Can the Sox fix the bullpen?

[VAfan]

The Sox finished 2012 at 85-77, the 8th best record in the AL. They were only 3 games behind the Tigers, but 8 games back in the Wild Card standings. With the rotation already mostly set -- Sale, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Quintana/Santiago -- and most of the lineup probably set -- De Aza CF, ?? 3B, Dunn DH/1B, Konerko 1B/DH, Rios RF, Viciedo LF, Flowers C, Ramirez SS, Beckham 2B -- where can the Sox make moves to make the most improvement?

 

It has to be the bullpen.

 

Using Baseball Reference, I looked up our bullpen's performance versus the seven teams ahead of us in W-L records. I'm not going to go into a full-blown analysis of pitching data. I'm just focused on two numbers -- wins and losses in relief. Here's how the teams ranked, by wins over losses in relief, then by fewest bullpen losses.

 

Baltimore 32-11 (93 wins overall, +21 bullpen wins)

Oakland 30-14 (94, +16 bullpen wins)

New York 24-17 (95, +7 bullpen wins)

Texas 21-14 (93, +7 bullpen wins)

Detroit 25-23 (88, +2 bullpen wins)

Chicago 25-25 (85, even)

Los Angeles 19-20 (89, -1 bullpen win)

Tampa Bay 20-21 (90, -1 bullpen win)

 

According to this analysis, our bullpen had the worst performance out of these 8 teams, racking up 25 losses. The only reason we kept reasonably close to the Tigers was because they were the second-worst, with 23 bullpen losses. LA and Tampa Bay basically missed the playoffs because their bullpens also failed too often. LA was 4 games behind Texas, but 6 behind both Oakland and Texas in bullpen losses. Tampa Bay was 3 games behind Baltimore and Texas for a wild card slot, but was 10 and 7 games back in bullpen losses to those teams.

 

It's also obvious that stellar bullpens propelled the otherwise mediocre Orioles and Athletics to 93 and 94 wins, respectively. Baltimore gained an incredible 21 games out of its bullpen, while Oakland gained 16.

 

So, who were our individual pitching culprits?

 

Axelrod 1-0

Bruney 1-0

Crain 2-3

Jones 8-0

Myers 3-4

Ohman 0-2

Reed 3-2

Santiago 2-1

Septimo 0-2

Stewart 1-1

Thornton 4-10

 

It's really two culprits -- Matt Thornton -- who lost 10 games out of the bullpen last year, and Brett Myers -- who lost 4 games in relief in much less duty (35 games to Thornton's 74). No one on the Orioles or A's lost more than 2 games in relief. The Yankees had 7-game loser David Robertson. Joe Nathan lost 5 for Texas. The Angels had several guys who lost 2 and 3 games. Farnsworth and Peralta lost 6 each for Tampa Bay. Villareal lost 5, Valverde lost 4, and three others lost 3 each for the Tigers.

 

This seems to me a place where a team could make up significant ground from one season to the next. For example, the O's were 23-21 in relief in 2011, so they gained 9-1/2 games out of their bullpen. Oakland's bullpen turnaround was even more dramatic, from 15-25 in 2011, to 30-14 in 2012, a gain of 13 games (out of a 20-game overall improvement).

 

Now I'm sure that more than just pitching goes into these bullpen records. The team also has to hit well enough to get wins in relief. And the manager has to call on the right pitcher in the right spots. (The Sox, for example, lost one game when Quintana was lifted in LA in the 9th inning of a 1-0 game when he'd thrown under 80 pitches, and Reed quickly surrendered 2 runs and the game.)

 

But when I look at these records, I wonder why teams don't invest more in their bullpens, which seemingly can make the difference between making the playoffs and watching from home.

 

Is there anything the Sox can do to go from 25-25 out of the bullpen to something like 26-15 or better? They absolutely need to have that if they want to contend in 2013.

 

 

 

 

[2nd_city_saint787]

When your bullpen is basically all rookies you have to expect some bumps in the road. Next year with some experience under their belt they should be better.

 

If Reed can improve I really like the pen. Jones and Veal look like they can be dynamite set up men and you throw in old reliable Jesse Crain and the underrated Thornton and the pen looks fine to me.

 

[southsider2k5]

Fix the pen? The pen is one of the strengths going forward.

[The Ginger Kid]

Great post and very illuminating.

 

I love the guy but I think we've tapped Thornton for all he's worth, unless he wants to master a secondary pitch. Gone are the days when Matt just aced everyone with his fastball. His slider's unreliable and he doesn't like to use it. The game in NY this year was a prime example, when Tex was just fouling off pitch after pitch, timing his heater until boom, he went yard. And FWIW, Reed only gave up the tying run in that game against LA - Matt gave up the winning run and took the loss.

[Rowand44]

We're using win-loss record for bullpen analysis? Yikes...

