting either. You can hope Jones can match Crain, or you can have both and have very good odds that at least one of them will hold things down late in games. Same with Veal, Thornton on the left side.

 

I agree with this post. Sometimes you have to be careful about what you're asking for.

[southsider2k5]

It is more uncertain that we could find replacements for those big $ players' production (Dunn, Rios, Alexei) than the uncertainty about whether they'll be as good next year. Especially in the case of Dunn, it is not a stretch to say that he could do better next year. Same with Alexei, though last year turned out not to be a huge departure from his past like it felt it was at first.

And no, I don't want Dan Haren and his aching back. We have enough aging injury risks for one staff. With the uncertainty surrounding a bullpen on any yearly basis, I'm not eager to gut it for very marginal cost cutting either. You can hope Jones can match Crain, or you can have both and have very good odds that at least one of them will hold things down late in games. Same with Veal, Thornton on the left side.

 

We aren't trading for any veteran starting pitching, unless it is someone like Felix Hernandez. Seeing as the odds of that are very close to zero, we have our starting rotation in the organization, as I post.

[TaylorStSox]

I know Matt Thornton makes a lot for a non-closer, but he's not easily replaceable. His ERA+ the last five seasons: 172, 172, 161, 131, 126. Also, his numbers against righty batters aren't much worse than against lefty batters, so he's that rare lefty reliever who isn't just a LOOGY. Someone said replace Thornton with Veal and that's just silly. Veal will never be anywhere near as valuable as Thornton.

 

I'm not saying I wouldn't part with him for the right return, but I'm certainly going to be looking to unload him just to ditch his salary.

 

Of the "big" salaries, the first two I'm looking to unload are Rios and Floyd. Rios because corner OF is one of the easier holes to fill via trade/free agency, and Floyd because there are internal options.

Thornton's overall numbers always look good, but he's one of the worst candidates when you need a big out. He's a 1 pitch pitcher with a "show me" slider. Veal, on the other hand, is just nasty. I'd be confident replacing a lot of Thornton's workload with Veal.

[The Ultimate Champion]

It is more uncertain that we could find replacements for those big $ players' production (Dunn, Rios, Alexei) than the uncertainty about whether they'll be as good next year. Especially in the case of Dunn, it is not a stretch to say that he could do better next year. Same with Alexei, though last year turned out not to be a huge departure from his past like it felt it was at first.

 

And no, I don't want Dan Haren and his aching back. We have enough aging injury risks for one staff. With the uncertainty surrounding a bullpen on any yearly basis, I'm not eager to gut it for very marginal cost cutting either. You can hope Jones can match Crain, or you can have both and have very good odds that at least one of them will hold things down late in games. Same with Veal, Thornton on the left side.

I strongly, strongly disagree with this.

 

Alex Rios: took the whole 2009 season off mentally, took the 2nd half of 2010 off mentally, took all of 2011 off mentally... how many times do you have to stick your hand in the fire before you realize you're going to get burned. Alex is probably the most talented guy on the team, and I wanted him on the Sox forever before we got him, but if you can unload his salary and pick up something, especially in a strong market for corner OF, you do it. No question. I would have more faith in the 2013 production of several FA OF than I'd have in Alex.

 

Adam Dunn: potentially even more of a headcase than Alex which he showed in 2011. Yes he rebounded, yes he was injured, but we got exactly what we were hoping for with Dunn, which was enough production to hopefully make him movable. If someone will take his salary you do it, again without question.

 

Look at Alexei's contract without the black and white blinders on. Now's the time to move him if you can. Doing it next year might be close to impossible without eating a good amount of the money remaining.

 

The Sox have talent and could contend, but the 2012 season was a step in the right direction as far as adding youth and specifically multi-year controllable players. This team needs a 3-5 year window, not a bunch of 1 year here, 2 years there, etc. stuff we've been getting. The attendance says that, the team age shows that, etc. If the Sox think about 2013 more than 2014-19 this offseason then they haven't learned a thing and deserve all the s*** they'll step in as a result.

 

All I want the Sox to do re: moving salaries is to try to move 3 potentially bad contracts while they still may be able to (Dunn, Alex, and Alexei) while cashing in on far-from-irreplaceable 1 year remaining veterans by moving them for parts/prospects, and then reallocate the funds toward the next 3-5 year window. That's just smart baseball management, nothing more, and as far as I can see, this 2013 team doesn't look good enough to justify ignoring the future for another 1 year run. We were "all in" in 2011-12, we sucked, and now we need a new window.

 

Edit: Also re: Haren, he's exactly the type you target if it's possible. The Sox medical staff is excellent, and if they think they can keep him healthy, it's an awesome buy low opportunity. You'd have a rotation filled out for the next 2-3 years which would allow you target talented SP prospects in A+ or below, and then look for a good pitching prospect to *force* his way into the mix, rather than just handing a job to someone like Castro because you think he may have a pulse.

Edited November 1, 2012 by The Ultimate Champion

[LittleHurt05]

Edit: Also re: Haren, he's exactly the type you target if it's possible. The Sox medical staff is excellent, and if they think they can keep him healthy, it's an awesome buy low opportunity. You'd have a rotation filled out for the next 2-3 years which would allow you target talented SP prospects in A+ or below, and then look for a good pitching prospect to *force* his way into the mix, rather than just handing a job to someone like Castro because you think he may have a pulse.

 

If you trade for Haren and pick up his option, he is due $15.5 million in 2013, then he becomes a free agent. IF he turns it around, then he suddenly is on the market and will command a huge contract.

[The Ultimate Champion]

If you trade for Haren and pick up his option, he is due $15.5 million in 2013, then he becomes a free agent. IF he turns it around, then he suddenly is on the market and will command a huge contract.

I'd trade for him if I thought I could rip up the deal and get him for 2-3 years with a lower base plus incentives.

 

I'm assuming though that his option will be declined & he will be on the block as a FA.

[cabiness42]

Thornton's overall numbers always look good, but he's one of the worst candidates when you need a big out. He's a 1 pitch pitcher with a "show me" slider. Veal, on the other hand, is just nasty. I'd be confident replacing a lot of Thornton's workload with Veal.

 

If getting "one big out" is your number one criteria in a reliever, you'd better find a way to have a 10-man bullpen. You need guys who can pitch entire innings and get both lefties and righties out. Veal and Thornton aren't even comparable as pitchers.

[LittleHurt05]

I'd trade for him if I thought I could rip up the deal and get him for 2-3 years with a lower base plus incentives.

 

I'm assuming though that his option will be declined & he will be on the block as a FA.

 

I just looked it up, the Angels have until tomorrow night to decide if they want to pick up the option or let him become a FA. We will find out soon.