[greg775]

Great great post. The key, for starters, is to get rid of Thornton and make sure we don't sign Myers. Thornton, quite frankly, is garbage.

[Lemon_44]

We're using win-loss record for bullpen analysis? Yikes...

I think bullpen losses are important.

 

I'm not singling you out but with all the "new" stats, we are told you can't judge a SP by wins and losses, you can't judge RP by wins or losses, saves are supposedly a flawed stat. How are we supposed to know who is a good pitched and who isn't? You can't really go by ERA for RP because one bad outing can skew their ERA. I think I even heard Steve Stone say in a broadcast that you can tell a good pitcher by the number of unearned runs he's allowed.

 

To me, if a SP is 19-7, I don't care what his ERA is. Same with my closer. If he saves 40+ and only 2-3 blown saves, he can have an ERA of 4.5+.

[Paint it Black]

The Sox finished 2012 at 85-77, the 8th best record in the AL. They were only 3 games behind the Tigers, but 8 games back in the Wild Card standings. With the rotation already mostly set -- Sale, Peavy, Danks, Floyd, and Quintana/Santiago -- and most of the lineup probably set -- De Aza CF, ?? 3B, Dunn DH/1B, Konerko 1B/DH, Rios RF, Viciedo LF, Flowers C, Ramirez SS, Beckham 2B -- where can the Sox make moves to make the most improvement?

 

It has to be the bullpen.

 

Using Baseball Reference, I looked up our bullpen's performance versus the seven teams ahead of us in W-L records. I'm not going to go into a full-blown analysis of pitching data. I'm just focused on two numbers -- wins and losses in relief. Here's how the teams ranked, by wins over losses in relief, then by fewest bullpen losses.

 

Baltimore 32-11 (93 wins overall, +21 bullpen wins)

Oakland 30-14 (94, +16 bullpen wins)

New York 24-17 (95, +7 bullpen wins)

Texas 21-14 (93, +7 bullpen wins)

Detroit 25-23 (88, +2 bullpen wins)

Chicago 25-25 (85, even)

Los Angeles 19-20 (89, -1 bullpen win)

Tampa Bay 20-21 (90, -1 bullpen win)

 

According to this analysis, our bullpen had the worst performance out of these 8 teams, racking up 25 losses. The only reason we kept reasonably close to the Tigers was because they were the second-worst, with 23 bullpen losses. LA and Tampa Bay basically missed the playoffs because their bullpens also failed too often. LA was 4 games behind Texas, but 6 behind both Oakland and Texas in bullpen losses. Tampa Bay was 3 games behind Baltimore and Texas for a wild card slot, but was 10 and 7 games back in bullpen losses to those teams.

 

It's also obvious that stellar bullpens propelled the otherwise mediocre Orioles and Athletics to 93 and 94 wins, respectively. Baltimore gained an incredible 21 games out of its bullpen, while Oakland gained 16.

 

So, who were our individual pitching culprits?

 

Axelrod 1-0

Bruney 1-0

Crain 2-3

Jones 8-0

Myers 3-4

Ohman 0-2

Reed 3-2

Santiago 2-1

Septimo 0-2

Stewart 1-1

Thornton 4-10

 

It's really two culprits -- Matt Thornton -- who lost 10 games out of the bullpen last year, and Brett Myers -- who lost 4 games in relief in much less duty (35 games to Thornton's 74). No one on the Orioles or A's lost more than 2 games in relief. The Yankees had 7-game loser David Robertson. Joe Nathan lost 5 for Texas. The Angels had several guys who lost 2 and 3 games. Farnsworth and Peralta lost 6 each for Tampa Bay. Villareal lost 5, Valverde lost 4, and three others lost 3 each for the Tigers.

 

This seems to me a place where a team could make up significant ground from one season to the next. For example, the O's were 23-21 in relief in 2011, so they gained 9-1/2 games out of their bullpen. Oakland's bullpen turnaround was even more dramatic, from 15-25 in 2011, to 30-14 in 2012, a gain of 13 games (out of a 20-game overall improvement).

 

Now I'm sure that more than just pitching goes into these bullpen records. The team also has to hit well enough to get wins in relief. And the manager has to call on the right pitcher in the right spots. (The Sox, for example, lost one game when Quintana was lifted in LA in the 9th inning of a 1-0 game when he'd thrown under 80 pitches, and Reed quickly surrendered 2 runs and the game.)

 

But when I look at these records, I wonder why teams don't invest more in their bullpens, which seemingly can make the difference between making the playoffs and watching from home.

 

Is there anything the Sox can do to go from 25-25 out of the bullpen to something like 26-15 or better? They absolutely need to have that if they want to contend in 2013.

 

 

I think most people here would agree that what the Orioles did this year was a pretty big fluke. Jim Johnson is a low strike out rate closer who allows a lot of balls to be hit. It's not a good recipe for long term success. Moreover, teams sometimes just get lucky with the pen, and it was one of the main strengths of the Orioles. I wouldn't be asking the question of "how can the Sox do what the O's did" because in their case, it was a lot of luck, IMO.

 

I sure as hell know that dumping big money into a bullpen is downright foolish (I'm looking at you, Ned Colletti) and that is something that the Sox don't need to do. I think pen guys are the easiest players to find (because typically they're the worst players on a roster). I couldn't tell you what is in the system that is ready, but the Sox always seem to have the org arms to plug in fill.

 

The pen doesn't concern me this off season. And if Hahn starts spending more money ton pen upgrades we have much bigger problems.

[Quin]

I really like Reed, Jones, and Veal as a future back of the bullpen.

 

But the BP could be just fine if it's this:

 

CL - Reed

SU - Crain

SU - Thornton

MR - Jones

MR - Veal

MR - Myers

LR - Santiago/Axelrod

[southsider2k5]

I can't see Myers coming back. Someone will be paying him solid money to be a starter.

[LittleHurt05]

Bullpens are so hit & miss and fluky that it's not that simple to just "fix".

 

In 2005, the Sox had two garbage set-up men who were unhittable all season.

 

This past season, the Brewers had K-Rod & Axford, who was outstanding in 2011, and neither could finish a save if their life depended on it.

 

I guarantee that if the 2013 Orioles have the same bullpen as this past season, it won't go as well.

[Cali]

The bullpen is an absolute crapshoot from year to year.

 

Trying hard to really upgrade, and just throwing s*** against the wall to see what sticks might pretty much net you the same results...

 

That being said, I hope Thornton gets traded this off-season

[2nd_city_saint787]

I wouldn't mind trading for Brian Wilson though. He'd bring more fans IMO and would solidify the closer spot encase Reed isn't what we thought he was.

 

 

If you get Wilson you can include Reed or Jones in a deal for a 3B.

Edited November 3, 2012 by 2nd_city_saint787

[Dick Allen]

Sox are trying to sign Brandon Mc Carthy. I would guess that would make Flioyd official trade bait.

[Dick Allen]

I wouldn't mind trading for Brian Wilson though. He'd bring more fans IMO and would solidify the closer spot encase Reed isn't what we thought he was.

 

 

If you get Wilson you can include Reed or Jones in a deal for a 3B.

Isn't he a free agent. JR would never let that beard stay as is.

[2nd_city_saint787]

Isn't he a free agent. JR would never let that beard stay as is.

 

 

No, but Romo took the closers role and Casilla is their RH setup man so I venture to believe he's available....Has there ever been a rule against a big beard in the past??

[Dick Allen]

No, but Romo took the closers role and Casilla is their RH setup man so I venture to believe he's available....Has there ever been a rule against a big beard in the past??

He will get non tendered.

[2nd_city_saint787]

He will get non tendered.

 

Lame, they could get a good piece for him.

[southsider2k5]

Sox are trying to sign Brandon Mc Carthy. I would guess that would make Flioyd official trade bait.

 

I love Brandon and all, but why? The guy can't throw a full season.

[2nd_city_saint787]

I love Brandon and all, but why? The guy can't throw a full season.

 

While I agree I guess thats what Hector Santiago is for. If Hectors not in the rotation I want him starting in AAA.

[chw42]

The bullpen clearly wasn't the biggest issue last year. Yeah, Matt Thornton lost 10 games, bad luck hits sometimes. Just like how good luck hits and you vulture 8 wins like Nate Jones.

[cabiness42]

Sox are trying to sign Brandon Mc Carthy. I would guess that would make Flioyd official trade bait.

 

Is he even going to be able to pitch?

[southsider2k5]

While I agree I guess thats what Hector Santiago is for. If Hectors not in the rotation I want him starting in AAA.

 

Not to mention, Brandon is the exact opposite type of pitcher you want in USCF.

[Dick Allen]

Is he even going to be able to pitch?

He supposedly is good to go. Ultimately, And I'm no fan of Gavin Floyd, I think BMac in USCF gives you about what Floyd gives you, which IMO, isn't all that much in the end. But if someone wants to give you something for Floyd, it makes sense bringing McCarthy in. But if you go back a few months, not many here thought Floyd was worth anywhere near his option. Gavin has become a much better pitcher the last month or so just by sitting on his couch. If the BMac price is reasonable and Floyd has value, bring him in. If either of those aren't true, I would imagine he will wind up with another team.

[greg775]

The bullpen clearly wasn't the biggest issue last year. Yeah, Matt Thornton lost 10 games, bad luck hits sometimes. Just like how good luck hits and you vulture 8 wins like Nate Jones.

 

If Sox want Thornton to face one lefty batter, fine, but he's a horrible option for more than one batter IMO. I wish they'd get rid of him.